INDIAN PEPPER FUTURES LIKELY TO DROP ANOTHER RS15 PER KG IN TANDEM WITH INTERNATIONAL PEPPER PRICES

The Indian Pepper prices which is currently ruling highest in the world because of its huge domestic consumption is likely to drop heavily from the second week of August according to the indications we receive from overseas markets. The neighbouring island nation whose new crop is ready has become agressive and offering its 525 g/l variety cnf cochin for august shipment at usd 3.950 pkg (Rs 185.49 per kg ) without finding buyers and same is the case with Indonesian new crop which is offered in all directions and from all shippers and resellers at usd 4.30 per kg cfc 1.5 (Rs 201.9 Per kg )New york delivered. Brazil very quitely accepting some deals for august/sept shipments on special payment terms by farmers /exporters who require cash at usd 4.20 per kg. Indian mg1 asta prices are currently the most expensive pepper quoted cfc 1.5 ny at usd 4.850 per kg cfc 1.5 Ny ( Rs 227.73 per kg ) With indian pepper futures dropping almost Rs 200 per ton from last weeks high the hunger for pepper has subsided from north indian speculative traders and they have become sellers to book their lossess in the main northern indian markets Delhi and jaipur. I do not think the current higher prices can sustain for long if no export demands coming to the country and since exporters have physical stocks which are already hedged in the exchange platform might become physical deliveries if the expected overseas demand does not show up; and this scenario will make available more stocks in the system and markets can drop substantially from current levels and move down to 190-192 per kg for nearby August deliveries according to expert analysts in the national commodity exchanges.