Sham Nair
New Delhi March 28 2010
The current rally which began on 16th March which moved prices up by 20% in all origins have not helped mother India in the export front in capitalising the exports of indian origin Malabar Black Pepper and in fact its going to cause threat in the coming days when the import lobbys pepper hit the shores of cochin which it has bought from Indonesia , Sri Lanka and Vietnam which according to our sources is some thing close to 3000 mt which is al time record high as far as imports are concerned.
Indian malabar asta pepper prices were ruling at usd 2900 - 2950 fob cochin when Srilankan 525 gl peper was offered to cochin at usd 2425 pmt
Indonesian asta pepper was offered usd 2700- 2750 fob Panjang and Vietnam asta pepper pieces were hovering around usd 2575 to 2625 pmt fob Hcmc The current rally has pushed up Indian mg 1 prices to usd 3425 - 3475 pmt where as Indonesian asta prices are still usd 3175 fob Panjang offered on friday and unsold and Brazilian asata usd 3000 fob offered and unsold and Vietnam asta offered usd 3125- 3175 offered and unsold in Newyork market besides srilankan pepper 525 gl offered at usd 2900 cnf cochin offered and unsold on friday which clearly shows the markets are pausing and with long christaian and jewish holidays in the coming two weeks will make markets calmer and quiet. With only 35% harvest of new crop over in Vietnam and still a lot has to hit the market can Vietnam farmers hold back the entire crop and dictate prices is to be seen or other origins will capitalise and take the sales in their books has to be seen.
The sales activities of Indonesia since last year is creating some sort of doubts in the minds of major players wheher Indonesia is a bigger producer of pepper than the publicised Vietnam. As from Idonesia although being the headquarters of International pepper community.all informations about actual crop size, carry over, exports. imports from Vietnam and India everything is kept as a secret which has made the IPC a laughing stock in recent times.
Many buyers need to buy in europe and usa as the sharp increase of 20% has caught them on the wrong foot so a drastic drop in prices are ruled out but a correction is expected before the next rally
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Jupiter Commodities from USA published areport on March 26
Jupiter Commodities from USA published areport on March 26
Black Pepper has continued on the upturn during the week.
The Vietnamese farmers have continued to hold back newcrop arrivals. As prices increased in Vietnam, so did India/Indonesia and Brasil.
Vietnamese traders tried buying aggressively in Vietnam combined with some European and MidEast buying has push levels up and made farmers very wary of selling. Obviously, the buying interest from consuming countries showed up on the doorsteps of the other origins. The activities in all corners, is based on need and not on manipulations.
We feel that the firmer and increasing market shall remain at least through next month provided that buyers remain interested.
We believe that buying shall continue.
This week we saw an average of a 10% increase across the board. Spot USA market remains thin with fresh arrivals/releases being picked up. With the next 2 week holiday schedule it will be interesting see how well the market shall behave itself. White pepper firmer in concert with black but as far as activities are concerned remained lack luster.
Black Pepper has continued on the upturn during the week.
The Vietnamese farmers have continued to hold back newcrop arrivals. As prices increased in Vietnam, so did India/Indonesia and Brasil.
Vietnamese traders tried buying aggressively in Vietnam combined with some European and MidEast buying has push levels up and made farmers very wary of selling. Obviously, the buying interest from consuming countries showed up on the doorsteps of the other origins. The activities in all corners, is based on need and not on manipulations.
We feel that the firmer and increasing market shall remain at least through next month provided that buyers remain interested.
We believe that buying shall continue.
This week we saw an average of a 10% increase across the board. Spot USA market remains thin with fresh arrivals/releases being picked up. With the next 2 week holiday schedule it will be interesting see how well the market shall behave itself. White pepper firmer in concert with black but as far as activities are concerned remained lack luster.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
India Today, March 25,2010
Dear Sirs,
Pepper zooms up on speculation and reports of spot pepper buying by exporters. Prices on future deliveries close at its 4 % limits up. Spot pepper finds buyers at higher levels than yday and sensing this, the shorts on futures came forward to cover which imparted the momentum for prices to move upwards. Traders continue to remain in a 'disbelief' kind of a state with this kind of a move. Last 10 days saw markets moving up by about 15 to 17 % on spot and futures.
