Last
week, after continuously decreasing for 2 weeks, the pepper price
quickly rebounded with a price increase of around 4% recorded. The
amount of pepper offered on the market is not profuse.
Although the market is facing many obstacles such as:
• Shipping costs continue to rise rapidly and are forecasted to remain high until 2025.
• Rising
raw material prices alongside longer-than-usual shipping voyages have
affected the cash flow of most producers and exporters. Liquidity in the
domestic market is often very low at many times.
However,
there are still signals indicating that the market will develop
sustainably in the coming time, especially in the fourth quarter of 2024
and the first quarter of 2025.
Let’s take a look at some export data for the past 9 months of the last 3 years and the forecast scenario for 9 months of 2024.
Year
ExportedQuantityThird Quarter (Metric ton)
ExportedQuantityFirst 9 months (Metric ton)
2021
46.072
156.202
2022
51.668
177.221
2023
51.399
204.385
2024
49.713
195.713
PleaseNote; third quarter 2024 and first 9 months 2024 is projection number.
Please see the REPORT FILE & FULL QUOTATION LIST by click to download.
In
recent times, price information on the website of the International
Pepper Association (IPC) about Vietnamese pepper prices has differed
greatly from the information provided by VSPA, and at times there were
errors. To avoid psychological fluctuations that lead to making
decisions that cause economic damage, we recommend that farmers, agents,
export companies, and foreign customers refer to other sources to
ensure more objectivity and reliability when deciding to buy/sell. VPSA
will try to update information about countries and export prices of
Vietnamese Pepper in the most accurate and timely manner.
According
to forecasts, in 6 months, Vietnam's export is estimated at about 28
thousand tons, equivalent to about 135 USD. Thus, there are still 7-8
months left until the new harvest (expected after the Lunar New Year
from February 2025) while the amount of goods left by people, agents and
businesses is not as much as VPSA reports. previously stated.
Pepper
price today June 26 is in the range of 144,000 - 146,000 VND/kg. The
International Pepper Community listed an increase in pepper prices in
Indonesia and Brazil, while continuing to decrease sharply in Vietnam.
Earlier this week, the domestic market had a second shock.
Earlier
this week, the domestic market had a sharp decline for the second time
since the beginning of the month. Along with that, export pepper prices
were adjusted to decrease continuously, causing the domestic market to
be affected.
On
June 12, domestic pepper prices reached a record level after many years
of low levels, reaching 180,000 VND/kg. Immediately after that, the
selling force at the peak pulled the price down to 20,000 VND/kg.
The market struggled within the threshold of 160,000 VND/kg for nearly 10 days then dropped sharply by 15,000 VND/kg.
Experts
say that in reality, when the price reaches 180,000 VND/kg, buyers
almost stand aside. Therefore, adjusting prices down is reasonable now.
However, what is the floor price for this reduction, and how many more
reductions are there?
Some
dealers have faced shortages when they sold out and were unable to buy
back when the market increased rapidly. Some agents holding farmers'
goods are now back to "squeezing" prices.
At
the end of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper
Community (IPC) listed Lampung (Indonesia) black pepper price at 7,112
USD/ton, an increase of 0.31%; Brazilian black pepper price ASTA 570 is
at 7,500 USD/ton, up 300 USD/ton; Kuching (Malaysia) ASTA black pepper
price is 7,500 USD/ton.
Muntok white pepper price was 9,056 USD/ton, up 0.32%; Malaysian ASTA white pepper price is at 8,800 USD/ton.
The
pepper and coffee markets have just experienced a sharp increase in
prices. Accordingly, coffee prices hit a record of nearly 120,000
VND/kg. And pepper exceeded 100,000 VND/kg after a long period of
crisis, sometimes just over 30,000 VND/kg in 2021.
Shortage
of supply while high demand is the main reason why prices of these two
products increased sharply. With pepper and coffee trees, after a long
period of price crisis, people have cut down quite a lot to switch to
other types of trees. In addition, bad weather has also affected output.
