Indian pepper growers faced with sell or hold dilemma

By K.P. Sethunath
Kochi, Jul. 27 (CRISIL MarketWire) –

To sell or hold is the dilemma facing pepper growers even as Indian pepper is getting too hot for overseas buyers with prices surging ahead rapidly during the past few days, dealers said. Lack of fresh export orders is worrying as India may miss a good opportunity to recapture part of the global market share it lost to Vietnam, they said.
* * *
Sell or hold:
A section of dealers said it would be prudent for sellers to offload part of their stocks to take advantage of the current high prices.
ndia is the only place having enough ready stocks and it should sell part of it before supply from countries like Indonesia reach market, they said.
“India should not hold umbrella for others to jack up price as there is no guarantee that they will not under quote to sell their stuff,” said a dealer.
A concerted move to sell part of the holding is unlikely, as priorities of individual sellers are different, said Ajay Mariwala, a leading exporter.
“It (strategic selling) is a nice idea, but I don’t think it sounds practical,” he said.
Tight supply due to sellers holding stocks will not allow any such concerted action, said Kishore Shamji, another leading exporter.
“Where is the pepper,” was his reply when asked about chances of sellers offloading part of stocks to take advantage of the situation.

Global Supply:
Jakarta-based International Pepper Community has projected a 10-15% fall in global pepper output during 2006 (Jan-Dec) compared with last year.
Adverse climatic conditions, low productivity etc. are some of the reasons cited for fall in output.
This is the major factor triggering the present high prices.
Vietnam the largest supplier to the world is left with little stocks, as they have exported bulk of their output, said Thomas Philip of Cochin Spices.
Indonesia, another major producer is also likely to have lower output this year (2006) compared with last year (2005).
Indonesian crop, expected to be around 15,000 tonnes compared with 22,000 tonnes last year, is also delayed due to adverse weather, he said.
It is expected only in second week or late August, he added.
Brazil, another major pepper producer, is also expected to show lower output this year, he said.
According to IPC, total output in major producing countries, is estimated to be 201,800 tonnes in 2006, down 33,200 tonnes compared with last year.

Prices peaking too early:
Estimates by IPC are pointing towards a tight supply situation leading to bullish phase for pepper, dealers said.
However, most of them feel that domestic prices have peaked too early.
“The situation is appears to be bullish for pepper. But we feel domestic prices peaked little early,” said Jojan Malayil, of Bafna Enterprises.
“We expected prices to scale the current level after getting a clear picture of Indonesian crop,” he said.
However, a section of dealers said there was nothing unusual in prices going up, as it was natural for sellers to take advantage of the anticipated fall in production.
Pepper spot prices in Kochi gained 5.5% Wednesday to 9,500 rupees per 100 kilogram compared with Tuesday while futures also made handsome gains.

VIETNAM PEPPER

Dear Sir
Thanks you very much for your email,
We are very glad to send you the information about the VIETNAM PEPPER as below:
As you know, the weather is not good in this year, so the productivity of this goods had been reduced about 30% comparing with the last year. Otherwise, there are a lot of tree died.
In this time, the market situation of this goods in Vietnam is very serene and scarce, the demand is bigger than supply. Therefore the price is very high.
It is very difficult for us buying this goods from domesict to send you the best quotation now. If this situation will be light in the next days then we will recalculate and send you the best offer.
Once again, thanks you very much for your warm cooperation.
Thanks with best regards,

DIRECTOR : Mr LE VAN ANH
COMPANY NAME: VEGETEXCO I HANOI, VIETNAM

BLACK PEPPER MARKET

Mr Michail Wagapoff ,

Hello Sir , How are you ?
Thanks for your reports on pepper market .
The sudden rise in pepper market in the last 4 weeks the increase is about 40%, price has risen from Rs 70000/ to 95000/ per MT ( 1500 to 2050 USD)unprocessed.

According to me it is not a artificial rise , but a situation which has risen from the REAL GLOBAL SHORTAGE prevailing.
The stock are with the financially strong growers and traders , In India we are of the opinion that a further rise in market upto RS 125000/ per MT (2700 USD) in the coming months.
In VIETNAMS, southeastern region the supporting trees have died affecting the PEPPER CREEPERS , There are news of droughts in VIETNAM.

To what extend are these reports true ?
Will this affect VIETNAMS coming years crop ?

Please let me know your BRAZILIAN PEPPER market.
Thanks and regards.

Mukesh Patel.
Mangaloer. (INDIA)

CLOVES MARKET - WHERE´S THE TRUTH ?

