Mumbai / The indian pepper mart is heading towards deep crisis in the next eight weeks unless export orders doesnt come to india or the exagerated 50,000 mt domestic consumption is not really there but instead still in the high 30 K . India onetime the worlds largest producer and exporter besides the largest consumer of black pepper has been becoming a net importer since last year with local indian farmers who do not want cash as banks dont accept cash without getting satisfied with the source of the money are better off keeping their produces under their beds rather than selling it and holding on to cash which they have no space to park. This years bull run has replenished the stocks in the National Commodity exchanges and warehouses of cash rich people who has invested in pepper mainly in the physical stocks of the exchanges. Now that the six monts maximum validity for tendering deliveries in contracts are getting expired in nearmonth October and November contracts for more than 3000 mt everyone is quizzing how this situation can overcome with no export orders since last eight weeks from industries who require pepper for winter and christmas/Newyear blend requirements other than from overseas traders who were playing with the market and currently struck not knowing what to do with the pepper they have covered thinking all others were short and will come to cover for their requirements. we have seen major exporters tendering physical deliveries in the last two expiry contracts are really eyebrow raising with the kind of volumes they do on exports and top of that delivering in the domestic pepper exchange . Although the total stock with the Comexes is only 4300 mt which is just 15 days export of Vietnam but it is too high for Indian exports of just 1000 mt a month on an average this year and most of it is imported pepper reexported.
According to market sources, there is a propaganda amongst some leading traditional pepper traders that the quality lying in the comexes warehouses are substandard and inferior and that is the reason why exporters are shying away from taking physical deliveries . On maturity in the contracts of National Exchanges.99% of the longs during the teure of the contracts are held by people who do not want even 100 grams of pepper for their use but accumulated positions purely for speculation only on buy calls by new born analysts in various leading commodity broking houses who are making charts and make calls for their livelihood against all fundamentals of the market and many times even do not know how to advise clients to exit once they are in the vicious circle .
The indian pepper futures as expected hit the 4% circuit down limits today the first day after maturing of september contracts with 341 mt spot pepper being picked up by couple of exporters who had little commitments and inturn was delivered by the National Cooperative and hedgers who wanted to free their money with the carry becoming neglible these days .
Indonesia the current cheapest ASTA Black pepper source has reduced their prices to usd 1.96/1.98/lb cfc 1.5 ny where as indian mg-1 asta prices despite todays 4% circuit down limits is usd 2.10/lb cfc 1.5 ny for nearby shipments. Vietnam prices were stable with origin shippers quoting usd 4050 pmt fob HCMC for 500 grams/litre pepper and usd 4300 pmt fob Hcmc for 550 grams/litre pepper. Where as brazilian ASTA pepper has come in line with the Indonesian ASTA pepper prices but the fact is it has become hard to find buyers globally for pepper currently.Indian domestic market is looking for marriages which happen every other day and festivals which are coming only in the second week of November as during marriages and festivals indians simply use plenty of pepper to make the pepper growers happy besides Commonwealth Games beginning in October which will halt the truck movements to and fro from Delhi.
Jennifer Larive/21 SEP 2010 21-30 HRS IST
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Friday, September 17, 2010
Cloves trend
The International Cloves market too is showing a little weakness with Comoros quoting around USD 5100 /- PMT and Zanzibar Cloves new crop also coming down to USD 5300/-pmt and Indonesia is also quoting around USD 6000/- pmt fob levels.
IPRABA Report
IPRABA Report
Fall in Indian pepper futures drags other origins to follow suit
Mumbai/ september 17th/03 45 HRS IST/
The sudden sharp fall in the indian pepper futures of usd 225 pmt and the huge amount of stocks which are going to loose validfity for delivery in the National commodity exchange in the next nine weeks with hardly any export orders and major exporters have sold their stocks in the exchange platform as they could sell their stocks usd 500 pmt above other origins in the international market is mounting pressure on the bulls . The market without any reason has been inflated by muscle and money power with totally wrong propaganda about shortage, biz happening at higher prices with india and new generation analysts who had not seen black pepper contradicting veterans in the trade with little or no information or contacts with any overseas markets has literally wiped the money off from retail and small traders with their very invaluable advices in the form of buy calls.
Indonesia the current threat for all other ASTA Black pepper sellers in the world giving no clue regarding their current years production, carry over from previous years and exports during the year and keep on pressing for orders for september and October is driving buyers away from the market who are on hand to mouth buying.Besides current years crop of 22000 mt the country was having an undeclared carryover stock of 25000- 28000 mt which is quitely being sold off by the Indonesian exporters is the reason why the anticipated squeeze and price rise has not come into play yet.For sept and October shipments Indonesian origin sellers are quoting usd 4100- 4125 fob panjang and Brazil Asta new crop is offered at usd 4300 fob Belem against the current indian price of usd 4500 pmt fob cochin . The strong indian rupee against usd is also making indian prices high in the International market. Vietnam who has been holding on to the levels of usd 4150 pmt for their 500 g/l has dropped the prices to usd 4050 pmt and 550 g/l prices from usd 4350 has been dropped to usd 4220 pmt fob cochin. Since white pepper prices are higher the ASTA sellers are not keen to sell as converting it into white is more rewarding monetary wise for them.
The markets will see life only towards end of november or early december when Indonesia and Brazil slowly retreats from agressive selling after sold enough for the year according to experts in Cochin and we will see prices declining in the coming weeks and the October futures are likely to test Rs 180/kg .
Jennifer Larive
The sudden sharp fall in the indian pepper futures of usd 225 pmt and the huge amount of stocks which are going to loose validfity for delivery in the National commodity exchange in the next nine weeks with hardly any export orders and major exporters have sold their stocks in the exchange platform as they could sell their stocks usd 500 pmt above other origins in the international market is mounting pressure on the bulls . The market without any reason has been inflated by muscle and money power with totally wrong propaganda about shortage, biz happening at higher prices with india and new generation analysts who had not seen black pepper contradicting veterans in the trade with little or no information or contacts with any overseas markets has literally wiped the money off from retail and small traders with their very invaluable advices in the form of buy calls.
Indonesia the current threat for all other ASTA Black pepper sellers in the world giving no clue regarding their current years production, carry over from previous years and exports during the year and keep on pressing for orders for september and October is driving buyers away from the market who are on hand to mouth buying.Besides current years crop of 22000 mt the country was having an undeclared carryover stock of 25000- 28000 mt which is quitely being sold off by the Indonesian exporters is the reason why the anticipated squeeze and price rise has not come into play yet.For sept and October shipments Indonesian origin sellers are quoting usd 4100- 4125 fob panjang and Brazil Asta new crop is offered at usd 4300 fob Belem against the current indian price of usd 4500 pmt fob cochin . The strong indian rupee against usd is also making indian prices high in the International market. Vietnam who has been holding on to the levels of usd 4150 pmt for their 500 g/l has dropped the prices to usd 4050 pmt and 550 g/l prices from usd 4350 has been dropped to usd 4220 pmt fob cochin. Since white pepper prices are higher the ASTA sellers are not keen to sell as converting it into white is more rewarding monetary wise for them.
The markets will see life only towards end of november or early december when Indonesia and Brazil slowly retreats from agressive selling after sold enough for the year according to experts in Cochin and we will see prices declining in the coming weeks and the October futures are likely to test Rs 180/kg .
Jennifer Larive
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Pepper futures to crash more and India will come in line with International Market
Mumbai /15th Sept 2010 04 45 HRS
The Black pepper futures which were put astronomically high by speculators started falling as expected as the maturity of nearmonth september contract is approaching on next Monday.
The speculators whether they are bulls or bears have been playing with the market making the life of genuine pepper traders difficult making the national exchange platform an online casino without any mechanism to check the unfair play .
The government can close down the watchdog as they do not know how to regulate and control the exchange, said a past chairman of a regional bourse, before the entry of National Exchanges the FMC ( Forward Market Commission) used to suck the blood of the regional bourses inspite the bourses were run in a very systamatic manner, he added.
The pepper market in India has been media driven for quite sometime and the wrong informations which were conveyed to the innocent retail investors and general public by some vested interests who were inturn getting severly hurt these days according to our sources.
Even when a pound of pepper was not traded outside the country because of the price difference of usd 400- 500 pmt between indonesia and indian black pepper asta some of the media was giving false hope to many that indian pepper will be sought for exports because the stocks in Indonesia is exhausted and Vietnam finished selling and pepper will be available from that country only in Jan/Feb 2011.
But the fact is Vietnam has exported 7000 mt of pepper in the month of August also and Indonesia 4000 mt where as Indian imports was more than 1500 mt and the exports which included imported material was hardly 1000 mt.
United States of America, the worlds largest importer and user has imported 5630 mt of Black pepper and 602 mt White pepper and is a five year record imports and their total imports for the first seven months of the calendar year for Black pepper is 29,864 mt which again is a record and white pepper 3346 mt and thats the reason why even Indonesia and Brazil who are usd 400- 500 lower than India are not able to sell currently as the coverage by the importers in the United States is pretty decent and no rush is seen from importers to cover even 2011 first quarter.
The indian Black pepper futures is bought and kept by people who do not need a gram for their own use will have to sell off otherwise they will loose their shirt commented a veteran .
There is an old saying in Kerala from where most of the pepper is exported " unless the pepper crosses the seven seas dont play bullish for long otherwise you will be hurt badly".
