Kochi November 21 2010
With indian farmers releasing close to 5000 mt of black pepper stocks quite unexpectedly from the beginning of the month the tightness of the spot availability of the spice eased off and with 1085 mt stocks of so called mG-1 stocks made available to all the exporters from exchange platform ; the Black pepper futures currently running at a hefty premium will drop in the coming days and one is seeing ground reality of pepper trade currently according to the veterans of Pepper trade in India
We seldom see india as an origin seller when prices are low but they emerge as the principle source when prices peak commented a trader in Germany who didnt want to quote his name. There is no other origin like india who wil keep one crop below their beds and will show to the world when prices reach the usd 5000 mark he added.
Since farmgate pepper is continously availabe between Rs 10- 15 a kg depending on density of the material delivered to warehouses of exporters, major exporters are not running after exchange delivered pepper and in the recently matured November contract Nine exporters have together picked up only 50% of the total delivereis tendered by a major broking houses account of several clientse stocks were loosing validity on december 5th .
With continued availability of farmgate pepper and limited overseas demands currently and hardly any domestic demand, with new crop arrivals just 6 weeks away the expensive pepper futures are likely to fall on Ground reality although Funds will try to hold it for some more time trying to pass the hat to retail investors.
Weekend prices quoted in new York markets on friday 20th november were as follows
Brazil 560 g/l usd 4750 fob Belem Brazi BASTA usd 4850 fob Belem Indonesian ASTA usd 4950- 5050 fob panjnag Indian mg-1 asta usd 4900- 5100 fob cochin according to Newyourk based broking companies of spices.
Sham Nair
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Monday, November 08, 2010
India pepper needs long term strategy to stay ahead
November 05, 2010
Well, it seems like Black pepper from India will remain as hot favorite in the international market, as it is almost clear that supplies from Brazil and Indonesia will be inadequate in meeting the global demand, given big daddy Vietnam shows up only in January.
But latest reports also suggest that production from Vietnam will be lower by 10% at 90,000 tonne, compared to previous year. Further, if bad weather persists, Brazilian production will also be down by 40%.
So, who will benefit? Being the second largest producer after Vietnam, Indian pepper is definitely going to benefit from this global pepper production meltdown. Another supporting factor is the narrowing of the price gap between premium quality Indian pepper and other varieties. All these suggest the near term surge in market demand both locally and globally.
In fact, the rush is already evident with the price shooting up and springing over the primary target levels of 15150 earlier in March. If bad weather persist production will be dampened further and there is a good chance for the prices to breaching the 16,000 territory soon.
But the million dollar question is will India be able to handle this surge in international demand? Diseases, erratic climatic changes and obsolete agriculture methods had caused our output to slump to current projected level of 55,000 tonne from the once mighty 1,00,000 tonne. What might have caused this? Multi-crop planting policy in Kerala and Tamilnadu is indicated to be as the prime reason for this decline.
Currently, productivity of pepper in India is only 306 kg , while Vietnam has way ahead producing 1,200 kg – 1,300 kg per hectare. And forecast of International Pepper Community indicates that there will be a shortage of nearly 22, 216 tonnes in the 2010. the forecast also projects a significant rise in the global consumption to be in a range of 3,20,000 – 3,50,000 tonnes.
According to the Directorate of Arecanut and Spices Development, India is expected to produce around 53,000 tonne in 2009-10 , with Kerala contributing around 35,000 tonnes, up 40% from the same period a year ago.
Spices Board of India also points to similar figures with production figures at 55,000 tonnes and consumption figures at 44,000 tonnes, annually. Exports are expected to reach 25,000 tonnes, with imports around 14,000 tonnes. Production might have increased on a sequential basis, but the fact nevertheless is that farmers are increasing turning their face away from the once trust worthy Black Gold.
Falling prices is indicated to be as one amongst the many reasons. Price declines have also caused farmers to migrate to other crops which resulted in the decrease of farming area. Data suggests that there is a 0.3% decline in farming between 2005 and 2006 in Wayanad alone. Increasing cost of production is yet another area of concern to farmers.
For India to surge back to its golden age, answers should be found to all these vexing questions. May be it is now also the right time to voice all these concerns as experts from field will be here at Kochi to discuss all these matters.
Jointly organized by International Pepper Community and Spices Board, the meeting will discuss issues related to farming, production and export. Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam are the members of IPC with Papua New Guinea as the associate member. The meeting will be held at Kochi, starting November 8.