However,
behind that are stories of the industry with speculation, people
lacking motivation to return to pepper or stories of sustainable
development.
To
better understand the story of this industry, we had a conversation
with Mr. Le Duc Huy, General Director of Simexco Daklak - top 3 coffee
exporting enterprises and top 6 pepper exporting enterprises in the
country.
Mr. Le Duc Huy, General Director of Simexco Daklak (Photo: NVCC).
Reporter:
In recent times, pepper prices have increased due to lack of supply
because people previously cut down many of these trees. In your opinion,
is the fact that the price of pepper has exceeded 100,000 VND/kg enough
to attract people to return to this crop?
Mr. Le Duc Huy:
Pepper prices have increased in recent times because demand exceeds
supply. In the long term, the demand for spices will increase while
Vietnamese pepper has reached the point of aging and the current price
level still cannot stimulate people to grow more. However, it is
difficult to determine at what price people can return to pepper trees
because it depends on the prices of other rival trees such as durian,
passion fruit, coffee...
Even
when the price of pepper reaches 100,000 VND/kg, it is still not enough
to attract people to grow it again because compared to the profits from
other crops, especially durian, the income from pepper is still much
lower.
When
compared to coffee, the profit from pepper is still lower because
coffee farming is easier. Pepper plants are climbing plants and are
extremely vulnerable. The yield per tree of coffee is also much higher
than that of pepper.
In
addition, people have just experienced a pepper price crisis that has
lasted for many years, sometimes the price dropped to more than 30,000
VND/kg, so they do not have enough confidence to replant at this time.
Therefore,
inventory in the next 3-5 years will continue to decrease. In the long
term, pepper prices are unlikely to decrease further.
Reporter:
The current trend is that markets are tightening requirements on
maximum pesticide residues (MRL), especially the EU, which is a
counter-punch to the Vietnamese pepper industry, making output even more
difficult. heart recovery?
Mr. Le Duc Huy:
As I mentioned, pepper plants are very vulnerable, so the use of
fertilizers and pesticides is difficult to avoid. But this is also
something to worry about when the increasing standards of export markets
are also a barrier.
Looking
at the more positive aspect, this is a future trend, farmers will be
forced to follow the path of "clean" farming, minimizing the use of
chemical fertilizers, creating a good environment and landscape. .
We
ourselves also pursued the path of sustainable farming more than a
decade ago, along with intercropping many types of plants. Therefore,
linked households have also weathered the price storm without having to
cut down pepper trees. The current trend for small gardens is
sustainable and multi-crop planting.
As a result, the output product has very low pesticide residue and is sold at a good price.
Reporter:
The increase in pepper and coffee prices is good news for farmers, but
for export businesses, it is a big obstacle when they cannot buy goods
to deliver to customers because of lack of supply. How to solve the
problem of balancing the interests of all parties, meaning that both
farmers and businesses are "happy" and the market is healthier?
Mr. Le Duc Huy:
Exactly. The sharp increase in prices recently has caused many
businesses difficulties and so do we, because the supply of both pepper
and coffee is decreasing. But the difference between businesses is how
to respond to this situation.
Recently,
the Government and associations positioned Vietnam to become the
world's kitchen. We have become a country that produces consumer goods,
packaged goods, and jars for consumers to use; instead of raw export
like before.
Therefore,
when focusing on the processing story, we can import raw materials from
other countries to make consumer goods, when domestic supply is not
enough to meet the demand.
But
it is important that market participants (including farmers) need to
reduce speculative thinking. For producers, they need to supply products
to the market and only keep a portion. Avoid situations where producers
borrow to speculate and hoard goods. This is against market rules.
With
intermediary businesses, they should do well their role as connectors
and circulators, avoiding profiteering speculation: When people need
money, they can buy at good prices, and when export businesses need
goods, they can supply them. full.
Some
foreign companies in Vietnam such as Olam and Nedspice are doing very
well as connectors. They healthy the market. And export businesses need
to do a good job of harmonizing the interests of all parties, not
forcing prices on anyone.
