Reports fm Vietnam fundament bullish trend
2009/10/08
October 8, 2009
Last September 22, a report form Vietnam was warning that Vietnam had 20,000 tons of Pepper for exports by late 2009.
The article reported:
Vietnam has left only 15,000-20,000 tons of pepper for exports in the remaining months of 2009, according to the Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA).The VPA estimated that the country would harvest 105,000 tons of pepper this year, of which up to 95,000 tons worth US$228 million were shipped abroad already in the first eight months.In August, the country sold abroad 13,113 tons of pepper worth US$34.8 million, down 5.28% in volume and up 1.02% in value against the previous month.
The U.S. continued to be the largest importer of Vietnam’s pepper, purchasing 1,916 tons in the month.
The United Arab Emirates ranked second with 1,623 tons.Germany and Egypt followed with respective figures of 928 tons and 861 tons.
Prices of pepper have recently started rising in Vietnam thanks to soaring global demand. On September 9, pepper was sold for VND47,500 per kilo in the central highlands province of Dak Lak, the highest level since early 2009..
VPA is encouraging its members to meet market requirements by further investing in appropriate processing equipment.Vietnam, the world’s leading pepper exporter, is expected to export 100,000 tons of pepper in 2009, an increase of 10,000 tons over last year..
(Youth, CPV)
Nevertheless on October 6 the VPA _ Vietnam Pepper Association reported a 14,000 ton exported volume in September amd 111,110 for the first nine month of the year.
If both information proceed it seems like Vietnam has less than 5,000 tons left to the end of the year and the new crop which by other reports, risks to be much smaller than expected due to adverse weather.as reported earlier this week.
Thus the reason for a consistent altough still light bullish trend.
PEPPERTRADE EDITOR
Mail your comments
Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Rains in Vietnam
Information from Vietnam
From Vietnam October 6, 2009
Typhoon No. 9 cause broken down about 1,000 hectares pepper in Gia Lai, Dak Lak
According to sources from local, Typhoon No. 9 caused severe damage; Particularly for pepper plants, about 1,000 hectares broken down, debris, including Gialai about 500 hectares , Dak Lak province about 400 hectares.
In Chu Se district, Gia Lai province, according to information from the Association Chu Se Pepper said incomplete statistics: More than 152,000 pillars equivalents about 75 hectares broken down completely and hundreds of hectares were put crushed pepper reduced yield of 20%.
Preliminary assessment on production crop 2009, due to weather conditions are not favorable, production of pepper reduction 40% in compared with crop 2008. This will strongly impact the supply, demand, pricing pepper domestic market and export-import market pepper in 2010.
Read more about this...
From Vietnam October 6, 2009
Typhoon No. 9 cause broken down about 1,000 hectares pepper in Gia Lai, Dak Lak
According to sources from local, Typhoon No. 9 caused severe damage; Particularly for pepper plants, about 1,000 hectares broken down, debris, including Gialai about 500 hectares , Dak Lak province about 400 hectares.
In Chu Se district, Gia Lai province, according to information from the Association Chu Se Pepper said incomplete statistics: More than 152,000 pillars equivalents about 75 hectares broken down completely and hundreds of hectares were put crushed pepper reduced yield of 20%.
Preliminary assessment on production crop 2009, due to weather conditions are not favorable, production of pepper reduction 40% in compared with crop 2008. This will strongly impact the supply, demand, pricing pepper domestic market and export-import market pepper in 2010.
Read more about this...
Monday, September 21, 2009
Indian Pepper Scenario on Eid Eve
Indian exporters of the black gold have been waiting patiently for the opportunity of doing at least 3000 mt of exports in the last quarter of 2009, after six months of high profile online Casino activities with the blessing of the National Agri Exchange who comes under the most ineffective and back bone less regulator in the country.