What intended to say is that the current edge provided by bad weather won’t last long and in no way can be depended upon as a positive indication on a long term basis. What we need to have is long term planning and its effective implementation.
So, the verdict is that Indian pepper for the time being will definitely get an upper hand in International market amid tight supply and lower production. But to sustain this upsurge we need to device long term plans that would help increase yield per hector as well as total production.
Fueled by strong buying interest both domestic and international, Pepper futures are currently trading high with spot price at Kochi rising to 20,200 per quintal for un-garbled pepper and 20,800 per quintal for MG-1.
Source: CommodityOnLine By Praveen
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-
Well, it seems like Black pepper from India will remain as hot favorite in the international market, as it is almost clear that supplies from Brazil and Indonesia will be inadequate in meeting the global demand, given big daddy Vietnam shows up only in January.
But latest reports also suggest that production from Vietnam will be lower by 10% at 90,000 tonne, compared to previous year. Further, if bad weather persists, Brazilian production will also be down by 40%.
So, who will benefit? Being the second largest producer after Vietnam, Indian pepper is definitely going to benefit from this global pepper production meltdown. Another supporting factor is the narrowing of the price gap between premium quality Indian pepper and other varieties. All these suggest the near term surge in market demand both locally and globally.
In fact, the rush is already evident with the price shooting up and springing over the primary target levels of 15150 earlier in March. If bad weather persist production will be dampened further and there is a good chance for the prices to breaching the 16,000 territory soon.
But the million dollar question is will India be able to handle this surge in international demand? Diseases, erratic climatic changes and obsolete agriculture methods had caused our output to slump to current projected level of 55,000 tonne from the once mighty 1,00,000 tonne. What might have caused this? Multi-crop planting policy in Kerala and Tamilnadu is indicated to be as the prime reason for this decline.
Currently, productivity of pepper in India is only 306 kg , while Vietnam has way ahead producing 1,200 kg – 1,300 kg per hectare. And forecast of International Pepper Community indicates that there will be a shortage of nearly 22, 216 tonnes in the 2010. the forecast also projects a significant rise in the global consumption to be in a range of 3,20,000 – 3,50,000 tonnes.
According to the Directorate of Arecanut and Spices Development, India is expected to produce around 53,000 tonne in 2009-10 , with Kerala contributing around 35,000 tonnes, up 40% from the same period a year ago.
Spices Board of India also points to similar figures with production figures at 55,000 tonnes and consumption figures at 44,000 tonnes, annually. Exports are expected to reach 25,000 tonnes, with imports around 14,000 tonnes. Production might have increased on a sequential basis, but the fact nevertheless is that farmers are increasing turning their face away from the once trust worthy Black Gold.
Falling prices is indicated to be as one amongst the many reasons. Price declines have also caused farmers to migrate to other crops which resulted in the decrease of farming area. Data suggests that there is a 0.3% decline in farming between 2005 and 2006 in Wayanad alone. Increasing cost of production is yet another area of concern to farmers.
For India to surge back to its golden age, answers should be found to all these vexing questions. May be it is now also the right time to voice all these concerns as experts from field will be here at Kochi to discuss all these matters.
Jointly organized by International Pepper Community and Spices Board, the meeting will discuss issues related to farming, production and export. Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam are the members of IPC with Papua New Guinea as the associate member. The meeting will be held at Kochi, starting November 8.
What intended to say is that the current edge provided by bad weather won’t last long and in no way can be depended upon as a positive indication on a long term basis. What we need to have is long term planning and its effective implementation.
So, the verdict is that Indian pepper for the time being will definitely get an upper hand in International market amid tight supply and lower production. But to sustain this upsurge we need to device long term plans that would help increase yield per hector as well as total production.
Fueled by strong buying interest both domestic and international, Pepper futures are currently trading high with spot price at Kochi rising to 20,200 per quintal for un-garbled pepper and 20,800 per quintal for MG-1.
Source: CommodityOnLine By Praveen
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-
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
SMX to launch first global pepper futures contract - What is your opinion ?
The article below might be the most important fact of the year or even of the all the modern history of Pepper Trade worldwide.
We propose a discussion of this item.
Please share your thoughts, opinions, ideas about that
SINGAPORE September 28, 2010(Commodity Online):
Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX) has announced it will launch world’s first international Black Pepper Futures Contract (Contract Symbol: SMPEPPER) platform with physical delivery-based settlement, as its first agricultural commodity derivatives product.
