Pepper Market on November 19, 2024

 

Pepper Market on November 19, 2024: Continued to move sideways across the board, exports earned nearly 1.2 billion USD

Posted onNovember 19, 2024by VPA

November 19

Pepper prices today  (November 19) continued to move sideways in the range of 139,000 - 140,000 VND/kg. Accumulated from the beginning of the year to November 15, Vietnam exported 234,824 tons of pepper, earning 1.17 billion USD, down 3.1% in volume but up 47.3% in value compared to the same period last year.

In the domestic market

See more:  Pepper price today November 18

Pepper prices  today  continue to remain stable at 139,000  - 140,000 VND /kg  in key provinces and cities.

Of which, traders in Dak Nong province are purchasing pepper at the highest price of 140,000 VND/kg. Next is Dak Lak province with 139,500 VND/kg.

In Gia Lai, Ba Ria - Vung Tau, Binh Phuoc and Dong Nai provinces,  pepper prices   are being purchased at 139,000 VND/kg.

In the world market

Update from the International Pepper Community (IPC), at the end of the most recent trading session, world black pepper prices had no new fluctuations.

Indonesian Lampung black pepper is listed at USD 6,470/ton, Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper is priced at USD 6,000/ton, and Malaysian Kuching black pepper is priced at USD 8,400/ton.

 Vietnam's  export  prices of 500 g/l and 550 g/l black pepper continue to fluctuate in the range of 6,200 - 6,500 USD/ton.

Update pepper information

Preliminary statistics from VPSA show that in the first 15 days of November, Vietnam exported 8,082 tons of pepper of all kinds, with a total turnover of 55.4 million USD, down 10.6% in volume and 5% in turnover compared to the first half of October.

Nedspice, Tran Chau and Olam Vietnam were the three largest exporters in the first half of November, reaching 988 tons, 895 tons and 865 tons respectively. Meanwhile, the largest export market for Vietnamese pepper was still the US, reaching 2,362 tons, accounting for 29.2% of the market share.

Accumulated from the beginning of the year to November 15, Vietnam exported a total of 234,824 tons of pepper, earning 1.17 billion USD, down 3.1% in volume but up 47.3% in value compared to the same period last year. The average export price of pepper reached 5,129 USD, up sharply by 52.1% (1,757 USD/ton).

On the other hand, in the first half of November, Vietnam imported  2,484   tons of pepper, worth 14.3 million USD, an increase of 8.2% compared to the first half of October. Olam Vietnam and Harris Spice were the two main importers, with 894 tons, accounting for 36.0%, and 530 tons, accounting for 21.3%. Meanwhile, Indonesia continued to be the largest pepper supplier to Vietnam, accounting for 82.3%, reaching 2,045 tons.

Thus, from the beginning of the year to November 15, Vietnam imported 31,080 tons of pepper, worth 145.6 million USD, a sharp increase over the same period and far exceeding the 26,538 tons that businesses imported in the whole year of 2023.

The Import-Export Department forecasts that in the last months of this year, Vietnam's pepper export activities will not be favorable because domestic supply is limited and demand from China remains low.

It is expected that in early 2025, Vietnam's pepper exports will be favorable thanks to the expected sharp increase in demand from the Chinese market. Meanwhile, after Indonesia's most recent harvest, the world's pepper supply has not been significantly supplemented until February 2025. This is considered a favorable factor when Vietnam enters the new harvest in 2025.

According to VietnamBiz.vn

R

As Guatemala output drops, Indian cardamom may gain flavour

 

As Guatemala output drops, Indian cardamom may gain flavour

Cardamom exporters are pinning hopes on shipping more quantities to the Gulf markets ahead of Ramadan by February 2025, thanks to a reported drop in production in Guatemala.

Quoting reports, exporters said the Guatemala 202425 harvest was projected to drop by 44 per cent from last year. Crop damage from thrips alone was estimated at 34 per cent. Total production in Guatemala was down to 18,884 tonnes. SB Prabhakar, a planter in Idukki, said cardamom production in Guatemala is projected to be around 17,000 to 20,000 tonnes, 4050 per cent lower than last season. The first round picking in Guatemala

has been completed, with a poor litter weight of 340 gm as growers are harvesting early to cash in on higher prices. This will help India export more cardamom ahead of the Ramadan festival by February 2025.

