PEPPER hilights 9th June 2025 – Week 23

 

 

We would like to send you a quick highlight report 9th June 2025 – Week 23.



At the beginning of April, the U.S. government began imposing tariffs on most countries around the world. This has disrupted business activities in many countries, leading to a sharp decline.

Inventory situation:

* Vietnam: 

In the first five months of the year, Vietnam exported up to 100,693 tons, while domestic inventory is forecasted to have decreased significantly as the 2025 crop is expected to be the lowest in the past five years. Therefore, when prices fall, selling pressure in the market is minimal, and at times, domestic traders continue to purchase stocks for speculation.

* Other countries: 

The tariffs from the U.S. have significantly reduced the import demand of countries over the past two months. Most customers prefer to use existing inventory while waiting for clearer tariff levels. However, this has led to a sharp decrease in inventory in importing countries. If the tariff situation becomes clearer in the next 2-3 weeks, it is likely to stimulate increased imports in Q3 and Q4 to replenish the shortage of imported goods that occurred in Q2.

Price situation:

* Despite facing a significant shock from tariffs and a sharp decline in demand over the past three months, the pepper market remains relatively stable, with a decrease of only 5% compared to the beginning of 2025. This clearly reflects that the total global demand still exceeds the global supply of pepper, and the trend of increasing prices remains evident if positive supporting information emerges.

Crop situation in countries in Q3 & Q4 of 2025:

* In the coming months, Indonesia will enter the harvest season in July and August, but preliminary assessments indicate that the harvest in Indonesia has decreased significantly by about 20-30% compared to 2024 due to climate change.

* Brazil’s harvest is expected to be 20% better than in 2024, with an increase of about 15,000 tons compared to the 2024 crop year. However, Brazilian farmers are not under pressure to sell as they have already achieved profits and good cash flow from coffee cultivation.

Clove season starting in all the origins, starting with COMOR in June 2025

 

Over all  Clove market is silent.  

Price stands range bound at origin countries and also at  buying destination
Keeping Indonesia out from the main stream;  
India continues to be the leading single largest buyer and importer of Clove from any origin.   Whether it is from  Madagascar,  or  Comor,  or Zanzibar or Sri Lanka or Indonesia or Brazil -  India continues to be the largest single importer.   
Of course,  Brazil Clove never comes to India because of duty factor.
Indian domestic market is sluggish, and demand is very poor.  As local demand is very poor and sluggish, Indian import also is very slow or NIL .     Secondly, Origins are not seriously offering, as it is off season
Indonesia crop 2025 is reported to be failure;  production is almost 40% less as hearing from islands of  Indonesia.   Confirmations are yet to come.   So this is early report.   However, overall report from Indonesia is that,  export surplus would be lower compared to previous years.
Comor 2025 season just started.  Expected shipment would start by end of June or early July.  Price quotation would be available after June 15, 2025.   Crop size is reported to be expecting nearly 4000 Mt - a good and more than last 3 years
As we are on the verge of  new Clove season starting in all the origins,  starting with COMOR in June 2025, let us examine what exactly is the "problems and challenges of  CLOVE INDUSTRY:   I would say the major factor is the "extensive speculative forward deals" happening without any logic,  and the consequent  defaults either side, and some times, over supply,  and price non-parity.
Clove has become more of an "industrial commodity" than a normal staple or food commodity.  And many investors are in the "clove industry" for INVESTMENT TRADING as well.
All the above factors make CLOVE PRICE vulnerable,  and supply chain inconsistant.  Speculative Stockists and Investment Stockists make the trade totally imbalanced and biased.

European ports are congested, and the same situation may soon spread to the US and Asia

 

European ports are congested, and the same situation may soon spread to the US and Asia.

According to industry experts, sea freight rates are likely to increase due to the impact of port congestion.

Port congestion

Port congestion  is worsening at key trade gateways in northern Europe and elsewhere, according to  a new report. The report says the trade war could spread maritime disruptions to Asia and the US, pushing up shipping rates.

