Dear Editor
USD 4000 for pepper will be achieved in India in the futures delivery prices but hard to achieve in the spot segment . We do not have a shortage of the spice but prices are kept by highly speculative elements in India and again followed by Vietnam for no reason but to get hurt. Indonesians continue to ignore this and go forward and selling at usd 3375- 3400 for July/August/Sept shipments and for nearby shipments Vietnam also willing to sell its ASTA pepper at usd 3375 pmt fob Hcmc. India keeping its price at usd 3800 fob cochin is holding the umbrella for other countries to get the lions share of the world market. In the past one year Indonesia has emerged as the dark horse and Villian not allowing the pepper prices to move beyond a certain level with the agressive marketing by the Bold and Beautiful there by kindling the hopes of the Indian Bulls and Vietnamese Bulls to rally the prices further. If the speculators suddenly leave the scene India will become very competetive immediately in the world market and the prospects of exporting 5000 mt to asta markets will brighten according to major players handling Indian Pepper.
What we see currently is heavy inflow of imported Black pepper from Vietnam,Indonesia and Sri lanka into Cochin in the month of april and more to come in May exporters are staying away from the spot market and some of them still buying and selling future deliveries as the arbitrage is very good .
Its true that many industries need to cover pepper for the second half of the year but are not jumping and waiting patiently to see that prices are settled and since Indonesia is already in the market to sell at usd 3375 pmt fob panjang for july/Aug/Sept shipments which is currently picked up by only Indian value added processors and other importing countries still feel the prices of ASTA pepper will drop to usd 3000 pmt
We are seeing a continued fall in Indian pepper futures and this is likely to continue as the holders are the ones who dont require a gram of pepper for their home use and the sellers are mainly hedgers who has pepper in their own warehouse or in dematted stocks of National Exchanges. Unless and until Indian pepper prices come to export parity exporters are not likely to participate and extend their hand to the falling prices in Indian pepper futures which is currently heading to Indian rupees 142/kg in the second week of May 2010 when the conttracts near for its maturity according to some major analysts
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Might pepper prices reach U$D 4,000 level again ?
Two weeks ago, around 12 April, the market semed to stop its upward path.
For around 5days the prices slided back giving an impression that international
buyers were right in their very cautious policy of wait-and-watch and buying
small and quietly just for immediate needs. However that "pit-stop" was short.
From monday 19 the uprise resumed with an ever growing strengh.
In Brazil prices rose an average of 25-50 dollars per ton per day during the last couple of days.
Are there fundamentals to support such behavior ?
It has been reported since last year that India´s crop will be barely suficient
to local needs: around 50 Kton crop for around 50 Kton local consumption.
Nevertheless India is still an exporter and bear a tradition in some markets
which allows higher prices. In February alone exports were reported at 1,500 mt.
Therefore India is an Importer this year.
Vietnam previewed a strong drop in 2010 production which is said to be
no more than 100,000 ton this year.
Presumably no carryover stocks or very limited from 2009 when exports reached a record of 130,000 ton.
However high export volumes are reported for every month and some anailst estimate that
possibly some 35,000 tons were shipped already.
Vietnamese growers sensed the taste of blood and begun to hold their produce expecting further rise in prices, at a point that some delays/defaults are being reported.
The misterious Indonesia is said to have no more than 10,000 ton left until the
new crop.
Brazil is confirming a very limited availability and drop / delay in his harvest.
Further, as traditional supplier to USA, Brazil may fulfill the american needs
for ASTA grade as no salmonela was reported from this origin.
Time Frame Factor
USA is having trouble with FDA due to recent salmonela issues which is bringing
some thightness and urgency to the market, especially if the importers were
buying cautiosly expecting prices to correct /adjust (drop).
And last but not the less important - the Ramadan hollyday - which is peak of
pepper consumption will start this year before the Indonesian and Brazilian
crops. All these factors put toghether may create a "hole" in the supply
sky-rocketing the pepper prices.
A good deal for speculators who quietly keep some stocks for that moment (if any...)
Editor Peppertrade
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Will the rally in Pepper continue further?
Sham Nair
New Delhi March 28 2010
The current rally which began on 16th March which moved prices up by 20% in all origins have not helped mother India in the export front in capitalising the exports of indian origin Malabar Black Pepper and in fact its going to cause threat in the coming days when the import lobbys pepper hit the shores of cochin which it has bought from Indonesia , Sri Lanka and Vietnam which according to our sources is some thing close to 3000 mt which is al time record high as far as imports are concerned.
