Wednesday, September 29, 2010

SMX to launch first global pepper futures contract - What is your opinion ?

The article below might be the most important fact of the year or even of the all the modern history of Pepper Trade worldwide.
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SINGAPORE September 28, 2010(Commodity Online):

Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX) has announced it will launch world’s first international Black Pepper Futures Contract (Contract Symbol: SMPEPPER) platform with physical delivery-based settlement, as its first agricultural commodity derivatives product.

SMX has obtained approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to list SMPEPPER on its trading platform. SMX is at present working with relevant industry partners to create awareness about the new Contract, while collecting their feedback to streamline the physical settlement procedure.

Mr. Thomas J. McMahon, Chief Executive Officer of SMX,commented: “Exhaustive
research and close consultation with key industry players is one of our primary objectives. This latest contract constitutes noteworthy fruition of such efforts.”
“We are listing the most commonly traded grade of Black Pepper, from discussions and partnerships with key exporters and importers both on a regional and global basis. Trading hours will span all major markets, providing exciting opportunities for price discovery leading to global benchmarking. Managing price volatilities is a very crucial factor in agricultural products such as Black Pepper, where markets are unpredictable.

The marketplace seems excited by this latest development, and on our part
agriculture commodity derivatives is a key segment for expansion,” Mr. McMahon added.
Mr. Vijaykumar Iyengar, Managing Director of Agrocorp International Pte
Ltd, said: “Over the last two decades we have witnessed Vietnam overtake India as the world’s largest producer and exporter of Black Pepper. Overall the key producers are still in Asia, while the larger consuming nations are in the West. Such listings by SMX essentially bring all market players to the same table, ensuring efficient price discovery.”

Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Pepper Association, said: “Having a Black Pepper futures contract would give rise to natural price discovery which would benefit the entire value chain participants of Black Pepper.”
Source: Commodity Online



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Thursday, September 23, 2010

Indian Pepper Mart Heading For Serious Trouble

Mumbai / The indian pepper mart is heading towards deep crisis in the next eight weeks unless export orders doesnt come to india or the exagerated 50,000 mt domestic consumption is not really there but instead still in the high 30 K . India onetime the worlds largest producer and exporter besides the largest consumer of black pepper has been becoming a net importer since last year with local indian farmers who do not want cash as banks dont accept cash without getting satisfied with the source of the money are better off keeping their produces under their beds rather than selling it and holding on to cash which they have no space to park. This years bull run has replenished the stocks in the National Commodity exchanges and warehouses of cash rich people who has invested in pepper mainly in the physical stocks of the exchanges. Now that the six monts maximum validity for tendering deliveries in contracts are getting expired in nearmonth October and November contracts for more than 3000 mt everyone is quizzing how this situation can overcome with no export orders since last eight weeks from industries who require pepper for winter and christmas/Newyear blend requirements other than from overseas traders who were playing with the market and currently struck not knowing what to do with the pepper they have covered thinking all others were short and will come to cover for their requirements. we have seen major exporters tendering physical deliveries in the last two expiry contracts are really eyebrow raising with the kind of volumes they do on exports and top of that delivering in the domestic pepper exchange . Although the total stock with the Comexes is only 4300 mt which is just 15 days export of Vietnam but it is too high for Indian exports of just 1000 mt a month on an average this year and most of it is imported pepper reexported.


According to market sources, there is a propaganda amongst some leading traditional pepper traders that the quality lying in the comexes warehouses are substandard and inferior and that is the reason why exporters are shying away from taking physical deliveries . On maturity in the contracts of National Exchanges.99% of the longs during the teure of the contracts are held by people who do not want even 100 grams of pepper for their use but accumulated positions purely for speculation only on buy calls by new born analysts in various leading commodity broking houses who are making charts and make calls for their livelihood against all fundamentals of the market and many times even do not know how to advise clients to exit once they are in the vicious circle .