Specifically, according to a report recently released by British maritime consultancy Drewry, between late March and mid-May, waiting times for berthing increased by 77% at the port of  Bremerhaven  (Germany).

During the same period, delays increased by 37% in Antwerp, Belgium, and by 49% in Hamburg, Germany. Similar problems were also reported in the Dutch ports of Rotterdam and Felixstowe, England.

Labor shortages and low water levels on the Rhine were the main culprits, hindering barge traffic to and from inland points.

Adding to the tensions, US President Donald Trump temporarily lifted 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, a move that has boosted demand for shipping between the world’s two largest economies.

“Delays at ports are extending transit times, disrupting inventory planning and forcing carriers to load more cargo,” Drewry noted in the report.

“Adding pressure is the fact that trans-Pacific trade… is showing signs of entering its peak season early, driven by the temporary US-China tariff relief that is set to expire on August 14,” Drewry added.

Port congestion in Europe. ( Screenshot from Bloomberg ).

Similar trends  are emerging in Shenzhen, China, as well as Los Angeles and New York, where the number of container ships waiting to dock at these locations has increased since late April, the report said.

Hapag-Lloyd AG CEO  Rolf Habben Jansen  said at a conference last week that while he has seen recent signs of improvement at European ports, it will take another six to eight weeks for the situation to be under control.

However  , Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Management, pointed out in a note over the weekend that the tariff truce between the US and China has not yet led to a surge in the number of ships crossing the Pacific.

“This raises the question: Are 30% tariffs on Chinese goods still too high? Or are American companies just waiting to see if tariffs will fall further before increasing shipments?” Slok wrote.

US-EU trade dispute 

US tariffs  – along with threats and sudden truces – make it difficult for importers and exporters to adjust orders, causing demand to fluctuate.

For shipping lines, the unpredictability often leads to delays and higher freight rates, according to  Bloomberg .

The latest blow to global trade came on May 23, when Mr. Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union (EU) from June 1. The move could disrupt transatlantic trade.

“Policy uncertainty will be a dead cost for global trade, adding risk to [corporate] spending plans,” Oxford Economics said in a new note.

Germany, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and the Netherlands are the most vulnerable countries due to their high ratio of goods exports to the US to GDP.

Bloomberg Economics warned in another note that an additional 50% tariff could see EU exports to the US fall by more than half.

The uncertainty surrounding Mr Trump’s policies is adding to the pressure on the shipping industry. Major carriers such as MSC Mediterranean Shipping have announced general rate increases and peak season surcharges starting in June for cargo originating from Asia.  Spot rates are likely to rise in  the coming weeks.

Currently, cargo ships still avoid the Red Sea, where the Houthis began attacking ships in late 2023. Ships are having to go around southern Africa to transport goods on routes connecting Asia, Europe and the United States.

According to VietnamBiz.vn

Shipping costs double as US rushes to buy Chinese goods ahead of tax deadline

 

Shipping costs double as US rushes to buy Chinese goods ahead of tax deadline

Before the tax breaks ended in August, American businesses rushed to import goods from China to avoid tariffs. However, the sudden surge in demand is causing container shipping rates to double.

American companies are rushing  to import   goods from China before a 90-day tariff break ends, but will face a shock of higher shipping costs that could lead to higher prices at stores, the  New York Post  reported  .

Several major shipping lines, including Hapag-Lloyd, have announced plans to raise rates for shipping 40-foot containers from China to U.S. West Coast ports from $3,500 to $6,500 starting June 1, according to multiple affected companies.
Shipping costs to East Coast ports will also increase from $4,500 to $7,500.

“This price increase will reduce profit margins and lead to higher prices for consumers,” said Jay Foreman, CEO of Basic Fun, a toy company in Florida that makes Tonka Trucks.

Shipping typically accounts for only about 3 percent of a manufacturer’s product cost, Foreman said. But the price hike will nearly double Basic Fun’s shipping costs, he said.

