Is the Bull Party getting over ??

Is the Bull Party getting over ??

The current bull run spearheaded by Indian Casino Players may be extended for another usd 200 pmt locally before they crash it to 13500 levels in September but the bull party which was happening globally following Indian live Casino seems to be getting over as origins like Indonesia, Vietnam and Brazil stopped following the Indian futures and have started doing their things seriously.
With the news spreading that Indian farmgate pepper is trading inr 8-10 per kg than what they are seeing on the screen both Indonesia and Vietnam slashed their prices on asta variety last night to usd 1.43/lb for Sept thru December shipment .
Brazil was concentrating only on nearby sales fearing getting caught on exchange rates was offering B2 @ usd 2650 fob B1 @ usd 2750 fob and Basta @ usd 2850 fob Belem for sept shipments with reported Biz of 200 mt of B1 @ usd 2700 fob Belem from european traders which will create problems and some cooling off in Vietnam as Brazilian pepper is much cleaner than vietnam 500 g/l and 550 g/l pepper.

It looks like in India the demand for home use of speculators are not over for the paper contracts as spot farmgate pepper which is available at147-150 are not being picked up but 161 sept paper contracts are picked up in thousands of tons.Its nothing but rampant speculation which is happening in India with the blessing of the regulator and the volume hungry comex and new generation analysts experimenting technical charts which are not natural charts but made up charts of speculators which will kill many small and medium investors.

Both domestic and overseas buyers are keeping away from the market and the only demand currently is from speculators who are paying huge premiums for sept and oct deliveries there by enticing investors to step in buying spot and sell future deliveries. Most of the locals were praying for 150 levels to happen to get out and some are exiting while greedy ones are waiting to wait for another year to see these levels again if the anticipated demand every one was waiting for doesn't show up.

Jennifer La Rive

Comment Re: "Pepper turns hot again as...

Dear Sir,

I'm Ta, a senior trader of pepper for one of five biggest pepper exporters in Vietnam. After reading the article named "Pepper turns hot again as sellers hold back stocks", I see that your figure is rather exact as some official sources in Vietnam except the quantity of cross-border export pepper (to China and Combodia) of 5,000mts. From my survey three weeks ago, five large suppliers in Binh Duong province and one in Chu Se (a largest production area of Gia Lai province) have been exporting white pepper to China and Combodia at quantity of 2,000 - 3,000mts per supplier and total quantity is about 15,000-18,000mts. That means total quantity of black pepper only used for processing above quantity of white pepper is about 20,000 - 25,000mts.

Therefore, the maximum stock of black pepper in Vietnam until July 31th will be 12,000-15,000mts and far lower than figure on your article. Please check the number again and amend correctly so that every one can understand the real situation of the market.

Thanks and best regards,
Mr Ta

Post 18/08/2009
Re: "Pepper turns hot again as...
http://www.peppertrade.com.br/comment9421.htm

Re:Who Plays Whom or who is trying to squeeze whom ??

Who Plays Whom or who is trying to squeeze whom ??

Origins along with the current worlds largest pepper trader are the ones squeezing the shorts and those who need to buy according to the study made indepth by our team who were visiting vsrious origins and major trading centers Singapore,Rotterdam and Hamburg. Actually there is no shortage of pepper till the new crop of india and Vietnam the major ones are not faraway and the current stocks and coming Brazilian crop can take care of normal needs.But the market is played in such a manner and making availability an issue and which can trigger a bull run which will hurt many players in origins and consuming countries.


Oportunities will come and go and one has to watch the market carefully and if needs to buy, buy that moment and dont get caught.Indian futures after august deliveries are planned to be taken to inr 160 by speculators with the help of kid analysts of major broking arms .who will be giving buy calls as their jobs are at stake if they dont get required volumes to keep their jobs intact.

Lets wait and see how the market is going to behave next week where we will be hearing lot of stories from various corners.

JLR

WHO PLAYS (GAMBLES) WHOM ?

Pepper - The Trigger of the Bull run
2009/08/15


The last July 30 an article was published by VietNamNet Bridge , distributed to and re-published by several specialized media, including Peppertrade Website under the original title " Vietnamese pepper exporters sell them cheap".
According many analist the publishing of this aritcle may have triggered the market rush which drove to extreme prices volatility that marked all this week.
Among other bombastic afirmations the article mentioned that VPA Board has predicted that pepper prices would reach U$ 5,000 pmt until the end of the year and suggested exporters to control the sales in order to increase the prices.

Immediately after this publication went out, the VPA board issue a note contesting the facts and the terms of such article, deniyng as false all the infomations of the said article which Peppertrade also published. Unfortunately this Contesting Note did not received the same attention from other media.

Now we got to learn the original report issued upon the meeting of the Executive Board of the VPA held for the evaluation of the first semester of 2009, futures plans and actions and other administrative issues.
The whole document is extense and some parts of it are internal administrative questions, and for that reason we publish only a part of it under the sub-title:

Forecast for the entire months of the year and some key matters

No panic trading in spot pepper

2009/08/14


JLR
KochiAugust 14, 2009
The futures market of black pepper does not move in tandem with the real market parameters as there is no panic trading in spot even after futures prices collapsed heavily by almost 10% in 3 days and slightly recovered today at close of business.

Difference between September and indicative spot farmgate pepper prices are still greater at around Rs 800 a quintal according to India Pepper and Spice Trade Association who still dictates spot prices to all media since decades.

