Dear Sirs,
Pepper zooms up on speculation and reports of spot pepper buying by exporters. Prices on future deliveries close at its 4 % limits up. Spot pepper finds buyers at higher levels than yday and sensing this, the shorts on futures came forward to cover which imparted the momentum for prices to move upwards. Traders continue to remain in a 'disbelief' kind of a state with this kind of a move. Last 10 days saw markets moving up by about 15 to 17 % on spot and futures.
Higher advises from Vietnam were like fuel to the fire. Market tone at the end of the day is very very firm.
Indian MG I ASTA grade parity at $ 3300 / 3350 PMT FOB Cochin
From www.peppertrade.com.br
Thursday, March 25, 2010
India continues to be 3rd largest buyer of Vietnam pepper in March also
New Delhi 25 March 2010
India the largest consumer of pepper as a producing origin somewhere between 40,000 and 50000 mt with an average production of 45000 - 50000 mt annually continue to be the 3rd largest importer of pepper from Vietnam in the first half of march 2010 with 604 mt already destined for India according to the export statistics released in Hochiminh City.
These imports are besides the ones from Indonesia and Sri Lanka which clearly shows that indian origin black pepper exports are becoming thinner and thinner day by day which on one hand is very good as the country shouldnt end up importing pepper for home consumption but on the hand the cochin pepper mafia will continue to sow the fear psychosis weeds on local traders and farmers scaring with them the news of imported pepper flowing freely anywhere in the country.
United States of America stood first with 1050 mt followed by Germany 1046 mt in the first half of march with regard to imports from vietnam which clearly shows the two major importing countries continued requirement of black pepper.
Reports emanating from Vietnam says that India will go to the No 1 spot in the month of April as two arms of multinational companies who are having processing facilities in india have picked up 1000 mt for shipment in March and will be reaching the indian shores by mid april. Now that India has become outpriced in the indian market heavily the usual delivery pickers from the national exchange might abstain from deliveries which can create some pressure towards maturity of April contract.
If the indian speculators continue to keep the future delivery prices at a premium the imports of pepper into the country will create a new record in 2010.
Sham Nair
India the largest consumer of pepper as a producing origin somewhere between 40,000 and 50000 mt with an average production of 45000 - 50000 mt annually continue to be the 3rd largest importer of pepper from Vietnam in the first half of march 2010 with 604 mt already destined for India according to the export statistics released in Hochiminh City.
These imports are besides the ones from Indonesia and Sri Lanka which clearly shows that indian origin black pepper exports are becoming thinner and thinner day by day which on one hand is very good as the country shouldnt end up importing pepper for home consumption but on the hand the cochin pepper mafia will continue to sow the fear psychosis weeds on local traders and farmers scaring with them the news of imported pepper flowing freely anywhere in the country.
United States of America stood first with 1050 mt followed by Germany 1046 mt in the first half of march with regard to imports from vietnam which clearly shows the two major importing countries continued requirement of black pepper.
Reports emanating from Vietnam says that India will go to the No 1 spot in the month of April as two arms of multinational companies who are having processing facilities in india have picked up 1000 mt for shipment in March and will be reaching the indian shores by mid april. Now that India has become outpriced in the indian market heavily the usual delivery pickers from the national exchange might abstain from deliveries which can create some pressure towards maturity of April contract.
If the indian speculators continue to keep the future delivery prices at a premium the imports of pepper into the country will create a new record in 2010.
Sham Nair
Saturday, March 13, 2010
REF: Vietnam is ruling the 2010 World Pepper Market
Dear Mr Editor
Pertaining to the article below would like to make some comments and would request your goodselves to start a discussion forum from pepper lovers and manipulators and speculators why not all stakeholders of the industry.
I think everyone will agree that Vietnam holds the Key of International pricing of Black pepper whether Indonesia and Brazil still trying to compete them with insignificant quantities or indian exchanges play reverse games showing their muscle and money power.
If the VPA managers really orchestrate a clear sales policy Vietnamese farmers and exporters are going to fetch a fantastic return of their produce in 2010. With our sources reporting from Daklak that this year since there is virtually no carry over stocks and most stocks in the hands of farmers unlike previous years when exporters were also holding carryover stocks big arrivals in certain days use to influence the market which resulted in panic selling.
This year such a scenario is not seen and the western world will have to pay the price of the Vietnamese farmers for their pepper if they want it. Indian harvest where almost 50% is over the farmers have harvested and dried it and kept in store and not willing to discuss current prices for any sales activities.
