The various changes of Brazilian Black Pepper Trade

For the second year in a row Vietnam became the biggest importer of brazilian black pepper, overcoming traditional destinations like USA and also Germany.

USA has been the leading importer of brazilian black pepper since the beginning of the century.

Big changes happened after COVID-19 pandemia and actually during the last 10 years, starting with the production area in Brazil that developed a new very active production zone in the central-east (south of Bahia state and Espirito Santo state).Brazilian exports that were around 30k - 40 k tons per year from 2000 to 2015, rised to 91,000 ton in 2021.

Prices this week range between 3350 -3500 FOB.

The chart below show Brazilian Exports per destination from 2018 to 2023 elaborated by Coreimex. 

Prices this week range between 3350 -3500 FOB

If interested ask for a firm offer  peppertrade@olcom.com.br

Vietnam pepper market update 28th August 2023 – Week 34

  

August 28, 2023
Likely that Vietnam's pepper exports in the first 8 months of the year will reach around 183-185,000 tons. If the forecasted annual pepper production for 2023 is around 190-200,000 tons, it is certain that the inventory from previous years will be used for exports until the next harvest in 2024, which is still 5-6 months away.

It is predicted that this situation will lead to a less pepper raw material trading in the market in the fourth quarter, as the inventory from previous years is still held by farmers, traders, and export companies with a strong financial foundation and relatively high prices.

 

Please see the REPORT FILE & FULL QUOTATION LIST by click to download.

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Fw1NvO3DkoV2i_JwHFhPaXJOi9iEkLDX/view?usp=sharing

 

PEPPER MARKET IN VIETNA, 24-Aug-2023

 

- In coming time, world pepper market will increase due to reduced supply (low price, low yield due to many old trees, reduced interest in farming due to other more efficient crops such as durian, weather influence, domestic consumption), increased demand from US and China (improved logistics, facilitating trade and transporation, China’s pepper import from Vietnam increased nearly 7 times from Jan-Jul/23 over same period in 2022).

- Currently there is not much supply in Vietnam. The current inventory is about 60-80k tons, next harvest is expected to be 140-150k tons, a significant decrease compared to last year. Indonesia, pepper in 2022 is down 22% compared to 2021, is expected to continue to decrease by 15% in 2023. In India, the main pepper growing areas are affected by weather, causing production to decrease 30-32% while domestic demand increases dramatically as the festival season approaches.

- Demand is likely to exceed supply, pushing prices up to unprecedented heights.

If you have any interest of pepper or other agricultural products, pls comment to send you our best price. Mr Vo - TPH

Scanty rainfall hits cardamom production, prices set to spiral to record levels

 

As prices of cardamom rise, India is in danger of losing its export markets to the cheaper Guatemalan cardamom. Even the upcoming festive season may not help its cause as higher prices may impact the price-sensitive domestic market as well.

AUGUST 16, 2023

Cardamom prices are spiraling to record levels as severely deficient rainfall wreaks havoc in Idukki district in Kerala, where most of the country’s cardamom is grown.

The average prices have doubled to around Rs 2,000 per kg from a couple of months ago. The maximum price for the premium quality has jumped to about Rs 3,000 per kg. It is reminiscent of the situation four years ago when average prices crossed Rs 4,000 per kg and the maximum price escalated to Rs 7,000 per kg when the south-west monsoon rains played truant.

Rainfall is said to be short by 30 to 50 percent so far in different parts of Idukki district, the hub of cardamom cultivation. ``The harvest began towards the end of last month and the production looks to be 30 to 40 percent short because of poor rainfall from June. If it rains towards the end of this month or in September, we may get some good crop by December, but the current damage cannot be set right,’’ said K K Saseendra Babu, MD of Vandanmedu Green Gold Cardamom Producer Co. Ltd.

He reckons that the total cardamom production in the country could drop to around 15,000 tonnes from 25,000 tonnes last year. Lower carryover stock has also contributed to the price rally.

At present consumption is weak and given the current prices it remains to be seen whether it will pick up with the onset of festival season after September. The maximum domestic sale usually happens during the Durga pooja-Diwali season. Subdued demand may limit the rise of cardamom prices till the festival season begins.

`The pattern of consumption has changed after the Covid pandemic. The market has become price sensitive, and the demand is for cheaper, lower quality cardamom. The total annual domestic consumption could have fallen to 25,000 tonnes from around 35,000 tonnes,’’ Babu said.

Though the prices are at remunerative levels for the growers, they cannot take advantage of it as most of them are left with hardly any stock. Since the prices hit record levels in 2019, cardamom cultivation has spread to more areas in Idukki district as well as in Tamil Nadu. The curry masala makers, who go for bulk quantities, bought some quantity when it was cheaper.

