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about this time of the year,

when everything has a special glow,

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May these lights shine for all
for Happiness, Prosperity and Good luck !
These are our wishes from Peppertrade Board

We wish all our friends, clients & associates on the occasion of Diwali – the festival of lights here in India and may this auspicious period usher us into an era of unending happiness, more prosperity and lots of good luck!

Jaymeagh Spices, Jew Town, Cochin 682 002, India

Re: Bullish Trend

Dear Editor

No doubt the trend is bullish if we look at the fundamentals but severe cheating on carryover stocks and production figures from both Vietnam and Indonesia has completely shattered the calculation of traditional pepper traders who were taking views on production figures/carry over stocks . In the IPC meeting in Hochiminh Vietnam came our with a production figure of 85000 mt later revised to 95000 as exports kept increasing and the latest revision was during first week September putting the figure at 105000 and now that exports in the first 9 months are over 110000 mt and 3 more months to go we will be seeing further revisions as they themselves don’t know whats their crop and carryover stocks. Indonesians know all these but don’t share with the rest of the pepper community obviously for their own reasons. Recent Typhoon and earthquakes in Vietnam and Indonesia had made no impact in these countries pricing but we have seen a spur in Indian Pepper exchange but not in the available spot material which hardly has many takers . It was surprising to see speculators prepared to buy 145 per kg oct mg-1 deliveries but not willing to buy farmgate pepper @ inr 140/141/kg levels. So its evident that its more of speculative buying rather than actual demand buying. USA grinders seem to be covered for oct/nov/dec shipments and now what we will be seeing only fill up demands. According to our sources if the market does not pick up in the month of October then the next action can be seen only in mid January when industrial buyers are back after Christmas and newyear holidays.Markets are likely to remain range bound as currency in major producing countries are getting stronger day by day and prices in usd terms are creeping high although on cansee sporadic sales at discounted levels from Cash struck exporters

Cheers

Jeenifer La Rive

Bullish Trend

Reports fm Vietnam fundament bullish trend
2009/10/08


October 8, 2009
Last September 22, a report form Vietnam was warning that Vietnam had 20,000 tons of Pepper for exports by late 2009.

The article reported:

Vietnam has left only 15,000-20,000 tons of pepper for exports in the remaining months of 2009, according to the Vietnam Pepper Association (VPA).The VPA estimated that the country would harvest 105,000 tons of pepper this year, of which up to 95,000 tons worth US$228 million were shipped abroad already in the first eight months.In August, the country sold abroad 13,113 tons of pepper worth US$34.8 million, down 5.28% in volume and up 1.02% in value against the previous month.

The U.S. continued to be the largest importer of Vietnam’s pepper, purchasing 1,916 tons in the month.
The United Arab Emirates ranked second with 1,623 tons.Germany and Egypt followed with respective figures of 928 tons and 861 tons.

Prices of pepper have recently started rising in Vietnam thanks to soaring global demand. On September 9, pepper was sold for VND47,500 per kilo in the central highlands province of Dak Lak, the highest level since early 2009..
VPA is encouraging its members to meet market requirements by further investing in appropriate processing equipment.Vietnam, the world’s leading pepper exporter, is expected to export 100,000 tons of pepper in 2009, an increase of 10,000 tons over last year..
(Youth, CPV)


Nevertheless on October 6 the VPA _ Vietnam Pepper Association reported a 14,000 ton exported volume in September amd 111,110 for the first nine month of the year.
If both information proceed it seems like Vietnam has less than 5,000 tons left to the end of the year and the new crop which by other reports, risks to be much smaller than expected due to adverse weather.as reported earlier this week.

Thus the reason for a consistent altough still light bullish trend.
PEPPERTRADE EDITOR

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Rains in Vietnam

Information from Vietnam
From Vietnam October 6, 2009
Typhoon No. 9 cause broken down about 1,000 hectares pepper in Gia Lai, Dak Lak
According to sources from local, Typhoon No. 9 caused severe damage; Particularly for pepper plants, about 1,000 hectares broken down, debris, including Gialai about 500 hectares , Dak Lak province about 400 hectares.

In Chu Se district, Gia Lai province, according to information from the Association Chu Se Pepper said incomplete statistics: More than 152,000 pillars equivalents about 75 hectares broken down completely and hundreds of hectares were put crushed pepper reduced yield of 20%.
Preliminary assessment on production crop 2009, due to weather conditions are not favorable, production of pepper reduction 40% in compared with crop 2008. This will strongly impact the supply, demand, pricing pepper domestic market and export-import market pepper in 2010.
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