GLOBAL PEPPER OUTLOOK 2021

 

On May 13, 2021 IPC published a report called " GLOBAL PEPPER OUTPUT of which we present the most important points about the close future os this market

 

Global Pepper Export 2017 – 2020

Global pepper export in 2020 recorded slight increase by 2% at 481 KMT only taking into account major exporting countries. Top three exporters were Viet Nam, Brazil and Indonesia with a total share of 89%.

- Viet Nam exported 282 KMT in 2020. Recording 2% dip due to aggressive buying in the end of 2019 as well as the Covid-19 lockdown in 2020.

- Having the most competitive price,Brazil recorded an all time high for pepper export in 2020 with 89 KMT which was a 6% increase.

- Despite the Covid-19 lockdown, Indonesia recorded a 13% increase of export in 2020 at 58 KMT. Second semester of 2020, Indonesia recorded much higher export figures, reaching 64%.



Global Pepper Import 2019 - 2020

Top five importers of pepper in 2020 were United States of America, China, Viet Nam, Germany and India which accumulated to 243 KMT, a drop of 2% as compared to the accumulated import figures of the same 5 countries in 2019.

- United States of America recorded an increase by 3% of the pepper import in 2020 at 86 KMT with around K57 MT came from Viet Nam.

- Following the complete 2-months lockdown in 2020, China recorded a 3% dip in pepper import from Viet Nam at 56 KMT.

- As result of Covid-19 lockdown, Viet Nam import in 2020 recorded an 8% drop to 39 KMT in which around 20 KMT came from Indonesia

- Germany import in 2020 dropped by 4% to 32 KMT in which 14 KMT came from Brazil while another 12 KMT from VietNam.

-  Being the third most affected country by Covid-19, India import of pepper dropped by 7% in 2020 to 27 KMT in which 10 KMT came from Viet Nam.


Long-Term New York Pepper Price

Reaching its all time peak in July 2015, price of pepper has been declining ever since.
The decrease was mainly due to significant increase of supply from Viet Nam and Brazil over the past three years. In the past three, the price has been relatively stable with a slight tendency of decreasing.

Despite the Covid-19 lockdown and the economy shut-in major countries for several months, pepper price started to climb up in the second quarter of 2020 which has continued up to the beginning of 2021

Starting 2020, an increasing trend of pepper price has been apparent, albeit slightly.
On average in the course of 15 month since the beginning of 2020, pepper price increased by 5% for black pepper and 3% for white pepper. Furthermore, pepper prices in March 2021 were reported with an increase by 80% for black pepper and 48% for white pepper as compared with January 2020.

Summary

Fundamentally, we are entering in a phase where supply growth remains negative and demand continues to grow.

Supply growth is negative due to the non-existence of new plantations and falling yield due to poor upkeep.

Farmers/growers may start planting if prices rise to level that may justify planting.

The impact of the additional supply however will come only after 3-4 years from now.

One can expect prices to rise further.

ASTA Online 2021, May 11 – 13, 2021

 

 

 

 

IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT No. 20/21, 10 - 14 May 2021

 

LOCAL MARKET REPORT

As the Moslem around the world celebrates the Eid Fitr Mubarak 1442H amid the global pandemic of the Corona Virus, market this week showed mixed response. Malabar black pepper was reported stable, averaging at USD 5,037 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,345 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 6,021 per Mt. Malaysia black and white peppers were reported with an increase of 1% and 2% respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,333 per Mt for black pepper and USD 5,027 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam farm gate price of black and white pepper were reported with 1% and 2% deficit respectively as co mpared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,651 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,222 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,330 per Mt. China white pepper was traded at an average of USD 6,000 per Mt locally.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REPORT

International market also showed a mixed response as India black pepper was reported stable, averaging at USD 5,309 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,984 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 6,946 per Mt. Malaysia black and white peppers were reported with an increase of 2% and 5% respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,800 per Mt for black pepper and USD 6,500 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was traded at an average of USD 6,200 per Mt.