It has been more than one month already that we feel the cloves market very speculated with a sort of bullish reports but not big activity.
Peppertrade editors have a baseline to avoid speculative actions and movements, checking and re-checking received information in order to preserve our credibility and transmit as close as possible the market reality.
For this reason we kept in silence during all this time, moreover because the real true information about the crops, industry and stocks of the cloves is very difficult to be obtained within the desired accuracy.
However when news are being published in the big press we feel obliged to inform our readers too, even under this little considerations.
Apparently it is expected a big shortage of cloves this year, which is causing great boom in demanded prices.
Expectations are that these prices may reach somewhere between 6 and 8 thousand dollars per ton until the end of the year which is when the new African and Brazilian crops begin.
It has been reported that traders quoted Madagascan cloves at between $4,800 and $4,900 a tonne cif Singapore and at E 3,679 ($4,700) a tonne cif European ports at this moment and Indonesian offers were ranging from $5,500 to $5,800 a tonne c&f Indian ports.
Some traders say that, in view of the anticipated lower Indonesian output this year, prices of Indonesian cloves are likely to face sharp increases over the coming weeks. Trade estimates have pegged the Indonesian crop at just 35,000 tonnes. "They need at least twice this volume, " they say.One Bangalore trader remarked that world markets were virtually empty of clove stocks and he predicted that prices could easily surge to at least $6,500 a tonne over the coming weeks.

"The market is short and prices are high."
This is what some traders say. It is reported by some, that presently the market in Singapore is currently more expensive than that in Europe.The instability of the rupiah is making the market in Singapore and the Far East nervous. "As soon as it is stable again the market will move, " is been predicted.
Singapore, Pakistan and Dubai are headquarters of big stockist which may bring a sort of stability to the market with availablity all round the year. In february when the uncertainity begun one big trader in Singapore assured Peppertrade Editors that there were over 20,000 mt stocks lying there.
Actually these are the reports we have about the cloves at present time.
As one trader of a french trading company said:
"The market is very firm but not active, which is strange, " he said.
INDEED we say.

MORE ABOUT CLOVES IN INDIA

----- Original Message -----
From: dhirish
To: peppertrade@olcom.com.br
Sent: Monday, May 22, 2006 8:15 AM
Subject: reg cloves
dear sir

reg cloves mkts, india mkts will jump in few days, big cargo of cloves, areca nuts, pepper, misdeclared as srilanka cargo has been caught in india, these importers were misdeclaring cargo of indonesia cloves as srilanka cargo and clearing without import duty, in last 3-4 months more than 5000 tons imported, now all this cases will be reopened, import duty plus penalty to be collected, also importers will be sent to prison soonest.

please wait and see
regards

CLOVES IN INDIA

----- Original Message -----
From: dhirish
To: peppertrade@olcom.com.br
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2006 4:22 AM
Subject: reg cloves
dear sir

1. srilanka cloves, stock very limited, today prices at usd 6700-7000 per ton cif india

2. madagascar, brazil, comoros cloves at usd 4700-4900 levels, singapopre cloves mkyt hot as very less cargo there, today recd offers at usd 5200 for madagascar cloves

3. reg indonesia, all know that this year crop only 25%, huge losses due to less crop, plus added rains, every 5 years cloves crop are reduced to very short crops, this we have seen for last 35 years, also the gestation period is 7 years, so new crop planting takes 7 years to yield, next 2 years cloves mkts will remain bullish, as indonesia ands india will need 50000 tons for consumption, india yearly imports 15000 to 18000 tons cloves, but when there is shortages, the stockists buy 3 times the requirements, so please think of this situation

4. next 8 months deman will be very high, cloves prices are moving up very fast in india, we see 100 to 200 % jump in prices in next 2 months time

we hope this report will help many cloves traders
best regards
dhirish momaya

FUTURE TRENDS of BLACK PEPPER

From: mukesh patel
Sent: Thursday, May 18, 2006 1:00 PM
Subject: Future trends of BLACK PEPPER.



RESPECTED SIR,
I MUKESH PATEL, A traders in BLACK PEPPER in INDIA (MANGALORE) A firm by name K M B ENTERPRISES.

In INDIA , PEPPER PRODUCTION is less by 35% , This year production about 45000/ MT .There are less arrivals ,
The prices here are RS 71000 Per MT (1600) US DOLLARS PER MT MG1.
We expect that this year PEPPER rate increases by 40% of the last year.
Please let me know what your PRODUCTION ? and YOUR PREDICTIONS .
SORRY for the INCONVENIENCE CAUSED to you.
THANKING YOU.
MUKESH PATEL.
MANGALORE. (INDIA.)