Pepper Talk// Pepper Market Report by Royal Golden// Week 10 – 2024

 

Week 9 ended firm on Saturday at level 96,000 VND per kg after some reported covering from shippers that had happened at level 95,000 VND. 
Overall, since the beginning of the year, black pepper prices have increased by about 14%. Having about an upsurge of 28% for February this year compared to last year same month period, while about 15% beginning March in comparison to last February beginning. 

Speculations continues as most of the farmers are allegedly a firm believer that pepper price cycle is set to a new record high. Further, with coffee and durian that are keeping them well funded, there seems to no selling pressure happening despite a reported 50% harvested crop already with farmers that are opting to store their pepper, waiting at the right time and price to sell it.  

Today, market remains firm, opening up with some buying demand happening. 
Muntok White Pepper remains stable to firm still being influenced by Vietnam bullish trend in addition to raw material that are very scarce.   

Brazil still few offers available. Local material last seen at level 19 BRL/kg.

In terms of ocean freight scenario, with Red Sea situation that continues to impact the capacity and equipment, carriers are announcing GRI/PSS/contingency charges with pressure for the additional cost involve for the rerouting via Cape of Good Hope. Expectations are that the Peak Season quantum will be mitigated or even softens by March month but that would remain to be seen. 

Pepper Market Report Week 44 – 2023

 

As market struggles to find support overseas, Vietnam was reportedly seen with a decline last week by 1,4% for raw material. However, over the weekend, China reappears prompting market to firm up a bit at today’s opening. Exporters remain on a sideline as USA and EU demands are still elusive for spot coverings as most seems to be eyeing now for new crop next year.

Indonesia – speculators last week are in a market to sell as prices also are seen softening a bit with depreciating local currency that has been beaten by negative sentiments since last month. But then Muntok stock position is not that promising, with a volume that could be just good enough for local consumption. 

Brazil although price is supportive compared to others, origin’s current state is not sitting well. The country is now in midst of experiencing severe drought in history due to lack of rain. It is much worser in Amazonas as its port Manaus had dried the water to even allow ships to dock. Para’s crop reporting crop failure and although ES is still surviving, the domino effect of the whole situation very soon can cause more shipment delays and cancellation which these days has been a dilemma by almost all exporters. 

Royal Golden Trading, Dubai

Brazil Pepper Pricing Overview

 

Brazil still seen stable over the past few weeks with local currency that is under depreciation pressure over US dollars Brazil's real BRL, fell between 0.3% and 0.7%. Though in a good note, exporters’ woes with the rising production and shipping cost for Pepper could balance out the market pricing. 

Brazil Pepper Plant Production
Espírito Santo as the epicenter of pepper production reportedly seen with plants dying due to weather condition with the degree of the damage that is still unknown. On the other hand, Pará harvest reportedly plummeted by about 20%, due to high temperatures and lack of rain.

Brazil Pepper September Export
Brazil exported about 7,244 tons of pepper for the month of September, with about 57,652 tons export volume for the first nine (9) months of the year which is 4% lower as compared to last year’s same period covered.

Brazil Pepper Export Destinations
Vietnam still a top importer of Brazil Pepper, managing to import about 11,867 tons from Q1-Q3, down by about 9% compared to last year same period. UAE, top two importer at 5,464 tons, down by about 19% from last year as well.

Germany and USA both import volume dropped down by about 60% and 92% respectively owing to the stricter import regulation due to Salmonella issue.

This report is part of  
RGT Pepper Market Report – October 2023
Royal Golden Trading 2023. All Rights Reserved.

Brazil Pepper Pricing Overview Week 37

 

Plantation in São Mateus, Espirito Santo

Brazil remains stable and firm; expected to slowly
move at upward trend. Still seeing difficulties in 
securing raw material from farmers especially for 
sundried materials. 

Brazil Pepper Crop Situation
Another El Nino induced drought affecting mostly 
Para region with reports of dying plants and crop 
failures reversing the earlier projected good yield. 
Sundried materials are expected to be more limited 
with prices that could further move at an upward 
trend. 

Brazil Pepper August Export 
Brazil managed to export 5,113 tons of pepper for the 
month of August, generating about 50,408 tons for 
the first eight (8) months of the year. The volume is 
lower by a 2% margin only from last year’s export 
volume for same period. 

