SEASON GREETINGS FROM PEPPERTRADE
http://www.peppertrade.com.br/xmas09-corporate.htm
Monday, December 21, 2009
Saturday, December 12, 2009
2009 IPC Meeting -Report
2009/12/12
Pepper market Scenario during 2008/2009
Excerpts of the Final Report produced by IPC metting in Belem presented by the Executive Director of IPC
PRODUCTION
" During the last six years, world production or pepper declined consistently, with the exception of 2008, from 364,500 tons in 2003 to an estimated 310,636 tons in 2009, a rate of 2,5% per year.
The continuous decline in prices from the peak of averagedly U$D 5,610/ton for black pepper in New York in 1999 to the bottom level of around U$D 1,675/ton in 2004/2005.
However price increase in the late 2006 till the middle of 2008, has yet to show any impact to the increase in output. "
"Overall output was reported reduced in Indonesia, Brazil and Sri Lanka, India was reported stable and Vietnam increased."
2009
"During 2009, it is estimated that global pepper production would be lower by around 8,200 tons ( 3%) from 318,843 ton in 2008 to 310,636 ton in 2009 instead of the projection made during the last IPC meeting which was of 325,000 ton. As for the black pepper it is estimated a total of around 243,600 ton."
" Production of black pepper in Brazil, Indonesia and Sri Lanka is estimated to remain lower while production in Vietnam and Malaysia tend to increase"
EXPORTS
" During 2009, exports from most origins is expected to decrease, due to estimated lower output this year.
However, exports from Vietnam were suprisingly reported to increase substantially this year, offsetting lower exports of the other countries. During January-September 2009, export from Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka totaled at around 87,000 ton as against 102,500 tons in the same period of the last year, showing a significant fall of 15%.
If this performance is extrapolated to the situation of total export from these countries in the year, it is estimated that export of pepper from these five countries in 2009 would be around 112,500 ton.
Some sources reported that Vietnam has shipped 120,000 ton of pepper during January - October 2009. Observing this performance, about 130,000 tons of pepper would be achievable to be shipped from Vietnam during this year. Taking into account that export from other sources ( China, Thailand, Madagascar, Ecuador, etc.) at around 10,000 ton, the total export of pepper in 2009 would be around 252,500 ton."
PRICES
"Price fluctuates from year to year depending upon demand and supply. During 2008 till beginning of 2009, pepper prices experienced a decrease and moved up again in the second semester of the year.
In addition of increased supply in 2008, the decrease in prices was influenced also by demand factor, since global economic turmoil in 2008 has lowered demand of main consuming countrues, such as United States and European countries."
CONCLUSION
"Global pepper production in 2009 would be lower, while the export indicates an increasing trend. As a result of drop in production and exhausted carry over stocks, increased prices could be expected in the global market."
"It is also evident that the productivity of traditional pepper producing countries remains at low level, making remuneration to the farmers not attractive to remain in the industry."
"For both black and white pepper the lucrative prices experienced from around early 2007 toearly 2008 is yet to be achieved.
Given the slow growth rate of pepper production and exhausted carry over stocks, the prices may continue to rise in the world market"
We encourage the discussion of these points.
Send us your opinion about the figures, the trends, the presentation...
EDITOR PEPPERTRADE
2009/12/12
Pepper market Scenario during 2008/2009
Excerpts of the Final Report produced by IPC metting in Belem presented by the Executive Director of IPC
PRODUCTION
" During the last six years, world production or pepper declined consistently, with the exception of 2008, from 364,500 tons in 2003 to an estimated 310,636 tons in 2009, a rate of 2,5% per year.
The continuous decline in prices from the peak of averagedly U$D 5,610/ton for black pepper in New York in 1999 to the bottom level of around U$D 1,675/ton in 2004/2005.
However price increase in the late 2006 till the middle of 2008, has yet to show any impact to the increase in output. "
"Overall output was reported reduced in Indonesia, Brazil and Sri Lanka, India was reported stable and Vietnam increased."
2009
"During 2009, it is estimated that global pepper production would be lower by around 8,200 tons ( 3%) from 318,843 ton in 2008 to 310,636 ton in 2009 instead of the projection made during the last IPC meeting which was of 325,000 ton. As for the black pepper it is estimated a total of around 243,600 ton."
" Production of black pepper in Brazil, Indonesia and Sri Lanka is estimated to remain lower while production in Vietnam and Malaysia tend to increase"
EXPORTS
" During 2009, exports from most origins is expected to decrease, due to estimated lower output this year.
However, exports from Vietnam were suprisingly reported to increase substantially this year, offsetting lower exports of the other countries. During January-September 2009, export from Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Sri Lanka totaled at around 87,000 ton as against 102,500 tons in the same period of the last year, showing a significant fall of 15%.
If this performance is extrapolated to the situation of total export from these countries in the year, it is estimated that export of pepper from these five countries in 2009 would be around 112,500 ton.