Everyone
has their own responsibilities. But I must admit that it is very
difficult to do this. The market has many businesses participating in
the supply chain. Each business has a different mindset and strategy and
they always believe they are right.
Reporter:
Talking about the story of harmonizing interests, up to now, farmers
have been considered "low-ranked" in the supply chain. However, the
negotiating power of pepper and coffee farmers has gradually increased
in the last two years. What do you think about this?
Mr. Le Duc Huy:
This is very clear in the market and this trend will continue to
increase because agricultural land is increasingly shrinking but the
population is increasing, leading to increased demand for pepper and
coffee. It is inevitable that landowners will increasingly have an
advantage in the supply chain. This is a very clear rule. But if you
want an even better supply chain, the model of linking farmers into
cooperatives is still the most optimal and more effective.
If
done individually, each person makes a different style, different
fertilizers, different medicines in small quantities. If they link
together, they can synchronize the use of fertilizers and pesticides and
buy agricultural materials in large quantities and at cheaper prices.
Even
if done well, cooperatives can become exporters. At that time, the role
of intermediary businesses will weaken if they do not do well and do
not create any added value in the chain.
The
current trend is that manufacturers are getting closer to the final
consumer thanks to the development of logistics systems and online sales
platforms. It is normal for businesses that only worry about buying and
selling to be eliminated.
Reporter: So what do intermediary businesses like Simexco need to do to avoid being eliminated?
Mr. Le Duc Huy:
We have done many things to create added value and play a good role as
a bridge over the past decades. We link a system of 40,000 farmer
households to form groups to synchronize and better manage product
quality by instructing them on sustainable farming and deep processing.
From
those products, we introduce them to consumers, especially foreign
markets. At the same time, he is also the person who stands out to
commit to quality for distributors.
We
are happy if producers can talk to consumers. Because then, producers
know what the consumer market needs and what their requirements are so
they can proactively adjust, instead of being forced like before.
Pepper
price today June 25 is in the range of 145,000 - 146,000 VND/kg. This
year, with little inventory, most farmers kept their goods. The sharp
decline earlier this week may have had speculative elements. Agents kept
farmers' goods, now turning to pressurize prices.
This
year, with small inventories, most farmers kept their goods, in a
context where there was no financial pressure like in previous years.
The sharp decline earlier this week may have had speculative elements
from market participants. Agents kept farmers' goods, now turning to
pressurize prices.
In
addition, domestic pepper prices have decreased because the world
market is plummeting. In 2 recent consecutive trading sessions,
Vietnam's export pepper prices dropped sharply. Ahead of the Muslim
holiday Eid al-Adha, the market surged as buying increased. Right after
the holiday, the trading market returned to normal, causing prices to
fall sharply.
At
the end of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper
Community (IPC) listed Lampung (Indonesia) black pepper price at 7,090
USD/ton, down 9.62%; Brazilian black pepper price ASTA 570 was at 7,200
USD/ton, down 4.17% USD/ton; Kuching (Malaysia) ASTA black pepper price
is 7,500 USD/ton.
Muntok white pepper price was 9,027 USD/ton, down 7.36%; Malaysian ASTA white pepper price is at 8,800 USD/ton.
In
the first session of the week, both world and domestic pepper prices
adjusted sharply down after a period of moving sideways at the end of
last week.
The
International Pepper Community commented that last week showed mixed
reactions when Muslims around the world celebrated Eid al-Adha.
Accordingly,
in the South Asia region, India's domestic and international pepper
prices have continued to increase over the past 5 weeks. After 5 weeks
of recording increases, Sri Lankan domestic pepper prices decreased last
week.
In
Southeast Asia, although the Indonesian Rupiah decreased by 1% against
the USD (16,415 IDR/USD), both domestic and export pepper prices in this
country continued to increase since last week.
Malaysian
domestic pepper prices continued to increase in the past 2 weeks.
Furthermore, the export price of pepper in this country also recorded an
increase. Only Vietnam's domestic black pepper price recorded a
decrease last week. Other types are stable.
