Indian Black Pepper futures likely to crash as farmers decide to Start selling Spot Cargo

OPINION by Sham Nair


Kochi/Mumbai/New Delhi 09 March 2012

Indian Black Pepper futures which increased 40% in less than three weeks with heavy speculative activities by non pepper traders who hand in glove with the exchange and the commodity regulator manipulated the pricing of Black pepper seems to have exit the market transferring the load to retail investors mainly is likely to crash in the coming days .Of course there is a shortage of production of Black pepper in the country but the sharp rise in just 18 days is a case of sheer manipulation according to industry stalwarts. Vietnam the worlds largest producer and exporter is offering Rs 100/- kg below the Indian Pepper prices and still not finding buyers or rather attracting buyers in the European Union and North America who claims to have sufficient stock to cater their needs till June and not in a rush to buy even after seeing the wide difference in pricing . The importers feel that the prices in Vietnam still have to drop another 10% to make it attractive for them and the freak Indian situation is completely discounted by them.Indian futures its matter of time is going to fall like nine pins said a major importer who alone buys 20% of North American requirements .

With multi origin multinationals deciding to deliver the Valid stocks they received in the February deliveries back in March and the validity expired stocks received in February by some of them is reprocessed and deposited in the exchange platform another 3000 mt pepper will be offered for March deliveries this time as most of the traders would like to have a clean book as its the financial year ending for all in the country there are every chances the futures delivery in India nose diving in the coming days and might move back to Rs 360 per kg from the present 439 /kg for April deliveries according to pioneers and veterans in the trade.

With the very wide gap between Indian and Vietnam pepper the value added processors who left the import front a year ago are back with full vigour and before the end of the month about 1000 mt of black pepper is likely to reach in Mumbai/Chennai ports besides Cochin .

In the meanwhile with lack of export orders in hand many Vietnam companies are offering shipments for April and May at a discount is raising the eye brows of many as its heard the flows of new crop is in full swing prices are likely to drop in Vietnam in the coming days by 10,000 VND per kilogram ( usd 500 pmt )



Sham Nair

PEPPER - A MODERATE VIEW

Dear Sir
Good day
Please publish this article.
Best Regards
Quote
Dubai
19/01/2012
International Pepper maket starts showing some signs of life Thanks to report published in the "Vietnam News" 19/01/2012.
The report is self explanatory claiming that Vietnam shall export only 86000 MT of Pepper in year 2012-a 30 pct decrease in production.The reason explained behind this claim is the death of old plants.
It seems very strange that In November 2011 Vietnam Pepper Association has presented his figures upto 110000 tons which itself was objected by independent sources and traders in Lambok.Many reliable sources are of the view that pepper production in Vietnam is not less than 135000 MT for 2012 crop.
For last many weeks pepper has been the most silent spice.In year 2011 Vietnam new crop started @usd4200 fob and comlpeted the upward journey till 8400. exactly double.Then started coming back and stopped at 5500 last week.People were thinking that the price could touch usd5000 or even lesser but some immediate demand before TET holidays and this report has suddenly pumped bullish sentiments in the market.
Even the cheapest market Dubai has improvment that had already reached 5200 level this week.
Will it continue.Thats a question?
If we check some years history its evident that people stops shopping 3-4 months before Vietnam new crop arrival and after Tet holidays when Vietnamese resume their business activities thay see a lot of demand and immediately raise the prices.This year the story is not much different but with one change.Consuming markets are not not empty.Middle east and even Europe has pepper.Though the traders are showing reluctance in releasing the high priced cargo but its the fact pepper is there unlike last year.
People need to show some patience in their shopping if they want to make market suitable for all the stakeholders of the industry.If they trust in baseless reports and rumours ,it will repeat last years result .Defaults for low priced contracts and losses in high priced goods.
We shall have to see fundamentals too.
1-The supply for 2012 is not meagre.
2-There is no supply demand mismatch for pepper in 2012.
3-Economic conditions in Europe and all over the world are not remarkable.
4-All other agriculture commodities and specially spices have been travelling fast to South.Like Cardamom has 75 pct drop .In the same way cloves 50 pct,Cummin 30 pct .In other commodities Rice ,wheat,sugar all have lost much.
So one must be careful in giving bids.

Thanks and best Regards
Muhammad Asif Qureshi
General Manager
Commodity King Traders LLC
Nuts & Spices Agent
Member
INC(International Nut &Driedfruit Council)
CENTA(The Combined Edible Nut Trade Association,UK )

Sham Nair: M&M Disturbs Indian Pepper Trade

Kochi/Mumbai/New Delhi /10/ 01 2012 02 HRS IST

Muscle and Money Power play by non Pepper operators since last Nine months is disturbing the Indian pepper trade according to cross sections of the trade from various parts of the country.
Mr Lukose Mathew of Kottarakara a leading collector from various farmers said that he is getting out of the pepper business which he was doing since last 30 years as he cannot afford to loose any more as the recent volatility created by non pepper operators are forcing traditional pepper players like him to exit the Business. We have to buy every day whatever the farmers bring and it will take two weeks to collect 3mt or 5 mt quantity and currently in three trading working days the futures market is pushed down by Rs25/- Rs 30/- kg making it impossible for me to turn around the stocks as once the futures drop the exporters completely withdraw and doesn't even quote any prices still the market stabilises and they even don't buy when the market moves up drastically.

The current scenario in India is ,from 65 exporters in the 1980's the number has shrunk to very few whom you can count down finger tips and they are all very seasoned and none of them play short and doesn't get excited when the market goes down or up and doesn't care what the speculative groups do. According to a senior Manager of a multinational company the excessive speculations are happening with the blessings of the exchange authorities and the toothless watchdog with blind eyes.

Its high time the Government of India brings the commodities also under the securities watch dog SEBI which is performing a wonderful job in this country and shut down the commodities watch dog Forward Market Commission.

Mr Kunal Shah a trader from Nagpur said he is trying to keep away from spices in which futures Gambling Licence is given in India.
When there is a free flow of the spice the prices are pushed up unnecessarily and when its supply is tight the futures are pushed down drastically and certain times even Rs 20/- 30/ Kg than in tandem price discovered by special experts of spot raw pepper sitting in the alley of old spice market Jew Town in Cochin.Some of the experts say its Circular trading happening in the exchange by a group who has cornered the commodity and some others say its the exchange itself playing the market up and down and triggering stop losses to show the inflated turnovers in the exchange.

The India Pepper and Spice Trade Association the pioneers in the futures trade of Pepper for fifty years conducted it very beautifully and systematically and the exchange itself had the tools in hand to control money and muscle play but with the entry of national exchanges it got buried and has become a part of the history due to the vested interests of a very few orthodox traders.

The traditional small, medium and large pepper traders have lost interest in the system and is keeping away from the activities of the unregulated futures trade in the country where Muscle and Money are in play with the blessings of the exchange and its watchdog.

Meanwhile in the last 16 days future delivery prices of January contracts have fell by Rs 56/-kg and the in tandem discovered price of raw pepper by Rs 38/-kg and the cheapest origin of Black pepper in the world India has become more cheap but the expected volumes are not happening is one thing which has to be investigated in detail as the manipulators/operators are playing with 5000 mt of spot pepper which is not even the volumes of 2 major exporters in a month from Vietnam and which can suddenly change hands to smart exporters there by putting an end to the power play.

Some Biz was done to North America on Friday and Monday with prices becoming very attractive for January and February shipments in the usd 2.95/-3.05/lb range and more buying interest is seen at usd 2.90/lb range for February shipments by Giant buyers who may runaway if the Indian futures market is lowered further in the coming days.