Read also:
http://peppertrade.blogspot.com/2024/11/indian-cardamom-poised-for-ramadan.html

PRICES HIGHER

However, he said the Indian crop is also down 50 per cent this season. As old crop arrivals should be exhausted this month, prices are bound to increase. Guatemala cardamom prices are trading about 30 per cent higher than Indian cardamom. This will allow Indian produce to be exported in good quantities in the next four to five months. “We can expect Indian cardamom prices to reach ₹3,500 per kg during January to March of 2025,” he said. SKM Dhanavanthan, a cardamom exporter in Bodinayakanur, said Ramadan sales have yet to pick up, and given the tight crop situation in both India and Guatemala, meeting demand in terms of price and quantity will be challenging. While the current high prices suit regular retail sales and might cover domestic needs in the coming months, excessive price hikes could disrupt the industry, severely limiting export volume, he said.

However, he warned that MiddleEast buyers — a traditional market for Indian cardamom — were becoming increasingly cautious of the current inflated prices in the domestic market.

He said speculation and the recent addition of private auctions without any regulatory control were behind the sudden price surge. This deters foreign buyers as they face risk in reselling at profitable levels.

The price surge has opened the Indian market to cheaper imports, especially from Guatemala, which is now sold at lower prices, further undercutting Indian cardamom domestically. If left unchecked, Indian cardamom could lose its competitive edge, both locally and internationally, he said.

PC Punnoose, General Manager of KCPMC, one of the auctioneers, said they had received overseas enquiries after Diwali and the stabilisation of prices above the ₹2,500plus level was a positive sign. However, snail infestation in plantations was a recent threat that was affecting flowers of cardamom plants, he said.

Article Name:As Guatemala output drops, Indian cardamom may gain flavour

Publication:BusinessLine (Chennai)

Start Page:10

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Pepper Market November 12, 2024

 

Pepper Market November 12, 2024: Downward trend covers domestic and world markets

Posted onNovember 12, 2024by VPA

November 12

Pepper prices today (November 12) fluctuated at 138,000 - 139,000 VND/kg, down slightly by 1,500 - 2,000 VND. In the world, pepper export prices of many countries also decreased sharply.

Update pepper information

Mr. Hoang Phuoc Binh, Vice President of the Chu Se Pepper Association (Gia Lai), said that the price in Vietnam decreased because Indonesia had just entered the harvest season. On the other hand, because it was the beginning of the  coffee  season  , many agents took the opportunity to sell pepper in stock to buy coffee.

Mr. Binh predicts that the price of pepper in the 2025 crop will be higher than in the 2024 crop (at its highest, it will be 160,000 VND/kg). The primary reason is that the prolonged heat in early 2024 is greatly affecting pepper crop productivity, leading to a continued decrease in output in 2025.

Not only Vietnam, output is also forecast to decrease in many other countries. Meanwhile, most pepper growers in Vietnam currently have other sources of income from coffee, durian, etc., so they are not in a hurry to sell after harvest but will wait until they see a better price, according to  Nong Nghiep Newspaper .

Regarding the world market, the Import-Export Department  forecasts   that in the short term, world pepper prices will fluctuate in a downward trend. However, the downward trend will not last long due to limited supply and increased import demand due to seasonal factors.

In major import markets, demand increased in the US, EU and Asia, but remained sluggish in the Middle East and China. Significantly reduced inventory levels caused people and dealers to limit sales.

Brazil is currently the world's second largest producer and exporter of black pepper, accounting for 17-18% of global supply. However, due to reduced production, Brazil's pepper exports in the 2024 crop will decrease for the third consecutive year.

Meanwhile, Vietnam's new pepper crop in 2025 is expected to be delayed by 1 month. This will create a certain shortage in supply, thereby positively affecting world pepper prices.