The indian pepper futures as expected hit the 4% circuit down limits today the first day after maturing of september contracts with 341 mt spot pepper being picked up by couple of exporters who had little commitments and inturn was delivered by the National Cooperative and hedgers who wanted to free their money with the carry becoming neglible these days .

Indonesia the current cheapest ASTA Black pepper source has reduced their prices to usd 1.96/1.98/lb cfc 1.5 ny where as indian mg-1 asta prices despite todays 4% circuit down limits is usd 2.10/lb cfc 1.5 ny for nearby shipments. Vietnam prices were stable with origin shippers quoting usd 4050 pmt fob HCMC for 500 grams/litre pepper and usd 4300 pmt fob Hcmc for 550 grams/litre pepper. Where as brazilian ASTA pepper has come in line with the Indonesian ASTA pepper prices but the fact is it has become hard to find buyers globally for pepper currently.Indian domestic market is looking for marriages which happen every other day and festivals which are coming only in the second week of November as during marriages and festivals indians simply use plenty of pepper to make the pepper growers happy besides Commonwealth Games beginning in October which will halt the truck movements to and fro from Delhi.



Jennifer Larive/21 SEP 2010 21-30 HRS IST

Friday, September 17, 2010

Cloves trend

The International Cloves market too is showing a little weakness with Comoros quoting around USD 5100 /- PMT and Zanzibar Cloves new crop also coming down to USD 5300/-pmt and Indonesia is also quoting around USD 6000/- pmt fob levels.

IPRABA Report

Fall in Indian pepper futures drags other origins to follow suit

Mumbai/ september 17th/03 45 HRS IST/


The sudden sharp fall in the indian pepper futures of usd 225 pmt and the huge amount of stocks which are going to loose validfity for delivery in the National commodity exchange in the next nine weeks with hardly any export orders and major exporters have sold their stocks in the exchange platform as they could sell their stocks usd 500 pmt above other origins in the international market is mounting pressure on the bulls . The market without any reason has been inflated by muscle and money power with totally wrong propaganda about shortage, biz happening at higher prices with india and new generation analysts who had not seen black pepper contradicting veterans in the trade with little or no information or contacts with any overseas markets has literally wiped the money off from retail and small traders with their very invaluable advices in the form of buy calls.

Indonesia the current threat for all other ASTA Black pepper sellers in the world giving no clue regarding their current years production, carry over from previous years and exports during the year and keep on pressing for orders for september and October is driving buyers away from the market who are on hand to mouth buying.Besides current years crop of 22000 mt the country was having an undeclared carryover stock of 25000- 28000 mt which is quitely being sold off by the Indonesian exporters is the reason why the anticipated squeeze and price rise has not come into play yet.For sept and October shipments Indonesian origin sellers are quoting usd 4100- 4125 fob panjang and Brazil Asta new crop is offered at usd 4300 fob Belem against the current indian price of usd 4500 pmt fob cochin . The strong indian rupee against usd is also making indian prices high in the International market. Vietnam who has been holding on to the levels of usd 4150 pmt for their 500 g/l has dropped the prices to usd 4050 pmt and 550 g/l prices from usd 4350 has been dropped to usd 4220 pmt fob cochin. Since white pepper prices are higher the ASTA sellers are not keen to sell as converting it into white is more rewarding monetary wise for them.

The markets will see life only towards end of november or early december when Indonesia and Brazil slowly retreats from agressive selling after sold enough for the year according to experts in Cochin and we will see prices declining in the coming weeks and the October futures are likely to test Rs 180/kg .

Jennifer Larive

Tuesday, September 14, 2010

Pepper futures to crash more and India will come in line with International Market

Mumbai /15th Sept 2010 04 45 HRS




The Black pepper futures which were put astronomically high by speculators started falling as expected as the maturity of nearmonth september contract is approaching on next Monday.

The speculators whether they are bulls or bears have been playing with the market making the life of genuine pepper traders difficult making the national exchange platform an online casino without any mechanism to check the unfair play .