SMX has obtained approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to list SMPEPPER on its trading platform. SMX is at present working with relevant industry partners to create awareness about the new Contract, while collecting their feedback to streamline the physical settlement procedure.
Mr. Thomas J. McMahon, Chief Executive Officer of SMX,commented: “Exhaustive
research and close consultation with key industry players is one of our primary objectives. This latest contract constitutes noteworthy fruition of such efforts.”
“We are listing the most commonly traded grade of Black Pepper, from discussions and partnerships with key exporters and importers both on a regional and global basis. Trading hours will span all major markets, providing exciting opportunities for price discovery leading to global benchmarking. Managing price volatilities is a very crucial factor in agricultural products such as Black Pepper, where markets are unpredictable.
The marketplace seems excited by this latest development, and on our part
agriculture commodity derivatives is a key segment for expansion,” Mr. McMahon added.
Mr. Vijaykumar Iyengar, Managing Director of Agrocorp International Pte
Ltd, said: “Over the last two decades we have witnessed Vietnam overtake India as the world’s largest producer and exporter of Black Pepper. Overall the key producers are still in Asia, while the larger consuming nations are in the West. Such listings by SMX essentially bring all market players to the same table, ensuring efficient price discovery.”
Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Pepper Association, said: “Having a Black Pepper futures contract would give rise to natural price discovery which would benefit the entire value chain participants of Black Pepper.”Source: Commodity Online
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We propose a discussion of this item.
Please share your thoughts, opinions, ideas about that
SINGAPORE September 28, 2010(Commodity Online):
Singapore Mercantile Exchange (SMX) has announced it will launch world’s first international Black Pepper Futures Contract (Contract Symbol: SMPEPPER) platform with physical delivery-based settlement, as its first agricultural commodity derivatives product.
SMX has obtained approval from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to list SMPEPPER on its trading platform. SMX is at present working with relevant industry partners to create awareness about the new Contract, while collecting their feedback to streamline the physical settlement procedure.
Mr. Thomas J. McMahon, Chief Executive Officer of SMX,commented: “Exhaustive
research and close consultation with key industry players is one of our primary objectives. This latest contract constitutes noteworthy fruition of such efforts.”
“We are listing the most commonly traded grade of Black Pepper, from discussions and partnerships with key exporters and importers both on a regional and global basis. Trading hours will span all major markets, providing exciting opportunities for price discovery leading to global benchmarking. Managing price volatilities is a very crucial factor in agricultural products such as Black Pepper, where markets are unpredictable.
The marketplace seems excited by this latest development, and on our part
agriculture commodity derivatives is a key segment for expansion,” Mr. McMahon added.
Mr. Vijaykumar Iyengar, Managing Director of Agrocorp International Pte
Ltd, said: “Over the last two decades we have witnessed Vietnam overtake India as the world’s largest producer and exporter of Black Pepper. Overall the key producers are still in Asia, while the larger consuming nations are in the West. Such listings by SMX essentially bring all market players to the same table, ensuring efficient price discovery.”
Mr. Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Pepper Association, said: “Having a Black Pepper futures contract would give rise to natural price discovery which would benefit the entire value chain participants of Black Pepper.”Source: Commodity Online
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Thursday, September 23, 2010
Indian Pepper Mart Heading For Serious Trouble
Mumbai / The indian pepper mart is heading towards deep crisis in the next eight weeks unless export orders doesnt come to india or the exagerated 50,000 mt domestic consumption is not really there but instead still in the high 30 K . India onetime the worlds largest producer and exporter besides the largest consumer of black pepper has been becoming a net importer since last year with local indian farmers who do not want cash as banks dont accept cash without getting satisfied with the source of the money are better off keeping their produces under their beds rather than selling it and holding on to cash which they have no space to park. This years bull run has replenished the stocks in the National Commodity exchanges and warehouses of cash rich people who has invested in pepper mainly in the physical stocks of the exchanges. Now that the six monts maximum validity for tendering deliveries in contracts are getting expired in nearmonth October and November contracts for more than 3000 mt everyone is quizzing how this situation can overcome with no export orders since last eight weeks from industries who require pepper for winter and christmas/Newyear blend requirements other than from overseas traders who were playing with the market and currently struck not knowing what to do with the pepper they have covered thinking all others were short and will come to cover for their requirements. we have seen major exporters tendering physical deliveries in the last two expiry contracts are really eyebrow raising with the kind of volumes they do on exports and top of that delivering in the domestic pepper exchange . Although the total stock with the Comexes is only 4300 mt which is just 15 days export of Vietnam but it is too high for Indian exports of just 1000 mt a month on an average this year and most of it is imported pepper reexported.