Even when the British were ruling India the Queen of England got hurt playing with the Black Gold. The first eight months imports of pepper into the country has been 12000 mt where as the exports have been only hardly 10000 mt according to the trade and chamber of commerce so one should keep in mind most of the pepper exported out of the country is not indian origin because of the higher price tags of the country .
There is a potential that the market can drop another usd 200- 300 mt in the indian futures in the coming 6 weeks and india will be in the lime light again with its sterilised pepper for exports for the months of November/December and January 2011 according to the countries top exporter of pepper.
Jennifer La Rive
The Black pepper futures which were put astronomically high by speculators started falling as expected as the maturity of nearmonth september contract is approaching on next Monday.
The speculators whether they are bulls or bears have been playing with the market making the life of genuine pepper traders difficult making the national exchange platform an online casino without any mechanism to check the unfair play .
The government can close down the watchdog as they do not know how to regulate and control the exchange, said a past chairman of a regional bourse, before the entry of National Exchanges the FMC ( Forward Market Commission) used to suck the blood of the regional bourses inspite the bourses were run in a very systamatic manner, he added.
The pepper market in India has been media driven for quite sometime and the wrong informations which were conveyed to the innocent retail investors and general public by some vested interests who were inturn getting severly hurt these days according to our sources.
Even when a pound of pepper was not traded outside the country because of the price difference of usd 400- 500 pmt between indonesia and indian black pepper asta some of the media was giving false hope to many that indian pepper will be sought for exports because the stocks in Indonesia is exhausted and Vietnam finished selling and pepper will be available from that country only in Jan/Feb 2011.
But the fact is Vietnam has exported 7000 mt of pepper in the month of August also and Indonesia 4000 mt where as Indian imports was more than 1500 mt and the exports which included imported material was hardly 1000 mt.
United States of America, the worlds largest importer and user has imported 5630 mt of Black pepper and 602 mt White pepper and is a five year record imports and their total imports for the first seven months of the calendar year for Black pepper is 29,864 mt which again is a record and white pepper 3346 mt and thats the reason why even Indonesia and Brazil who are usd 400- 500 lower than India are not able to sell currently as the coverage by the importers in the United States is pretty decent and no rush is seen from importers to cover even 2011 first quarter.
The indian Black pepper futures is bought and kept by people who do not need a gram for their own use will have to sell off otherwise they will loose their shirt commented a veteran .
There is an old saying in Kerala from where most of the pepper is exported " unless the pepper crosses the seven seas dont play bullish for long otherwise you will be hurt badly".
Even when the British were ruling India the Queen of England got hurt playing with the Black Gold. The first eight months imports of pepper into the country has been 12000 mt where as the exports have been only hardly 10000 mt according to the trade and chamber of commerce so one should keep in mind most of the pepper exported out of the country is not indian origin because of the higher price tags of the country .
There is a potential that the market can drop another usd 200- 300 mt in the indian futures in the coming 6 weeks and india will be in the lime light again with its sterilised pepper for exports for the months of November/December and January 2011 according to the countries top exporter of pepper.
Jennifer La Rive
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Retail Customers Run for Life as Funds Enter In a Big Way In Comexes
Mumbai/30th August 2010/05 00 HRS IST
Entry of funds in Comexes in a big way scares Retail customers as the financially mighty Fund Houses Push and Pull Markets and create Volatility throughout the trading hours even when there are no takers from Domestic Market and Exporters becoming Processors for funds for the rawmaterial either they procure currently or happy enough with the handsome profits they made in the last six months and some exporters have made more than 60% of their investments and winding down the operations waiting for the next oppurtunity when Several thousand tons of Pepper will be losing Validity in the Months of October and November which cannot be revalidated and at current prices reprocesing will be a nightmare as the carry between months is hardly 1%.
Reading stories everyother day in different Business dailies which are tailor made to suit the needs of certain sections and the TV channels trying to emphasize the news they carry is what the market is and it should head to the levels they predict is making Retail Customers most of the time in two minds and many have left the arena. What we see currently is not Pepper Business but the Tug of war between some whom we do not know really in a loose regulated working of Futures Market mechanism said a veteran in the export sector for more than five decades. We have been selling the pepper we have bben collecting to one company in Cochin who are into exports ina very bigway and very active in local business since last 20 years but we are surprised by the cold approach since last 3 months and the company is not buying a kilo of pepper saying no demand all the time; but we caanot understand if thats the case why the market has moved to Inr 210-220 levels for september contract said a trader in Nedumkandam one of the main centers in Idukki for black pepper and cardamom.
Many upcountry dealers have closed their activities on pepper and only a very few left in the field who just cannot the field for reasons of their own. If the regulator is not looking seriously into the way agricommodities are traded in the national Commodity exchanges they are going to have the same fate of regional exchanges commented an ex chairman of a regional commodity bourse. Everyone is trying to shoot the golden goose and trying to take all the golden eggs together he added.
A major section of the exporters feel that they will be back to Biz after the Ramdan or mid October latest whatever be the prices at that time because by that time the inventories availability from heavy mport purchases made in June and july for July and August shipments will be available in the Processing Hub Cochin for process and buyers who have been staying away for sometime will be back to fill in for Christmas and New year.
Anonymous
Entry of funds in Comexes in a big way scares Retail customers as the financially mighty Fund Houses Push and Pull Markets and create Volatility throughout the trading hours even when there are no takers from Domestic Market and Exporters becoming Processors for funds for the rawmaterial either they procure currently or happy enough with the handsome profits they made in the last six months and some exporters have made more than 60% of their investments and winding down the operations waiting for the next oppurtunity when Several thousand tons of Pepper will be losing Validity in the Months of October and November which cannot be revalidated and at current prices reprocesing will be a nightmare as the carry between months is hardly 1%.
Reading stories everyother day in different Business dailies which are tailor made to suit the needs of certain sections and the TV channels trying to emphasize the news they carry is what the market is and it should head to the levels they predict is making Retail Customers most of the time in two minds and many have left the arena. What we see currently is not Pepper Business but the Tug of war between some whom we do not know really in a loose regulated working of Futures Market mechanism said a veteran in the export sector for more than five decades. We have been selling the pepper we have bben collecting to one company in Cochin who are into exports ina very bigway and very active in local business since last 20 years but we are surprised by the cold approach since last 3 months and the company is not buying a kilo of pepper saying no demand all the time; but we caanot understand if thats the case why the market has moved to Inr 210-220 levels for september contract said a trader in Nedumkandam one of the main centers in Idukki for black pepper and cardamom.
Many upcountry dealers have closed their activities on pepper and only a very few left in the field who just cannot the field for reasons of their own. If the regulator is not looking seriously into the way agricommodities are traded in the national Commodity exchanges they are going to have the same fate of regional exchanges commented an ex chairman of a regional commodity bourse. Everyone is trying to shoot the golden goose and trying to take all the golden eggs together he added.
A major section of the exporters feel that they will be back to Biz after the Ramdan or mid October latest whatever be the prices at that time because by that time the inventories availability from heavy mport purchases made in June and july for July and August shipments will be available in the Processing Hub Cochin for process and buyers who have been staying away for sometime will be back to fill in for Christmas and New year.
Anonymous
Spot Pepper shortage taken care by Comex for September requirements and future prices crash
Kochi/27th August 2010/ 05 45 HRS IST Emmar Jay
The actual users who were confronted with almost nil supplies from farmers and local traders finally learned how to meet their requirement of pepper for immediate needs which they missed at 187/- a kg a fortnight ago by clicking the button of the computer and took home 1403 mt at 206 kg from the national comex in the nearmonth contract which matured on Friday the 20th August. The hue and cry of lack of supplies for some time is now over and in the coming months the stocks lying in the National Comexes will be over which was increasing every other week with indian pepper prices currently highest and outpriced in the world market since last 10 weeks . Throughout this year whenever there was an oppurtunity seen on arbitrage investors were buying exchange delivered Mg1 and the supply to the terminal market has been an issue as upcountry traders have become packers and suppliers to Investors which reduced the movement to the main terminal market Cochin. Another reason for the reduced or almost nil arrival is the lower prices published by the price publishing company IPSTA for sometime which was far from real traded prices and upcountry dealers deserting the terminal market market sources said.
Week 33 was an action packed week with Vietnam increasing the prices from usd 3700 fob Hcmc to usd 4050 fob hcmc for their most traded variety 500 g/l and Brazil increased the asking prices of their B1 variety from usd 3800 fob belem to usd 4100 fob Belem and indonesia increasing the asta prices from usd 4150 cnf Newyork to usd 4550 pmt and some shippers were completely withdrawn waiting for more arrivals to come before making further sales. Actually the Indonesian ASTA pepper sellers are very few and they have to take care of the entire crop as almost 90% ofthe crop is sold during the harvest season itself and exportes need cash to rotate stocks. Although the crop is only 22-25000 mt for Black pepper the huge carry over left behind them which is almost same as the crop of 2010 is said to be the reason why Indonesia has become the biggest ASTA grade pepper supplier since last 2 years and this will continue into 2011.The Vietnamese and Indian speculators are holding the Umbrella for the Indonesians to market their pepper comfortably rhis year too, we can understand Vietnam doing so with more than 100,000 mt pepper being out of the country in the first seven months and said to be having only 40,000 mt more and some say 20,000 mt and according to VPA its all over and they are surprised how their estimates went wrong which was very well arrived by a team of experts of VPA consisting of pioneers in the field such as
- KSS Vietnam Co,.Ltd
- Nedspice Vietnam Co,.Ltd
- Domesco JSC
- An Huy B.T Co,.Ltd
- Comco Co,.Ltd
- Maseco JSC
- Nam Viet Co,.Ltd
- Chu Se Pepper Association
-Olam Vietnam Co,.Ltd
- V.K.L Vietnam Co,.Ltd
source http://www.peppervietnam.com/en/news_detail.php?id=5340&id_groupN=32&id_catN=6
- Authorized provincial departments came to the conclusion , the average productivity of main provinces would be 20 – 25% less than previous year. So that the total output will be 90,000 MT ( 20% lower than last year)
Black pepper is in the hands of speculators in all origins and one can see heavy volatility in the physical markets there and in the futures market here and its advisable that retail investors should stay awat from the scene as there is no protection availabe as the market watchdog do not know how to regulate and control the futrues market and its high time the fmc is scrapped and the regulation should be handed over to SEBI otherwise the mechanism will be completely destroyed by misinformers and mighty titans who has no role to play in a commodity which they have not even seen.