In the last three years cardamom prices have been averaging around Rs 1,000 per kg. Given the rise in the production cost, the growers can reap benefits only if the prices go above Rs 1,200 per kg.

``Apart from the decline in consumption there is also the risk of Guatemalan cardamom entering the Indian market towards the end of the year, which could impact domestic prices’’ pointed out P C Punnoose, CEO of Kerala Cardamom Processing & Marketing Co. Ltd. Gautemala is the biggest cardamom producer in the world and last year the country’s production was higher at around 45,000 tonnes, which helped it to dominate the export market.

Guatemalan harvest usually begins around October.

India’s export of cardamom too declined last year owing to the onslaught of Guatemalan cardamom. Cardamom exports in 2022-23 showed a 30 percent slump in quantity to 7,352 tonnes and a 36 percent drop in earnings year-on-year to Rs 875 crore. In 2021-22, cardamom export had reached a new peak of 10,572 tonnes valued at Rs 1,375 crore.

Importers in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are asking why India has suddenly increased the price. The prices are around $ 31 per kg. Even at $19 per kg earlier, we were not finding too many takers in the world market,’’ said Nithyanandan, partner of SPG Ramaswamy Nadar and Sons, a leading exporter.

Once Guatemala enters the world market after October, it will be able to sell at a cheaper rate than India. Thus, India could end up losing the Gulf market, the largest buyers of cardamom, to Guatemala.

Further, failure of monsoon rains could push cardamom prices to a higher level, hitting both domestic consumption and export.

PK KRISHNAKUMAR is a journalist based in Kochi.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/agriculture/scanty-rainfall-hits-cardamom-production-prices-set-to-spiral-to-record-levels-11197301.html

Black Pepper - Brazil Pricing Overview

Week 33/2023

Brazil Pepper started at lows of BRL 11/kg for raw about $2550-2750 FOB range beginning this year, heading firm towards Q2 until it reached its expected weak spot beginning Q3 - the harvesting season.
All attention is with Brazil with demand activities mostly from Asian countries.
However, price softening did not last longer as price moves further up at level BRL 14-14,50/kg – an uptrend by about 18% from beginning year, 10% higher from last year same period recorded.

Contrary to pricing movement from last year, Brazil today appears to be siding strongly to an upward trend with reports of difficulties in procuring raw material from farmers not lower than BRL 14,50/kg having more interest to keep their pepper stocks rather than to sell immediately despite earlier reports of a good crop volume this year.

Brazil Pepper April Export Brazil was able to export about 6,158 tons of pepper this July, generating about 45,294 tons for the first seven (7) months of the year which is almost similar volume from last year same period recorded, but 6% higher if compared to same month from last year.

For the first seven (7) months of this year, the highest importer of Brazil Pepper remains to be Vietnam, having an import volume of 8,411 tons, followed by Senegal with 4,793 tons, next is Morocco contributing 4,267 tons, UAE share of 4,171 tons, India with a volume of 3,344 tons, and Pakistan at 3,024 ton.

RGT Pepper Market Report – Week 33 /2023 Royal Golden Trading 2023.
All Rights Reserved. Website: www.royalgoldentrading.com/ Email: Info@royalgoldentrading.co

Black pepper prices spike, likely to rise further

 

As demand outstrips supply and imports become expensive, black pepper prices have risen, prompting growers to resort to hoarding in anticipation of bigger profits. That in turn is increasing prices even more.

 PK KRISHNAKUMAR AUGUST 11, 2023 

Shrinking stock in the North Indian markets, drying up of illegal imports, hoarding and anticipated shortage in the next season due to the El Nino impact, have all pushed up black pepper prices in the country past Rs 600 per kg after a gap of several years.

The current year has seen the prices of several spices such as chilli, cumin, ginger and turmeric rally. Black pepper is the addition to the list. Black pepper prices have remained between Rs 400 and 500 per kg for some years now. Last year it spiked to over Rs 500 per kg before falling. This week, the price has climbed to Rs 625 per kg.
Pepper output in India this year, at about 64,000 tonnes, is said to be normal. The production in India has remained stagnant in the last few years but consumption has been rising annually and is much above the production level. Karnataka, followed by Kerala are the major pepper producing states. But the crop in Kerala, particularly in Idukki district, has come down with many farmers shifting to cardamom, which is more remunerative.

Higher consumption, to a certain extent, is met through imports, much of it illegal. Pepper import for use in the local market carries heavy duties ranging from 50 to 70 percent and a minimum import price of Rs 500 per kg from different countries such as Vietnam, Brazil and Sri Lanka, where the spice is cheaper. Pepper from these countries reaches India illegally by road from Myanmar or Nepal or through misdeclaration as other goods to evade duties during shipment.