 

 

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*BRAZILIAN PINK PEPPER SEASON IS SHORT !
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IMPORT OF PEPPER BY TURKEY - IPC MKT REPORTS

 

IMPORT OF PEPPER BY TURKEY

The Republic of Turkey is a country that occupies a unique geographical position, lying partly in Asia and partly in the Europe. Turkey is bordered by Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Turkey actively imports pepper from various pepper producing countries for its domestic consumption.

In 2019, Turkey was reported to have imported a total 6,249 Mt of pepper which 96% or 5,988 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper while 4% or 260 Mt of it was ground pepper. The average import of pepper by Turkey in 2019 was reported to be 521 Mt per month with the highest quantity recorded in May with 828 Mt. The total expenditure of the pepper import by Turkey in 2019 was reported to be as high as USD 11.3 Million, recording an average price of the total pepper imported by Turkey at USD 1,870 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 606 Per Mt for ground pepper.

Year 2020 saw an increasing trend in terms of quantity of pepper imported by Turkey. Turkey was reported to have imported a total of 6,529 Mt which 99% or 6,489 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper and 1% or 40 Mt of it was ground pepper. Thus, recording an increase of 4% when compared to 2019. The average pepper import by Turkey in 2020 was reported at 544 Mt per month which peaked in June with 1,153 Mt. In accordance with increasing in terms of quantity, Turkey\'s expenditure of pepper import was reported with an increase of 8% to a total of USD 12.2 Million. Thus, recording an average price of the total pepper imported by Turkey at USD 1,871 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 3,820 per Mt for ground pepper or relative stable for whole pepper and an increase of USD 3,214 Mt for ground pepper as compared to 2019.

As of February 2021, pepper import by Turkey was reported with an increase of 54% as compared to the same period in 2020, totaling at 1,363 Mt with all of them was whole pepper. The total expenditure of pepper import by Turkey as of February 2021 was reported with an increase by 48% as compared to the same period in 2020, totaling at USD 2.6 Million. Thus, recording an average price of the total pepper imported by Turkey at USD 1,908 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 7,547 per Mt for ground pepper.

The top five countries of origins of Turkey\'s pepper as of February 2021 were reported to be Viet Nam with 674 Mt (an increase of 28% as compared to the same period in 2020), Brazil with 394 Mt (an increase of 36%), Iran with 108 Mt (2020 n.a), India with 86 Mt (an increase of 45 Mt) and Indonesia with 46 Mt (2020 n.a).

 

 

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*BRAZILIAN PINK PEPPER SEASON IS SHORT !
CALL US NOW TO GARANTEE YOUR NEEDS OF GOOD QUALITY LOT !

peppertrade@olcom.com.br

VIETNAM PEPPER MKT UPDATE 10th MAY 2021 – WEEK 19

 

 

 

 

 

Pepper prices last week decreased on 5th & 6^th May due to concerns about the disease situation in many provinces of Vietnam (411 cases per week in 26 provinces - currently Vietnam government still manages very well).

 

Along with that, the export situation slowed down because the freight rate continued to increase and it was difficult to get spaces containers for the US / EU / Canada routes. Currently, raw material is still stuck at collectors/exporters and not circulating smoothly. Therefore, the payment flow from abroad is also later than usual.

 

On the domestic market, the pepper harvest is over the past 2 weeks, farmers prepare to take care of the trees when the rainy season approaches. In addition, coffee prices in the past week with an impressive increase in 5 consecutive weeks, stimulating farmers to sell, which also increased pressure to pay coffee raw materials to small dealers/manufacturing coffee companies. Many manufacturing and exporting companies continue to lack local liquidity due to slow cash flow as well as the pressure to quickly pay raw materials to farmers/agents.

The market demand is still quite good as oversea customers still not covered enough stock yet for Q3 / Q4 shipment. USA / EU / ASIA continuously increase buying volume for the third quarter / fourth quarter delivery but exporters hesitate to offer long position due to global pepper crop was less than in previous years.

