To: PEPPERTRADE EDT
Sent: Friday, September 04, 2009 12:53 PM
Subject: CLIP OF THE NECK OF BULLS
sir
what is the right informatio?
one day you write one price later the SAME DAY you write other ?
what si teh real prices ? 2650 ot 2700 ? 2950 or "below 2750 ?
we follow you daily for some years and your site is a reference to our job
but it must be more serious we need confidence for our job
sorry for this e-mail but we say it only in good intention
RECEIVED FM "Anonimous"
Friday, September 04, 2009
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
September Pepper –All set for take off ?
Karachi, September 1st, 2009
August 09 has been very exciting month for pepper market all over the world.
From July 27 till August 10 there has been only one trend and that was upward. We have read many reports, analysis and market forecasts by industry professionals. Some reports mentioned that the market is over done, some reports predicts still enough room in the room for Bull’s dance.
Let’s watch the market behavior from August 11 till today September 01, 2009.
Pepper prices started declining sharply from its peak U$D 2900 fob (Most famous FAQ Vietnam) and touched U$D 2450 in 3-4 business sessions. At this level a strong support came and lot of business was done. The prices started rising again and touched USD 2650-2700 FOB on next Monday. Market had to face strong resistance at USD 2700 FOB.
So again the market went down to USD 2550 level and then again climbed to USD 2700 FOB level on September 1st evening.
The market has been moving in a short range of USD 150 up and down after making bottom at U$D 2450 that is a sign of strength. In the meantime other big competing origin Brazil had not much fluctuations and the prices there stood more or less at U$D 2700-2800 FOB level for B1.The role of Indian exchanges can’t be overlooked now and there the price has been fluctuating in a range of 145-160 INR/KG.
Before discussing future scenario lets see demand side in the coming weeks. It’s obvious that US, the biggest buyer has yet to cover for last quarter requirements.
Europe the second biggest has also enter the market as soon as the summers holidays are finished.
In Middle East the consumption months are approaching as festival seasons marriage seasons all starts from September every year.
As per our information the stocks are not much in the consuming countries.
The biggest trader India also has to face shortfall in the upcoming crop 2009-2010 as there has been 25% lesser moon soon showers which upsets major spices crops there.
Now comes the supply side,
Vietnam the hero of the drama has in fact very very thin stocks and it has already exported 100,000 tons and it has nothing more than 10,000-15,000 mt available till Feb 2010.
If some buyers enter the market at this stage the market can shoot up just in one trading session.
If it breaks the resistance at USD 2700 next resistance might be at USD 3000 but it will be not so strong and by breaking this level definitely next stop is at USD3500.
The reports from Brazil reveal that the crop size is definitely lesser for this July/August Espirito Santo area and furthermore it’s delayed too.
The crops from Sarwak, Indonesia and Srilanka have been playing insignificant role in determining the market trend for last some years.
So by analyzing the demand supply equation one can easily guess that the pepper market might have some very exciting moments in near future.
So let’s watch.
Muhammad Asif Qureshi
Dynamic International Traders
Mail your comments
August 09 has been very exciting month for pepper market all over the world.
From July 27 till August 10 there has been only one trend and that was upward. We have read many reports, analysis and market forecasts by industry professionals. Some reports mentioned that the market is over done, some reports predicts still enough room in the room for Bull’s dance.
Let’s watch the market behavior from August 11 till today September 01, 2009.
Pepper prices started declining sharply from its peak U$D 2900 fob (Most famous FAQ Vietnam) and touched U$D 2450 in 3-4 business sessions. At this level a strong support came and lot of business was done. The prices started rising again and touched USD 2650-2700 FOB on next Monday. Market had to face strong resistance at USD 2700 FOB.
So again the market went down to USD 2550 level and then again climbed to USD 2700 FOB level on September 1st evening.
The market has been moving in a short range of USD 150 up and down after making bottom at U$D 2450 that is a sign of strength. In the meantime other big competing origin Brazil had not much fluctuations and the prices there stood more or less at U$D 2700-2800 FOB level for B1.The role of Indian exchanges can’t be overlooked now and there the price has been fluctuating in a range of 145-160 INR/KG.
Before discussing future scenario lets see demand side in the coming weeks. It’s obvious that US, the biggest buyer has yet to cover for last quarter requirements.
Europe the second biggest has also enter the market as soon as the summers holidays are finished.
In Middle East the consumption months are approaching as festival seasons marriage seasons all starts from September every year.
As per our information the stocks are not much in the consuming countries.