The Hindu Business Line reports out of 7240 mt of pepper exported by Vietnam in the month of January india is the 4th largest importer but quantities and qualities are not mentioned. whether it is bought by oleoresin industries or value addition companies and the respective quantitie are all missing so it is nothing but a fear psychosis treatment for holders of pepper to liquidate by the jewtown based pepper mafia.
When pepper is available at 126 and 127 in rs per kg cannot understand why importers should be importing paying 128 per kg because rupee is strong and its cheap to import. Since the imported pepper has to leave the country in 120 days it does not make this argument good but again an attempt to depress market and corner the commodity.
With regard to EL NINO factor in Brazil so far only your goodselves has brought it up and others seems to not worried and since its your country i am sure that being a seasoned veteran your findings will ultimately prove right.
Best Rgds
Sham Nair
Pertaining to the article below would like to make some comments and would request your goodselves to start a discussion forum from pepper lovers and manipulators and speculators why not all stakeholders of the industry.
I think everyone will agree that Vietnam holds the Key of International pricing of Black pepper whether Indonesia and Brazil still trying to compete them with insignificant quantities or indian exchanges play reverse games showing their muscle and money power.
If the VPA managers really orchestrate a clear sales policy Vietnamese farmers and exporters are going to fetch a fantastic return of their produce in 2010. With our sources reporting from Daklak that this year since there is virtually no carry over stocks and most stocks in the hands of farmers unlike previous years when exporters were also holding carryover stocks big arrivals in certain days use to influence the market which resulted in panic selling.
This year such a scenario is not seen and the western world will have to pay the price of the Vietnamese farmers for their pepper if they want it. Indian harvest where almost 50% is over the farmers have harvested and dried it and kept in store and not willing to discuss current prices for any sales activities.
The Hindu Business Line reports out of 7240 mt of pepper exported by Vietnam in the month of January india is the 4th largest importer but quantities and qualities are not mentioned. whether it is bought by oleoresin industries or value addition companies and the respective quantitie are all missing so it is nothing but a fear psychosis treatment for holders of pepper to liquidate by the jewtown based pepper mafia.
When pepper is available at 126 and 127 in rs per kg cannot understand why importers should be importing paying 128 per kg because rupee is strong and its cheap to import. Since the imported pepper has to leave the country in 120 days it does not make this argument good but again an attempt to depress market and corner the commodity.
With regard to EL NINO factor in Brazil so far only your goodselves has brought it up and others seems to not worried and since its your country i am sure that being a seasoned veteran your findings will ultimately prove right.
Best Rgds
Sham Nair
Monday, March 08, 2010
Vietnam is ruling the 2010 World Pepper Market
The first week of March showed a declining trend in Pepper prices lead by the new crop Vietnamese offers. Nevertheless as the week came to the end, the prices stabilized and are getting firmer.
Reports of good sales from Vietnam new crop to India and Europe show that the buyer´s interest is growing, and there is no fundamented reason for Exporters continue to offer further cheaper prices as Vietnam has no competition at the moment and, possibly, for quite a long time.
India´s crop touched its peak and India´s exports fell around 29% in January reduced to mere 1,500 ton, according a report from Reuters earlier this week.According the Hindu Business Line, " Aggravating their fear further, a report today said the Vietnamese exports in January stood at 7,240 tonnes and India was the third top importer from there, market sources told Business Line. No export demand from overseas, especially the US, was coming to India, of late, and it was being directed towards Vietnam and Indonesia which have been offering lower. A strong rupee against the dollar has made the Indian parity not competitive despite the fall in the futures market, they said."
Brazil is facing a very unfavourable weather since last November / December and the drought may reduce the crop in some 40% in 2010 (click here for more detailed report).
Brazilian exports for 2009 crop, measured between June 2009 and February 2010 were at 28,000 tons, so carryover stock might be estimated in around 6,000 tons, with no possibility of strong reinforcment in June due to the crash of Espirito Santo crop.
Further the Real rate begun to appreciate again, pulling thus the export prices further higher.
Last week, prices at the farm gate ranged from U$D 2,210 monday to U$D2,247 friday.
