Re: Are The Bears Back ??

I don't think the pepper market is going to be in bear hug again but a much awaited correction especially the cheer leader Indian Ncdex and the followers in other producing countries who ran their prices much faster than a bullet train not allowing anyone to get in and get out.. There is still lot of buying needs to be done from now to the Vietnamese crop so buyers will be stepping in any moment as they have realized that the pepper prices are not going to go back to usd 2200 fob levels for this year any more.

With Vietnam shipping 85000 mt of current crop as of 10th August and 5000 mt through border trade balance remaining according to VPA estimates is only 5000 mt but the quantity lying in Vietnam will be the tune of 30000 mt including stocks imported from Indonesia to Vietnam ( 3000 mt ) and already committed stocks till the end of the year.. How much of this is going to be available for exports before the new crop is one thing should be closely watched. No one knows even the Indonesians themselves how much they produce and how much they export and what is the carry over ?? Always a million Dollar question !!!!Their exports to USA alone in the month of may or rather arrival of pepper into USA in the month of June were 2,464 ton !

With sales done for June thru sept to USA India and Vietnam mainly the balance available for sales from Indonesia will be maximum from now and new crop according to our friends in Indonesia will be only 5000 mt .The pressure from there also will be very minimal. India will come once in an year for a day or a week showing attractive numbers but suddenly vanish from the scene. Buying at dips recommended for sept and oct shipments as prudent and patient traders will wait for Brazil to come with their crop in the next 8 weeks.

Received from "Anonimous"...