``Strict monitoring by the Centre has checked illegal imports into the country. As a result, the stock in the North Indian market has diminished. This has led to an increase in the prices,’’ said Jojan Malayil, owner of Aromatics Products.
As prices started to rise a few weeks ago, growers began to hold on to the stock, pushing the rates up further. The festival season demand after September is expected to spur the prices again in the coming months. Industry expects the prices to reach Rs 650 per kg or more.
``The rally is partly driven by sentiment as the other spices have become dearer. Pepper prices had been flat for the past several years. With low supply, it has become a seller’s market. Also, there are concerns on the impact of EL Nino on the next (year's) production. We can get a correct assessment only by October-November,’’ said Gulshan John, MD of Nedspice India.

The pepper prices in Vietnam, the largest producer, and Brazil, the next biggest grower, are around Rs 300 per kg. Since the import is duty-free against export, Indian pepper exporters have been depending on the pepper from other origins for value addition and shipment. But still the Indian consignments are comparatively high priced in the global market, causing the pepper exports to remain low in the last few years.

Indian pepper exports dropped 18 percent year-on-year in FY23 to 17,958 tonnes. Exports touched 21,863 tonnes in FY22, helped by cheaper Vietnam pepper. But a rise in the prices of Vietnam pepper since, have curbed imports to India for export.

``This year too, Vietnamese farmers are holding back produce, though their production is higher. Even the Brazilian crop is good. But there is no aggressive selling. Maybe they are anticipating an increase in prices since the excess stock purchased during the corona pandemic years by consuming countries is almost exhausted,’’ said Cherian Xavier, MD of Plant Lipids, a major spice oleoresin exporter.
As per the research reports of Nedspice, the Netherlands-based spice processing and distribution company, global pepper production in 2023 at 5,20,000 tonnes will be lower by 10,000 tonnes than the total demand. Stocks at destinations and origin will still be sufficient to meet near-term demand, though increased interest rates are not favourable to speculators and those holding large stocks, the report said.

It pegs Vietnam production at 2,05,000 tonnes, 9 percent higher than the previous year. Brazil’s production is estimated at 1,12,000 tonnes, 5.4 percent higher from a year before. India’s production and Indonesian production at 64,000 tonnes and 42,000 tonnes respectively will be slightly lower than the previous year.
According to the report, the current market situation is uncertain although the long-term price trend is likely to be up because of decreasing global production.

PK KRISHNAKUMAR is a journalist based in Kochi.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/black-pepper-prices-spike-likely-to-rise-further-11160931.html 

IPC MARKET REPORT 33/23, 07 - 11 August 2023

 

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

August 11th 2023

The pepper market this week showed a mix response with only Malaysian local white pepper price reported with a decrease.

The Indian pepper price continued to be reported with an increasing trend since mid-July. The increase could be contributed to the upcoming festival season in India which resulted in an increased demand for black pepper.

Both local and international prices for Indonesia reported with an increasing trend this week as some areas in Lampung reported to start harvesting.

Only Malaysian local white pepper reported with a decreasing trend this week. Whilst, the others reported stable and unchanged.

The local price for Sri Lankan pepper continued to be reported with an increasing trend for the last four (4) weeks.

The Vietnamese local price continued to be reported with an increasing trend since last week. Whilst, the Vietnamese international price remained stable and unchanged as the market was quiet. 

Allspice Pimento 2023 Crop - Mexican Update

August 10th, 2023
Just received from one of our good suppliers a report about mexican Allspice Crop & Harvest

Concerning Allspice market situation, let me comment you that the harvest time arrived very late because there were not rains on time of almost any of the productions areas; the trees look good, they have grains and it seems that we could have a good crop, however the collection is very slow and is not constant because not all the trees are ready to be collected and the collection did not begin in a specific area but in specific trees that are ready to be collected.

In the local market, the prices began to increase even before to start the harvest time and now they are very speculative and increasing almost every day, even when we are not in the collection yet. For that reason we consider that we will require at least another week to have more collection and wait until the price can be more stable.

Bottom line is Guatemala and Mexican prices are all very firm still, despite the markets being somewhat in vacation mode. Will see what happens when demand comes back in full

We are ready  to offer 2023 crop Allspice Pimento of  Mexico or Guatemala origin

Cardamom prices soar on deficient monsoon, crop shortage

 

August 10, 2023 

After black pepper, it is now the turn of cardamom to witness a price surge reportedly on speculative buying. The rates soared to ₹2,250 per kg in the Puttady auction centre in Kerala without bringing any benefits to the farming community due to crop shortage.

After Covid-19, the cardamom market has been witnessing a reverse trend with prices plummeting to below ₹1,000, prompting farmers to neglect the crop because of rising production cost. It was in August 2019 that prices touched a record high of ₹7,000.