Many ask why a regulator of this caliber is needed in a country where the stock market regulator is one of the best in the world and the regulation of trading futures in commodities also should be entrusted with them for the effective functioning of this beautiful model which was well run. for more than 50 years by India pepper and spice Trade Association with impeccable record and never given the chance for regulator to interfere as the self regulation itself was one of the best we have seen in this country with regard to running the exchange as it was not a money making platform but a platform well designed to cater the needs of farmers, up country traders. stockiests and Terminal Traders and Exporters of Black pepper in this country.
The total exports of black pepper made from the country till sept 15 was to the tune of 7500 mt out of which imported pepper constituted 6000 mt which means India has not exported Indian origin pepper in the first half of financial year 2009 2010.
Is not more than 1500 mt although the quantities traded in the online Casino are close to 150000 mt minimum in a month .
Who is benefitting from this price destruction system ?
Its high time to either to regulate the system on the full spirit of letter and word or close down the operation as the money from a million retail operators have reached the pockets of a very few people who can be counted on finger tips besides the exchage and cell call anlysts from various commodity broking houses.
Every morning we see stories on Indian pepper. Some are so stupid and absurd and the editor and publisher should be stoned to death for printing such stories.
For exporting 250 mt pepper you can read stories and Live TV shows from old school stalwarts to the new generation breast feeding analysts who have considered themselves as the last word with regard to price movements either intraday or during the tenor of the contract .
Competitive pricing of Indian pepper currently. will results in exports in the last Quarter of 2009 ? was asked to Mr Jojan Malayil Vice Chairman of All India. Spice Exporters Forum and the country's largest exporter of Indian Black and white pepper and the answer was ”no comments” for the first time in recent times seems.
Things are not positive as he predicted before .So guys watch out or you will be caught on the wrong foot .
Jennifer La Rive
New Delhi
19/09/2009 22 30 hrs
Many ask why a regulator of this caliber is needed in a country where the stock market regulator is one of the best in the world and the regulation of trading futures in commodities also should be entrusted with them for the effective functioning of this beautiful model which was well run. for more than 50 years by India pepper and spice Trade Association with impeccable record and never given the chance for regulator to interfere as the self regulation itself was one of the best we have seen in this country with regard to running the exchange as it was not a money making platform but a platform well designed to cater the needs of farmers, up country traders. stockiests and Terminal Traders and Exporters of Black pepper in this country.
The total exports of black pepper made from the country till sept 15 was to the tune of 7500 mt out of which imported pepper constituted 6000 mt which means India has not exported Indian origin pepper in the first half of financial year 2009 2010.
Is not more than 1500 mt although the quantities traded in the online Casino are close to 150000 mt minimum in a month .
Who is benefitting from this price destruction system ?
Its high time to either to regulate the system on the full spirit of letter and word or close down the operation as the money from a million retail operators have reached the pockets of a very few people who can be counted on finger tips besides the exchage and cell call anlysts from various commodity broking houses.
Every morning we see stories on Indian pepper. Some are so stupid and absurd and the editor and publisher should be stoned to death for printing such stories.
For exporting 250 mt pepper you can read stories and Live TV shows from old school stalwarts to the new generation breast feeding analysts who have considered themselves as the last word with regard to price movements either intraday or during the tenor of the contract .
Competitive pricing of Indian pepper currently. will results in exports in the last Quarter of 2009 ? was asked to Mr Jojan Malayil Vice Chairman of All India. Spice Exporters Forum and the country's largest exporter of Indian Black and white pepper and the answer was ”no comments” for the first time in recent times seems.
Things are not positive as he predicted before .So guys watch out or you will be caught on the wrong foot .