The biggest trader India also has to face shortfall in the upcoming crop 2009-2010 as there has been 25% lesser moon soon showers which upsets major spices crops there.
Now comes the supply side,
Vietnam the hero of the drama has in fact very very thin stocks and it has already exported 100,000 tons and it has nothing more than 10,000-15,000 mt available till Feb 2010.
If some buyers enter the market at this stage the market can shoot up just in one trading session.
If it breaks the resistance at USD 2700 next resistance might be at USD 3000 but it will be not so strong and by breaking this level definitely next stop is at USD3500.
The reports from Brazil reveal that the crop size is definitely lesser for this July/August Espirito Santo area and furthermore it’s delayed too.
The crops from Sarwak, Indonesia and Srilanka have been playing insignificant role in determining the market trend for last some years.
So by analyzing the demand supply equation one can easily guess that the pepper market might have some very exciting moments in near future.
So let’s watch.
Muhammad Asif Qureshi
Dynamic International Traders
Mail your comments
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Have a Paracetamol or a Cognac, sleep well...
Have a Paracetamol or a Cognac, sleep well and when you wake up your cold is gone ! Spot pepper prices in India are not going to be under pressure as the holders are not the ones without backbones like the ones who trades in the National commodity Exchanges who run for their life when some stupid broking house new born baby gives some sell calls . The Indian pepper futures were overbought 100% by people who do not have a single Kilo requirement even for their home consumption but the 85% sellers were seasoned Veterans with deep pockets and knowledge of domestic and international markets and supply and demand economics.I wont be surprised even if the future delivery prices fall to 135 , but at that time also it will be difficult to buy farmgate pepper at 140 per kg.
All the origins were speculating and prices moved up by usd 600 to usd 800 pmt but other than Vietnam and Brazil other producing countries didn't get a chance to sell their superior asta grade at higher prices to the largest consuming country of pepper the United States of America.Now that all origins have cooled off as speculators have lost their shirts and trying to avoid loosing their trousers.Both USA and European Industries need pepper for the last quarter and ist quarter of 2010 have been waiting patiently with the excuse of being away on Vacation has now started to assess the potential danger of postponing the buying requirements and some have started little buying in Europe and more buyers are expected to step in any moment as the downside is very limited as the next big crop will be available only in February 2010.
The sell of in Indian future deliveries have not made any effect on the strict follower Vietnam and Passive spectator Indonesia and they are holding on to their levels not loosing ground because of the huge exports they have made and also have pending commitments at lower prices till the rest of the year are not aggressive at the moment.Although Indian exporters will sell their stocks first if fresh import orders come but good demand will wipe off the entire physical stock from the National Exchange platform at one short.
Be patient:- Good times are round the corner.
Received from "Anonimous"
All the origins were speculating and prices moved up by usd 600 to usd 800 pmt but other than Vietnam and Brazil other producing countries didn't get a chance to sell their superior asta grade at higher prices to the largest consuming country of pepper the United States of America.Now that all origins have cooled off as speculators have lost their shirts and trying to avoid loosing their trousers.Both USA and European Industries need pepper for the last quarter and ist quarter of 2010 have been waiting patiently with the excuse of being away on Vacation has now started to assess the potential danger of postponing the buying requirements and some have started little buying in Europe and more buyers are expected to step in any moment as the downside is very limited as the next big crop will be available only in February 2010.
The sell of in Indian future deliveries have not made any effect on the strict follower Vietnam and Passive spectator Indonesia and they are holding on to their levels not loosing ground because of the huge exports they have made and also have pending commitments at lower prices till the rest of the year are not aggressive at the moment.Although Indian exporters will sell their stocks first if fresh import orders come but good demand will wipe off the entire physical stock from the National Exchange platform at one short.
Be patient:- Good times are round the corner.
Received from "Anonimous"
Friday, August 21, 2009
Is the Bull Party getting over ??
Is the Bull Party getting over ??
The current bull run spearheaded by Indian Casino Players may be extended for another usd 200 pmt locally before they crash it to 13500 levels in September but the bull party which was happening globally following Indian live Casino seems to be getting over as origins like Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil stopped following the Indian futures and have started doing their things seriously.
With the news spreading that Indian farmgate pepper is trading inr 8-10 per kg than what they are seeing on the screen both Indonesia and Vietnam slashed their prices on asta variety last night to usd 1.43/lb for Sept thru December shipment .