PC Punnoose, managing director of CPMCS Ltd. at Kumily, cited the delayed and deficient monsoon, especially in the growing belt of Kerala’s Idukki, as the reason for prices to move up. May and June are considered as the time for surplus rains, but hardly any showers during the period, instead a dry spell which led to heavy droppings in plantations and it impacted production.

Delayed plucking

Normally, it would take 90 days for the flowers to mature, but deficient rains in this season has hit plant settings and it resulted in delayed plucking. The first round of harvest was over by July-end and the next round will all depend on a conducive weather.

It looks like climate change and weather is going to dictate the direction of the market. With El Nino strengthening, we may not see rains from December of 2023 till April 2024 contributing to further reduction in crop and increase in prices”, said SB Prabhakar, a cardamom planter in Idukki.

The growing tracts have received a deficit of 70 per cent in June, 25 per cent in July and around 40 per cent till date in August. As the South-West monsoon is the main flowering months, the overall crop is expected to drop 25-30 per cent at a minimum in the current season.

Speculative buying on

If there is a deficit again in this period, it will lead to a further reduction in crop and an increase in prices up to ₹3000 level. If rains become bountiful later in August and September, he said, adding that prices should stabilise at around ₹2,000-2,300 levels.

However, trading sources said the market is witnessing speculative buying mainly from Kerala traders in anticipation of a further price hike. The offered quantities in auction centre are on an average 100 tonnes per day.

The consuming centres in the Gulf markets and upcountry are hardly having any stocks and they are all waiting for the raw material. But the crop shortage and rising prices is hitting them hard, especially with the festival season is around.

Cardamom prices soar on deficient monsoon, crop shortage - The Hindu BusinessLine

Black pepper has turned hot in the recent weeks on speculative buying

 

August 8, 2023

The Hindu BusinessLine

Black pepper has turned hot in the recent weeks on speculative buying amidst concerns of delayed crop setting due to the erratic rainfall pattern in the key producing regions of Karnataka and Kerala.

Prices which hovered around the ₹480-500 a kg levels for a long time have increased to ₹ 603 for the ungarbled and ₹623 for the garbled varieties in the Kochi terminal market. However, prices are still short of the record ₹700 per kg witnessed during 2016.

The surge in prices is not seen benefiting growers because of the limited availability as most of them have sold their produce, while some are holding back in anticipation of further increase.

Kishore Shamji, President of India Pepper and Spice Trade Association (IPSTA), said Indian pepper is out-priced in the world market because of the higher prices of $7,700 per tonne, whereas Sri Lankan crop is available at $6,700 and Vietnam at $3,700.

He alleged that a cartel, which is behind hiking the prices of turmeric and cumin, is pushing up pepper prices as well.

Above floor price

The farming community fears that the higher prices in the domestic market might pave the way for more imports from Sri Lanka. Domestic prices are currently ruling above minimum import price of ₹500 per kg. There are also concerns that pepper from Brazil and Vietnam may enter the Indian market via Sri Lanka by paying the 8 per cent duty in view of the surging domestic demand which is estimated at 85,000 tonnes, Shamji said.

“Due to the scarce availability, the pepper imports into the country are likely to rise. If the prices continue to move up, lot of pepper will flow into India from countries such as Vietnam, but the growers will not benefit,” said KK Vishwanath, Convenor of the Consortium of Pepper Growers’ Organisation.

Subdued demand

According to Shamji, the demand for black pepper across overseas markets was subdued especially in China, the US and the UK because of the slowdown. At the same time, the Indian economy is booming with a burgeoning demand especially from masala manufacturers . 

Referring to production, Shamji said the climate change will have an impact on pepper cultivation across producing countries including India which are reporting a lower crop in the current season. For instance, Brazil has brought down production figures this season.

Mahesh Shashidhar, Chairman, Karnataka Planters’ Association, said the erratic rainfall pattern during the pre-monsoon and early part of the monsoon has impacted the flowering of pepper and the crop setting is seen delayed by few weeks.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/pepper-turns-hot-on-speculative-buying-concerns-of-delayed-crop-setting/article67172836.ece

Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained as supply is limited

 2023-08-08

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.45% at 63115 on profit booking after prices gained as supply is limited due to the rainy environment. However, the cumin market is currently facing slow export and domestic demand. Due to heavy rains impacting cumin quality, there have been disruptions in the cumin business across Gujarat, Rajasthan, and other regions. China’s cumin imports and exports have caused temporary corrections in cumin prices, with a recent $200 decrease in the international market. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November before the arrival of new cumin adds further uncertainty to the market dynamics. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons.

According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 per cent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -139.4 Rupees to end at 62044.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 14.76% to settle at 4713 while prices are down -285 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 62740 and below same could see a test of 62370 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63740, a move above could see prices testing 64370.

Kedia Advisory

Commodities News

2023-08-08 03:45