Emmar Jay
The actual users who were confronted with almost nil supplies from farmers and local traders finally learned how to meet their requirement of pepper for immediate needs which they missed at 187/- a kg a fortnight ago by clicking the button of the computer and took home 1403 mt at 206 kg from the national comex in the nearmonth contract which matured on Friday the 20th August. The hue and cry of lack of supplies for some time is now over and in the coming months the stocks lying in the National Comexes will be over which was increasing every other week with indian pepper prices currently highest and outpriced in the world market since last 10 weeks . Throughout this year whenever there was an oppurtunity seen on arbitrage investors were buying exchange delivered Mg1 and the supply to the terminal market has been an issue as upcountry traders have become packers and suppliers to Investors which reduced the movement to the main terminal market Cochin. Another reason for the reduced or almost nil arrival is the lower prices published by the price publishing company IPSTA for sometime which was far from real traded prices and upcountry dealers deserting the terminal market market sources said.
Week 33 was an action packed week with Vietnam increasing the prices from usd 3700 fob Hcmc to usd 4050 fob hcmc for their most traded variety 500 g/l and Brazil increased the asking prices of their B1 variety from usd 3800 fob belem to usd 4100 fob Belem and indonesia increasing the asta prices from usd 4150 cnf Newyork to usd 4550 pmt and some shippers were completely withdrawn waiting for more arrivals to come before making further sales. Actually the Indonesian ASTA pepper sellers are very few and they have to take care of the entire crop as almost 90% ofthe crop is sold during the harvest season itself and exportes need cash to rotate stocks. Although the crop is only 22-25000 mt for Black pepper the huge carry over left behind them which is almost same as the crop of 2010 is said to be the reason why Indonesia has become the biggest ASTA grade pepper supplier since last 2 years and this will continue into 2011.The Vietnamese and Indian speculators are holding the Umbrella for the Indonesians to market their pepper comfortably rhis year too, we can understand Vietnam doing so with more than 100,000 mt pepper being out of the country in the first seven months and said to be having only 40,000 mt more and some say 20,000 mt and according to VPA its all over and they are surprised how their estimates went wrong which was very well arrived by a team of experts of VPA consisting of pioneers in the field such as
- KSS Vietnam Co,.Ltd
- Nedspice Vietnam Co,.Ltd
- Domesco JSC
- An Huy B.T Co,.Ltd
- Comco Co,.Ltd
- Maseco JSC
- Nam Viet Co,.Ltd
- Chu Se Pepper Association
-Olam Vietnam Co,.Ltd
- V.K.L Vietnam Co,.Ltd
source http://www.peppervietnam.com/en/news_detail.php?id=5340&id_groupN=32&id_catN=6
- Authorized provincial departments came to the conclusion , the average productivity of main provinces would be 20 – 25% less than previous year. So that the total output will be 90,000 MT ( 20% lower than last year)
Black pepper is in the hands of speculators in all origins and one can see heavy volatility in the physical markets there and in the futures market here and its advisable that retail investors should stay awat from the scene as there is no protection availabe as the market watchdog do not know how to regulate and control the futrues market and its high time the fmc is scrapped and the regulation should be handed over to SEBI otherwise the mechanism will be completely destroyed by misinformers and mighty titans who has no role to play in a commodity which they have not even seen.
Emmar Jay
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Heavy Indian Buying Pushes Indonesian Pepper Prices up by usd 200 pmt
Sham Nair/19th August 2010 /04 45 HRS IST
Spectacular shopping by indian value added industries in Indonesia pushed the Indonesian ASTA Pepper prices from usd 3775 pmt fob panjang to usd usd 4050 pmt fob panjang in 72 hours surprised the USA and European buyers on Wednesday.
With Indian futures exchange suddenly exciting its players since Monday with big propaganda by the media that the country is suddenly having good demand from within the country and outside the country speculators came into play and raised the future delivery prices making holders of spot cargo happy as they had a chance to sell their holdings at a very high price which they missed in late july according to our industrial sources.
"I am astonished with the news like this" said a senior trader in a multinational company "how can India have export enquiries when its prices were outpriced by usd 350- 400 pmt compared to Brazil and Indonesian pepper and the selling centers were trading pepper much below the prices indicated in the terminal market Cochin. Its nothing but speculation let loose and uncontrolled by the market watch dog FMC" alleged the Wyanad Pepper Traders association. "Traders like us who have been making a living only on pepper trade for genrations cant do any biz and like farmer suicides you will know hear pepper trader suicide if the speculators are not properly controlled by the FMC" they said. "They are giving a privillege to handful few who had a super chance to cover their reqirements decently till the end of the year with the 120 days re export days adjusted very rightly with the timely purchases from other countries" .
In Vietnam local players were speculating on physical stocks along with two known Dutch companies who are spreading very bullish reports to have high priced sales for long strings for later positions according to our european trade sources and Indonesia has been an hindrance and they acted in Lampung market also picking up substantial quantities of asta rejections rechristened as Indoneian 500 g/l pepper and some good quantity asta along with indian value added industries making the indonesians rising their asking prices. Brazil is closely monitoring Indonesian activities and orchestrating their sales in a small way as the harvest has not gained momentom yet and Indonesian harvest will be over by the month end or early september. Sri lanka who sold as low as usd 3550 pmt has raised their prices to usd 3700 cfr cochin seeing the indian exchanges move..
Prices reported last night in newyork by various origins were India usd 4600 pmt c& f Indonesia usd 4250 pmt c% f Vietnam asta usd 4650 pmt c& f ( with limited sellers) Vietnam 500 gram 3970 fob hcmc vietnam 550 grams usd 4200 pmt Brazil B2 usd 3800 pmt Brazil B1 usd 3900 fob Belem and BASTA usd 4000 fob belem with no trades reported as USA buyers still on watch and wait mode and lately covering on big dips and keeping sidelined from markets and not carried away by the big moves in Vietnam and Brazil as they have Brazil and Indonesia as their most favoured sellers currently.
Spectacular shopping by indian value added industries in Indonesia pushed the Indonesian ASTA Pepper prices from usd 3775 pmt fob panjang to usd usd 4050 pmt fob panjang in 72 hours surprised the USA and European buyers on Wednesday.
With Indian futures exchange suddenly exciting its players since Monday with big propaganda by the media that the country is suddenly having good demand from within the country and outside the country speculators came into play and raised the future delivery prices making holders of spot cargo happy as they had a chance to sell their holdings at a very high price which they missed in late july according to our industrial sources.
"I am astonished with the news like this" said a senior trader in a multinational company "how can India have export enquiries when its prices were outpriced by usd 350- 400 pmt compared to Brazil and Indonesian pepper and the selling centers were trading pepper much below the prices indicated in the terminal market Cochin. Its nothing but speculation let loose and uncontrolled by the market watch dog FMC" alleged the Wyanad Pepper Traders association. "Traders like us who have been making a living only on pepper trade for genrations cant do any biz and like farmer suicides you will know hear pepper trader suicide if the speculators are not properly controlled by the FMC" they said. "They are giving a privillege to handful few who had a super chance to cover their reqirements decently till the end of the year with the 120 days re export days adjusted very rightly with the timely purchases from other countries" .
In Vietnam local players were speculating on physical stocks along with two known Dutch companies who are spreading very bullish reports to have high priced sales for long strings for later positions according to our european trade sources and Indonesia has been an hindrance and they acted in Lampung market also picking up substantial quantities of asta rejections rechristened as Indoneian 500 g/l pepper and some good quantity asta along with indian value added industries making the indonesians rising their asking prices. Brazil is closely monitoring Indonesian activities and orchestrating their sales in a small way as the harvest has not gained momentom yet and Indonesian harvest will be over by the month end or early september. Sri lanka who sold as low as usd 3550 pmt has raised their prices to usd 3700 cfr cochin seeing the indian exchanges move..
Prices reported last night in newyork by various origins were India usd 4600 pmt c& f Indonesia usd 4250 pmt c% f Vietnam asta usd 4650 pmt c& f ( with limited sellers) Vietnam 500 gram 3970 fob hcmc vietnam 550 grams usd 4200 pmt Brazil B2 usd 3800 pmt Brazil B1 usd 3900 fob Belem and BASTA usd 4000 fob belem with no trades reported as USA buyers still on watch and wait mode and lately covering on big dips and keeping sidelined from markets and not carried away by the big moves in Vietnam and Brazil as they have Brazil and Indonesia as their most favoured sellers currently.