It is true that some sales happened for as low as U$D 2,550 for B1 550 gl but this was a sporadic occasion for making some cash. The lowest prices in Brazil stood at U$D 2,500 for B2 500gl and U$ 2,625 for B1 560 gl and U$ 2,700 - 2,750 for ASTA. However exporters are not interested in trade at these levels and, need just a tiny reason to increase their prices.
The only threat to Vietnam exporetrs might be poised by Indonesia, since in the last couple of years they increased again their sales in to USA. However their prices stood higher most of the time.
Reported prices average for the week were; Brazil ASTA U$D 2,750, Vietnam 580 gl ASTA U$D 2,900, India MG1 U$D 3,000. Cheaper qualities stood at U$D 2,650 500gl CLEAN from Brazil, U$D 2,350 500gl FAQ from Vietnam.
PEPPERTRADE EDITOR
Reports of good sales from Vietnam new crop to India and Europe show that the buyer´s interest is growing, and there is no fundamented reason for Exporters continue to offer further cheaper prices as Vietnam has no competition at the moment and, possibly, for quite a long time.
India´s crop touched its peak and India´s exports fell around 29% in January reduced to mere 1,500 ton, according a report from Reuters earlier this week.According the Hindu Business Line, " Aggravating their fear further, a report today said the Vietnamese exports in January stood at 7,240 tonnes and India was the third top importer from there, market sources told Business Line. No export demand from overseas, especially the US, was coming to India, of late, and it was being directed towards Vietnam and Indonesia which have been offering lower. A strong rupee against the dollar has made the Indian parity not competitive despite the fall in the futures market, they said."
Brazil is facing a very unfavourable weather since last November / December and the drought may reduce the crop in some 40% in 2010 (click here for more detailed report).
Brazilian exports for 2009 crop, measured between June 2009 and February 2010 were at 28,000 tons, so carryover stock might be estimated in around 6,000 tons, with no possibility of strong reinforcment in June due to the crash of Espirito Santo crop.
Further the Real rate begun to appreciate again, pulling thus the export prices further higher.
Last week, prices at the farm gate ranged from U$D 2,210 monday to U$D2,247 friday.
It is true that some sales happened for as low as U$D 2,550 for B1 550 gl but this was a sporadic occasion for making some cash. The lowest prices in Brazil stood at U$D 2,500 for B2 500gl and U$ 2,625 for B1 560 gl and U$ 2,700 - 2,750 for ASTA. However exporters are not interested in trade at these levels and, need just a tiny reason to increase their prices.
The only threat to Vietnam exporetrs might be poised by Indonesia, since in the last couple of years they increased again their sales in to USA. However their prices stood higher most of the time.
Reported prices average for the week were; Brazil ASTA U$D 2,750, Vietnam 580 gl ASTA U$D 2,900, India MG1 U$D 3,000. Cheaper qualities stood at U$D 2,650 500gl CLEAN from Brazil, U$D 2,350 500gl FAQ from Vietnam.
PEPPERTRADE EDITOR
Monday, December 21, 2009
Saturday, December 12, 2009
2009 IPC Meeting -Report
2009/12/12
Pepper market Scenario during 2008/2009
Excerpts of the Final Report produced by IPC metting in Belem presented by the Executive Director of IPC
PRODUCTION
" During the last six years, world production or pepper declined consistently, with the exception of 2008, from 364,500 tons in 2003 to an estimated 310,636 tons in 2009, a rate of 2,5% per year.
The continuous decline in prices from the peak of averagedly U$D 5,610/ton for black pepper in New York in 1999 to the bottom level of around U$D 1,675/ton in 2004/2005.
However price increase in the late 2006 till the middle of 2008, has yet to show any impact to the increase in output. "
"Overall output was reported reduced in Indonesia, Brazil and Sri Lanka, India was reported stable and Vietnam increased."
2009
"During 2009, it is estimated that global pepper production would be lower by around 8,200 tons ( 3%) from 318,843 ton in 2008 to 310,636 ton in 2009 instead of the projection made during the last IPC meeting which was of 325,000 ton. As for the black pepper it is estimated a total of around 243,600 ton."
" Production of black pepper in Brazil, Indonesia and Sri Lanka is estimated to remain lower while production in Vietnam and Malaysia tend to increase"
EXPORTS
" During 2009, exports from most origins is expected to decrease, due to estimated lower output this year.
However, exports from Vietnam were suprisingly reported to increase substantially this year, offsetting lower exports of the other countries. During January-September 2009, export from Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka totaled at around 87,000 ton as against 102,500 tons in the same period of the last year, showing a significant fall of 15%.