According to VietnamBiz.vn

Indian Cardamom Poised for Ramadan Demand Amid Guatemala Shortfall

 

Indian Cardamom Poised for Ramadan Demand Amid Guatemala Shortfall

 

Published 11-11-2024, 02:26 pm

Updated 11-11-2024, 09:15 pm

 

With Guatemala's cardamom production for 2024-25 predicted to fall by 40-50%, India's cardamom industry is preparing for a possible export boost ahead of Ramadan in February 2025. Lower supply from Guatemala, combined with crop damage from thrips, has pushed prices upward, giving Indian exporters a unique advantage despite a decline in India’s own production. While Indian prices are expected to climb to ₹3,500 per kg in early 2025, exporters warn that high domestic prices and speculation could deter international buyers, especially from the Middle East. However, stabilization above the ₹2,500 level has generated renewed overseas interest, suggesting a mixed outlook for India’s cardamom sector.

Key Highlights

# Guatemala's cardamom production drops by 40-50%, boosting Indian export prospects.

# India’s own production is down 50%, driving domestic prices higher.

# Indian cardamom prices expected to reach ₹3,500/kg in early 2025.

# Middle Eastern buyers cautious due to India’s current high prices.

# Speculation and unregulated auctions could impact India's market competitiveness.

Indian cardamom prices are expected to climb as demand builds ahead of Ramadan, with Guatemala, the largest producer, reporting a 40-50% decline in production for the 2024-25 season. Damage from thrips and other factors has reduced Guatemala’s output to around 17,000 to 20,000 tonnes, giving India a potential export edge in Gulf markets. The scarcity in Guatemala has driven its cardamom prices to trade 30% higher than Indian cardamom, positioning Indian exports favorably to meet the demand spike during Ramadan in February 2025.

Indian growers, however, are also facing a reduced crop, with output down nearly 50% this season. The domestic supply shortage is projected to increase prices further, with rates potentially reaching ₹3,500 per kg by early 2025. Planters in Idukki, anticipates that these higher prices will provide some relief to exporters amid limited supply. The high demand and limited stocks could result in an ideal scenario for cardamom traders as Ramadan approaches.

However, exporters caution that inflated prices could restrict export volumes, especially with Middle Eastern buyers hesitant to commit amid India’s current high prices. The emergence of private, unregulated auctions has also spurred price speculation, raising concerns about market stability. The inflated prices may also encourage cheaper imports from Guatemala, potentially undercutting India’s position in both local and export markets.

Despite challenges, there are positive signals, as indicated by a recent increase in overseas inquiries after Diwali. With prices stabilizing above ₹2,500, the industry is cautiously optimistic. However, crop damage from snail infestation adds further uncertainty, as it impacts new panicles and flowers, risking additional losses in an already tight supply scenario.

Finally

India’s cardamom market is set for Ramadan exports despite high prices, but regulatory checks on speculation may be crucial to maintain competitiveness.

https://in.investing.com/news/commodities-news/indian-cardamom-poised-for-ramadan-demand-amid-guatemala-shortfall-4520081

 

Pepper exports to the Chinese market are expected to increase sharply in early 2025

 

Industry and Trade Newspaper

November 10, 2024

Pepper exports to the Chinese market in the first 10 months of 2024 decreased by 84% and are forecast to increase sharply again in early 2025.

There is a shift in the market and types of pepper exported,

According to preliminary statistics of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, in the month of October 2024, Vietnam exported 18.493 tons of pepper of all kinds with a total export turnover of 120,2 million USD. The average export price of black pepper in the month reached 6.284 USD/ton, down 28 USD, and white pepper reached 8.029 USD/ton, up 191 USD. The United States remained the largest export market in October, accounting for 10%, reaching 27,7 tons, down 5.128% compared to September. Next were the markets: Hong Kong reached 8,5 tons, UAE reached 9 tons, Netherlands reached 1.784 tons and Germany reached 1.382 tons.

In the first 10 months of 2024, pepper exports will earn 1,1 billion USD.

 

By the end of October 2024, Vietnam had exported 219.387 tons of pepper of all kinds, of which black pepper reached 193.892 tons and white pepper reached 25.495 tons. Total export turnover reached more than 1,1 billion USD, of which black pepper reached 881,6 million USD and white pepper reached 162,6 million USD. Compared to the same period last year, the export volume decreased by 1,9% (black pepper decreased by 3,3%, white pepper increased by 10,8%), but the export turnover increased by 48,0%. The average export price of black pepper in 10 months reached 4.971 USD/ton, an increase of 1.528 USD and white pepper reached 6.626 USD/ton, an increase of 1.671 USD compared to the same period in 2023.

