Re: Bullish Trend

Dear Editor

No doubt the trend is bullish if we look at the fundamentals but severe cheating on carryover stocks and production figures from both Vietnam and Indonesia has completely shattered the calculation of traditional pepper traders who were taking views on production figures/carry over stocks . In the IPC meeting in Hochiminh Vietnam came our with a production figure of 85000 mt later revised to 95000 as exports kept increasing and the latest revision was during first week September putting the figure at 105000 and now that exports in the first 9 months are over 110000 mt and 3 more months to go we will be seeing further revisions as they themselves don’t know whats their crop and carryover stocks. Indonesians know all these but don’t share with the rest of the pepper community obviously for their own reasons. Recent Typhoon and earthquakes in Vietnam and Indonesia had made no impact in these countries pricing but we have seen a spur in Indian Pepper exchange but not in the available spot material which hardly has many takers . It was surprising to see speculators prepared to buy 145 per kg oct mg-1 deliveries but not willing to buy farmgate pepper @ inr 140/141/kg levels. So its evident that its more of speculative buying rather than actual demand buying. USA grinders seem to be covered for oct/nov/dec shipments and now what we will be seeing only fill up demands. According to our sources if the market does not pick up in the month of October then the next action can be seen only in mid January when industrial buyers are back after Christmas and newyear holidays.Markets are likely to remain range bound as currency in major producing countries are getting stronger day by day and prices in usd terms are creeping high although on cansee sporadic sales at discounted levels from Cash struck exporters

Cheers

Jeenifer La Rive