If this performance is extrapolated to the situation of total export from these countries in the year, it is estimated that export of pepper from these five countries in 2009 would be around 112,500 ton.
Some sources reported that Vietnam has shipped 120,000 ton of pepper during January - October 2009. Observing this performance, about 130,000 tons of pepper would be achievable to be shipped from Vietnam during this year. Taking into account that export from other sources ( China, Thailand, Madagascar, Ecuador, etc.) at around 10,000 ton, the total export of pepper in 2009 would be around 252,500 ton."
PRICES
"Price fluctuates from year to year depending upon demand and supply. During 2008 till beginning of 2009, pepper prices experienced a decrease and moved up again in the second semester of the year.
In addition of increased supply in 2008, the decrease in prices was influenced also by demand factor, since global economic turmoil in 2008 has lowered demand of main consuming countrues, such as United States and European countries."
CONCLUSION
"Global pepper production in 2009 would be lower, while the export indicates an increasing trend. As a result of drop in production and exhausted carry over stocks, increased prices could be expected in the global market."
"It is also evident that the productivity of traditional pepper producing countries remains at low level, making remuneration to the farmers not attractive to remain in the industry."
"For both black and white pepper the lucrative prices experienced from around early 2007 toearly 2008 is yet to be achieved.
Given the slow growth rate of pepper production and exhausted carry over stocks, the prices may continue to rise in the world market"
We encourage the discussion of these points.
Send us your opinion about the figures, the trends, the presentation...
EDITOR PEPPERTRADE
2009/12/12
Pepper market Scenario during 2008/2009
Excerpts of the Final Report produced by IPC metting in Belem presented by the Executive Director of IPC
PRODUCTION
" During the last six years, world production or pepper declined consistently, with the exception of 2008, from 364,500 tons in 2003 to an estimated 310,636 tons in 2009, a rate of 2,5% per year.
The continuous decline in prices from the peak of averagedly U$D 5,610/ton for black pepper in New York in 1999 to the bottom level of around U$D 1,675/ton in 2004/2005.
However price increase in the late 2006 till the middle of 2008, has yet to show any impact to the increase in output. "
"Overall output was reported reduced in Indonesia, Brazil and Sri Lanka, India was reported stable and Vietnam increased."
2009
"During 2009, it is estimated that global pepper production would be lower by around 8,200 tons ( 3%) from 318,843 ton in 2008 to 310,636 ton in 2009 instead of the projection made during the last IPC meeting which was of 325,000 ton. As for the black pepper it is estimated a total of around 243,600 ton."
" Production of black pepper in Brazil, Indonesia and Sri Lanka is estimated to remain lower while production in Vietnam and Malaysia tend to increase"
EXPORTS
" During 2009, exports from most origins is expected to decrease, due to estimated lower output this year.
However, exports from Vietnam were suprisingly reported to increase substantially this year, offsetting lower exports of the other countries. During January-September 2009, export from Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka totaled at around 87,000 ton as against 102,500 tons in the same period of the last year, showing a significant fall of 15%.
If this performance is extrapolated to the situation of total export from these countries in the year, it is estimated that export of pepper from these five countries in 2009 would be around 112,500 ton.
Some sources reported that Vietnam has shipped 120,000 ton of pepper during January - October 2009. Observing this performance, about 130,000 tons of pepper would be achievable to be shipped from Vietnam during this year. Taking into account that export from other sources ( China, Thailand, Madagascar, Ecuador, etc.) at around 10,000 ton, the total export of pepper in 2009 would be around 252,500 ton."
PRICES
"Price fluctuates from year to year depending upon demand and supply. During 2008 till beginning of 2009, pepper prices experienced a decrease and moved up again in the second semester of the year.
In addition of increased supply in 2008, the decrease in prices was influenced also by demand factor, since global economic turmoil in 2008 has lowered demand of main consuming countrues, such as United States and European countries."
CONCLUSION
"Global pepper production in 2009 would be lower, while the export indicates an increasing trend. As a result of drop in production and exhausted carry over stocks, increased prices could be expected in the global market."
"It is also evident that the productivity of traditional pepper producing countries remains at low level, making remuneration to the farmers not attractive to remain in the industry."
"For both black and white pepper the lucrative prices experienced from around early 2007 toearly 2008 is yet to be achieved.