Olam Vietnam is the largest exporter in the first 10 months of 2024, reaching 23.160 tons, accounting for 10,6% and increasing by 51,1% over the same period. Next are enterprises such as Phuc Sinh reaching 20.118 tons, accounting for 9,2%, increasing by 58,2%; Nedspice Vietnam reaching 17.014 tons, accounting for 7,8%, increasing by 10%; Haprosimex JSC reaching 16.002 tons, accounting for 7,3%, increasing by 77,5% and Tran Chau reaching 14.031 tons, accounting for 6,4% and decreasing by 0,8%...

The United States is the largest export market for Vietnamese pepper, accounting for 28,5%, reaching 62.553 tons, up 46,8% over the same period last year. Next are the markets: UAE reaching 14.540 tons, accounting for 6,6%, up 45,0%; Germany reaching 13.737 tons, accounting for 6,3%, up 77,2%; India reaching 9.428 tons, accounting for 4,3%, down 10,5% and the Netherlands reaching 9.295 tons, accounting for 4,2%, up 41,2% over the same period. China is the 6th largest export market of Vietnam reaching 9.252 tons, but compared to the same period, the export volume decreased by 84%.

Quarter III/2024, pepper price on the market world remained high, especially in August and September. The reason is said to be limited supply and increased import demand from markets. Entering the month of October 2024, pepper prices decreased due to sell-offs due to liquidity needs. In addition, the world pepper supply was supplemented from Brazil and Indonesia, while low demand from China affected pepper prices on the world market. Although it decreased sharply compared to the end of the month of September 2024, pepper prices in October 2024 still remained high.

In the third quarter of 2024, Vietnam's pepper exports will shift significantly. If in the second quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2023, Asia was Vietnam's largest pepper exporting region, then in the third quarter of 2024, there will be a shift to the Americas.

Accordingly, the proportion of Vietnam's pepper exports to the Americas increased from 27,63% of total turnover in the third quarter of 2023 to 39,23% in the third quarter of 2024. In contrast, the proportion of Vietnam's pepper exports to the Asian region decreased from 41,76% in the third quarter of 2023 to 28,66% in the third quarter of 2024 (mainly due to reduced exports to the Chinese market). In the first 9 months of 2024, Vietnam's pepper exports to most continents increased sharply (thanks to increased prices) compared to the same period last year, except for Oceania.

In the third quarter of 2024, the structure of exported pepper types has shifted compared to the third quarter of 2023. Accordingly, Vietnam increased the export of ground black pepper and ground white pepper, the proportion increased from 14,89% and 5,06% in the third quarter of 2023 to 16,91% and 4,47% in the third quarter of 2024. This shows that Vietnam's pepper industry has shifted to exporting processed pepper, instead of focusing on exporting raw pepper as before.

Regarding the EU market, on November 4, 2024, the European Commission published Implementing Regulation (EU) 2024/2794 amending Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/1378 concerning the recognition of certain bodies/entities performing organic control and certification in third countries for organic products imported into the EU pursuant to Article 46 of Regulation (EU) 2018/848 of the European Parliament and of the Council. This Regulation amends Annex II of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/1378 to list certain bodies/entities recognized by the EU to perform organic control and certification services for groups of products imported into the EU.

“In accordance with the new EU organic regulation EC 2018/848, in order to ensure transparency and meet higher requirements for organic assessment, the list of certification bodies that can carry out organic assessment according to the new regulation has been updated”, Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association said.

Three new certification bodies have been added to the list, bringing the total number of entities that can conduct new EU organic assessments in Vietnam to 12. These organizations have been granted the authority and capacity to conduct organic assessments according to the new EU standards in Vietnam.

The current CB list includes organizations that can assess according to the EC 2018/848 organic standard in Vietnam. Each CB is capable of assessing different categories depending on its competence and scope of licensing. The categories are clearly shown in the table, helping organic producers and exporters to choose the certification organization that suits their specific needs.

Expanding this list not only helps meet the growing demand for organic certification in Vietnam but also contributes to ensuring the quality and reputation of organic products exported to the EU market.