According to market sources, there is a propaganda amongst some leading traditional pepper traders that the quality lying in the comexes warehouses are substandard and inferior and that is the reason why exporters are shying away from taking physical deliveries . On maturity in the contracts of National Exchanges.99% of the longs during the teure of the contracts are held by people who do not want even 100 grams of pepper for their use but accumulated positions purely for speculation only on buy calls by new born analysts in various leading commodity broking houses who are making charts and make calls for their livelihood against all fundamentals of the market and many times even do not know how to advise clients to exit once they are in the vicious circle .
The indian pepper futures as expected hit the 4% circuit down limits today the first day after maturing of september contracts with 341 mt spot pepper being picked up by couple of exporters who had little commitments and inturn was delivered by the National Cooperative and hedgers who wanted to free their money with the carry becoming neglible these days .
Indonesia the current cheapest ASTA Black pepper source has reduced their prices to usd 1.96/1.98/lb cfc 1.5 ny where as indian mg-1 asta prices despite todays 4% circuit down limits is usd 2.10/lb cfc 1.5 ny for nearby shipments. Vietnam prices were stable with origin shippers quoting usd 4050 pmt fob HCMC for 500 grams/litre pepper and usd 4300 pmt fob Hcmc for 550 grams/litre pepper. Where as brazilian ASTA pepper has come in line with the Indonesian ASTA pepper prices but the fact is it has become hard to find buyers globally for pepper currently.Indian domestic market is looking for marriages which happen every other day and festivals which are coming only in the second week of November as during marriages and festivals indians simply use plenty of pepper to make the pepper growers happy besides Commonwealth Games beginning in October which will halt the truck movements to and fro from Delhi.
Jennifer Larive/21 SEP 2010 21-30 HRS IST
According to market sources, there is a propaganda amongst some leading traditional pepper traders that the quality lying in the comexes warehouses are substandard and inferior and that is the reason why exporters are shying away from taking physical deliveries . On maturity in the contracts of National Exchanges.99% of the longs during the teure of the contracts are held by people who do not want even 100 grams of pepper for their use but accumulated positions purely for speculation only on buy calls by new born analysts in various leading commodity broking houses who are making charts and make calls for their livelihood against all fundamentals of the market and many times even do not know how to advise clients to exit once they are in the vicious circle .
The indian pepper futures as expected hit the 4% circuit down limits today the first day after maturing of september contracts with 341 mt spot pepper being picked up by couple of exporters who had little commitments and inturn was delivered by the National Cooperative and hedgers who wanted to free their money with the carry becoming neglible these days .
Indonesia the current cheapest ASTA Black pepper source has reduced their prices to usd 1.96/1.98/lb cfc 1.5 ny where as indian mg-1 asta prices despite todays 4% circuit down limits is usd 2.10/lb cfc 1.5 ny for nearby shipments. Vietnam prices were stable with origin shippers quoting usd 4050 pmt fob HCMC for 500 grams/litre pepper and usd 4300 pmt fob Hcmc for 550 grams/litre pepper. Where as brazilian ASTA pepper has come in line with the Indonesian ASTA pepper prices but the fact is it has become hard to find buyers globally for pepper currently.Indian domestic market is looking for marriages which happen every other day and festivals which are coming only in the second week of November as during marriages and festivals indians simply use plenty of pepper to make the pepper growers happy besides Commonwealth Games beginning in October which will halt the truck movements to and fro from Delhi.
Jennifer Larive/21 SEP 2010 21-30 HRS IST
Friday, September 17, 2010
Cloves trend
The International Cloves market too is showing a little weakness with Comoros quoting around USD 5100 /- PMT and Zanzibar Cloves new crop also coming down to USD 5300/-pmt and Indonesia is also quoting around USD 6000/- pmt fob levels.