Given the slow growth rate of pepper production and exhausted carry over stocks, the prices may continue to rise in the world market"
We encourage the discussion of these points.
Send us your opinion about the figures, the trends, the presentation...
EDITOR PEPPERTRADE
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Can India sustain current Bull Rally ?
New Delhi 27/10/2009
Indian future delivery prices which got triggered from Friday with domestic traders paying up the asking prices of sellers as the pepper traders/stockiest are getting tired besides the speculators as the yearly average prices have been hovering around inr 145/-per kg for the garbled stuff and usd 140 for the farmgate pepper since 2006 june although other commodities have soared as high as 2 to 3 times of its value.
Interestingly since money talks the spot pepper prices have not moved up in tandem with the future delivery prices as operators are still not comfortable going long because fundamentals of the market are proving right.
The Indian casino players have been playing with statistics of Vietnam and Indonesian crop estimates and carry overs all got stunned with Vietnam exporting close to almost 40% more of its predicted crop numbers and Indonesia becoming a "akshya Patra" ( never ending source) for importers .
India the cheerleader hardly exports any of its origin pepper but trade millions of tones in the National Agri Casino ( where the price of pepper is different for same delivery although specifications are same ) Although Indonesia has increased the asking prices to usd 3050 to usd 3100 fob panjang surprisingly Vietnam and Brazil are keeping their tags much below to have more business. Cheer leader India has got its own pockets to park the pepper at very high prices to fellow comrades which is being completely ignored by Vietnamese and Sri Lankans who get excited by the waves in the Indian Casino.
There is a hue and Cry that there is no farmgate pepper available in the terminal market, but according to Mr Jojan Malayil of Bafna Enterprises and the countrys largest exporter of Indian Origin black pepper in various forms said " I disagree to the statements which are coming from various corners as the national Exchanges who have so far not defaulted on Pepper deliveries whatever they trade at the end of the day is available for physical deliveries which are as good as physical pepper and is available in thousands of tones for those who require it but should be prepared to forget contract specifications . One has to see whether the domestic demand will continue at higher levels or the demand will dry up if the futures start dropping.
The Indian price tag of Asta pepper has moved to usd 3275-3300 pmt fob Cochin against Indonesians usd 3050-3100 fob Panjang and Vietnams usd 3100-3150 pmt fob Hochiminh and Brazil usd 2850 fob Belem.
Jennifer La Rive
Indian future delivery prices which got triggered from Friday with domestic traders paying up the asking prices of sellers as the pepper traders/stockiest are getting tired besides the speculators as the yearly average prices have been hovering around inr 145/-per kg for the garbled stuff and usd 140 for the farmgate pepper since 2006 june although other commodities have soared as high as 2 to 3 times of its value.
Interestingly since money talks the spot pepper prices have not moved up in tandem with the future delivery prices as operators are still not comfortable going long because fundamentals of the market are proving right.
The Indian casino players have been playing with statistics of Vietnam and Indonesian crop estimates and carry overs all got stunned with Vietnam exporting close to almost 40% more of its predicted crop numbers and Indonesia becoming a "akshya Patra" ( never ending source) for importers .
India the cheerleader hardly exports any of its origin pepper but trade millions of tones in the National Agri Casino ( where the price of pepper is different for same delivery although specifications are same ) Although Indonesia has increased the asking prices to usd 3050 to usd 3100 fob panjang surprisingly Vietnam and Brazil are keeping their tags much below to have more business. Cheer leader India has got its own pockets to park the pepper at very high prices to fellow comrades which is being completely ignored by Vietnamese and Sri Lankans who get excited by the waves in the Indian Casino.
There is a hue and Cry that there is no farmgate pepper available in the terminal market, but according to Mr Jojan Malayil of Bafna Enterprises and the countrys largest exporter of Indian Origin black pepper in various forms said " I disagree to the statements which are coming from various corners as the national Exchanges who have so far not defaulted on Pepper deliveries whatever they trade at the end of the day is available for physical deliveries which are as good as physical pepper and is available in thousands of tones for those who require it but should be prepared to forget contract specifications . One has to see whether the domestic demand will continue at higher levels or the demand will dry up if the futures start dropping.
The Indian price tag of Asta pepper has moved to usd 3275-3300 pmt fob Cochin against Indonesians usd 3050-3100 fob Panjang and Vietnams usd 3100-3150 pmt fob Hochiminh and Brazil usd 2850 fob Belem.
Jennifer La Rive
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