Heavy Indian Buying Pushes Indonesian Pepper Prices up by usd 200 pmt
Sham Nair/19th August 2010 /04 45 HRS IST
Spectacular shopping by indian value added industries in Indonesia pushed the Indonesian ASTA Pepper prices from usd 3775 pmt fob panjang to usd usd 4050 pmt fob panjang in 72 hours surprised the USA and European buyers on Wednesday.
With Indian futures exchange suddenly exciting its players since Monday with big propaganda by the media that the country is suddenly having good demand from within the country and outside the country speculators came into play and raised the future delivery prices making holders of spot cargo happy as they had a chance to sell their holdings at a very high price which they missed in late july according to our industrial sources.
"I am astonished with the news like this" said a senior trader in a multinational company "how can India have export enquiries when its prices were outpriced by usd 350- 400 pmt compared to Brazil and Indonesian pepper and the selling centers were trading pepper much below the prices indicated in the terminal market Cochin. Its nothing but speculation let loose and uncontrolled by the market watch dog FMC" alleged the Wyanad Pepper Traders association. "Traders like us who have been making a living only on pepper trade for genrations cant do any biz and like farmer suicides you will know hear pepper trader suicide if the speculators are not properly controlled by the FMC" they said. "They are giving a privillege to handful few who had a super chance to cover their reqirements decently till the end of the year with the 120 days re export days adjusted very rightly with the timely purchases from other countries" .
In Vietnam local players were speculating on physical stocks along with two known Dutch companies who are spreading very bullish reports to have high priced sales for long strings for later positions according to our european trade sources and Indonesia has been an hindrance and they acted in Lampung market also picking up substantial quantities of asta rejections rechristened as Indoneian 500 g/l pepper and some good quantity asta along with indian value added industries making the indonesians rising their asking prices. Brazil is closely monitoring Indonesian activities and orchestrating their sales in a small way as the harvest has not gained momentom yet and Indonesian harvest will be over by the month end or early september. Sri lanka who sold as low as usd 3550 pmt has raised their prices to usd 3700 cfr cochin seeing the indian exchanges move..
Prices reported last night in newyork by various origins were India usd 4600 pmt c& f Indonesia usd 4250 pmt c% f Vietnam asta usd 4650 pmt c& f ( with limited sellers) Vietnam 500 gram 3970 fob hcmc vietnam 550 grams usd 4200 pmt Brazil B2 usd 3800 pmt Brazil B1 usd 3900 fob Belem and BASTA usd 4000 fob belem with no trades reported as USA buyers still on watch and wait mode and lately covering on big dips and keeping sidelined from markets and not carried away by the big moves in Vietnam and Brazil as they have Brazil and Indonesia as their most favoured sellers currently.
Spectacular shopping by indian value added industries in Indonesia pushed the Indonesian ASTA Pepper prices from usd 3775 pmt fob panjang to usd usd 4050 pmt fob panjang in 72 hours surprised the USA and European buyers on Wednesday.
With Indian futures exchange suddenly exciting its players since Monday with big propaganda by the media that the country is suddenly having good demand from within the country and outside the country speculators came into play and raised the future delivery prices making holders of spot cargo happy as they had a chance to sell their holdings at a very high price which they missed in late july according to our industrial sources.
"I am astonished with the news like this" said a senior trader in a multinational company "how can India have export enquiries when its prices were outpriced by usd 350- 400 pmt compared to Brazil and Indonesian pepper and the selling centers were trading pepper much below the prices indicated in the terminal market Cochin. Its nothing but speculation let loose and uncontrolled by the market watch dog FMC" alleged the Wyanad Pepper Traders association. "Traders like us who have been making a living only on pepper trade for genrations cant do any biz and like farmer suicides you will know hear pepper trader suicide if the speculators are not properly controlled by the FMC" they said. "They are giving a privillege to handful few who had a super chance to cover their reqirements decently till the end of the year with the 120 days re export days adjusted very rightly with the timely purchases from other countries" .
In Vietnam local players were speculating on physical stocks along with two known Dutch companies who are spreading very bullish reports to have high priced sales for long strings for later positions according to our european trade sources and Indonesia has been an hindrance and they acted in Lampung market also picking up substantial quantities of asta rejections rechristened as Indoneian 500 g/l pepper and some good quantity asta along with indian value added industries making the indonesians rising their asking prices. Brazil is closely monitoring Indonesian activities and orchestrating their sales in a small way as the harvest has not gained momentom yet and Indonesian harvest will be over by the month end or early september. Sri lanka who sold as low as usd 3550 pmt has raised their prices to usd 3700 cfr cochin seeing the indian exchanges move..
Prices reported last night in newyork by various origins were India usd 4600 pmt c& f Indonesia usd 4250 pmt c% f Vietnam asta usd 4650 pmt c& f ( with limited sellers) Vietnam 500 gram 3970 fob hcmc vietnam 550 grams usd 4200 pmt Brazil B2 usd 3800 pmt Brazil B1 usd 3900 fob Belem and BASTA usd 4000 fob belem with no trades reported as USA buyers still on watch and wait mode and lately covering on big dips and keeping sidelined from markets and not carried away by the big moves in Vietnam and Brazil as they have Brazil and Indonesia as their most favoured sellers currently.
Monday, August 16, 2010
Indian Pepper remains outpriced but imports surge
Indian Pepper remains outpriced but imports surge
2010/08/16
Kochi/16 th August 2010
Indian Black pepper continue to remain out priced in the international market thanks to the heavy consumption in the domestic market of the spice and infact the country barely produces what it needs and there are no exportable surplus this year according to veterans in the trade. "We expected this scenario earlier this year and began focussing our attention on the domestic front rather than exports" commented the head of a leading Black Pepper exporter who didnt want to divulge his name.
According to the statistics of Chamber of Commerce the country has exported 5,500 mt of the spice in the first four months of the financial year but the import figures were quite alarming which was close to 7,500 mt which means in short, the exporters are not using indian origin Black pepper at all, allowing the domestic prices not to flare up beyond a certain level.
"Although the country has imported 7500 mt in the first four months and more to come till the end of the year I do not think all the pepper we imported are heavy berries used by the grinding industry and possibly 40% of it may be by the grinding industry and rest by the oil and oleoresin industry" said Mr Jojan Malayil of Bafna Enterprises the countrys largest exporter of Indian origin Black pepper. "But the alarming side of it is that we are jobless for almost 9 months in an year and are at the mercy of operators in the national Commodity Exchanges and, new generation experts who give buy and sell calls based on charts" he added. The genuine traditional pepper guys are out of the system said a dealer from Adimaly who is uno of the Kerala pepper supply chain.
With IPC becoming a laughing stock in the past years the new Secretary General is on damage control according to our informations and is trying to put a stop to the nonsensical statistics on carry over, production and exports and balance available crop in producing origins especially in Indonesia and Vietnam who have been misleading the pepper people since last 3 years .
With harvests getting to its peak in Indonesia the prices from there has been dropped to usd 3800 fob Panjang and Brazil where harvest is almost round the corner in the main producing area Para these countries are vying for export orders as cash has become King . The prices from Brazil varies from shipper to shipper and agents from agents. The european claims they have offers of ASTA at USD 3900 fob Belem for August/September shipments the USA Brokers say the lowest they have is usd 4000 pmt but the main broker in Brazil says its all nonesense and may be you can buy at usd 4000 fob Belem but there is no guarantee that it will be shipped if the market is not in the favour of the shipper and one should take nomianl prices of ASTA at usd 4100 pmt fob Belem although there are no buyers at this Juncture.
Mother India the controller and wave setter of prices in the Globe is currently quoting usd 4250 pmt fob cochin for Mg 1 ASTA where as Indonesian ASTA is finding it difficult to find a home today at usd 3800 fob Panjang. Vietnam 500 g/l prices remained strady at usd 3700 pmt fob HCMC during the week and same is the case with ASTA prices which was hovering around usd 4200 pmt fob HCMC. With Bears pressing the markets down in India based on international news, the Indian market is somewhat holding ground with its huge domestic requirement and prices seems to settle between the Rs 180- 185 range for the next four weeks.
Sham Nair
2010/08/16
Kochi/16 th August 2010
Indian Black pepper continue to remain out priced in the international market thanks to the heavy consumption in the domestic market of the spice and infact the country barely produces what it needs and there are no exportable surplus this year according to veterans in the trade. "We expected this scenario earlier this year and began focussing our attention on the domestic front rather than exports" commented the head of a leading Black Pepper exporter who didnt want to divulge his name.
According to the statistics of Chamber of Commerce the country has exported 5,500 mt of the spice in the first four months of the financial year but the import figures were quite alarming which was close to 7,500 mt which means in short, the exporters are not using indian origin Black pepper at all, allowing the domestic prices not to flare up beyond a certain level.
"Although the country has imported 7500 mt in the first four months and more to come till the end of the year I do not think all the pepper we imported are heavy berries used by the grinding industry and possibly 40% of it may be by the grinding industry and rest by the oil and oleoresin industry" said Mr Jojan Malayil of Bafna Enterprises the countrys largest exporter of Indian origin Black pepper. "But the alarming side of it is that we are jobless for almost 9 months in an year and are at the mercy of operators in the national Commodity Exchanges and, new generation experts who give buy and sell calls based on charts" he added. The genuine traditional pepper guys are out of the system said a dealer from Adimaly who is uno of the Kerala pepper supply chain.