Some sources reported that Vietnam has shipped 120,000 ton of pepper during January - October 2009. Observing this performance, about 130,000 tons of pepper would be achievable to be shipped from Vietnam during this year. Taking into account that export from other sources ( China, Thailand, Madagascar, Ecuador, etc.) at around 10,000 ton, the total export of pepper in 2009 would be around 252,500 ton."
PRICES
"Price fluctuates from year to year depending upon demand and supply. During 2008 till beginning of 2009, pepper prices experienced a decrease and moved up again in the second semester of the year.
In addition of increased supply in 2008, the decrease in prices was influenced also by demand factor, since global economic turmoil in 2008 has lowered demand of main consuming countrues, such as United States and European countries."
CONCLUSION
"Global pepper production in 2009 would be lower, while the export indicates an increasing trend. As a result of drop in production and exhausted carry over stocks, increased prices could be expected in the global market."
"It is also evident that the productivity of traditional pepper producing countries remains at low level, making remuneration to the farmers not attractive to remain in the industry."
"For both black and white pepper the lucrative prices experienced from around early 2007 toearly 2008 is yet to be achieved.
Given the slow growth rate of pepper production and exhausted carry over stocks, the prices may continue to rise in the world market"
We encourage the discussion of these points.
Send us your opinion about the figures, the trends, the presentation...
EDITOR PEPPERTRADE
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
Can India sustain current Bull Rally ?
New Delhi 27/10/2009
Indian future delivery prices which got triggered from Friday with domestic traders paying up the asking prices of sellers as the pepper traders/stockiest are getting tired besides the speculators as the yearly average prices have been hovering around inr 145/-per kg for the garbled stuff and usd 140 for the farmgate pepper since 2006 june although other commodities have soared as high as 2 to 3 times of its value.
Interestingly since money talks the spot pepper prices have not moved up in tandem with the future delivery prices as operators are still not comfortable going long because fundamentals of the market are proving right.
The Indian casino players have been playing with statistics of Vietnam and Indonesian crop estimates and carry overs all got stunned with Vietnam exporting close to almost 40% more of its predicted crop numbers and Indonesia becoming a "akshya Patra" ( never ending source) for importers .
India the cheerleader hardly exports any of its origin pepper but trade millions of tones in the National Agri Casino ( where the price of pepper is different for same delivery although specifications are same ) Although Indonesia has increased the asking prices to usd 3050 to usd 3100 fob panjang surprisingly Vietnam and Brazil are keeping their tags much below to have more business. Cheer leader India has got its own pockets to park the pepper at very high prices to fellow comrades which is being completely ignored by Vietnamese and Sri Lankans who get excited by the waves in the Indian Casino.
There is a hue and Cry that there is no farmgate pepper available in the terminal market, but according to Mr Jojan Malayil of Bafna Enterprises and the countrys largest exporter of Indian Origin black pepper in various forms said " I disagree to the statements which are coming from various corners as the national Exchanges who have so far not defaulted on Pepper deliveries whatever they trade at the end of the day is available for physical deliveries which are as good as physical pepper and is available in thousands of tones for those who require it but should be prepared to forget contract specifications . One has to see whether the domestic demand will continue at higher levels or the demand will dry up if the futures start dropping.
The Indian price tag of Asta pepper has moved to usd 3275-3300 pmt fob Cochin against Indonesians usd 3050-3100 fob Panjang and Vietnams usd 3100-3150 pmt fob Hochiminh and Brazil usd 2850 fob Belem.
Jennifer La Rive
Indian future delivery prices which got triggered from Friday with domestic traders paying up the asking prices of sellers as the pepper traders/stockiest are getting tired besides the speculators as the yearly average prices have been hovering around inr 145/-per kg for the garbled stuff and usd 140 for the farmgate pepper since 2006 june although other commodities have soared as high as 2 to 3 times of its value.
Interestingly since money talks the spot pepper prices have not moved up in tandem with the future delivery prices as operators are still not comfortable going long because fundamentals of the market are proving right.
The Indian casino players have been playing with statistics of Vietnam and Indonesian crop estimates and carry overs all got stunned with Vietnam exporting close to almost 40% more of its predicted crop numbers and Indonesia becoming a "akshya Patra" ( never ending source) for importers .
India the cheerleader hardly exports any of its origin pepper but trade millions of tones in the National Agri Casino ( where the price of pepper is different for same delivery although specifications are same ) Although Indonesia has increased the asking prices to usd 3050 to usd 3100 fob panjang surprisingly Vietnam and Brazil are keeping their tags much below to have more business. Cheer leader India has got its own pockets to park the pepper at very high prices to fellow comrades which is being completely ignored by Vietnamese and Sri Lankans who get excited by the waves in the Indian Casino.
There is a hue and Cry that there is no farmgate pepper available in the terminal market, but according to Mr Jojan Malayil of Bafna Enterprises and the countrys largest exporter of Indian Origin black pepper in various forms said " I disagree to the statements which are coming from various corners as the national Exchanges who have so far not defaulted on Pepper deliveries whatever they trade at the end of the day is available for physical deliveries which are as good as physical pepper and is available in thousands of tones for those who require it but should be prepared to forget contract specifications . One has to see whether the domestic demand will continue at higher levels or the demand will dry up if the futures start dropping.