Indian malabar asta pepper prices were ruling at usd 2900 - 2950 fob cochin when Srilankan 525 gl peper was offered to cochin at usd 2425 pmt
Indonesian asta pepper was offered usd 2700- 2750 fob Panjang and Vietnam asta pepper pieces were hovering around usd 2575 to 2625 pmt fob Hcmc The current rally has pushed up Indian mg 1 prices to usd 3425 - 3475 pmt where as Indonesian asta prices are still usd 3175 fob Panjang offered on friday and unsold and Brazilian asata usd 3000 fob offered and unsold and Vietnam asta offered usd 3125- 3175 offered and unsold in Newyork market besides srilankan pepper 525 gl offered at usd 2900 cnf cochin offered and unsold on friday which clearly shows the markets are pausing and with long christaian and jewish holidays in the coming two weeks will make markets calmer and quiet. With only 35% harvest of new crop over in Vietnam and still a lot has to hit the market can Vietnam farmers hold back the entire crop and dictate prices is to be seen or other origins will capitalise and take the sales in their books has to be seen.
The sales activities of Indonesia since last year is creating some sort of doubts in the minds of major players wheher Indonesia is a bigger producer of pepper than the publicised Vietnam. As from Idonesia although being the headquarters of International pepper community.all informations about actual crop size, carry over, exports. imports from Vietnam and India everything is kept as a secret which has made the IPC a laughing stock in recent times.
Many buyers need to buy in europe and usa as the sharp increase of 20% has caught them on the wrong foot so a drastic drop in prices are ruled out but a correction is expected before the next rally
New Delhi March 28 2010
The current rally which began on 16th March which moved prices up by 20% in all origins have not helped mother India in the export front in capitalising the exports of indian origin Malabar Black Pepper and in fact its going to cause threat in the coming days when the import lobbys pepper hit the shores of cochin which it has bought from Indonesia , Sri Lanka and Vietnam which according to our sources is some thing close to 3000 mt which is al time record high as far as imports are concerned.
Indian malabar asta pepper prices were ruling at usd 2900 - 2950 fob cochin when Srilankan 525 gl peper was offered to cochin at usd 2425 pmt
Indonesian asta pepper was offered usd 2700- 2750 fob Panjang and Vietnam asta pepper pieces were hovering around usd 2575 to 2625 pmt fob Hcmc The current rally has pushed up Indian mg 1 prices to usd 3425 - 3475 pmt where as Indonesian asta prices are still usd 3175 fob Panjang offered on friday and unsold and Brazilian asata usd 3000 fob offered and unsold and Vietnam asta offered usd 3125- 3175 offered and unsold in Newyork market besides srilankan pepper 525 gl offered at usd 2900 cnf cochin offered and unsold on friday which clearly shows the markets are pausing and with long christaian and jewish holidays in the coming two weeks will make markets calmer and quiet. With only 35% harvest of new crop over in Vietnam and still a lot has to hit the market can Vietnam farmers hold back the entire crop and dictate prices is to be seen or other origins will capitalise and take the sales in their books has to be seen.
The sales activities of Indonesia since last year is creating some sort of doubts in the minds of major players wheher Indonesia is a bigger producer of pepper than the publicised Vietnam. As from Idonesia although being the headquarters of International pepper community.all informations about actual crop size, carry over, exports. imports from Vietnam and India everything is kept as a secret which has made the IPC a laughing stock in recent times.
Many buyers need to buy in europe and usa as the sharp increase of 20% has caught them on the wrong foot so a drastic drop in prices are ruled out but a correction is expected before the next rally
Jupiter Commodities from USA published areport on March 26
Jupiter Commodities from USA published areport on March 26
Black Pepper has continued on the upturn during the week.
The Vietnamese farmers have continued to hold back newcrop arrivals. As prices increased in Vietnam, so did India/Indonesia and Brasil.
Vietnamese traders tried buying aggressively in Vietnam combined with some European and MidEast buying has push levels up and made farmers very wary of selling. Obviously, the buying interest from consuming countries showed up on the doorsteps of the other origins. The activities in all corners, is based on need and not on manipulations.
We feel that the firmer and increasing market shall remain at least through next month provided that buyers remain interested.
We believe that buying shall continue.