Pepper export activities are forecasted to be unfavorable in the short term.

In the short term, world pepper prices are forecast to fluctuate in a downward trend. However, the downward trend will not last long due to limited supply and increased import demand due to seasonal factors.

In major import markets, demand increased in the United States, the EU and Asia, but remained sluggish in the Middle East and China. Inventory levels have fallen significantly, causing farmers and dealers to limit sales. Brazil is currently the world's second largest producer and exporter of black pepper, accounting for 17-18% of global supply.

However, Brazil’s pepper exports for the 2024 crop are expected to decline for the third consecutive year due to low production. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s new 3 pepper crop is expected to be delayed by one month, which will have a positive impact on world pepper prices.

The Import-Export Department forecasts that Vietnam's pepper export activities will not be favorable in the last months of this year due to low domestic supply and low demand from China.

It is expected that in early 2025, Vietnam's pepper exports will be favorable thanks to the expected sharp increase in demand from the Chinese market. Meanwhile, after Indonesia's most recent harvest, until the month of February 2025, the world's pepper supply has not been significantly supplemented. This is considered a favorable factor when Vietnam enters the new harvest in 2025.

Sources: https://congthuong.vn/xuat-khau-ho-tieu-sang-thi-truong-trung-quoc-du-bao-se-tang-manh-vao-dau-nam-2025-357913.html

 

Pepper Market on November 10, 2024

 

Pepper Market on November 10, 2024: Last week's market decreased by 500 - 1,000 VND

Posted onNovember 10, 2024by VPA

November 10

Pepper prices today (November 10) fluctuated at 139,500 - 141,000 VND/kg. Overall, pepper prices continued to decrease slightly by 500 - 1,000 VND in the Southeast region throughout the week.

 

 

In the world market

Updated from the International Pepper Community (IPC), at the end of last week, the price of Indonesian Lampung black pepper was listed at 6,706 USD/ton, a slight increase of 0.3% compared to the beginning of the week.

In contrast, Kuching Malaysia black pepper prices fell 1.2% last week to $8,400/ton. Similarly, Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper prices also fell 1.6% to $6,300/ton.

 Vietnam's  export  prices of 500 g/l and 550 g/l black pepper continued to move sideways in the range of 6,500 - 6,800 USD/ton.

Update pepper information

According to information from  Dak Nong Newspaper , according to Mr. Le Anh Son, Director of Binh Minh Cooperative in Ea Po commune, Cu Jut district, the pepper market has fluctuated strongly since the beginning of 2024.

In 2023, pepper prices were at 65,000 - 70,000 VND/kg, but by 2024 they fluctuated at 140,000 - 150,000 VND/kg, at times reaching 160,000 VND/kg.

Vietnam's pepper is mainly exported and the reduced supply is the main reason for the high price. This year, businesses have had difficulty purchasing pepper due to reduced output.

Mr. Son said that in the past, most pepper farmers harvested, dried, and transported all the products to agents and businesses for consignment or sale.

However, in recent years, farmers have focused on understanding market information and changing the way they sell. Farmers build warehouses to store pepper at home and only sell it when they need money.

Farmers have become more involved in the process of determining pepper prices. Farmers rarely consign, leading to the chain of purchasing systems from agents, businesses, and export units not knowing exactly the pepper output of Vietnam in general, and Dak Nong in particular. This is also a factor contributing to the increase in pepper prices.

The above changes are in accordance with the law of supply and demand of the market. This forces businesses, including pepper buyers and sellers, to change.

According to Mr. Son, if businesses continue to purchase pepper by signing fake contracts with exporters as before, they will easily face the risk of a shortage of goods.

Dak Nong has the largest area and output of coffee and pepper in Vietnam. Currently, the province has about 33,800 hectares of pepper, with an output of 70,685 tons; 131,000 hectares  of coffee   , with an output of 360,000 tons.

According to VietnamBiz.vn

 

 

MADAGASCAR and CLOVE UPDATE 7th NOVEMBER, 2024

November 8, 2024

MADAGASCAR  and  CLOVE  UPDATE  7th  NOVEMBER, 2024

MANANARA,  Madagascar, 7th November, 2024:-   Clove  is on fire !   No doubt.   Madagascar local price is really highly bullish as of now.   This year was a history in Madagascar – that  harvest across all regions of Madagascar started at the same time;  opened at same price which was much higher than last year;  and now, harvest 75%--80% finished through out Madagascar !  This is history !   Never happens like this in Madagascar.

