GLOBAL PEPPER OUTLOOK 2021

 

On May 13, 2021 IPC published a report called " GLOBAL PEPPER OUTPUT of which we present the most important points about the close future os this market

 

Global Pepper Export 2017 – 2020

Global pepper export in 2020 recorded slight increase by 2% at 481 KMT only taking into account major exporting countries. Top three exporters were Viet Nam, Brazil and Indonesia with a total share of 89%.

- Viet Nam exported 282 KMT in 2020. Recording 2% dip due to aggressive buying in the end of 2019 as well as the Covid-19 lockdown in 2020.

- Having the most competitive price,Brazil recorded an all time high for pepper export in 2020 with 89 KMT which was a 6% increase.

- Despite the Covid-19 lockdown, Indonesia recorded a 13% increase of export in 2020 at 58 KMT. Second semester of 2020, Indonesia recorded much higher export figures, reaching 64%.



Global Pepper Import 2019 - 2020

Top five importers of pepper in 2020 were United States of America, China, Viet Nam, Germany and India which accumulated to 243 KMT, a drop of 2% as compared to the accumulated import figures of the same 5 countries in 2019.

- United States of America recorded an increase by 3% of the pepper import in 2020 at 86 KMT with around K57 MT came from Viet Nam.

- Following the complete 2-months lockdown in 2020, China recorded a 3% dip in pepper import from Viet Nam at 56 KMT.

- As result of Covid-19 lockdown, Viet Nam import in 2020 recorded an 8% drop to 39 KMT in which around 20 KMT came from Indonesia

- Germany import in 2020 dropped by 4% to 32 KMT in which 14 KMT came from Brazil while another 12 KMT from VietNam.

-  Being the third most affected country by Covid-19, India import of pepper dropped by 7% in 2020 to 27 KMT in which 10 KMT came from Viet Nam.


Long-Term New York Pepper Price

Reaching its all time peak in July 2015, price of pepper has been declining ever since.
The decrease was mainly due to significant increase of supply from Viet Nam and Brazil over the past three years. In the past three, the price has been relatively stable with a slight tendency of decreasing.

Despite the Covid-19 lockdown and the economy shut-in major countries for several months, pepper price started to climb up in the second quarter of 2020 which has continued up to the beginning of 2021

Starting 2020, an increasing trend of pepper price has been apparent, albeit slightly.
On average in the course of 15 month since the beginning of 2020, pepper price increased by 5% for black pepper and 3% for white pepper. Furthermore, pepper prices in March 2021 were reported with an increase by 80% for black pepper and 48% for white pepper as compared with January 2020.

Summary

Fundamentally, we are entering in a phase where supply growth remains negative and demand continues to grow.

Supply growth is negative due to the non-existence of new plantations and falling yield due to poor upkeep.

Farmers/growers may start planting if prices rise to level that may justify planting.

The impact of the additional supply however will come only after 3-4 years from now.

One can expect prices to rise further.

ASTA Online 2021, May 11 – 13, 2021