Higher advises from Vietnam were like fuel to the fire. Market tone at the end of the day is very very firm.
Indian MG I ASTA grade parity at $ 3300 / 3350 PMT FOB Cochin
From www.peppertrade.com.br
Pepper zooms up on speculation and reports of spot pepper buying by exporters. Prices on future deliveries close at its 4 % limits up. Spot pepper finds buyers at higher levels than yday and sensing this, the shorts on futures came forward to cover which imparted the momentum for prices to move upwards. Traders continue to remain in a 'disbelief' kind of a state with this kind of a move. Last 10 days saw markets moving up by about 15 to 17 % on spot and futures.
Higher advises from Vietnam were like fuel to the fire. Market tone at the end of the day is very very firm.
Indian MG I ASTA grade parity at $ 3300 / 3350 PMT FOB Cochin
From www.peppertrade.com.br
India continues to be 3rd largest buyer of Vietnam pepper in March also
New Delhi 25 March 2010
India the largest consumer of pepper as a producing origin somewhere between 40,000 and 50000 mt with an average production of 45000 - 50000 mt annually continue to be the 3rd largest importer of pepper from Vietnam in the first half of march 2010 with 604 mt already destined for India according to the export statistics released in Hochiminh City.
These imports are besides the ones from Indonesia and Sri Lanka which clearly shows that indian origin black pepper exports are becoming thinner and thinner day by day which on one hand is very good as the country shouldnt end up importing pepper for home consumption but on the hand the cochin pepper mafia will continue to sow the fear psychosis weeds on local traders and farmers scaring with them the news of imported pepper flowing freely anywhere in the country.
United States of America stood first with 1050 mt followed by Germany 1046 mt in the first half of march with regard to imports from vietnam which clearly shows the two major importing countries continued requirement of black pepper.
Reports emanating from Vietnam says that India will go to the No 1 spot in the month of April as two arms of multinational companies who are having processing facilities in india have picked up 1000 mt for shipment in March and will be reaching the indian shores by mid april. Now that India has become outpriced in the indian market heavily the usual delivery pickers from the national exchange might abstain from deliveries which can create some pressure towards maturity of April contract.
If the indian speculators continue to keep the future delivery prices at a premium the imports of pepper into the country will create a new record in 2010.
Sham Nair
India the largest consumer of pepper as a producing origin somewhere between 40,000 and 50000 mt with an average production of 45000 - 50000 mt annually continue to be the 3rd largest importer of pepper from Vietnam in the first half of march 2010 with 604 mt already destined for India according to the export statistics released in Hochiminh City.
These imports are besides the ones from Indonesia and Sri Lanka which clearly shows that indian origin black pepper exports are becoming thinner and thinner day by day which on one hand is very good as the country shouldnt end up importing pepper for home consumption but on the hand the cochin pepper mafia will continue to sow the fear psychosis weeds on local traders and farmers scaring with them the news of imported pepper flowing freely anywhere in the country.
United States of America stood first with 1050 mt followed by Germany 1046 mt in the first half of march with regard to imports from vietnam which clearly shows the two major importing countries continued requirement of black pepper.
Reports emanating from Vietnam says that India will go to the No 1 spot in the month of April as two arms of multinational companies who are having processing facilities in india have picked up 1000 mt for shipment in March and will be reaching the indian shores by mid april. Now that India has become outpriced in the indian market heavily the usual delivery pickers from the national exchange might abstain from deliveries which can create some pressure towards maturity of April contract.
If the indian speculators continue to keep the future delivery prices at a premium the imports of pepper into the country will create a new record in 2010.
Sham Nair
Saturday, March 13, 2010
REF: Vietnam is ruling the 2010 World Pepper Market
Dear Mr Editor
Pertaining to the article below would like to make some comments and would request your goodselves to start a discussion forum from pepper lovers and manipulators and speculators why not all stakeholders of the industry.