With IPC becoming a laughing stock in the past years the new Secretary General is on damage control according to our informations and is trying to put a stop to the nonsensical statistics on carry over, production and exports and balance available crop in producing origins especially in Indonesia and Vietnam who have been misleading the pepper people since last 3 years .
With harvests getting to its peak in Indonesia the prices from there has been dropped to usd 3800 fob Panjang and Brazil where harvest is almost round the corner in the main producing area Para these countries are vying for export orders as cash has become King . The prices from Brazil varies from shipper to shipper and agents from agents. The european claims they have offers of ASTA at USD 3900 fob Belem for August/September shipments the USA Brokers say the lowest they have is usd 4000 pmt but the main broker in Brazil says its all nonesense and may be you can buy at usd 4000 fob Belem but there is no guarantee that it will be shipped if the market is not in the favour of the shipper and one should take nomianl prices of ASTA at usd 4100 pmt fob Belem although there are no buyers at this Juncture.
Mother India the controller and wave setter of prices in the Globe is currently quoting usd 4250 pmt fob cochin for Mg 1 ASTA where as Indonesian ASTA is finding it difficult to find a home today at usd 3800 fob Panjang. Vietnam 500 g/l prices remained strady at usd 3700 pmt fob HCMC during the week and same is the case with ASTA prices which was hovering around usd 4200 pmt fob HCMC. With Bears pressing the markets down in India based on international news, the Indian market is somewhat holding ground with its huge domestic requirement and prices seems to settle between the Rs 180- 185 range for the next four weeks.
Sham Nair
Sunday, August 08, 2010
Pepper to remain flat till mid September
Dear Editor,
London 09th August 2010
With Summer holidays underway in Europe and USA where buyers are away on annual vaccation Black and White pepper which are currently in "Bear Hug" will continue to remain so as the cheer leader India lost steam without finding buyers for pepper at higher levels. Speculators who bought pepper thinking that it was going to hit lifetime high prices like all other commodities were pressed to the wall With Vietnam and Indonesia once again misleading carryforward and production figures for 2010 and was undercutting Indian prices and getting most of the sales for even winter period which was a last resort for indian exporters who are engaged in exporting genuine and pure Malabar Black pepper.Brazil and Indonesia pushed for sales and lowered their price tags below usd 4000 fob Belem/ Panjang couldnt attract many buyers as exporters there for vying sales and some of them even sold below usd 3900 belam for immediate cash and since arrivals peaked up in Lampong exporters were even offering at usd 3925 pmt fob but only for August and september shipments,
India the country which claims to have the highest domestic consumption of 40000- 45000 pmt seems to have dried up available stocks of farmgate as even after prices hitting Indian Rupees 210-215 per kg there was a big reluctance to sell which obviously means two things one is the available stocks are over and the other is the greed continues as all were praying for Inr 200 for a decade and when it came none wanted to sell. The country is still said to be carrying one crop under their bed and not willing to release it as current levels do not seem to be interesting. Meanwhile the monsoon showers has been pretty good so far and the 2011 crop looks promising at this time but it is stilll early as only by October we will get a clear picture. Indonesia the mystery place continue to be the worlds biggest ASTA pepper supplier for 2010 with almost all American orders under their belt and some exporters have quitely sold till the end of the year when indian futures hit the decade high of Rs 220 per kg in the month of july.
Vietnam who projected their exportable surplus for 2010 at 90000 mt have already exported 85000 mt through official custom route and 10000 mt through cross border trades still has 25000 mt according to pessimist exporters and 35000 mt according to optimists but God only knows the real truth and one has to wait till Jan 10 2011 to know the real story.
Sri Lanka the indian neighbour where the new crop is underway are soliciting orders at usd 3700 cnf cochin I(Indian rupees 170.77 per kg ) is still not getting buyers as the indian exporters are heard sitting on a pile of pepper finding no place to sell other than the national commodity exchanges which seems to have depressed the sentiments of the Bulls and markets have fallen to Bear Hug
Emmar Jay for Peppertrade Blog
London 09th August 2010
With Summer holidays underway in Europe and USA where buyers are away on annual vaccation Black and White pepper which are currently in "Bear Hug" will continue to remain so as the cheer leader India lost steam without finding buyers for pepper at higher levels. Speculators who bought pepper thinking that it was going to hit lifetime high prices like all other commodities were pressed to the wall With Vietnam and Indonesia once again misleading carryforward and production figures for 2010 and was undercutting Indian prices and getting most of the sales for even winter period which was a last resort for indian exporters who are engaged in exporting genuine and pure Malabar Black pepper.Brazil and Indonesia pushed for sales and lowered their price tags below usd 4000 fob Belem/ Panjang couldnt attract many buyers as exporters there for vying sales and some of them even sold below usd 3900 belam for immediate cash and since arrivals peaked up in Lampong exporters were even offering at usd 3925 pmt fob but only for August and september shipments,
India the country which claims to have the highest domestic consumption of 40000- 45000 pmt seems to have dried up available stocks of farmgate as even after prices hitting Indian Rupees 210-215 per kg there was a big reluctance to sell which obviously means two things one is the available stocks are over and the other is the greed continues as all were praying for Inr 200 for a decade and when it came none wanted to sell. The country is still said to be carrying one crop under their bed and not willing to release it as current levels do not seem to be interesting. Meanwhile the monsoon showers has been pretty good so far and the 2011 crop looks promising at this time but it is stilll early as only by October we will get a clear picture. Indonesia the mystery place continue to be the worlds biggest ASTA pepper supplier for 2010 with almost all American orders under their belt and some exporters have quitely sold till the end of the year when indian futures hit the decade high of Rs 220 per kg in the month of july.
Vietnam who projected their exportable surplus for 2010 at 90000 mt have already exported 85000 mt through official custom route and 10000 mt through cross border trades still has 25000 mt according to pessimist exporters and 35000 mt according to optimists but God only knows the real truth and one has to wait till Jan 10 2011 to know the real story.
Sri Lanka the indian neighbour where the new crop is underway are soliciting orders at usd 3700 cnf cochin I(Indian rupees 170.77 per kg ) is still not getting buyers as the indian exporters are heard sitting on a pile of pepper finding no place to sell other than the national commodity exchanges which seems to have depressed the sentiments of the Bulls and markets have fallen to Bear Hug
Emmar Jay for Peppertrade Blog
Wednesday, August 04, 2010
Speculation, poor physical market understanding lead to volatility in commodities
THIS ARTICLE DOES NOT RELATE TO PEPPER ITSELF BUT I FIND IT SOMEHOW USEFULL...
Editor
Kunal Bose / Aug 03, 2010, 00:42
It is not anybody’s case that the financial commodities markets are operating in an ideal environment of transparency and regulation. In fact over the years, commodity exchanges in London, New York and Chicago have been pressured to exercise increasingly rigorous control on trade and improve transparency. Exchanges by their very nature are to face waves of speculation. But controls are generally well in place to avoid undermining of markets.
Even then concerns are expressed from time about speculation money routed through hedge funds sending prices of commodities, particularly oil and gas and iron ore on roller coaster rides. The speculative phenomenon has been much in evidence in the last two years. It no doubt has got much to do with the challenges faced by governments cutting across stages of development of the countries they represent – the developed world besides, both Beijing and New Delhi launched major stimulus programmes and any rollback is now to be done judiciously – to meet the challenges of 2008-09 recession. At the micro level, the almost felled industries are to first put their house in order and then return to the growth path.
But surprisingly for all the imperfections of the commodities markets, government attention invariably turns to the financial segment where because of very low interest rates speculators are finding it profitable to keep industrial commodities in warehouses.
To give one example, funds control over 80 per cent of about 4.5 million tonnes of aluminium in London Metal Exchange warehouses. Speculation is the reason why the funds are these days particularly active in commodities. No doubt aluminium and copper will have fared worse had not funds snapped up large volumes of metals in anticipation of future gains.
Moves by funds, call that speculation if you want, leave an impact on the market in the short term. Javier Blas writes in Financial Times that “over the medium term, prices in commodity markets respond largely to murky supply, demand and inventories signals. And here is the problem that policymakers are ignoring to the perils of the world economy.”
Not only does Blas point to the common ignorance of physical commodities markets, but more significantly laments the fact of our “worsening” understanding of these. One reason of our poor appreciation of the physical market is the rapid rise of China, South Korea and India as users (and producers too) of bulk commodities, while, as Blas points out, “the statistical and policymaking system was put in place in the 1960s-1970s” when such countries were not players of much significance.
Unfortunately, the system has not been sufficiently radicalised since to truthfully reflect the shift in production and consumption focus from developed to emerging nations. Growth in industrial commodities has been mostly in the East as high costs of labour and energy and also increasingly rigid environmental laws have caused shrinkages in metals production capacities in the West.
While there has been a major shift in action to the developing world since the mid 1980s as far as industrial commodities are concerned, the agencies to collect and analyse demand, supply and stocks data are still to be appropriately geared to precisely monitor movements there.
In the process we are left with an imperfect understanding of the physical commodities markets and the governments rather inexplicably are staying focussed on financial side of commodities markets. The International Organisation of Securities Commission has now said in a report on ‘Commodities Futures Markets,’ prepared for G20 that the “relative imbalance in the degree of transparency between financial (commodities) markets versus physical markets – which are, ironically, by far, the most transparent markets –obscures analysis of the many complex inputs into commodity prices.”
The play in commodities financial markets cannot but be based on price movements and demand and supply at a particular point in the physical market. However, much to general dismay, tracking of information in the latter remains imperfect. The blame for this is to be laid largely at the door of concerned industries. Blas, therefore, ruefully says, “Industry lacks enthusiasm to improve statistical flow as companies see their intelligence as proprietary information, key to their trading.”