The government can close down the watchdog as they do not know how to regulate and control the exchange, said a past chairman of a regional bourse, before the entry of National Exchanges the FMC ( Forward Market Commission) used to suck the blood of the regional bourses inspite the bourses were run in a very systamatic manner, he added.

The pepper market in India has been media driven for quite sometime and the wrong informations which were conveyed to the innocent retail investors and general public by some vested interests who were inturn getting severly hurt these days according to our sources.

Even when a pound of pepper was not traded outside the country because of the price difference of usd 400- 500 pmt between indonesia and indian black pepper asta some of the media was giving false hope to many that indian pepper will be sought for exports because the stocks in Indonesia is exhausted and Vietnam finished selling and pepper will be available from that country only in Jan/Feb 2011.

But the fact is Vietnam has exported 7000 mt of pepper in the month of August also and Indonesia 4000 mt where as Indian imports was more than 1500 mt and the exports which included imported material was hardly 1000 mt.



United States of America, the worlds largest importer and user has imported 5630 mt of Black pepper and 602 mt White pepper and is a five year record imports and their total imports for the first seven months of the calendar year for Black pepper is 29,864 mt which again is a record and white pepper 3346 mt and thats the reason why even Indonesia and Brazil who are usd 400- 500 lower than India are not able to sell currently as the coverage by the importers in the United States is pretty decent and no rush is seen from importers to cover even 2011 first quarter.



The indian Black pepper futures is bought and kept by people who do not need a gram for their own use will have to sell off otherwise they will loose their shirt commented a veteran .

There is an old saying in Kerala from where most of the pepper is exported " unless the pepper crosses the seven seas dont play bullish for long otherwise you will be hurt badly".

Even when the British were ruling India the Queen of England got hurt playing with the Black Gold. The first eight months imports of pepper into the country has been 12000 mt where as the exports have been only hardly 10000 mt according to the trade and chamber of commerce so one should keep in mind most of the pepper exported out of the country is not indian origin because of the higher price tags of the country .

There is a potential that the market can drop another usd 200- 300 mt in the indian futures in the coming 6 weeks and india will be in the lime light again with its sterilised pepper for exports for the months of November/December and January 2011 according to the countries top exporter of pepper.

Jennifer La Rive

Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Retail Customers Run for Life as Funds Enter In a Big Way In Comexes

Mumbai/30th August 2010/05 00 HRS IST

Entry of funds in Comexes in a big way scares Retail customers as the financially mighty Fund Houses Push and Pull Markets and create Volatility throughout the trading hours even when there are no takers from Domestic Market and Exporters becoming Processors for funds for the rawmaterial either they procure currently or happy enough with the handsome profits they made in the last six months and some exporters have made more than 60% of their investments and winding down the operations waiting for the next oppurtunity when Several thousand tons of Pepper will be losing Validity in the Months of October and November which cannot be revalidated and at current prices reprocesing will be a nightmare as the carry between months is hardly 1%.

Reading stories everyother day in different Business dailies which are tailor made to suit the needs of certain sections and the TV channels trying to emphasize the news they carry is what the market is and it should head to the levels they predict is making Retail Customers most of the time in two minds and many have left the arena. What we see currently is not Pepper Business but the Tug of war between some whom we do not know really in a loose regulated working of Futures Market mechanism said a veteran in the export sector for more than five decades. We have been selling the pepper we have bben collecting to one company in Cochin who are into exports ina very bigway and very active in local business since last 20 years but we are surprised by the cold approach since last 3 months and the company is not buying a kilo of pepper saying no demand all the time; but we caanot understand if thats the case why the market has moved to Inr 210-220 levels for september contract said a trader in Nedumkandam one of the main centers in Idukki for black pepper and cardamom.


Many upcountry dealers have closed their activities on pepper and only a very few left in the field who just cannot the field for reasons of their own. If the regulator is not looking seriously into the way agricommodities are traded in the national Commodity exchanges they are going to have the same fate of regional exchanges commented an ex chairman of a regional commodity bourse. Everyone is trying to shoot the golden goose and trying to take all the golden eggs together he added.