After
3 weeks of recording an increase, Brazilian black pepper prices
recorded a decrease last week. Prices of Chinese white pepper and
Cambodian black pepper are both stable and unchanged.
According
to data from the European Statistics Agency (Eurostat), Vietnam
continued to be the largest pepper supplier to the European Union (EU)
in the first 4 months of the year with a volume of 11,359 tons, an
increase of 25.1%. compared to the same period last year and accounted
for 61.5% of the region's total imports of this product.
Pepper imports in the EU are showing signs of recovery in the first months of 2024 after a decline last year.
Eurostat
data shows that the EU imported 18,474 tons of pepper from foreign
markets in the first 4 months of the year, worth 83.7 million EUR, an
increase of 22.9% in volume and 27% in value compared to the same period
last year. period 2023.
In
April alone, the amount of pepper imported into the EU reached its
highest level since the beginning of 2023 until now, with 5,440 tons, up
22.7% over the previous month and up nearly 40% over the same period.
This is also the fourth consecutive month that EU pepper imports
increased compared to the same period last year.
Source: Hoang Hiep compiled from Eurostat data
Regarding
the supply market, the EU imported a total of 11,359 tons of pepper
from Vietnam in the first 4 months of the year with a value of more than
48.5 million EUR, an increase of 25.1% in volume and 32.1% in value
compared to with the same period last year. With this result, Vietnam
continues to be a pepper supplier to the EU with a market share of 61.5%
of the region's total import volume of this product.
EU
pepper imports from other markets also increased sharply over the same
period last year such as: Brazil reached 3,443 tons, an increase of
25.3%; Indonesia reached 1,384 tons, an increase of 32.2%; India reached
952 tons, an increase of 9.9%.
The EU's average imported pepper price
from Vietnam reached 4,273 EUR/ton, from Brazil it was 3,665 EUR/ton,
Indonesia 5,509 EUR/ton, and India alone reached 6,646 USD/ton.
In addition to competitive prices, Vietnamese pepper export
businesses have an advantage over some exporting countries such as
India, Malaysia, Indonesia,... thanks to the EVFTA Agreement, which
helps reduce import taxes on ground or crushed pepper. EU reduced from 4% to 0%.
Source: Hoang Hiep compiled from Eurostat data
In
the first 4 months of the year, the top pepper importing countries in
the EU included Germany with 5,829 tons, accounting for 31.6% of the
market share; Netherlands 4,588 tons, accounting for 24.8%; France 2,827
tons, accounting for 15.3%... The three countries mentioned above
account for 71.7% of the EU's total pepper imports from the world.
Besides domestic consumption, importers also re-export a significant portion of pepper to other countries in the region.
Last year, due to the impact of economic recession, inflation
and high interest rates, EU pepper imports from foreign markets only
reached 50,264 tons, worth 217.4 million EUR, a decrease of 20.4% in
terms of value. quantity and decrease 30.4% in value compared to 2022.
According
to the Center for Promotion of Imports from Developing Countries (CBI),
Europe does not produce pepper, so the region's consumption mainly
depends on imported supplies.
This
agency also said that up to 95% of pepper imported into the EU is
consumed in countries in the region and only 5% of that is re-exported
to countries outside Europe.
Black
pepper consumption in Europe is expected to grow steadily in the near
future, with an expected increase of about 0.5% in 2023 and 1.8% in
2024.
CBI
forecasts that pepper imports from European countries will grow by 1-2%
each year. The European market offers a price advantage over Asian
markets for high quality and sustainably produced black pepper.
Meanwhile,
the Ministry of Industry and Trade, citing sources from the Vietnam
Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), said that the EU is a potential
market for Vietnamese pepper exports. However, to take advantage of
these opportunities, the pepper industry must move towards sustainable
production, because more and more European consumers are demanding
certifications that ensure products are sustainable.
Recently,
the EU market's requirements and regulations on non-tariff barriers
continue to increase and become increasingly strict. This market also
continuously has warnings about pesticide residues as well as increasing
the frequency of control and tightening MRLs regulations for food in
general, including Vietnamese spices.