Jennifer La Rive
New Delhi
19/09/2009 22 30 hrs
Friday, September 04, 2009
Subject: CLIP OF THE NECK OF BULLS
To: PEPPERTRADE EDT
Sent: Friday, September 04, 2009 12:53 PM
Subject: CLIP OF THE NECK OF BULLS
sir
what is the right informatio?
one day you write one price later the SAME DAY you write other ?
what si teh real prices ? 2650 ot 2700 ? 2950 or "below 2750 ?
we follow you daily for some years and your site is a reference to our job
but it must be more serious we need confidence for our job
sorry for this e-mail but we say it only in good intention
RECEIVED FM "Anonimous"
Sent: Friday, September 04, 2009 12:53 PM
Subject: CLIP OF THE NECK OF BULLS
sir
what is the right informatio?
one day you write one price later the SAME DAY you write other ?
what si teh real prices ? 2650 ot 2700 ? 2950 or "below 2750 ?
we follow you daily for some years and your site is a reference to our job
but it must be more serious we need confidence for our job
sorry for this e-mail but we say it only in good intention
RECEIVED FM "Anonimous"
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
September Pepper –All set for take off ?
Karachi, September 1st, 2009
August 09 has been very exciting month for pepper market all over the world.
From July 27 till August 10 there has been only one trend and that was upward. We have read many reports, analysis and market forecasts by industry professionals. Some reports mentioned that the market is over done, some reports predicts still enough room in the room for Bull’s dance.
Let’s watch the market behavior from August 11 till today September 01, 2009.
Pepper prices started declining sharply from its peak U$D 2900 fob (Most famous FAQ Vietnam) and touched U$D 2450 in 3-4 business sessions. At this level a strong support came and lot of business was done. The prices started rising again and touched USD 2650-2700 FOB on next Monday. Market had to face strong resistance at USD 2700 FOB.
So again the market went down to USD 2550 level and then again climbed to USD 2700 FOB level on September 1st evening.
The market has been moving in a short range of USD 150 up and down after making bottom at U$D 2450 that is a sign of strength. In the meantime other big competing origin Brazil had not much fluctuations and the prices there stood more or less at U$D 2700-2800 FOB level for B1.The role of Indian exchanges can’t be overlooked now and there the price has been fluctuating in a range of 145-160 INR/KG.
Before discussing future scenario lets see demand side in the coming weeks. It’s obvious that US, the biggest buyer has yet to cover for last quarter requirements.
Europe the second biggest has also enter the market as soon as the summers holidays are finished.
In Middle East the consumption months are approaching as festival seasons marriage seasons all starts from September every year.
As per our information the stocks are not much in the consuming countries.
The biggest trader India also has to face shortfall in the upcoming crop 2009-2010 as there has been 25% lesser moon soon showers which upsets major spices crops there.
Now comes the supply side,
Vietnam the hero of the drama has in fact very very thin stocks and it has already exported 100,000 tons and it has nothing more than 10,000-15,000 mt available till Feb 2010.
If some buyers enter the market at this stage the market can shoot up just in one trading session.
If it breaks the resistance at USD 2700 next resistance might be at USD 3000 but it will be not so strong and by breaking this level definitely next stop is at USD3500.
The reports from Brazil reveal that the crop size is definitely lesser for this July/August Espirito Santo area and furthermore it’s delayed too.
The crops from Sarwak, Indonesia and Srilanka have been playing insignificant role in determining the market trend for last some years.
So by analyzing the demand supply equation one can easily guess that the pepper market might have some very exciting moments in near future.
So let’s watch.
Muhammad Asif Qureshi
Dynamic International Traders
Mail your comments
August 09 has been very exciting month for pepper market all over the world.
From July 27 till August 10 there has been only one trend and that was upward. We have read many reports, analysis and market forecasts by industry professionals. Some reports mentioned that the market is over done, some reports predicts still enough room in the room for Bull’s dance.
Let’s watch the market behavior from August 11 till today September 01, 2009.
Pepper prices started declining sharply from its peak U$D 2900 fob (Most famous FAQ Vietnam) and touched U$D 2450 in 3-4 business sessions. At this level a strong support came and lot of business was done. The prices started rising again and touched USD 2650-2700 FOB on next Monday. Market had to face strong resistance at USD 2700 FOB.
So again the market went down to USD 2550 level and then again climbed to USD 2700 FOB level on September 1st evening.