Walmart has previously warned that import tariffs would raise consumer  prices   , despite calls from former President Donald Trump that the retailer should “take the tax rather than pass it on to consumers.”

Another shipping price hike — possibly as high as $8,500 per container — is expected to take place on June 15, according to a report in  the Journal of Commerce .

Shipping companies are accused of “extortion” to make up for lost revenue as US companies cut back on imports to avoid the 145% tariffs imposed by President Trump on imports from China last month.

However, on May 12, the White House and Beijing reached a trade truce, temporarily lowering the tariff rate to 30% until August 10.

“Shipping lines are taking advantage of the backlog of cargo sitting at ports and factories in China,” Lou Lentine, CEO of sports equipment company Echelon, told  The Post .

Lentine said shipping companies have quoted up to $6,000 per container to ship treadmills and other equipment made in China and Vietnam — double the usual cost.

“That number is huge,” he said, admitting: “We have to ship the goods, there is no other way.”

Although most importers have contracts with fixed rates, carriers may still apply additional surcharges during peak seasons or adjust to market rates when demand spikes.

“Some of the ports in China are so congested that they’re having to push their cargo out of the country,” said Bobby Shoule, a customs broker at JW Hampton Jr. & Co., a logistics firm in Queens, New York, that has been in business for more than 160 years.

He also noted that large businesses like Home Depot can negotiate to reduce price increases, but small businesses do not have as much leverage.

“We have no choice but to pay that price,” Mr. Foreman lamented.
“There are no regulations or limits on how much carriers are allowed to charge.”

While container prices are still well below their peak during the pandemic — when they soared to more than $20,000 per container in 2021 — port congestion expected in the coming weeks could put supply chains under pandemic-like strain, Shoule warned.

“As the mass of cargo ships stuck in Chinese ports begin to leave and cross the Pacific, the ripple effect will begin to emerge,” Mr. Foreman added.

“This includes congestion at US West Coast ports, misplaced containers, and delays in returning ships to China to resume shipping for the second half of the year.”

According to VietnamBiz.

Dak Nong takes precautions against chemically contaminated pepper

 

Dak Nong takes precautions against chemically contaminated pepper

On May 23, Mr. Ngo Xuan Dong, Deputy Director of the Department of Agriculture and Environment of Dak Nong, said that the unit has just issued a document to propagate and recommend that people use standard white canvas bags to store pepper to avoid contamination of Sudan red into pepper products.

Mr. Dong added that recently, according to warning information from the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, some shipments of pepper exported from Vietnam were found to be contaminated with Sudan Red, an industrial colorant banned from use in food.

Through initial verification, the main cause is that some people preserve pepper in colored packaging, use poor quality colored drying tarpaulins, and do not meet food standards during harvesting, leading to the contamination of colorants into the product.

The incident was only a small-scale contamination of a few shipments. However, since Sudan Red is an industrial chemical that is not used in food, timely recommendations are needed to prevent possible risks.

Many organizations and individuals in Dak Nong have used standard white packaging to preserve pepper.

The Department of Agriculture is actively coordinating with the Farmers' Association, the Cooperative Union, the Provincial Business Association and related levels and sectors to provide information and propaganda to control and prevent the risk of Sudan Red infection in pepper production.

Dak Nong strives to improve food safety quality of pepper products, contributing to protecting the reputation of the Vietnamese pepper industry in the market.

Dak Nong currently has 33,230 hectares of pepper, with an output of 72,000 tons in 2024. The province's pepper is the leading in the country in terms of area, output, and quality and has been granted the geographical indication "Dak Nong Pepper".

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Pepper Market on May 19, 2025

 

Pepper Market on May 19, 2025: Fluctuating between 151,000 - 153,000 VND/kg

Pepper prices today  (May 19) continue to be traded at 151,000 - 153,000 VND/kg. In the world market, in 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture has identified pepper as the main focus in the spice growing area development program.