He further makes the point that some of the more than 25 international organisations tracking physical commodities markets are just “hopeless.” And why is there not a world organisation to collect and analyse prices and supply, of now, as volatile a commodity as iron ore, the principal ingredient of steel making? To give an idea of volatility of this mineral, its prices rose by nearly 50 per cent in the first five months of 2010. But as that squeezed the margins of steelmakers who could not pass on the incremental cost to the buyers of the metal, they started destocking iron ore already with them.
Driving down stocks is much in evidence in China, the world’s largest importer of iron ore. The result is, spot prices are falling. In the process, the Baltic Dry Index, which measures chartering rates of large and very large ships is also taking a hit. The world needs to have a better understanding of the physical market.
-------------------------------
Editor
Kunal Bose / Aug 03, 2010, 00:42
It is not anybody’s case that the financial commodities markets are operating in an ideal environment of transparency and regulation. In fact over the years, commodity exchanges in London, New York and Chicago have been pressured to exercise increasingly rigorous control on trade and improve transparency. Exchanges by their very nature are to face waves of speculation. But controls are generally well in place to avoid undermining of markets.
Even then concerns are expressed from time about speculation money routed through hedge funds sending prices of commodities, particularly oil and gas and iron ore on roller coaster rides. The speculative phenomenon has been much in evidence in the last two years. It no doubt has got much to do with the challenges faced by governments cutting across stages of development of the countries they represent – the developed world besides, both Beijing and New Delhi launched major stimulus programmes and any rollback is now to be done judiciously – to meet the challenges of 2008-09 recession. At the micro level, the almost felled industries are to first put their house in order and then return to the growth path.
But surprisingly for all the imperfections of the commodities markets, government attention invariably turns to the financial segment where because of very low interest rates speculators are finding it profitable to keep industrial commodities in warehouses.
To give one example, funds control over 80 per cent of about 4.5 million tonnes of aluminium in London Metal Exchange warehouses. Speculation is the reason why the funds are these days particularly active in commodities. No doubt aluminium and copper will have fared worse had not funds snapped up large volumes of metals in anticipation of future gains.
Moves by funds, call that speculation if you want, leave an impact on the market in the short term. Javier Blas writes in Financial Times that “over the medium term, prices in commodity markets respond largely to murky supply, demand and inventories signals. And here is the problem that policymakers are ignoring to the perils of the world economy.”
Not only does Blas point to the common ignorance of physical commodities markets, but more significantly laments the fact of our “worsening” understanding of these. One reason of our poor appreciation of the physical market is the rapid rise of China, South Korea and India as users (and producers too) of bulk commodities, while, as Blas points out, “the statistical and policymaking system was put in place in the 1960s-1970s” when such countries were not players of much significance.
Unfortunately, the system has not been sufficiently radicalised since to truthfully reflect the shift in production and consumption focus from developed to emerging nations. Growth in industrial commodities has been mostly in the East as high costs of labour and energy and also increasingly rigid environmental laws have caused shrinkages in metals production capacities in the West.
While there has been a major shift in action to the developing world since the mid 1980s as far as industrial commodities are concerned, the agencies to collect and analyse demand, supply and stocks data are still to be appropriately geared to precisely monitor movements there.
In the process we are left with an imperfect understanding of the physical commodities markets and the governments rather inexplicably are staying focussed on financial side of commodities markets. The International Organisation of Securities Commission has now said in a report on ‘Commodities Futures Markets,’ prepared for G20 that the “relative imbalance in the degree of transparency between financial (commodities) markets versus physical markets – which are, ironically, by far, the most transparent markets –obscures analysis of the many complex inputs into commodity prices.”
The play in commodities financial markets cannot but be based on price movements and demand and supply at a particular point in the physical market. However, much to general dismay, tracking of information in the latter remains imperfect. The blame for this is to be laid largely at the door of concerned industries. Blas, therefore, ruefully says, “Industry lacks enthusiasm to improve statistical flow as companies see their intelligence as proprietary information, key to their trading.”
He further makes the point that some of the more than 25 international organisations tracking physical commodities markets are just “hopeless.” And why is there not a world organisation to collect and analyse prices and supply, of now, as volatile a commodity as iron ore, the principal ingredient of steel making? To give an idea of volatility of this mineral, its prices rose by nearly 50 per cent in the first five months of 2010. But as that squeezed the margins of steelmakers who could not pass on the incremental cost to the buyers of the metal, they started destocking iron ore already with them.
Driving down stocks is much in evidence in China, the world’s largest importer of iron ore. The result is, spot prices are falling. In the process, the Baltic Dry Index, which measures chartering rates of large and very large ships is also taking a hit. The world needs to have a better understanding of the physical market.
-------------------------------
Friday, July 30, 2010
Indonesia
Dear Editor,
30/07
Indonesia which until three weeks ago, has been offering black pepper at usd 4500- 4600 a tonne, has suddenly turned out to be the cheapest source of this spice in the world. Thanks to the recent melt-down in its domestic prices, which happened as the wotlds largest oprerator of Black pepper who was buying the farmgrade pepper also competing local exporters withdrew from the market and indeed has become an agressive seller. The harvest is coming to an end contrary to the news of Indian media that the crops in Indonesia is delayed commented one of the top domestic exporter.Though the price crash comes as a boon to exporters, they are, however, cautious about responding to any new contracts for string shipments till the end of the year and are more comfortable in working for nearby shipments and offers are made at usd 4200-4225 pmt cfc 1.5 Ny . It is estimated by the agricultural department that nearly 25,000 tonnes of black pepper would be harvested in the current year although a section feels the crop is only 15000 mt and another section feels the crop is 35000 mt.
The Indian Black Pepper Futures is dominated by bull operators who have made the prices to usd 4650 pmt fob cochin for the Indian variety Mg-1 asta grade making it the worlds most expensive pepper which was well in line with other producing origins till four weeks ago.Thanks to the huge demand by the domestic operators after the prices crossing above Rs 200 per kg in the producing states kerala and karnataka .You can buy Black pepper much cheaper than what it is quoted in Cochin said an exporter.
Though Indian pepper in value-added forms has great demand in the world market, exporters of such products are sourcing their requirements from Indonesia since last ten days as the landed cost of this pepper in Kochi is only Rs 190/-kg and the neighbouring island nations pepper landed cost in kochi is only Rs 185/-per kg., said a Kochi-based exporter. Attracted by lower price, Indian processors have booked about 500-650 tonnes of pepper from Indonesia in the last week. This has surprised the bull operators as some exporters who were heavily long in the indian exchanges physical stocks are likely to deliver it back to the fellow citizens as they have got replacement Rs 25/kg below indian Black pepper for their value addition. With declining demand for the spice from abroad, and increasing prices domestically India has become a net importer of the spice in the first quarter of this financial year according to the statsistics made available by the Cochin Chamber of commerce and industry.
----------------------------------------
30/07
Indonesia which until three weeks ago, has been offering black pepper at usd 4500- 4600 a tonne, has suddenly turned out to be the cheapest source of this spice in the world. Thanks to the recent melt-down in its domestic prices, which happened as the wotlds largest oprerator of Black pepper who was buying the farmgrade pepper also competing local exporters withdrew from the market and indeed has become an agressive seller. The harvest is coming to an end contrary to the news of Indian media that the crops in Indonesia is delayed commented one of the top domestic exporter.Though the price crash comes as a boon to exporters, they are, however, cautious about responding to any new contracts for string shipments till the end of the year and are more comfortable in working for nearby shipments and offers are made at usd 4200-4225 pmt cfc 1.5 Ny . It is estimated by the agricultural department that nearly 25,000 tonnes of black pepper would be harvested in the current year although a section feels the crop is only 15000 mt and another section feels the crop is 35000 mt.
The Indian Black Pepper Futures is dominated by bull operators who have made the prices to usd 4650 pmt fob cochin for the Indian variety Mg-1 asta grade making it the worlds most expensive pepper which was well in line with other producing origins till four weeks ago.Thanks to the huge demand by the domestic operators after the prices crossing above Rs 200 per kg in the producing states kerala and karnataka .You can buy Black pepper much cheaper than what it is quoted in Cochin said an exporter.
Though Indian pepper in value-added forms has great demand in the world market, exporters of such products are sourcing their requirements from Indonesia since last ten days as the landed cost of this pepper in Kochi is only Rs 190/-kg and the neighbouring island nations pepper landed cost in kochi is only Rs 185/-per kg., said a Kochi-based exporter. Attracted by lower price, Indian processors have booked about 500-650 tonnes of pepper from Indonesia in the last week. This has surprised the bull operators as some exporters who were heavily long in the indian exchanges physical stocks are likely to deliver it back to the fellow citizens as they have got replacement Rs 25/kg below indian Black pepper for their value addition. With declining demand for the spice from abroad, and increasing prices domestically India has become a net importer of the spice in the first quarter of this financial year according to the statsistics made available by the Cochin Chamber of commerce and industry.