Normally, in Madagascar,  the usual pattern used to be – South Madagascar [regions like  Vangaindrano, Farafangana, Manakkara, Mahanoro etc]  clove harvest starting in August;  Mid North Madagascar [locations like  Fenerive, Vavataeina, Mahmpoo, Sonaeranou etc.]   clove harvest starting by mid September;  and  North Madagascar  [Regions like Manananara,  Marenchotre, Ambanja etc]  harvest starting in  November and extending upto  February-March.      However,  this season,  full of Madagascar harvest started by 2nd half of August and September, and now  by November almost  75%--80% harvest finished and stock  at home of either farmers or stockists !!  And  holding capacity of Madagascar farmers and stockists has increased, and no one want to sell stock at lower price level !   They demand higher price or they do not want to sell;  and they propose to hold  back the stock expecting higher price. !

The expectation of farmers and stockists is worth for them;  as the local market opened in September at Ariary 20,000 per kg,  and now in November, the local price has reached  27000 to 29000;  and at some corners even at  30,000 for raw material !  A price jump of almost 40—50% in  two months time !!

EXPORT OFFERS:

Seriously  no exporter started public offer.  Some exporters are giving offers to their regular customers privately.  All exporters are also waiting to see the price movement.    Some speculators and forward sellers had offered  in September and October  USD 7300 to 7500 for December shipment ;  But all that would end up in default only – no doubt.   In September and in October, I wrote in my blog, all such forward offers are only to default, and with mal intention.  In September itself,  I had indicated,  market looks very firm.

As of today, 7th November,  my view is that   a genuine offer cannot be below USD 8400 !   Last 3 weeks,  weekly increase in clove price is almost USD 200 per Mt !  And with that kind of price escalation,  I do not feel any exporter would be able to give lower price offer for business.

My advice to all buyers and importers also,  please do not look for  lower price only.  You all have seen from Indonesia,  how much default happened in last 3 months !   All lower price contracts [price at  USD 6000 to 6500 from Indonesia]  90% defaulted;   and  even contracts at USD 6800-7300 were also shipped with forest clove and old mix !     When looking for only  lower price,  this is the problem.  And Madagascar is “”famous”” for such lower priced offer and default and sellers vanishing after taking advance !  Hence respected  importers and buyers, please be careful.  Do not look for only lower price.

STOCK POSITION:

I used to say continuously,  exact crop estimation is IMPOSSIBLE,  and no one is doing or no one can do.  S  In Africa, Govt has no successful mechanism to conduct survey of crop;  and   international agencies from  UN also depend on certain private estimates only.   And after harvest,  no one is bringing out their crop immediately;  all goes to stock and wait for higher price.    While moving through different villages, what we are seeing  on the ground reality is that,  enough stock available.  But not selling.  Waiting to fetch higher price !  No shortage of stock;  shortage is only because of stock not coming to market for sale – waiting for higher price !

MADAGASCAR OLD STOCK:  Madagascar never goes without carry over stock.  I used to write this in my blogs often.    Madagascar still have more than 4000 Mt of last year carry over stock.  These carry over stock is well dried to 10% moisture;  and some are good bright brown colour;  and some are black or black mixed.

INTERNATIONAL STOCK POSITION:   When we talk about Clove international market,  mainly we  need to speak about   India  and Indonesia only;  as these are the two destinations consuming Clove to the maximum.  And for Indonesia,  import is secondary.  Indonesia consumers mainly domestic production.  So in short, we need to talk about  Indian situation only – as India is the single largest importer of Clove from any origin  - from  Indonesia,  Africa,  Sri Lanka.

Indian stock is fully dried out.  And therefore,  India needs to replenish stock immediately.   Demand is increasing.  This would also add up for bullish trend in Clove.  Yes,  really for the time being, Clove price is on fire !

Wishing you all safe trading !

GIRISH KS

CLOVE BLACK PEPPER DRIED GINGER AFRICAN ORIGINS---SPICES, BEANS AND NUTS TRADING