It is the low stock in the country that seems to determine the course of action in the market rather than speculative trading in futures.
It is because of this, there are nosellers even after the prices plummetted heavily in 3 trading sessions.
India is no longer a major global player, thanks to low-stock and theLicenced casino Ncdex.The country commands a stock of around 10,000 tonnes which can be consumed domestically during the winter season. But the ongoing bear phase in futures trading has badly hit the domestic demand, said traditional pepper traders of Wyanad and Idukki.
The trend caused a slowdown in the demand from upcountry markets for the time being but market sources expect an improvement once the prices stabilised.

Meanwhile Vietnam which opened today their 500 g/l trades @ usd 2450 pmt have traded it late in the evening to as high as usd 2600 pmt fob hcmc for prompt shipments.
No news from Indonesia today as they are carefully watching the movement and brazilian pepper prices are steady unchanged.

What we lack is consumer buying in india as well as from overseas and the bull rallies will sustain only if that happens according to Mr Jojan Malayil Vice Chairman All India Spices Exporters Forum.

Jennifer LaRive

Re: Are The Bears Back ??

I don't think the pepper market is going to be in bear hug again but a much awaited correction especially the cheer leader Indian Ncdex and the followers in other producing countries who ran their prices much faster than a bullet train not allowing anyone to get in and get out.. There is still lot of buying needs to be done from now to the Vietnamese crop so buyers will be stepping in any moment as they have realized that the pepper prices are not going to go back to usd 2200 fob levels for this year any more.

With Vietnam shipping 85000 mt of current crop as of 10th August and 5000 mt through border trade balance remaining according to VPA estimates is only 5000 mt but the quantity lying in Vietnam will be the tune of 30000 mt including stocks imported from Indonesia to Vietnam ( 3000 mt ) and already committed stocks till the end of the year.. How much of this is going to be available for exports before the new crop is one thing should be closely watched. No one knows even the Indonesians themselves how much they produce and how much they export and what is the carry over ?? Always a million Dollar question !!!!Their exports to USA alone in the month of may or rather arrival of pepper into USA in the month of June were 2,464 ton !

With sales done for June thru sept to USA India and Vietnam mainly the balance available for sales from Indonesia will be maximum from now and new crop according to our friends in Indonesia will be only 5000 mt .The pressure from there also will be very minimal. India will come once in an year for a day or a week showing attractive numbers but suddenly vanish from the scene. Buying at dips recommended for sept and oct shipments as prudent and patient traders will wait for Brazil to come with their crop in the next 8 weeks.

Received from "Anonimous"...

Are Bears Back???

It was last Saturday of July 2009 when a report from US renowned broker was sent to the spices traders all over the world.

But this time it had something special, good news for pepper sellers.

The report really made everything active.
The buyers started writing emails, short messages and phone calls to the origin sellers.
Consequently on Next Monday there was a surge for usd50-75/mt in Vietnam.
But the activitiy was not abnormal throughout the week.

In the meantime an unauthenticated report was published in a Vietnamese paper claiming that VPA has advised the exporters not to sell pepper at the current levels and the price might touch usd5000 in last months. They also mentioned that top ten Vietnamese exporters had decided to hold the goods and they got support from a consortium of banks.

The articles contents were not at all logical and it seems that it was published by some people having interest in bullish market.
At the same time Brazilian crop size was re estimated and figure was down sized. Indian players became active and they told that lesser monsoon rains could affect pepper crop in India. It made exchanges highly active and the speculators started pushing the prices on minutely basis.

These all factors were enough to make market crazy.

The buyers started chasing sellers on last Monday and it continued till Monday 10/8.
Origins increased prices on hourly basis. On Monday 3/8 the price for FAQ 500g/l was usd2300 fob and touched usd2600 on Friday.
Friday evening the packers and farmers thought that it was not useful to sell pepper as every day its price was increasing, so they finally decided not to sell.
On Saturday there was very tight position and pepper buyer was chasing the suppliers and they were getting the responses NO PEPPER IN VIETNAM,NO OFFER,FARMERS NOT SELLING, etc etc.

Surprisingly we received a call from a big supplier from Vietnam offering usd2600 fob.
As per our experience this type of call like: One of our supplier needs money that’s why he is selling at lower level: has definitely something wrong means sign of bearishness.
We though that the market will loose momentum on coming Monday. But our guess failed and on Monday 10^th of August there was huge upsurge in the price and people started asking usd2950 fob, most of the sellers were not offering. It was really a big shock for the buyers who were waiting for the market to come down and had not taken the positions.
It was also worrying the people who had confirmed at lower levels and had doubts for default.

But Tuesday 11 Th August proved that it was the climax of the drama and 33% upsurge just in two weeks was not a joke.
The price was down by usd200-250/mt and many exporters were calling to say hello hi and were eager to sell. Vietnam market for FAQ was usd2650-75 again.
We think people paid attention to the VPA statement that Vietnam had 25000 mt in hand till the new crop 2010 enters the market. They totally denied the contents of the article published in Vietnamese Paper citing VPA.VPA predicted the prices at the current levels or there might insignificant upsurge in coming days.

Now the question is what’s reality? Why the prices became so high and in such a short time and what’s the possibility in coming days? Is the trend starting on Tuesday a mere profit taking, a correction or the time for bears to dance?

Though it’s a difficult question but if we see supply and demand situation and other factors like crop’s delay in Brazil, Vietnam new crop’s time and relatively thin stocks there, uncovered big buyers in US, the word Correction best suits the situation. The market behaved in abnormal way last week and there was a price surge of 100 or even 200 and 300 usd leaving a gap which must be filled before the next Bull Run.

Muhammad Asif Qureshi

Dynamic International Traders

Pakistan.
asifq82@hotmail.com