I think everyone will agree that Vietnam holds the Key of International pricing of Black pepper whether Indonesia and Brazil still trying to compete them with insignificant quantities or indian exchanges play reverse games showing their muscle and money power.
If the VPA managers really orchestrate a clear sales policy Vietnamese farmers and exporters are going to fetch a fantastic return of their produce in 2010. With our sources reporting from Daklak that this year since there is virtually no carry over stocks and most stocks in the hands of farmers unlike previous years when exporters were also holding carryover stocks big arrivals in certain days use to influence the market which resulted in panic selling.
This year such a scenario is not seen and the western world will have to pay the price of the Vietnamese farmers for their pepper if they want it. Indian harvest where almost 50% is over the farmers have harvested and dried it and kept in store and not willing to discuss current prices for any sales activities.
The Hindu Business Line reports out of 7240 mt of pepper exported by Vietnam in the month of January india is the 4th largest importer but quantities and qualities are not mentioned. whether it is bought by oleoresin industries or value addition companies and the respective quantitie are all missing so it is nothing but a fear psychosis treatment for holders of pepper to liquidate by the jewtown based pepper mafia.
When pepper is available at 126 and 127 in rs per kg cannot understand why importers should be importing paying 128 per kg because rupee is strong and its cheap to import. Since the imported pepper has to leave the country in 120 days it does not make this argument good but again an attempt to depress market and corner the commodity.
With regard to EL NINO factor in Brazil so far only your goodselves has brought it up and others seems to not worried and since its your country i am sure that being a seasoned veteran your findings will ultimately prove right.
Best Rgds
Sham Nair
Pertaining to the article below would like to make some comments and would request your goodselves to start a discussion forum from pepper lovers and manipulators and speculators why not all stakeholders of the industry.
I think everyone will agree that Vietnam holds the Key of International pricing of Black pepper whether Indonesia and Brazil still trying to compete them with insignificant quantities or indian exchanges play reverse games showing their muscle and money power.
If the VPA managers really orchestrate a clear sales policy Vietnamese farmers and exporters are going to fetch a fantastic return of their produce in 2010. With our sources reporting from Daklak that this year since there is virtually no carry over stocks and most stocks in the hands of farmers unlike previous years when exporters were also holding carryover stocks big arrivals in certain days use to influence the market which resulted in panic selling.
This year such a scenario is not seen and the western world will have to pay the price of the Vietnamese farmers for their pepper if they want it. Indian harvest where almost 50% is over the farmers have harvested and dried it and kept in store and not willing to discuss current prices for any sales activities.
The Hindu Business Line reports out of 7240 mt of pepper exported by Vietnam in the month of January india is the 4th largest importer but quantities and qualities are not mentioned. whether it is bought by oleoresin industries or value addition companies and the respective quantitie are all missing so it is nothing but a fear psychosis treatment for holders of pepper to liquidate by the jewtown based pepper mafia.
When pepper is available at 126 and 127 in rs per kg cannot understand why importers should be importing paying 128 per kg because rupee is strong and its cheap to import. Since the imported pepper has to leave the country in 120 days it does not make this argument good but again an attempt to depress market and corner the commodity.
With regard to EL NINO factor in Brazil so far only your goodselves has brought it up and others seems to not worried and since its your country i am sure that being a seasoned veteran your findings will ultimately prove right.
Best Rgds
Sham Nair
Monday, March 08, 2010
Vietnam is ruling the 2010 World Pepper Market
The first week of March showed a declining trend in Pepper prices lead by the new crop Vietnamese offers. Nevertheless as the week came to the end, the prices stabilized and are getting firmer.
Reports of good sales from Vietnam new crop to India and Europe show that the buyer´s interest is growing, and there is no fundamented reason for Exporters continue to offer further cheaper prices as Vietnam has no competition at the moment and, possibly, for quite a long time.