The Indian price tag of Asta pepper has moved to usd 3275-3300 pmt fob Cochin against Indonesians usd 3050-3100 fob Panjang and Vietnams usd 3100-3150 pmt fob Hochiminh and Brazil usd 2850 fob Belem.
Jennifer La Rive
Thursday, October 22, 2009
India pepper - Heavy Pressure mounts on Bulls
New Delhi 22/10/2009
The Indian Black Pepper currently priced highest in the world next to Malay Pepper has come under pressure as there are no demands for it from overseas markets and the expected buying from domestic market still to come. With Indian rupee appreciating against usd the cfr prices out of India has become very expensive keeping overseas importers away but it was interesting to see although the currencies in Brazil and Indonesia were also close to 6% stronger against usd they have not increased their asking prices like India. Vietnam who is said to have exported more than 110000 mt is still willing to wheel and deal with 500 gl faq pepper offered @ usd 2600 pmt fob Hcmc and 550 gl pepper offered @ usd 2750 pmt fob Hcmc and Vietnam Special Asta 570 gl and no guarantees on light pepper is offered @ usd 3000 fob Hcmc for shipment very promptly after placing orders According to Ms Nguyen who has been associated with Vietnam pepper exports ever since they have started exports of both black and white pepper and a very trusted source who added the current typhoon loss is not to exceed 5000 mt of production for 2010 .
Reports from Hcmc states that Vietnam has already exported 3665 mt pepper in the first 15 days making the balance available stock to only 1952 mt as per Hindu business Line a leading business daily who are following every movement on a 24 hour basis but the fact is Vietnam still has 20000 mt more to export before the new crop hits in February 2010 who have weighed the balance stocks on 30th September 30th at 5617 tm. These kind of absurd news really misleads small and medium players in pepper who are vanishing on a daily basis because of the excessive speculation happening on pepper in the National Exchanges. They have 6 contracts in place but 90% of the trade is happening only on the near month contract and nothing is happening on the far month which means no price discovery is happening in the exchange but only rampant speculation.
The Bulls in India will be saved only by domestic demand as value added processors are back into imports who at one point have completely written off imports for the rest of the year. With higher prices currently in India and weaker usd favors imports value added processors who at one point hedged their overseas sales in Indian exchanges are now seen selling off and replacing it with cheaper imported pepper out of Sri Lanka and Indonesia
Jennifer LaRive
The Indian Black Pepper currently priced highest in the world next to Malay Pepper has come under pressure as there are no demands for it from overseas markets and the expected buying from domestic market still to come. With Indian rupee appreciating against usd the cfr prices out of India has become very expensive keeping overseas importers away but it was interesting to see although the currencies in Brazil and Indonesia were also close to 6% stronger against usd they have not increased their asking prices like India. Vietnam who is said to have exported more than 110000 mt is still willing to wheel and deal with 500 gl faq pepper offered @ usd 2600 pmt fob Hcmc and 550 gl pepper offered @ usd 2750 pmt fob Hcmc and Vietnam Special Asta 570 gl and no guarantees on light pepper is offered @ usd 3000 fob Hcmc for shipment very promptly after placing orders According to Ms Nguyen who has been associated with Vietnam pepper exports ever since they have started exports of both black and white pepper and a very trusted source who added the current typhoon loss is not to exceed 5000 mt of production for 2010 .
Reports from Hcmc states that Vietnam has already exported 3665 mt pepper in the first 15 days making the balance available stock to only 1952 mt as per Hindu business Line a leading business daily who are following every movement on a 24 hour basis but the fact is Vietnam still has 20000 mt more to export before the new crop hits in February 2010 who have weighed the balance stocks on 30th September 30th at 5617 tm. These kind of absurd news really misleads small and medium players in pepper who are vanishing on a daily basis because of the excessive speculation happening on pepper in the National Exchanges. They have 6 contracts in place but 90% of the trade is happening only on the near month contract and nothing is happening on the far month which means no price discovery is happening in the exchange but only rampant speculation.
The Bulls in India will be saved only by domestic demand as value added processors are back into imports who at one point have completely written off imports for the rest of the year. With higher prices currently in India and weaker usd favors imports value added processors who at one point hedged their overseas sales in Indian exchanges are now seen selling off and replacing it with cheaper imported pepper out of Sri Lanka and Indonesia
Jennifer LaRive
Problem with our Servers
We regret to inform that we were facing problems with our servers last days and thus we couldnt upload and update the PEPPERTRADE web site.
Apparently the problems are being solved and hopefully by the end of the week we will be ok again
PEPPERTRADE EDITOR
Apparently the problems are being solved and hopefully by the end of the week we will be ok again
PEPPERTRADE EDITOR
Friday, October 16, 2009
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Global Trader in Commodities and Produce
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