 

The long Chinese holiday season ended last week and Ramadan will end in the next 3 days (May 13^th). Therefore, demand is likely to increase even higher in week 19.

 

The USA & many EU countries are gradually moving to a normal. The rapid economic recovery in Europe, China - the world's largest raw material consumer, along with the USA, has boosted demand for many commodities. The S&P GSCI Index, which tracks price movements of 24 raw materials, has risen 26% this year.

However, the COVID-19 epidemic is still complicated in some countries, affecting the consumption, and it is likely that pepper prices in the short term will hardly spike as in the past due to concerns; Covid-19, many countries widen their social gap, the demand for consumption decreases "

 

 

=========================================

*BRAZILIAN PINK PEPPER SEASON IS SHORT !
CALL US NOW TO GARANTEE YOUR NEEDS OF GOOD QUALITY LOT !

peppertrade@olcom.com.br

CHINESE GARLIC - NEW CROP UPDATE

 

 

May 10th 2021

Harvesting of new crop garlic has started in China in the Henan province. Experts in the field tell us that the yield will definitely will be less compared to 2020. Jinxiang county (southwestern Shandong province) will start in some 2 weeks from now.
Also here the yield is foreseen to be lower compared to previous season. With Jinxiang being the main growing area this gives us a good indication of the total crop from China for this year. Prices have firmed up with 5-7% in a week’s time already. Exporters tell us that due to strong local demands they foresee room for further increases of about 20% during the coming weeks/months (abt. us$500.=/mt). The strong Renminbi and high freight rates are additional headaches for importers of (dehydrated) Chinese garlic.
We urge our customers to be in time for covering new crop requirements. Chinese garlic speculators are known for having deep pockets, some reports tell us that they have started building up positions already. 

BRAZILIAN PEPPER UNDER STRICT WATCH IN EU

 

Brazil pepper regulated in the EU

The frequency of import controls for salmonella in black pepper from Brazil (neither crushed nor ground) has been increased from 20% to 50% by Regulation (EU) No 2021/608 with effect from 21 April 2021.

In recital 7 of the Regulation, the EU Commission provides the following justification for increasing the frequency of controls:

“In particular, due to the high frequency of non-compliance with the relevant requirements provided for in Union legislation with respect to contamination by Salmonella detected during official controls performed by Member States in accordance with Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/1793 in 2019 and in the first semester of 2020 and due to the high number of notifications in the RASFF during that period, it is appropriate to increase, from 20 % to 50 %, the frequency of identity and physical checks to be performed on black pepper (Piper nigrum) from Brazil.“

 

 

VIETNAM PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 4th MAY 2021 – WEEK 18

PEPPER;

 

The market opened for the 18th week with the price trend going sideways, the disease situation is still quite serious in many different countries, causing anxiety for the whole market. However, there still sees good demand from different markets such as EU / ASIA / USA and even the Middle East. Consumption demand from China in April was generally low due to the tightening of the disease control border. The border between Cambodia and Vietnam is still closed, so it is forecasted that the pepper from Cambodia will not be transferred to Vietnam / Thailand / China as usual.

 

Currently, the raw material from farmers / collectors has a very fast delivery speed. That's why domestic agents and exporter / manufacturers continue to lack local liquidity. Many processors / exporters facing cash flow issue so domestic market temporary slow last 2 weeks.

 

Ramadan Festival & China national holiday will be finished next few more days, so it is likely that demand will be coming more strongly in the next couple weeks.

 

Ocean Freight kept at high cost and space of container continued tight especially to the USA and Canada.

 

Forecast Vietnam currency is firm / steady against the USD until the end of the second quarter.

 

 

CHECK LAST PRICE INDICATIONS FOR VIETNAM PEPPER, CASSIA, TURMERIC, STARANISE..

https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/05/pepper-cassia-star-anise-turmeric.html