The market has been moving in a short range of USD 150 up and down after making bottom at U$D 2450 that is a sign of strength. In the meantime other big competing origin Brazil had not much fluctuations and the prices there stood more or less at U$D 2700-2800 FOB level for B1.The role of Indian exchanges can’t be overlooked now and there the price has been fluctuating in a range of 145-160 INR/KG.
Before discussing future scenario lets see demand side in the coming weeks. It’s obvious that US, the biggest buyer has yet to cover for last quarter requirements.
Europe the second biggest has also enter the market as soon as the summers holidays are finished.
In Middle East the consumption months are approaching as festival seasons marriage seasons all starts from September every year.
As per our information the stocks are not much in the consuming countries.
The biggest trader India also has to face shortfall in the upcoming crop 2009-2010 as there has been 25% lesser moon soon showers which upsets major spices crops there.
Now comes the supply side,
Vietnam the hero of the drama has in fact very very thin stocks and it has already exported 100,000 tons and it has nothing more than 10,000-15,000 mt available till Feb 2010.
If some buyers enter the market at this stage the market can shoot up just in one trading session.
If it breaks the resistance at USD 2700 next resistance might be at USD 3000 but it will be not so strong and by breaking this level definitely next stop is at USD3500.
The reports from Brazil reveal that the crop size is definitely lesser for this July/August Espirito Santo area and furthermore it’s delayed too.
The crops from Sarwak, Indonesia and Srilanka have been playing insignificant role in determining the market trend for last some years.
So by analyzing the demand supply equation one can easily guess that the pepper market might have some very exciting moments in near future.
So let’s watch.
Muhammad Asif Qureshi
Dynamic International Traders
Mail your comments
Thursday, August 27, 2009
Have a Paracetamol or a Cognac, sleep well...
Have a Paracetamol or a Cognac, sleep well and when you wake up your cold is gone ! Spot pepper prices in India are not going to be under pressure as the holders are not the ones without backbones like the ones who trades in the National commodity Exchanges who run for their life when some stupid broking house new born baby gives some sell calls . The Indian pepper futures were overbought 100% by people who do not have a single Kilo requirement even for their home consumption but the 85% sellers were seasoned Veterans with deep pockets and knowledge of domestic and international markets and supply and demand economics.I wont be surprised even if the future delivery prices fall to 135 , but at that time also it will be difficult to buy farmgate pepper at 140 per kg.
All the origins were speculating and prices moved up by usd 600 to usd 800 pmt but other than Vietnam and Brazil other producing countries didn't get a chance to sell their superior asta grade at higher prices to the largest consuming country of pepper the United States of America.Now that all origins have cooled off as speculators have lost their shirts and trying to avoid loosing their trousers.Both USA and European Industries need pepper for the last quarter and ist quarter of 2010 have been waiting patiently with the excuse of being away on Vacation has now started to assess the potential danger of postponing the buying requirements and some have started little buying in Europe and more buyers are expected to step in any moment as the downside is very limited as the next big crop will be available only in February 2010.
The sell of in Indian future deliveries have not made any effect on the strict follower Vietnam and Passive spectator Indonesia and they are holding on to their levels not loosing ground because of the huge exports they have made and also have pending commitments at lower prices till the rest of the year are not aggressive at the moment.Although Indian exporters will sell their stocks first if fresh import orders come but good demand will wipe off the entire physical stock from the National Exchange platform at one short.
Be patient:- Good times are round the corner.
Received from "Anonimous"
All the origins were speculating and prices moved up by usd 600 to usd 800 pmt but other than Vietnam and Brazil other producing countries didn't get a chance to sell their superior asta grade at higher prices to the largest consuming country of pepper the United States of America.Now that all origins have cooled off as speculators have lost their shirts and trying to avoid loosing their trousers.Both USA and European Industries need pepper for the last quarter and ist quarter of 2010 have been waiting patiently with the excuse of being away on Vacation has now started to assess the potential danger of postponing the buying requirements and some have started little buying in Europe and more buyers are expected to step in any moment as the downside is very limited as the next big crop will be available only in February 2010.