A major section of the exporters feel that they will be back to Biz after the Ramdan or mid October latest whatever be the prices at that time because by that time the inventories availability from heavy mport purchases made in June and july for July and August shipments will be available in the Processing Hub Cochin for process and buyers who have been staying away for sometime will be back to fill in for Christmas and New year.

Anonymous

Spot Pepper shortage taken care by Comex for September requirements and future prices crash

Kochi/27th August 2010/ 05 45 HRS IST Emmar Jay



The actual users who were confronted with almost nil supplies from farmers and local traders finally learned how to meet their requirement of pepper for immediate needs which they missed at 187/- a kg a fortnight ago by clicking the button of the computer and took home 1403 mt at 206 kg from the national comex in the nearmonth contract which matured on Friday the 20th August. The hue and cry of lack of supplies for some time is now over and in the coming months the stocks lying in the National Comexes will be over which was increasing every other week with indian pepper prices currently highest and outpriced in the world market since last 10 weeks . Throughout this year whenever there was an oppurtunity seen on arbitrage investors were buying exchange delivered Mg1 and the supply to the terminal market has been an issue as upcountry traders have become packers and suppliers to Investors which reduced the movement to the main terminal market Cochin. Another reason for the reduced or almost nil arrival is the lower prices published by the price publishing company IPSTA for sometime which was far from real traded prices and upcountry dealers deserting the terminal market market sources said.

Week 33 was an action packed week with Vietnam increasing the prices from usd 3700 fob Hcmc to usd 4050 fob hcmc for their most traded variety 500 g/l and Brazil increased the asking prices of their B1 variety from usd 3800 fob belem to usd 4100 fob Belem and indonesia increasing the asta prices from usd 4150 cnf Newyork to usd 4550 pmt and some shippers were completely withdrawn waiting for more arrivals to come before making further sales. Actually the Indonesian ASTA pepper sellers are very few and they have to take care of the entire crop as almost 90% ofthe crop is sold during the harvest season itself and exportes need cash to rotate stocks. Although the crop is only 22-25000 mt for Black pepper the huge carry over left behind them which is almost same as the crop of 2010 is said to be the reason why Indonesia has become the biggest ASTA grade pepper supplier since last 2 years and this will continue into 2011.The Vietnamese and Indian speculators are holding the Umbrella for the Indonesians to market their pepper comfortably rhis year too, we can understand Vietnam doing so with more than 100,000 mt pepper being out of the country in the first seven months and said to be having only 40,000 mt more and some say 20,000 mt and according to VPA its all over and they are surprised how their estimates went wrong which was very well arrived by a team of experts of VPA consisting of pioneers in the field such as

- KSS Vietnam Co,.Ltd
- Nedspice Vietnam Co,.Ltd
- Domesco JSC
- An Huy B.T Co,.Ltd
- Comco Co,.Ltd
- Maseco JSC
- Nam Viet Co,.Ltd
- Chu Se Pepper Association
-Olam Vietnam Co,.Ltd
- V.K.L Vietnam Co,.Ltd


source http://www.peppervietnam.com/en/news_detail.php?id=5340&id_groupN=32&id_catN=6

- Authorized provincial departments  came to the conclusion , the average productivity of main provinces would be 20 – 25% less than previous year. So that the total output will be 90,000 MT ( 20% lower than last year)

Black pepper is in the hands of speculators in all origins and one can see heavy volatility in the physical markets there and in the futures market here and its advisable that retail investors should stay awat from the scene as there is no protection availabe as the market watchdog do not know how to regulate and control the futrues market and its high time the fmc is scrapped and the regulation should be handed over to SEBI otherwise the mechanism will be completely destroyed by misinformers and mighty titans who has no role to play in a commodity which they have not even seen.

Emmar Jay