Brazil was concentrating only on nearby sales fearing getting caught on exchange rates was offering B2 @ usd 2650 fob B1 @ usd 2750 fob and Basta @ usd 2850 fob Belem for sept shipments with reported Biz of 200 mt of B1 @ usd 2700 fob Belem from european traders which will create problems and some cooling off in Vietnam as Brazilian pepper is much cleaner than vietnam 500 g/l and 550 g/l pepper.
It looks like in India the demand for home use of speculators are not over for the paper contracts as spot farmgate pepper which is available at147-150 are not being picked up but 161 sept paper contracts are picked up in thousands of tons.Its nothing but rampant speculation which is happening in India with the blessing of the regulator and the volume hungry comex and new generation analysts experimenting technical charts which are not natural charts but made up charts of speculators which will kill many small and medium investors.
Both domestic and overseas buyers are keeping away from the market and the only demand currently is from speculators who are paying huge premiums for sept and oct deliveries there by enticing investors to step in buying spot and sell future deliveries. Most of the locals were praying for 150 levels to happen to get out and some are exiting while greedy ones are waiting to wait for another year to see these levels again if the anticipated demand every one was waiting for doesn't show up.
Jennifer La Rive
The current bull run spearheaded by Indian Casino Players may be extended for another usd 200 pmt locally before they crash it to 13500 levels in September but the bull party which was happening globally following Indian live Casino seems to be getting over as origins like Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil stopped following the Indian futures and have started doing their things seriously.
With the news spreading that Indian farmgate pepper is trading inr 8-10 per kg than what they are seeing on the screen both Indonesia and Vietnam slashed their prices on asta variety last night to usd 1.43/lb for Sept thru December shipment .
Brazil was concentrating only on nearby sales fearing getting caught on exchange rates was offering B2 @ usd 2650 fob B1 @ usd 2750 fob and Basta @ usd 2850 fob Belem for sept shipments with reported Biz of 200 mt of B1 @ usd 2700 fob Belem from european traders which will create problems and some cooling off in Vietnam as Brazilian pepper is much cleaner than vietnam 500 g/l and 550 g/l pepper.
It looks like in India the demand for home use of speculators are not over for the paper contracts as spot farmgate pepper which is available at147-150 are not being picked up but 161 sept paper contracts are picked up in thousands of tons.Its nothing but rampant speculation which is happening in India with the blessing of the regulator and the volume hungry comex and new generation analysts experimenting technical charts which are not natural charts but made up charts of speculators which will kill many small and medium investors.
Both domestic and overseas buyers are keeping away from the market and the only demand currently is from speculators who are paying huge premiums for sept and oct deliveries there by enticing investors to step in buying spot and sell future deliveries. Most of the locals were praying for 150 levels to happen to get out and some are exiting while greedy ones are waiting to wait for another year to see these levels again if the anticipated demand every one was waiting for doesn't show up.
Jennifer La Rive
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
Comment Re: "Pepper turns hot again as...
Dear Sir,
I'm Ta, a senior trader of pepper for one of five biggest pepper exporters in Vietnam. After reading the article named "Pepper turns hot again as sellers hold back stocks", I see that your figure is rather exact as some official sources in Vietnam except the quantity of cross-border export pepper (to China and Combodia) of 5,000mts. From my survey three weeks ago, five large suppliers in Binh Duong province and one in Chu Se (a largest production area of Gia Lai province) have been exporting white pepper to China and Combodia at quantity of 2,000 - 3,000mts per supplier and total quantity is about 15,000-18,000mts. That means total quantity of black pepper only used for processing above quantity of white pepper is about 20,000 - 25,000mts.
Therefore, the maximum stock of black pepper in Vietnam until July 31th will be 12,000-15,000mts and far lower than figure on your article. Please check the number again and amend correctly so that every one can understand the real situation of the market.
Thanks and best regards,
Mr Ta
Post 18/08/2009
Re: "Pepper turns hot again as...
http://www.peppertrade.com.br/comment9421.htm
I'm Ta, a senior trader of pepper for one of five biggest pepper exporters in Vietnam. After reading the article named "Pepper turns hot again as sellers hold back stocks", I see that your figure is rather exact as some official sources in Vietnam except the quantity of cross-border export pepper (to China and Combodia) of 5,000mts. From my survey three weeks ago, five large suppliers in Binh Duong province and one in Chu Se (a largest production area of Gia Lai province) have been exporting white pepper to China and Combodia at quantity of 2,000 - 3,000mts per supplier and total quantity is about 15,000-18,000mts. That means total quantity of black pepper only used for processing above quantity of white pepper is about 20,000 - 25,000mts.