The sell of in Indian future deliveries have not made any effect on the strict follower Vietnam and Passive spectator Indonesia and they are holding on to their levels not loosing ground because of the huge exports they have made and also have pending commitments at lower prices till the rest of the year are not aggressive at the moment.Although Indian exporters will sell their stocks first if fresh import orders come but good demand will wipe off the entire physical stock from the National Exchange platform at one short.
Be patient:- Good times are round the corner.
Received from "Anonimous"
Friday, August 21, 2009
Is the Bull Party getting over ??
Is the Bull Party getting over ??
The current bull run spearheaded by Indian Casino Players may be extended for another usd 200 pmt locally before they crash it to 13500 levels in September but the bull party which was happening globally following Indian live Casino seems to be getting over as origins like Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil stopped following the Indian futures and have started doing their things seriously.
With the news spreading that Indian farmgate pepper is trading inr 8-10 per kg than what they are seeing on the screen both Indonesia and Vietnam slashed their prices on asta variety last night to usd 1.43/lb for Sept thru December shipment .
Brazil was concentrating only on nearby sales fearing getting caught on exchange rates was offering B2 @ usd 2650 fob B1 @ usd 2750 fob and Basta @ usd 2850 fob Belem for sept shipments with reported Biz of 200 mt of B1 @ usd 2700 fob Belem from european traders which will create problems and some cooling off in Vietnam as Brazilian pepper is much cleaner than vietnam 500 g/l and 550 g/l pepper.
It looks like in India the demand for home use of speculators are not over for the paper contracts as spot farmgate pepper which is available at147-150 are not being picked up but 161 sept paper contracts are picked up in thousands of tons.Its nothing but rampant speculation which is happening in India with the blessing of the regulator and the volume hungry comex and new generation analysts experimenting technical charts which are not natural charts but made up charts of speculators which will kill many small and medium investors.
Both domestic and overseas buyers are keeping away from the market and the only demand currently is from speculators who are paying huge premiums for sept and oct deliveries there by enticing investors to step in buying spot and sell future deliveries. Most of the locals were praying for 150 levels to happen to get out and some are exiting while greedy ones are waiting to wait for another year to see these levels again if the anticipated demand every one was waiting for doesn't show up.
Jennifer La Rive
The current bull run spearheaded by Indian Casino Players may be extended for another usd 200 pmt locally before they crash it to 13500 levels in September but the bull party which was happening globally following Indian live Casino seems to be getting over as origins like Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil stopped following the Indian futures and have started doing their things seriously.
With the news spreading that Indian farmgate pepper is trading inr 8-10 per kg than what they are seeing on the screen both Indonesia and Vietnam slashed their prices on asta variety last night to usd 1.43/lb for Sept thru December shipment .
Brazil was concentrating only on nearby sales fearing getting caught on exchange rates was offering B2 @ usd 2650 fob B1 @ usd 2750 fob and Basta @ usd 2850 fob Belem for sept shipments with reported Biz of 200 mt of B1 @ usd 2700 fob Belem from european traders which will create problems and some cooling off in Vietnam as Brazilian pepper is much cleaner than vietnam 500 g/l and 550 g/l pepper.
It looks like in India the demand for home use of speculators are not over for the paper contracts as spot farmgate pepper which is available at147-150 are not being picked up but 161 sept paper contracts are picked up in thousands of tons.Its nothing but rampant speculation which is happening in India with the blessing of the regulator and the volume hungry comex and new generation analysts experimenting technical charts which are not natural charts but made up charts of speculators which will kill many small and medium investors.
Both domestic and overseas buyers are keeping away from the market and the only demand currently is from speculators who are paying huge premiums for sept and oct deliveries there by enticing investors to step in buying spot and sell future deliveries. Most of the locals were praying for 150 levels to happen to get out and some are exiting while greedy ones are waiting to wait for another year to see these levels again if the anticipated demand every one was waiting for doesn't show up.
Jennifer La Rive
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