Pepper to remain flat till mid September

Dear Editor,

London 09th August 2010
With Summer holidays underway in Europe and USA where buyers are away on annual vaccation Black and White pepper which are currently in "Bear Hug" will continue to remain so as the cheer leader India lost steam without finding buyers for pepper at higher levels. Speculators who bought pepper thinking that it was going to hit lifetime high prices like all other commodities were pressed to the wall With Vietnam and Indonesia once again misleading carryforward and production figures for 2010 and was undercutting Indian prices and getting most of the sales for even winter period which was a last resort for indian exporters who are engaged in exporting genuine and pure Malabar Black pepper.Brazil and Indonesia pushed for sales and lowered their price tags below usd 4000 fob Belem/ Panjang couldnt attract many buyers as exporters there for vying sales and some of them even sold below usd 3900 belam for immediate cash and since arrivals peaked up in Lampong exporters were even offering at usd 3925 pmt fob but only for August and september shipments,

India the country which claims to have the highest domestic consumption of 40000- 45000 pmt seems to have dried up available stocks of farmgate as even after prices hitting Indian Rupees 210-215 per kg there was a big reluctance to sell which obviously means two things one is the available stocks are over and the other is the greed continues as all were praying for Inr 200 for a decade and when it came none wanted to sell. The country is still said to be carrying one crop under their bed and not willing to release it as current levels do not seem to be interesting. Meanwhile the monsoon showers has been pretty good so far and the 2011 crop looks promising at this time but it is stilll early as only by October we will get a clear picture. Indonesia the mystery place continue to be the worlds biggest ASTA pepper supplier for 2010 with almost all American orders under their belt and some exporters have quitely sold till the end of the year when indian futures hit the decade high of Rs 220 per kg in the month of july.

Vietnam who projected their exportable surplus for 2010 at 90000 mt have already exported 85000 mt through official custom route and 10000 mt through cross border trades still has 25000 mt according to pessimist exporters and 35000 mt according to optimists but God only knows the real truth and one has to wait till Jan 10 2011 to know the real story.

Sri Lanka the indian neighbour where the new crop is underway are soliciting orders at usd 3700 cnf cochin I(Indian rupees 170.77 per kg ) is still not getting buyers as the indian exporters are heard sitting on a pile of pepper finding no place to sell other than the national commodity exchanges which seems to have depressed the sentiments of the Bulls and markets have fallen to Bear Hug

Emmar Jay for Peppertrade Blog