Currently,
the EU has issued more than 500 criteria on MRL and continues to have
more and more new criteria issued. The criteria issued later are
becoming more and more difficult and strict. At the same time, the area
of active ingredients allowed to remain regulated is also wider.
The
amount of US pepper imports increased by 24.5% over the same period
last year. Of which, Vietnam is the main supplier, accounting for 76% of
the market share.
According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), in the first 5 months of the year, Vietnam exported
a total of 114,424 tons of pepper of all kinds with a turnover of
493.1 million USD, down 13.2%. In terms of volume, however, export
turnover increased by 20.6% over the same period last year.
In
particular, the US surpassed China to return to the leading position in
Vietnam's largest pepper export market with a volume of 30,466 tons,
accounting for 26.6% of the market share and an increase of 44.4% over
the same period. period.
According to data from the US International Trade Commission (USITC), the country's demand for pepper imports is increasing strongly again after two consecutive years of decline due to the impact of inflation and rising interest rates.
By
the end of April this year, the US imported 27,872 tons of pepper from
the world worth 130.53 million USD, up 24.5% in volume and 24.2% in
value compared to the same period last year. .
In
April alone, the amount of imported pepper was 8,007 tons, up 39% over
the previous month and up 32.8% over the same period in 2023.
Source: Hoang Hiep compiled data from USITC
Notably,
Vietnam continued to be the largest pepper supplier to the US in the
first 4 months of the year, accounting for 76% of the market share with a
volume of 21,259 tons, worth more than 97.3 million USD, an increase of
19.2% in terms of sales. quantity and increased 21.5% in value compared
to the same period last year.
In
addition, the US also increased pepper imports from other markets such
as: India reaching 2,258 tons, an increase of 20.8%; Indonesia reached
2,233 tons, an increase of 133.6%; Brazil reached 1,106 tons, an
increase of 59.2%.
Vietnam's average export price of pepper
to the US in the first 4 months of the year reached 4,576 USD/ton, up
1.9% over the same period last year. At the same time, it is higher than
Brazil's price of 4,017 USD/ton, but lower than 4,933 USD/ton of
Indonesia and 5,000 USD/ton of India.
Vietnamese
pepper holds a large market share in the US thanks to its good price
and increasingly high quality, making it popular in this market.
Vietnam's pepper industry is also highly appreciated for its processing
capacity with the rate of processed goods accounting for about 30% of
total export turnover.
In
terms of consumption demand, the US is currently the world's largest
pepper importer. In the past 3 years, the US has spent 320 - 440 million
USD/year to import this spice, equivalent to 19 - 20% of global pepper
trade.
Source: Hoang Hiep compiled data from USITC
In
recent times, the global pepper supply has decreased while demand has
increased from the US and some other major markets, pushing the price of
this commodity to its highest level in the past 8 years.
In
Vietnam's domestic market, as of June 21, black pepper prices were
traded at 156,000 - 160,000 VND/kg, nearly doubling compared to the
beginning of the year and 2.2 times higher than the same period last
year.
However, this price has decreased by about 20,000 VND/kg compared to the peak of 180,000 VND/kg reached on June 11.
The
Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) forecasts
that pepper prices will continue to increase in the near future, but the
growth rate will slow down. There is currently a shortage of pepper
supply while demand has recovered strongly from major markets such as
Europe, the US and China. This year's pepper output from Vietnam and
many major producing countries is forecast to decline, due to the impact
of the El Nino phenomenon and the decline in cultivated area.
According
to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, the prolonged drought
weather phenomenon has led to a 10% decrease in Vietnam's pepper output
this year to about 170,000 tons compared to last year, the lowest level
in 5 years. via.
Meanwhile,
just through the first 5 months of the year, Vietnam has exported over
114,000 tons, equivalent to 67% of output. This shows that the supply
for export is not much left.
“Although
pepper prices are forecast to continue to increase in the near future,
the management agency recommends not massively expanding planting areas
but focusing on investing and taking care of intensive farming to grow
pepper. sustainable and stable development,” said the Import-Export
Department.
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