Sunday, November 21, 2010

Pepper Futures to fall on "Ground Reality"
Sham Nair expresses his opinion

Kochi November 21 2010
With indian farmers releasing close to 5000 mt of black pepper stocks quite unexpectedly from the beginning of the month the tightness of the spot availability of the spice eased off and with 1085 mt stocks of so called mG-1 stocks made available to all the exporters from exchange platform ; the Black pepper futures currently running at a hefty premium will drop in the coming days and one is seeing ground reality of pepper trade currently according to the veterans of Pepper trade in India

We seldom see india as an origin seller when prices are low but they emerge as the principle source when prices peak commented a trader in Germany who didnt want to quote his name. There is no other origin like india who wil keep one crop below their beds and will show to the world when prices reach the usd 5000 mark he added.

Since farmgate pepper is continously availabe between Rs 10- 15 a kg depending on density of the material delivered to warehouses of exporters, major exporters are not running after exchange delivered pepper and in the recently matured November contract Nine exporters have together picked up only 50% of the total delivereis tendered by a major broking houses account of several clientse stocks were loosing validity on december 5th .

With continued availability of farmgate pepper and limited overseas demands currently and hardly any domestic demand, with new crop arrivals just 6 weeks away the expensive pepper futures are likely to fall on Ground reality although Funds will try to hold it for some more time trying to pass the hat to retail investors.

Weekend prices quoted in new York markets on friday 20th november were as follows

Brazil 560 g/l usd 4750 fob Belem Brazi BASTA usd 4850 fob Belem Indonesian ASTA usd 4950- 5050 fob panjnag Indian mg-1 asta usd 4900- 5100 fob cochin according to Newyourk based broking companies of spices.

Sham Nair


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