----------------------------------------
Monday, July 26, 2010
INDIAN PEPPER FUTURES LIKELY TO DROP ANOTHER RS15 PER KG IN TANDEM WITH INTERNATIONAL PEPPER PRICES
The Indian Pepper prices which is currently ruling highest in the world because of its huge domestic consumption is likely to drop heavily from the second week of August according to the indications we receive from overseas markets. The neighbouring island nation whose new crop is ready has become agressive and offering its 525 g/l variety cnf cochin for august shipment at usd 3.950 pkg (Rs 185.49 per kg ) without finding buyers and same is the case with Indonesian new crop which is offered in all directions and from all shippers and resellers at usd 4.30 per kg cfc 1.5 (Rs 201.9 Per kg )New york delivered. Brazil very quitely accepting some deals for august/sept shipments on special payment terms by farmers /exporters who require cash at usd 4.20 per kg. Indian mg1 asta prices are currently the most expensive pepper quoted cfc 1.5 ny at usd 4.850 per kg cfc 1.5 Ny ( Rs 227.73 per kg ) With indian pepper futures dropping almost Rs 200 per ton from last weeks high the hunger for pepper has subsided from north indian speculative traders and they have become sellers to book their lossess in the main northern indian markets Delhi and jaipur. I do not think the current higher prices can sustain for long if no export demands coming to the country and since exporters have physical stocks which are already hedged in the exchange platform might become physical deliveries if the expected overseas demand does not show up; and this scenario will make available more stocks in the system and markets can drop substantially from current levels and move down to 190-192 per kg for nearby August deliveries according to expert analysts in the national commodity exchanges.
Saturday, July 10, 2010
Global Pepper availability seen in Deep Red although Production/Demand Mismatch Minimal
Guestimates of International Pepper community put production at 310000 mt of both Black and white pepper for the year 2010 but where as realistically according to the agronomists of leading spice companies in the world the production was some where in the area of minimum 360000 mt against a requirement of 216000 mt by importing countries and home consumption from origin countries to the tune of 90000 mt. Basically there was no mismatch between demand vs supply figures but what went wrong was the miscalculations in assessing availability of the spice when demand was there. Even today many importers feel that asian economy is not faring well and farming community will have to sell their produce when the harvest comes and they could do nothing but to sell, but in reality the farming community has become so rich and they have no rush to sell and the best example was seen when the new crop in india came this year when the farmers decided not to sell it as they felt the current year they will see Rs 200/kg for sure which they have been anticipating for the last two years and decided to hold back.The Value added industry went in for record imports in the first half of the year so that it will keep them going till October as they are not supposed to keep the imported pepper in the country for not more than 120 days. But many has exhausted their stocks and imports totally become unviable and the pressure on indian stocks mounting with many grinders putting on their hands on the exchange stocks which can make things more worse if the sellers do not honour their commitments by not giving physical deliveries.
Vietnam the worlds largest producer and exporter has put 85000 mt across seven seas of the world, and according to VIetnasm Pepper Association the balance available from that country is only 5000 mt according to the production estimates of 90000 mt they furnished with International pepper community (IPC) But the actual production figures according to trusted agronomists who were putting the figures very correctly since 2002 the production of pepper in the country is in the ranger of AROUND 120000 - 125000mt and carry over stocks of 10000 mt and imports of 5000 mt which will make a smooth sailing to 2011 was what the importing countries thought and what happened today is literal hoarding of the commodity by the worlds largest producer and exporter of the spice to the surprise of many importing countries.
Indonesia who were ruling the Black ASTA grade pepper Biz for quite sometime now , thought that they can do it for one more year and were undercutting Vietnam and Indian ASTA pepper prices by usd 200 pmt for no reason are now caught at the wrong foot with the worlds largest pepper importer and pepper trader very active in Panjang buying directly the aslan( farmgate) grade there by making the life of major exporters difficult and quite unhappy.
Malayasia sevicing their traditional markets Japan, Korea and Taiwan with their small crop has also been importing quite a bit from Vietnam in the first half of the year to avoid supply crunch in their local market.Their prices have been totally out of line for the rest of the world other than Japan, Korea and Taiwan who predominetly using sarawak pepper and they didnt want to change the flavour profile for a few hundred dollars.
India the origin which consumes almost 75% of its production internally for home consumption and the land where they have legalised online Casino by the name National Agri Commodity ExchangesNational multi commodity exchanges was the leader in bringng up prices from usd 2850 pmt fob for asta grade in March to the current usd 4150 pmt fob levels has been behaving pretty decent this week even when Vietnam increased its prices to usd 4650 fob levels hcmc for the asta grade and 500 grams/litre prices to usd 4050 pmt fob levels and Indonesia raising their prices from usd 3700 fob panjang levels to 4100 pmt fob panjang levels on friday and Brazil moving up as high as usd 4200 fob Belem levels with buyers paying up even high as usd 4050- 4100 fob belem for august/september shipments.
The USA market which is the worlds largest single importer has been in a total denail mood has finally showed their faces on Friday and picked up all cheap priced offers from all origins and resellers as they have realised that the situation is getting worse and it will be much worse in the coming weeks and better late than never as the next big crop is seven months away and the origins will continue to squeeze as most of the pepper is still with farmers and not intermediaries.
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Vietnam the worlds largest producer and exporter has put 85000 mt across seven seas of the world, and according to VIetnasm Pepper Association the balance available from that country is only 5000 mt according to the production estimates of 90000 mt they furnished with International pepper community (IPC) But the actual production figures according to trusted agronomists who were putting the figures very correctly since 2002 the production of pepper in the country is in the ranger of AROUND 120000 - 125000mt and carry over stocks of 10000 mt and imports of 5000 mt which will make a smooth sailing to 2011 was what the importing countries thought and what happened today is literal hoarding of the commodity by the worlds largest producer and exporter of the spice to the surprise of many importing countries.
Indonesia who were ruling the Black ASTA grade pepper Biz for quite sometime now , thought that they can do it for one more year and were undercutting Vietnam and Indian ASTA pepper prices by usd 200 pmt for no reason are now caught at the wrong foot with the worlds largest pepper importer and pepper trader very active in Panjang buying directly the aslan( farmgate) grade there by making the life of major exporters difficult and quite unhappy.
Malayasia sevicing their traditional markets Japan, Korea and Taiwan with their small crop has also been importing quite a bit from Vietnam in the first half of the year to avoid supply crunch in their local market.Their prices have been totally out of line for the rest of the world other than Japan, Korea and Taiwan who predominetly using sarawak pepper and they didnt want to change the flavour profile for a few hundred dollars.
India the origin which consumes almost 75% of its production internally for home consumption and the land where they have legalised online Casino by the name National Agri Commodity ExchangesNational multi commodity exchanges was the leader in bringng up prices from usd 2850 pmt fob for asta grade in March to the current usd 4150 pmt fob levels has been behaving pretty decent this week even when Vietnam increased its prices to usd 4650 fob levels hcmc for the asta grade and 500 grams/litre prices to usd 4050 pmt fob levels and Indonesia raising their prices from usd 3700 fob panjang levels to 4100 pmt fob panjang levels on friday and Brazil moving up as high as usd 4200 fob Belem levels with buyers paying up even high as usd 4050- 4100 fob belem for august/september shipments.
The USA market which is the worlds largest single importer has been in a total denail mood has finally showed their faces on Friday and picked up all cheap priced offers from all origins and resellers as they have realised that the situation is getting worse and it will be much worse in the coming weeks and better late than never as the next big crop is seven months away and the origins will continue to squeeze as most of the pepper is still with farmers and not intermediaries.
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Monday, May 03, 2010
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Re: Might pepper prices reach U$D 4,000 level again ?
Dear Editor
USD 4000 for pepper will be achieved in India in the futures delivery prices but hard to achieve in the spot segment . We do not have a shortage of the spice but prices are kept by highly speculative elements in India and again followed by Vietnam for no reason but to get hurt. Indonesians continue to ignore this and go forward and selling at usd 3375- 3400 for July/August/Sept shipments and for nearby shipments Vietnam also willing to sell its ASTA pepper at usd 3375 pmt fob Hcmc. India keeping its price at usd 3800 fob cochin is holding the umbrella for other countries to get the lions share of the world market. In the past one year Indonesia has emerged as the dark horse and Villian not allowing the pepper prices to move beyond a certain level with the agressive marketing by the Bold and Beautiful there by kindling the hopes of the Indian Bulls and Vietnamese Bulls to rally the prices further. If the speculators suddenly leave the scene India will become very competetive immediately in the world market and the prospects of exporting 5000 mt to asta markets will brighten according to major players handling Indian Pepper.
What we see currently is heavy inflow of imported Black pepper from Vietnam,Indonesia and Sri lanka into Cochin in the month of april and more to come in May exporters are staying away from the spot market and some of them still buying and selling future deliveries as the arbitrage is very good .
Its true that many industries need to cover pepper for the second half of the year but are not jumping and waiting patiently to see that prices are settled and since Indonesia is already in the market to sell at usd 3375 pmt fob panjang for july/Aug/Sept shipments which is currently picked up by only Indian value added processors and other importing countries still feel the prices of ASTA pepper will drop to usd 3000 pmt
We are seeing a continued fall in Indian pepper futures and this is likely to continue as the holders are the ones who dont require a gram of pepper for their home use and the sellers are mainly hedgers who has pepper in their own warehouse or in dematted stocks of National Exchanges. Unless and until Indian pepper prices come to export parity exporters are not likely to participate and extend their hand to the falling prices in Indian pepper futures which is currently heading to Indian rupees 142/kg in the second week of May 2010 when the conttracts near for its maturity according to some major analysts
USD 4000 for pepper will be achieved in India in the futures delivery prices but hard to achieve in the spot segment . We do not have a shortage of the spice but prices are kept by highly speculative elements in India and again followed by Vietnam for no reason but to get hurt. Indonesians continue to ignore this and go forward and selling at usd 3375- 3400 for July/August/Sept shipments and for nearby shipments Vietnam also willing to sell its ASTA pepper at usd 3375 pmt fob Hcmc. India keeping its price at usd 3800 fob cochin is holding the umbrella for other countries to get the lions share of the world market. In the past one year Indonesia has emerged as the dark horse and Villian not allowing the pepper prices to move beyond a certain level with the agressive marketing by the Bold and Beautiful there by kindling the hopes of the Indian Bulls and Vietnamese Bulls to rally the prices further. If the speculators suddenly leave the scene India will become very competetive immediately in the world market and the prospects of exporting 5000 mt to asta markets will brighten according to major players handling Indian Pepper.