Therefore, the maximum stock of black pepper in Vietnam until July 31th will be 12,000-15,000mts and far lower than figure on your article. Please check the number again and amend correctly so that every one can understand the real situation of the market.
Thanks and best regards,
Mr Ta
Post 18/08/2009
Re: "Pepper turns hot again as...
http://www.peppertrade.com.br/comment9421.htm
Sunday, August 16, 2009
Re:Who Plays Whom or
who is trying to squeeze whom ??
Who Plays Whom or who is trying to squeeze whom ??
Origins along with the current worlds largest pepper trader are the ones squeezing the shorts and those who need to buy according to the study made indepth by our team who were visiting vsrious origins and major trading centers Singapore,Rotterdam and Hamburg. Actually there is no shortage of pepper till the new crop of india and Vietnam the major ones are not faraway and the current stocks and coming Brazilian crop can take care of normal needs.But the market is played in such a manner and making availability an issue and which can trigger a bull run which will hurt many players in origins and consuming countries.
Oportunities will come and go and one has to watch the market carefully and if needs to buy, buy that moment and dont get caught.Indian futures after august deliveries are planned to be taken to inr 160 by speculators with the help of kid analysts of major broking arms .who will be giving buy calls as their jobs are at stake if they dont get required volumes to keep their jobs intact.
Lets wait and see how the market is going to behave next week where we will be hearing lot of stories from various corners.
JLR
Origins along with the current worlds largest pepper trader are the ones squeezing the shorts and those who need to buy according to the study made indepth by our team who were visiting vsrious origins and major trading centers Singapore,Rotterdam and Hamburg. Actually there is no shortage of pepper till the new crop of india and Vietnam the major ones are not faraway and the current stocks and coming Brazilian crop can take care of normal needs.But the market is played in such a manner and making availability an issue and which can trigger a bull run which will hurt many players in origins and consuming countries.
Oportunities will come and go and one has to watch the market carefully and if needs to buy, buy that moment and dont get caught.Indian futures after august deliveries are planned to be taken to inr 160 by speculators with the help of kid analysts of major broking arms .who will be giving buy calls as their jobs are at stake if they dont get required volumes to keep their jobs intact.
Lets wait and see how the market is going to behave next week where we will be hearing lot of stories from various corners.
JLR
Friday, August 14, 2009
WHO PLAYS (GAMBLES) WHOM ?
Pepper - The Trigger of the Bull run
2009/08/15
The last July 30 an article was published by VietNamNet Bridge , distributed to and re-published by several specialized media, including Peppertrade Website under the original title " Vietnamese pepper exporters sell them cheap".
According many analist the publishing of this aritcle may have triggered the market rush which drove to extreme prices volatility that marked all this week.
Among other bombastic afirmations the article mentioned that VPA Board has predicted that pepper prices would reach U$ 5,000 pmt until the end of the year and suggested exporters to control the sales in order to increase the prices.
Immediately after this publication went out, the VPA board issue a note contesting the facts and the terms of such article, deniyng as false all the infomations of the said article which Peppertrade also published. Unfortunately this Contesting Note did not received the same attention from other media.
Now we got to learn the original report issued upon the meeting of the Executive Board of the VPA held for the evaluation of the first semester of 2009, futures plans and actions and other administrative issues.
The whole document is extense and some parts of it are internal administrative questions, and for that reason we publish only a part of it under the sub-title:
Forecast for the entire months of the year and some key matters
2009/08/15
The last July 30 an article was published by VietNamNet Bridge , distributed to and re-published by several specialized media, including Peppertrade Website under the original title " Vietnamese pepper exporters sell them cheap".
According many analist the publishing of this aritcle may have triggered the market rush which drove to extreme prices volatility that marked all this week.
Among other bombastic afirmations the article mentioned that VPA Board has predicted that pepper prices would reach U$ 5,000 pmt until the end of the year and suggested exporters to control the sales in order to increase the prices.
Immediately after this publication went out, the VPA board issue a note contesting the facts and the terms of such article, deniyng as false all the infomations of the said article which Peppertrade also published. Unfortunately this Contesting Note did not received the same attention from other media.
Now we got to learn the original report issued upon the meeting of the Executive Board of the VPA held for the evaluation of the first semester of 2009, futures plans and actions and other administrative issues.
The whole document is extense and some parts of it are internal administrative questions, and for that reason we publish only a part of it under the sub-title:
Forecast for the entire months of the year and some key matters
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