For the first eight (8) months of this year, the highest 
importer of Brazil Pepper is still Vietnam, able to 
import 9,437 tons, followed by Senegal with 4,820
tons, UAE at 4,789 tons, Morocco at 4,375 tons, India 
at 3,830 tons and Pakistan at 3,484 tons.

RGT Pepper Market Report – Week 37 /2023 
Royal Golden Trading 2023. All Rights Reserved.

Vietnam Pepper market update 4th Sept 2023 – Week 35.

Over the past week, black pepper prices have slightly increased by about  1,5% from 73,000 - 74,000.

The largest market, China, has resumed purchasing along with demand from Europe/USA for Q4 deliveries.

The average export price of Vietnamese pepper in August increased for the third consecutive month and reached the highest level in the past 10 months reaching U$ 3,748 an increase of 5% compared to the month of July.

According to the latest data from the *General Statistics Office*, Vietnam-s pepper exports in August reached 16,009 tons, an increase of 4,9% compared to July, but a decrease of 13,4% compared to the same period last year.

Export turnover in August reached 60.01 million U$D, a 5.4% increase compared to July, but a 20.2% decrease compared to the same period last year.

In the first 8 month of 2023, Vietnam´s pepper exports reached 183,919 tons.,a 14.5% increase compared to the same period in 2022

Price indication for the week 35

The various changes of Brazilian Black Pepper Trade

For the second year in a row Vietnam became the biggest importer of brazilian black pepper, overcoming traditional destinations like USA and also Germany.

USA has been the leading importer of brazilian black pepper since the beginning of the century.

Big changes happened after COVID-19 pandemia and actually during the last 10 years, starting with the production area in Brazil that developed a new very active production zone in the central-east (south of Bahia state and Espirito Santo state).Brazilian exports that were around 30k - 40 k tons per year from 2000 to 2015, rised to 91,000 ton in 2021.

Prices this week range between 3350 -3500 FOB.

The chart below show Brazilian Exports per destination from 2018 to 2023 elaborated by Coreimex. 

Prices this week range between 3350 -3500 FOB

If interested ask for a firm offer  peppertrade@olcom.com.br

Vietnam pepper market update 28th August 2023 – Week 34

  

August 28, 2023
Likely that Vietnam's pepper exports in the first 8 months of the year will reach around 183-185,000 tons. If the forecasted annual pepper production for 2023 is around 190-200,000 tons, it is certain that the inventory from previous years will be used for exports until the next harvest in 2024, which is still 5-6 months away.

It is predicted that this situation will lead to a less pepper raw material trading in the market in the fourth quarter, as the inventory from previous years is still held by farmers, traders, and export companies with a strong financial foundation and relatively high prices.

 

Please see the REPORT FILE & FULL QUOTATION LIST by click to download.

 

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Fw1NvO3DkoV2i_JwHFhPaXJOi9iEkLDX/view?usp=sharing

 

Black Pepper - Brazil Pricing Overview

Week 33/2023

Brazil Pepper started at lows of BRL 11/kg for raw about $2550-2750 FOB range beginning this year, heading firm towards Q2 until it reached its expected weak spot beginning Q3 - the harvesting season.
All attention is with Brazil with demand activities mostly from Asian countries.
However, price softening did not last longer as price moves further up at level BRL 14-14,50/kg – an uptrend by about 18% from beginning year, 10% higher from last year same period recorded.

Contrary to pricing movement from last year, Brazil today appears to be siding strongly to an upward trend with reports of difficulties in procuring raw material from farmers not lower than BRL 14,50/kg having more interest to keep their pepper stocks rather than to sell immediately despite earlier reports of a good crop volume this year.

Brazil Pepper April Export Brazil was able to export about 6,158 tons of pepper this July, generating about 45,294 tons for the first seven (7) months of the year which is almost similar volume from last year same period recorded, but 6% higher if compared to same month from last year.

For the first seven (7) months of this year, the highest importer of Brazil Pepper remains to be Vietnam, having an import volume of 8,411 tons, followed by Senegal with 4,793 tons, next is Morocco contributing 4,267 tons, UAE share of 4,171 tons, India with a volume of 3,344 tons, and Pakistan at 3,024 ton.