IPRABA Report
IPRABA Report
Fall in Indian pepper futures drags other origins to follow suit
Mumbai/ september 17th/03 45 HRS IST/
The sudden sharp fall in the indian pepper futures of usd 225 pmt and the huge amount of stocks which are going to loose validfity for delivery in the National commodity exchange in the next nine weeks with hardly any export orders and major exporters have sold their stocks in the exchange platform as they could sell their stocks usd 500 pmt above other origins in the international market is mounting pressure on the bulls . The market without any reason has been inflated by muscle and money power with totally wrong propaganda about shortage, biz happening at higher prices with india and new generation analysts who had not seen black pepper contradicting veterans in the trade with little or no information or contacts with any overseas markets has literally wiped the money off from retail and small traders with their very invaluable advices in the form of buy calls.
Indonesia the current threat for all other ASTA Black pepper sellers in the world giving no clue regarding their current years production, carry over from previous years and exports during the year and keep on pressing for orders for september and October is driving buyers away from the market who are on hand to mouth buying.Besides current years crop of 22000 mt the country was having an undeclared carryover stock of 25000- 28000 mt which is quitely being sold off by the Indonesian exporters is the reason why the anticipated squeeze and price rise has not come into play yet.For sept and October shipments Indonesian origin sellers are quoting usd 4100- 4125 fob panjang and Brazil Asta new crop is offered at usd 4300 fob Belem against the current indian price of usd 4500 pmt fob cochin . The strong indian rupee against usd is also making indian prices high in the International market. Vietnam who has been holding on to the levels of usd 4150 pmt for their 500 g/l has dropped the prices to usd 4050 pmt and 550 g/l prices from usd 4350 has been dropped to usd 4220 pmt fob cochin. Since white pepper prices are higher the ASTA sellers are not keen to sell as converting it into white is more rewarding monetary wise for them.
The markets will see life only towards end of november or early december when Indonesia and Brazil slowly retreats from agressive selling after sold enough for the year according to experts in Cochin and we will see prices declining in the coming weeks and the October futures are likely to test Rs 180/kg .
Jennifer Larive
The sudden sharp fall in the indian pepper futures of usd 225 pmt and the huge amount of stocks which are going to loose validfity for delivery in the National commodity exchange in the next nine weeks with hardly any export orders and major exporters have sold their stocks in the exchange platform as they could sell their stocks usd 500 pmt above other origins in the international market is mounting pressure on the bulls . The market without any reason has been inflated by muscle and money power with totally wrong propaganda about shortage, biz happening at higher prices with india and new generation analysts who had not seen black pepper contradicting veterans in the trade with little or no information or contacts with any overseas markets has literally wiped the money off from retail and small traders with their very invaluable advices in the form of buy calls.
Indonesia the current threat for all other ASTA Black pepper sellers in the world giving no clue regarding their current years production, carry over from previous years and exports during the year and keep on pressing for orders for september and October is driving buyers away from the market who are on hand to mouth buying.Besides current years crop of 22000 mt the country was having an undeclared carryover stock of 25000- 28000 mt which is quitely being sold off by the Indonesian exporters is the reason why the anticipated squeeze and price rise has not come into play yet.For sept and October shipments Indonesian origin sellers are quoting usd 4100- 4125 fob panjang and Brazil Asta new crop is offered at usd 4300 fob Belem against the current indian price of usd 4500 pmt fob cochin . The strong indian rupee against usd is also making indian prices high in the International market. Vietnam who has been holding on to the levels of usd 4150 pmt for their 500 g/l has dropped the prices to usd 4050 pmt and 550 g/l prices from usd 4350 has been dropped to usd 4220 pmt fob cochin. Since white pepper prices are higher the ASTA sellers are not keen to sell as converting it into white is more rewarding monetary wise for them.
The markets will see life only towards end of november or early december when Indonesia and Brazil slowly retreats from agressive selling after sold enough for the year according to experts in Cochin and we will see prices declining in the coming weeks and the October futures are likely to test Rs 180/kg .
Jennifer Larive
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Pepper futures to crash more and India will come in line with International Market
Mumbai /15th Sept 2010 04 45 HRS
The Black pepper futures which were put astronomically high by speculators started falling as expected as the maturity of nearmonth september contract is approaching on next Monday.
The speculators whether they are bulls or bears have been playing with the market making the life of genuine pepper traders difficult making the national exchange platform an online casino without any mechanism to check the unfair play .
The government can close down the watchdog as they do not know how to regulate and control the exchange, said a past chairman of a regional bourse, before the entry of National Exchanges the FMC ( Forward Market Commission) used to suck the blood of the regional bourses inspite the bourses were run in a very systamatic manner, he added.