Update pepper price

In the domestic market

Recorded in the morning of the first week,  pepper prices  in key producing provinces remained stable at around 151,000 - 153,000 VND/kg.

Specifically, traders in the two Central Highlands provinces of Dak Lak and Dak Nong are purchasing pepper at the highest price of VND153,000/kg. Meanwhile, in other localities such as Gia Lai, Ba Ria – Vung Tau, Dong Nai and Binh Phuoc, the transaction price stands at VND151,000/kg.

Province/district (survey area)	Purchase price on May 19 (Unit: VND/kg)	Change from previous day (Unit: VND/kg)
Dak Lak	153,000	–
Gia Lai	151,000	–
Dak Nong	153,000	–
Ba Ria – Vung Tau	151,000	–
Binh Phuoc	151,000	–
Dong Nai	151,000	–

In the world market

At the end of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper Community (IPC) listed the price of  Indonesian black  pepper  at 7,301 USD/ton; Malaysian black pepper at 9,200 USD/ton and Brazilian black pepper ASTA 570 at 6,800 USD/ton.

In Vietnam, black pepper is still offered at 6,700 - 6,800 USD/kg for 500 g/l and 550 g/l.

Type name	World black pepper price list
	May 19 (Unit: USD/ton)	% change from previous day
Lampung Black Pepper (Indonesia)	7.301	–
Brazilian Black Pepper ASTA 570	6,800	–
Kuching Black Pepper (Malaysia) ASTA	9,200	–
Vietnamese black pepper (500 g/l)	6,700	–
Vietnamese black pepper (500 g/l)	6,800	–

At the same time of survey, the price of Indonesian Muntok white pepper was quoted at 10,051 USD/ton. Meanwhile, Vietnamese white pepper and Malaysian ASTA white pepper stood at 9,700 USD/ton and 11,900 USD/ton, respectively.

Type name	World white pepper price list
	May 19 (Unit: USD/ton)	% change from previous day
Muntok Indonesian White Pepper	10,051	–
ASTA Malaysian White Pepper	11,900	–
Vietnam white pepper	9,700	–

Update pepper information

According to Indonesian media sources, spices have become an important part of Indonesia’s agricultural history and identity. Commodities such as pepper, nutmeg, cloves, cinnamon and vanilla not only have high economic value but also have great potential to promote  export  growth  and improve the lives of farmers.

In an effort to consolidate Indonesia’s position as the world’s leading spice producer, the government has been pushing for targeted development of key crops. In 2025, the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture has identified pepper as a key focus in its spice development program.

This was shared by Mr. Ir. Baginda Siagian, M.Si, Director of Short-term and Perennial Crops under the Ministry of Agriculture, regarding the development orientation of Indonesia's spices in 2025. He said that this year, pepper will be the main focus in the national spice development program.

According to Mr. Baginda, the government continues to support five key spices: pepper, nutmeg, cloves, cinnamon and vanilla. However, due to budget constraints, the development of new growing areas will focus only on pepper.

“This year we are focusing on pepper. If we get more budget later, we can expand to other crops,” said Mr. Baginda.

He also added that the development of pepper growing areas by 2025 will be carried out in five provinces: Bangka Belitung, Lampung, West Kalimantan and South Sulawesi. These areas are assessed to have great potential to support the increase of national pepper production.

However, technical support and cultivation guidance for other spices continues. This support includes technical advice, training and accompaniment to farmers to maintain and improve productivity.

“We continue to support. As for the development of new areas, we are currently focusing on pepper,” he explained.

Mr. Baginda also stressed the importance of involving multiple stakeholders in the national spice development program, especially outside  the state budget  . He expected that farmers’ initiative through self-investment as well as the role of the private sector would be the main driving force for expanding cultivation.

“Hopefully there will be other sources of funding. For now, we hope farmers can be self-reliant and private enterprises will play a bigger role,” he concluded.

With the strategy focusing on pepper, the government hopes to create a targeted and sustainable development program. Once infrastructure and support for pepper are strengthened, development will continue to expand to other spices in the future.