RGT Pepper Market Report – Week 33 /2023 Royal Golden Trading 2023.
All Rights Reserved. Website: www.royalgoldentrading.com/ Email: Info@royalgoldentrading.co

Black pepper prices spike, likely to rise further

 

As demand outstrips supply and imports become expensive, black pepper prices have risen, prompting growers to resort to hoarding in anticipation of bigger profits. That in turn is increasing prices even more.

 PK KRISHNAKUMAR AUGUST 11, 2023 

Shrinking stock in the North Indian markets, drying up of illegal imports, hoarding and anticipated shortage in the next season due to the El Nino impact, have all pushed up black pepper prices in the country past Rs 600 per kg after a gap of several years.

The current year has seen the prices of several spices such as chilli, cumin, ginger and turmeric rally. Black pepper is the addition to the list. Black pepper prices have remained between Rs 400 and 500 per kg for some years now. Last year it spiked to over Rs 500 per kg before falling. This week, the price has climbed to Rs 625 per kg.
Pepper output in India this year, at about 64,000 tonnes, is said to be normal. The production in India has remained stagnant in the last few years but consumption has been rising annually and is much above the production level. Karnataka, followed by Kerala are the major pepper producing states. But the crop in Kerala, particularly in Idukki district, has come down with many farmers shifting to cardamom, which is more remunerative.

Higher consumption, to a certain extent, is met through imports, much of it illegal. Pepper import for use in the local market carries heavy duties ranging from 50 to 70 percent and a minimum import price of Rs 500 per kg from different countries such as Vietnam, Brazil and Sri Lanka, where the spice is cheaper. Pepper from these countries reaches India illegally by road from Myanmar or Nepal or through misdeclaration as other goods to evade duties during shipment.

``Strict monitoring by the Centre has checked illegal imports into the country. As a result, the stock in the North Indian market has diminished. This has led to an increase in the prices,’’ said Jojan Malayil, owner of Aromatics Products.
As prices started to rise a few weeks ago, growers began to hold on to the stock, pushing the rates up further. The festival season demand after September is expected to spur the prices again in the coming months. Industry expects the prices to reach Rs 650 per kg or more.
``The rally is partly driven by sentiment as the other spices have become dearer. Pepper prices had been flat for the past several years. With low supply, it has become a seller’s market. Also, there are concerns on the impact of EL Nino on the next (year's) production. We can get a correct assessment only by October-November,’’ said Gulshan John, MD of Nedspice India.

The pepper prices in Vietnam, the largest producer, and Brazil, the next biggest grower, are around Rs 300 per kg. Since the import is duty-free against export, Indian pepper exporters have been depending on the pepper from other origins for value addition and shipment. But still the Indian consignments are comparatively high priced in the global market, causing the pepper exports to remain low in the last few years.

Indian pepper exports dropped 18 percent year-on-year in FY23 to 17,958 tonnes. Exports touched 21,863 tonnes in FY22, helped by cheaper Vietnam pepper. But a rise in the prices of Vietnam pepper since, have curbed imports to India for export.

``This year too, Vietnamese farmers are holding back produce, though their production is higher. Even the Brazilian crop is good. But there is no aggressive selling. Maybe they are anticipating an increase in prices since the excess stock purchased during the corona pandemic years by consuming countries is almost exhausted,’’ said Cherian Xavier, MD of Plant Lipids, a major spice oleoresin exporter.
As per the research reports of Nedspice, the Netherlands-based spice processing and distribution company, global pepper production in 2023 at 5,20,000 tonnes will be lower by 10,000 tonnes than the total demand. Stocks at destinations and origin will still be sufficient to meet near-term demand, though increased interest rates are not favourable to speculators and those holding large stocks, the report said.

It pegs Vietnam production at 2,05,000 tonnes, 9 percent higher than the previous year. Brazil’s production is estimated at 1,12,000 tonnes, 5.4 percent higher from a year before. India’s production and Indonesian production at 64,000 tonnes and 42,000 tonnes respectively will be slightly lower than the previous year.
According to the report, the current market situation is uncertain although the long-term price trend is likely to be up because of decreasing global production.

PK KRISHNAKUMAR is a journalist based in Kochi.

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/black-pepper-prices-spike-likely-to-rise-further-11160931.html