The pepper market in India has been media driven for quite sometime and the wrong informations which were conveyed to the innocent retail investors and general public by some vested interests who were inturn getting severly hurt these days according to our sources.
Even when a pound of pepper was not traded outside the country because of the price difference of usd 400- 500 pmt between indonesia and indian black pepper asta some of the media was giving false hope to many that indian pepper will be sought for exports because the stocks in Indonesia is exhausted and Vietnam finished selling and pepper will be available from that country only in Jan/Feb 2011.
But the fact is Vietnam has exported 7000 mt of pepper in the month of August also and Indonesia 4000 mt where as Indian imports was more than 1500 mt and the exports which included imported material was hardly 1000 mt.
United States of America, the worlds largest importer and user has imported 5630 mt of Black pepper and 602 mt White pepper and is a five year record imports and their total imports for the first seven months of the calendar year for Black pepper is 29,864 mt which again is a record and white pepper 3346 mt and thats the reason why even Indonesia and Brazil who are usd 400- 500 lower than India are not able to sell currently as the coverage by the importers in the United States is pretty decent and no rush is seen from importers to cover even 2011 first quarter.
The indian Black pepper futures is bought and kept by people who do not need a gram for their own use will have to sell off otherwise they will loose their shirt commented a veteran .
There is an old saying in Kerala from where most of the pepper is exported " unless the pepper crosses the seven seas dont play bullish for long otherwise you will be hurt badly".
Even when the British were ruling India the Queen of England got hurt playing with the Black Gold. The first eight months imports of pepper into the country has been 12000 mt where as the exports have been only hardly 10000 mt according to the trade and chamber of commerce so one should keep in mind most of the pepper exported out of the country is not indian origin because of the higher price tags of the country .
There is a potential that the market can drop another usd 200- 300 mt in the indian futures in the coming 6 weeks and india will be in the lime light again with its sterilised pepper for exports for the months of November/December and January 2011 according to the countries top exporter of pepper.
Jennifer La Rive
The Black pepper futures which were put astronomically high by speculators started falling as expected as the maturity of nearmonth september contract is approaching on next Monday.
The speculators whether they are bulls or bears have been playing with the market making the life of genuine pepper traders difficult making the national exchange platform an online casino without any mechanism to check the unfair play .
The government can close down the watchdog as they do not know how to regulate and control the exchange, said a past chairman of a regional bourse, before the entry of National Exchanges the FMC ( Forward Market Commission) used to suck the blood of the regional bourses inspite the bourses were run in a very systamatic manner, he added.
The pepper market in India has been media driven for quite sometime and the wrong informations which were conveyed to the innocent retail investors and general public by some vested interests who were inturn getting severly hurt these days according to our sources.
Even when a pound of pepper was not traded outside the country because of the price difference of usd 400- 500 pmt between indonesia and indian black pepper asta some of the media was giving false hope to many that indian pepper will be sought for exports because the stocks in Indonesia is exhausted and Vietnam finished selling and pepper will be available from that country only in Jan/Feb 2011.
But the fact is Vietnam has exported 7000 mt of pepper in the month of August also and Indonesia 4000 mt where as Indian imports was more than 1500 mt and the exports which included imported material was hardly 1000 mt.
United States of America, the worlds largest importer and user has imported 5630 mt of Black pepper and 602 mt White pepper and is a five year record imports and their total imports for the first seven months of the calendar year for Black pepper is 29,864 mt which again is a record and white pepper 3346 mt and thats the reason why even Indonesia and Brazil who are usd 400- 500 lower than India are not able to sell currently as the coverage by the importers in the United States is pretty decent and no rush is seen from importers to cover even 2011 first quarter.
The indian Black pepper futures is bought and kept by people who do not need a gram for their own use will have to sell off otherwise they will loose their shirt commented a veteran .
There is an old saying in Kerala from where most of the pepper is exported " unless the pepper crosses the seven seas dont play bullish for long otherwise you will be hurt badly".
Even when the British were ruling India the Queen of England got hurt playing with the Black Gold. The first eight months imports of pepper into the country has been 12000 mt where as the exports have been only hardly 10000 mt according to the trade and chamber of commerce so one should keep in mind most of the pepper exported out of the country is not indian origin because of the higher price tags of the country .
There is a potential that the market can drop another usd 200- 300 mt in the indian futures in the coming 6 weeks and india will be in the lime light again with its sterilised pepper for exports for the months of November/December and January 2011 according to the countries top exporter of pepper.
Jennifer La Rive
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