This week we saw an average of a 10% increase across the board. Spot USA market remains thin with fresh arrivals/releases being picked up. With the next 2 week holiday schedule it will be interesting see how well the market shall behave itself. White pepper firmer in concert with black but as far as activities are concerned remained lack luster.
Black Pepper has continued on the upturn during the week.
The Vietnamese farmers have continued to hold back newcrop arrivals. As prices increased in Vietnam, so did India/Indonesia and Brasil.
Vietnamese traders tried buying aggressively in Vietnam combined with some European and MidEast buying has push levels up and made farmers very wary of selling. Obviously, the buying interest from consuming countries showed up on the doorsteps of the other origins. The activities in all corners, is based on need and not on manipulations.
We feel that the firmer and increasing market shall remain at least through next month provided that buyers remain interested.
We believe that buying shall continue.
This week we saw an average of a 10% increase across the board. Spot USA market remains thin with fresh arrivals/releases being picked up. With the next 2 week holiday schedule it will be interesting see how well the market shall behave itself. White pepper firmer in concert with black but as far as activities are concerned remained lack luster.
Thursday, March 25, 2010
India Today, March 25,2010
Dear Sirs,
Pepper zooms up on speculation and reports of spot pepper buying by exporters. Prices on future deliveries close at its 4 % limits up. Spot pepper finds buyers at higher levels than yday and sensing this, the shorts on futures came forward to cover which imparted the momentum for prices to move upwards. Traders continue to remain in a 'disbelief' kind of a state with this kind of a move. Last 10 days saw markets moving up by about 15 to 17 % on spot and futures.
Higher advises from Vietnam were like fuel to the fire. Market tone at the end of the day is very very firm.
Indian MG I ASTA grade parity at $ 3300 / 3350 PMT FOB Cochin
From www.peppertrade.com.br
Pepper zooms up on speculation and reports of spot pepper buying by exporters. Prices on future deliveries close at its 4 % limits up. Spot pepper finds buyers at higher levels than yday and sensing this, the shorts on futures came forward to cover which imparted the momentum for prices to move upwards. Traders continue to remain in a 'disbelief' kind of a state with this kind of a move. Last 10 days saw markets moving up by about 15 to 17 % on spot and futures.
Higher advises from Vietnam were like fuel to the fire. Market tone at the end of the day is very very firm.
Indian MG I ASTA grade parity at $ 3300 / 3350 PMT FOB Cochin
From www.peppertrade.com.br
India continues to be 3rd largest buyer of Vietnam pepper in March also
New Delhi 25 March 2010
India the largest consumer of pepper as a producing origin somewhere between 40,000 and 50000 mt with an average production of 45000 - 50000 mt annually continue to be the 3rd largest importer of pepper from Vietnam in the first half of march 2010 with 604 mt already destined for India according to the export statistics released in Hochiminh City.
These imports are besides the ones from Indonesia and Sri Lanka which clearly shows that indian origin black pepper exports are becoming thinner and thinner day by day which on one hand is very good as the country shouldnt end up importing pepper for home consumption but on the hand the cochin pepper mafia will continue to sow the fear psychosis weeds on local traders and farmers scaring with them the news of imported pepper flowing freely anywhere in the country.
United States of America stood first with 1050 mt followed by Germany 1046 mt in the first half of march with regard to imports from vietnam which clearly shows the two major importing countries continued requirement of black pepper.
Reports emanating from Vietnam says that India will go to the No 1 spot in the month of April as two arms of multinational companies who are having processing facilities in india have picked up 1000 mt for shipment in March and will be reaching the indian shores by mid april. Now that India has become outpriced in the indian market heavily the usual delivery pickers from the national exchange might abstain from deliveries which can create some pressure towards maturity of April contract.
If the indian speculators continue to keep the future delivery prices at a premium the imports of pepper into the country will create a new record in 2010.
Sham Nair
India the largest consumer of pepper as a producing origin somewhere between 40,000 and 50000 mt with an average production of 45000 - 50000 mt annually continue to be the 3rd largest importer of pepper from Vietnam in the first half of march 2010 with 604 mt already destined for India according to the export statistics released in Hochiminh City.
These imports are besides the ones from Indonesia and Sri Lanka which clearly shows that indian origin black pepper exports are becoming thinner and thinner day by day which on one hand is very good as the country shouldnt end up importing pepper for home consumption but on the hand the cochin pepper mafia will continue to sow the fear psychosis weeds on local traders and farmers scaring with them the news of imported pepper flowing freely anywhere in the country.