India´s crop touched its peak and India´s exports fell around 29% in January reduced to mere 1,500 ton, according a report from Reuters earlier this week.According the Hindu Business Line, " Aggravating their fear further, a report today said the Vietnamese exports in January stood at 7,240 tonnes and India was the third top importer from there, market sources told Business Line. No export demand from overseas, especially the US, was coming to India, of late, and it was being directed towards Vietnam and Indonesia which have been offering lower. A strong rupee against the dollar has made the Indian parity not competitive despite the fall in the futures market, they said."
Brazil is facing a very unfavourable weather since last November / December and the drought may reduce the crop in some 40% in 2010 (click here for more detailed report).
Brazilian exports for 2009 crop, measured between June 2009 and February 2010 were at 28,000 tons, so carryover stock might be estimated in around 6,000 tons, with no possibility of strong reinforcment in June due to the crash of Espirito Santo crop.
Further the Real rate begun to appreciate again, pulling thus the export prices further higher.
Last week, prices at the farm gate ranged from U$D 2,210 monday to U$D2,247 friday.
It is true that some sales happened for as low as U$D 2,550 for B1 550 gl but this was a sporadic occasion for making some cash. The lowest prices in Brazil stood at U$D 2,500 for B2 500gl and U$ 2,625 for B1 560 gl and U$ 2,700 - 2,750 for ASTA. However exporters are not interested in trade at these levels and, need just a tiny reason to increase their prices.
The only threat to Vietnam exporetrs might be poised by Indonesia, since in the last couple of years they increased again their sales in to USA. However their prices stood higher most of the time.
Reported prices average for the week were; Brazil ASTA U$D 2,750, Vietnam 580 gl ASTA U$D 2,900, India MG1 U$D 3,000. Cheaper qualities stood at U$D 2,650 500gl CLEAN from Brazil, U$D 2,350 500gl FAQ from Vietnam.
PEPPERTRADE EDITOR
Reports of good sales from Vietnam new crop to India and Europe show that the buyer´s interest is growing, and there is no fundamented reason for Exporters continue to offer further cheaper prices as Vietnam has no competition at the moment and, possibly, for quite a long time.
India´s crop touched its peak and India´s exports fell around 29% in January reduced to mere 1,500 ton, according a report from Reuters earlier this week.According the Hindu Business Line, " Aggravating their fear further, a report today said the Vietnamese exports in January stood at 7,240 tonnes and India was the third top importer from there, market sources told Business Line. No export demand from overseas, especially the US, was coming to India, of late, and it was being directed towards Vietnam and Indonesia which have been offering lower. A strong rupee against the dollar has made the Indian parity not competitive despite the fall in the futures market, they said."
Brazil is facing a very unfavourable weather since last November / December and the drought may reduce the crop in some 40% in 2010 (click here for more detailed report).
Brazilian exports for 2009 crop, measured between June 2009 and February 2010 were at 28,000 tons, so carryover stock might be estimated in around 6,000 tons, with no possibility of strong reinforcment in June due to the crash of Espirito Santo crop.
Further the Real rate begun to appreciate again, pulling thus the export prices further higher.
Last week, prices at the farm gate ranged from U$D 2,210 monday to U$D2,247 friday.
It is true that some sales happened for as low as U$D 2,550 for B1 550 gl but this was a sporadic occasion for making some cash. The lowest prices in Brazil stood at U$D 2,500 for B2 500gl and U$ 2,625 for B1 560 gl and U$ 2,700 - 2,750 for ASTA. However exporters are not interested in trade at these levels and, need just a tiny reason to increase their prices.
The only threat to Vietnam exporetrs might be poised by Indonesia, since in the last couple of years they increased again their sales in to USA. However their prices stood higher most of the time.
Reported prices average for the week were; Brazil ASTA U$D 2,750, Vietnam 580 gl ASTA U$D 2,900, India MG1 U$D 3,000. Cheaper qualities stood at U$D 2,650 500gl CLEAN from Brazil, U$D 2,350 500gl FAQ from Vietnam.
PEPPERTRADE EDITOR
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