What we see currently is heavy inflow of imported Black pepper from Vietnam,Indonesia and Sri lanka into Cochin in the month of april and more to come in May exporters are staying away from the spot market and some of them still buying and selling future deliveries as the arbitrage is very good .
Its true that many industries need to cover pepper for the second half of the year but are not jumping and waiting patiently to see that prices are settled and since Indonesia is already in the market to sell at usd 3375 pmt fob panjang for july/Aug/Sept shipments which is currently picked up by only Indian value added processors and other importing countries still feel the prices of ASTA pepper will drop to usd 3000 pmt
We are seeing a continued fall in Indian pepper futures and this is likely to continue as the holders are the ones who dont require a gram of pepper for their home use and the sellers are mainly hedgers who has pepper in their own warehouse or in dematted stocks of National Exchanges. Unless and until Indian pepper prices come to export parity exporters are not likely to participate and extend their hand to the falling prices in Indian pepper futures which is currently heading to Indian rupees 142/kg in the second week of May 2010 when the conttracts near for its maturity according to some major analysts
Might pepper prices reach U$D 4,000 level again ?
Two weeks ago, around 12 April, the market semed to stop its upward path.
For around 5days the prices slided back giving an impression that international
buyers were right in their very cautious policy of wait-and-watch and buying
small and quietly just for immediate needs. However that "pit-stop" was short.
From monday 19 the uprise resumed with an ever growing strengh.
In Brazil prices rose an average of 25-50 dollars per ton per day during the last couple of days.
Are there fundamentals to support such behavior ?
It has been reported since last year that India´s crop will be barely suficient
to local needs: around 50 Kton crop for around 50 Kton local consumption.
Nevertheless India is still an exporter and bear a tradition in some markets
which allows higher prices. In February alone exports were reported at 1,500 mt.
Therefore India is an Importer this year.
Vietnam previewed a strong drop in 2010 production which is said to be
no more than 100,000 ton this year.
Presumably no carryover stocks or very limited from 2009 when exports reached a record of 130,000 ton.
However high export volumes are reported for every month and some anailst estimate that
possibly some 35,000 tons were shipped already.
Vietnamese growers sensed the taste of blood and begun to hold their produce expecting further rise in prices, at a point that some delays/defaults are being reported.
The misterious Indonesia is said to have no more than 10,000 ton left until the
new crop.
Brazil is confirming a very limited availability and drop / delay in his harvest.
Further, as traditional supplier to USA, Brazil may fulfill the american needs
for ASTA grade as no salmonela was reported from this origin.
Time Frame Factor
USA is having trouble with FDA due to recent salmonela issues which is bringing
some thightness and urgency to the market, especially if the importers were
buying cautiosly expecting prices to correct /adjust (drop).
And last but not the less important - the Ramadan hollyday - which is peak of
pepper consumption will start this year before the Indonesian and Brazilian
crops. All these factors put toghether may create a "hole" in the supply
sky-rocketing the pepper prices.
A good deal for speculators who quietly keep some stocks for that moment (if any...)
Editor Peppertrade
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Will the rally in Pepper continue further?
Sham Nair
New Delhi March 28 2010
The current rally which began on 16th March which moved prices up by 20% in all origins have not helped mother India in the export front in capitalising the exports of indian origin Malabar Black Pepper and in fact its going to cause threat in the coming days when the import lobbys pepper hit the shores of cochin which it has bought from Indonesia , Sri Lanka and Vietnam which according to our sources is some thing close to 3000 mt which is al time record high as far as imports are concerned.
Indian malabar asta pepper prices were ruling at usd 2900 - 2950 fob cochin when Srilankan 525 gl peper was offered to cochin at usd 2425 pmt
Indonesian asta pepper was offered usd 2700- 2750 fob Panjang and Vietnam asta pepper pieces were hovering around usd 2575 to 2625 pmt fob Hcmc The current rally has pushed up Indian mg 1 prices to usd 3425 - 3475 pmt where as Indonesian asta prices are still usd 3175 fob Panjang offered on friday and unsold and Brazilian asata usd 3000 fob offered and unsold and Vietnam asta offered usd 3125- 3175 offered and unsold in Newyork market besides srilankan pepper 525 gl offered at usd 2900 cnf cochin offered and unsold on friday which clearly shows the markets are pausing and with long christaian and jewish holidays in the coming two weeks will make markets calmer and quiet. With only 35% harvest of new crop over in Vietnam and still a lot has to hit the market can Vietnam farmers hold back the entire crop and dictate prices is to be seen or other origins will capitalise and take the sales in their books has to be seen.
The sales activities of Indonesia since last year is creating some sort of doubts in the minds of major players wheher Indonesia is a bigger producer of pepper than the publicised Vietnam. As from Idonesia although being the headquarters of International pepper community.all informations about actual crop size, carry over, exports. imports from Vietnam and India everything is kept as a secret which has made the IPC a laughing stock in recent times.
Many buyers need to buy in europe and usa as the sharp increase of 20% has caught them on the wrong foot so a drastic drop in prices are ruled out but a correction is expected before the next rally
New Delhi March 28 2010
The current rally which began on 16th March which moved prices up by 20% in all origins have not helped mother India in the export front in capitalising the exports of indian origin Malabar Black Pepper and in fact its going to cause threat in the coming days when the import lobbys pepper hit the shores of cochin which it has bought from Indonesia , Sri Lanka and Vietnam which according to our sources is some thing close to 3000 mt which is al time record high as far as imports are concerned.
Indian malabar asta pepper prices were ruling at usd 2900 - 2950 fob cochin when Srilankan 525 gl peper was offered to cochin at usd 2425 pmt
Indonesian asta pepper was offered usd 2700- 2750 fob Panjang and Vietnam asta pepper pieces were hovering around usd 2575 to 2625 pmt fob Hcmc The current rally has pushed up Indian mg 1 prices to usd 3425 - 3475 pmt where as Indonesian asta prices are still usd 3175 fob Panjang offered on friday and unsold and Brazilian asata usd 3000 fob offered and unsold and Vietnam asta offered usd 3125- 3175 offered and unsold in Newyork market besides srilankan pepper 525 gl offered at usd 2900 cnf cochin offered and unsold on friday which clearly shows the markets are pausing and with long christaian and jewish holidays in the coming two weeks will make markets calmer and quiet. With only 35% harvest of new crop over in Vietnam and still a lot has to hit the market can Vietnam farmers hold back the entire crop and dictate prices is to be seen or other origins will capitalise and take the sales in their books has to be seen.
The sales activities of Indonesia since last year is creating some sort of doubts in the minds of major players wheher Indonesia is a bigger producer of pepper than the publicised Vietnam. As from Idonesia although being the headquarters of International pepper community.all informations about actual crop size, carry over, exports. imports from Vietnam and India everything is kept as a secret which has made the IPC a laughing stock in recent times.
Many buyers need to buy in europe and usa as the sharp increase of 20% has caught them on the wrong foot so a drastic drop in prices are ruled out but a correction is expected before the next rally
Jupiter Commodities from USA published areport on March 26
Jupiter Commodities from USA published areport on March 26
Black Pepper has continued on the upturn during the week.
The Vietnamese farmers have continued to hold back newcrop arrivals. As prices increased in Vietnam, so did India/Indonesia and Brasil.
Vietnamese traders tried buying aggressively in Vietnam combined with some European and MidEast buying has push levels up and made farmers very wary of selling. Obviously, the buying interest from consuming countries showed up on the doorsteps of the other origins. The activities in all corners, is based on need and not on manipulations.
We feel that the firmer and increasing market shall remain at least through next month provided that buyers remain interested.
We believe that buying shall continue.
This week we saw an average of a 10% increase across the board. Spot USA market remains thin with fresh arrivals/releases being picked up. With the next 2 week holiday schedule it will be interesting see how well the market shall behave itself. White pepper firmer in concert with black but as far as activities are concerned remained lack luster.
Black Pepper has continued on the upturn during the week.
The Vietnamese farmers have continued to hold back newcrop arrivals. As prices increased in Vietnam, so did India/Indonesia and Brasil.
Vietnamese traders tried buying aggressively in Vietnam combined with some European and MidEast buying has push levels up and made farmers very wary of selling. Obviously, the buying interest from consuming countries showed up on the doorsteps of the other origins. The activities in all corners, is based on need and not on manipulations.
We feel that the firmer and increasing market shall remain at least through next month provided that buyers remain interested.
We believe that buying shall continue.
This week we saw an average of a 10% increase across the board. Spot USA market remains thin with fresh arrivals/releases being picked up. With the next 2 week holiday schedule it will be interesting see how well the market shall behave itself. White pepper firmer in concert with black but as far as activities are concerned remained lack luster.
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