United States of America stood first with 1050 mt followed by Germany 1046 mt in the first half of march with regard to imports from vietnam which clearly shows the two major importing countries continued requirement of black pepper.
Reports emanating from Vietnam says that India will go to the No 1 spot in the month of April as two arms of multinational companies who are having processing facilities in india have picked up 1000 mt for shipment in March and will be reaching the indian shores by mid april. Now that India has become outpriced in the indian market heavily the usual delivery pickers from the national exchange might abstain from deliveries which can create some pressure towards maturity of April contract.
If the indian speculators continue to keep the future delivery prices at a premium the imports of pepper into the country will create a new record in 2010.
Sham Nair
Saturday, March 13, 2010
REF: Vietnam is ruling the 2010 World Pepper Market
Dear Mr Editor
Pertaining to the article below would like to make some comments and would request your goodselves to start a discussion forum from pepper lovers and manipulators and speculators why not all stakeholders of the industry.
I think everyone will agree that Vietnam holds the Key of International pricing of Black pepper whether Indonesia and Brazil still trying to compete them with insignificant quantities or indian exchanges play reverse games showing their muscle and money power.
If the VPA managers really orchestrate a clear sales policy Vietnamese farmers and exporters are going to fetch a fantastic return of their produce in 2010. With our sources reporting from Daklak that this year since there is virtually no carry over stocks and most stocks in the hands of farmers unlike previous years when exporters were also holding carryover stocks big arrivals in certain days use to influence the market which resulted in panic selling.
This year such a scenario is not seen and the western world will have to pay the price of the Vietnamese farmers for their pepper if they want it. Indian harvest where almost 50% is over the farmers have harvested and dried it and kept in store and not willing to discuss current prices for any sales activities.
The Hindu Business Line reports out of 7240 mt of pepper exported by Vietnam in the month of January india is the 4th largest importer but quantities and qualities are not mentioned. whether it is bought by oleoresin industries or value addition companies and the respective quantitie are all missing so it is nothing but a fear psychosis treatment for holders of pepper to liquidate by the jewtown based pepper mafia.
When pepper is available at 126 and 127 in rs per kg cannot understand why importers should be importing paying 128 per kg because rupee is strong and its cheap to import. Since the imported pepper has to leave the country in 120 days it does not make this argument good but again an attempt to depress market and corner the commodity.
With regard to EL NINO factor in Brazil so far only your goodselves has brought it up and others seems to not worried and since its your country i am sure that being a seasoned veteran your findings will ultimately prove right.
Best Rgds
Sham Nair
Pertaining to the article below would like to make some comments and would request your goodselves to start a discussion forum from pepper lovers and manipulators and speculators why not all stakeholders of the industry.
I think everyone will agree that Vietnam holds the Key of International pricing of Black pepper whether Indonesia and Brazil still trying to compete them with insignificant quantities or indian exchanges play reverse games showing their muscle and money power.
If the VPA managers really orchestrate a clear sales policy Vietnamese farmers and exporters are going to fetch a fantastic return of their produce in 2010. With our sources reporting from Daklak that this year since there is virtually no carry over stocks and most stocks in the hands of farmers unlike previous years when exporters were also holding carryover stocks big arrivals in certain days use to influence the market which resulted in panic selling.
This year such a scenario is not seen and the western world will have to pay the price of the Vietnamese farmers for their pepper if they want it. Indian harvest where almost 50% is over the farmers have harvested and dried it and kept in store and not willing to discuss current prices for any sales activities.
The Hindu Business Line reports out of 7240 mt of pepper exported by Vietnam in the month of January india is the 4th largest importer but quantities and qualities are not mentioned. whether it is bought by oleoresin industries or value addition companies and the respective quantitie are all missing so it is nothing but a fear psychosis treatment for holders of pepper to liquidate by the jewtown based pepper mafia.
When pepper is available at 126 and 127 in rs per kg cannot understand why importers should be importing paying 128 per kg because rupee is strong and its cheap to import. Since the imported pepper has to leave the country in 120 days it does not make this argument good but again an attempt to depress market and corner the commodity.
With regard to EL NINO factor in Brazil so far only your goodselves has brought it up and others seems to not worried and since its your country i am sure that being a seasoned veteran your findings will ultimately prove right.
Best Rgds
Sham Nair
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