Black pepper has turned hot in the recent weeks on speculative buying

 

August 8, 2023

The Hindu BusinessLine

Black pepper has turned hot in the recent weeks on speculative buying amidst concerns of delayed crop setting due to the erratic rainfall pattern in the key producing regions of Karnataka and Kerala.

Prices which hovered around the ₹480-500 a kg levels for a long time have increased to ₹ 603 for the ungarbled and ₹623 for the garbled varieties in the Kochi terminal market. However, prices are still short of the record ₹700 per kg witnessed during 2016.

The surge in prices is not seen benefiting growers because of the limited availability as most of them have sold their produce, while some are holding back in anticipation of further increase.

Kishore Shamji, President of India Pepper and Spice Trade Association (IPSTA), said Indian pepper is out-priced in the world market because of the higher prices of $7,700 per tonne, whereas Sri Lankan crop is available at $6,700 and Vietnam at $3,700.

He alleged that a cartel, which is behind hiking the prices of turmeric and cumin, is pushing up pepper prices as well.

Above floor price

The farming community fears that the higher prices in the domestic market might pave the way for more imports from Sri Lanka. Domestic prices are currently ruling above minimum import price of ₹500 per kg. There are also concerns that pepper from Brazil and Vietnam may enter the Indian market via Sri Lanka by paying the 8 per cent duty in view of the surging domestic demand which is estimated at 85,000 tonnes, Shamji said.

“Due to the scarce availability, the pepper imports into the country are likely to rise. If the prices continue to move up, lot of pepper will flow into India from countries such as Vietnam, but the growers will not benefit,” said KK Vishwanath, Convenor of the Consortium of Pepper Growers’ Organisation.

Subdued demand

According to Shamji, the demand for black pepper across overseas markets was subdued especially in China, the US and the UK because of the slowdown. At the same time, the Indian economy is booming with a burgeoning demand especially from masala manufacturers . 

Referring to production, Shamji said the climate change will have an impact on pepper cultivation across producing countries including India which are reporting a lower crop in the current season. For instance, Brazil has brought down production figures this season.

Mahesh Shashidhar, Chairman, Karnataka Planters’ Association, said the erratic rainfall pattern during the pre-monsoon and early part of the monsoon has impacted the flowering of pepper and the crop setting is seen delayed by few weeks.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/pepper-turns-hot-on-speculative-buying-concerns-of-delayed-crop-setting/article67172836.ece

Cambodian Pepper trade hit by global downturn

Van Socheata  20 July 2023 

In the first half of 2023, Cambodian pepper exports, encompassing all varieties, hit about 4,300 tonnes. This reflects a drop of over 31 per cent compared to the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

Ministry spokeswoman Im Rachna attributes the decline to the global economic downturn which has led to a drop in orders for all goods, pepper included.

Market uncertainty, climate change impacting crop yields and quality, and unauthorised exports through Vietnamese and Thai corridors are other contributing factors, she added.

Mak Ny, president of the Cambodian Pepper and Spices Federation (CPSF), noted on July 18 that the decline is linked to the falling market price of pepper despite a normal level of pepper production. This has resulted in some farmers suspending sales and drying the pepper, awaiting a rise in price before selling.

“The challenge isn’t new. The price of pepper dropped post-harvest. As a result, some farmers dried it, anticipating a price increase,” he said.

He added that weather-related challenges have led some farmers to abandon their crops, which could trigger a decline in pepper production this year and the next.

New markets are crucial for Cambodian pepper as it would lure more investors to grow and export pepper to countries beyond Vietnam, he emphasised.

“In ASEAN, Vietnam is a major buyer of Cambodian pepper. However, despite various regional and bilateral free trade agreements, tariff barriers and phytosanitary issues persist,” added Mak Ny.

Nguon Lay, president of the Kampot Pepper Promotion Association, observed that although there’s no official data on pepper exports, he assesses that Kampot pepper exports haven’t fluctuated in the first half, mirroring last year’s trends.

Despite the global crisis, demand for Kampot pepper remains steady, particularly from European buyers.

“Kampot pepper has not encountered significant issues. We have contracts with purchasing companies and export approximately 70 to 80 tonnes annually. The weather did not diminish the quality of the pepper as our farmers are prepared, particularly in managing water supplies in response to climate change,” he said.

However, the high maintenance costs associated with growing Kampot pepper have forced some farmers out of business, reducing the association’s membership from 460 to just over 350 households.

Cambodia exports pepper to a wide range of countries, and pepper is grown in 18 provinces across the nation, including Mondulkiri, Ratanakkiri, Tbong Khmum and Kampot.

https://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/pepper-trade-hit-global-downturn-h1-ministry

Vietnam Pepper mkt update 1st May 2023 – Week 17

 

 

Last week, pepper price continued to increase impressively with an increase of 4.5%. Thus, pepper price in the past 2 weeks has increased by 7.5% from 66,500vnd - 71,500vnd.

The main reason is that Vietnam continues to export large quantities in April (forecast 30,000 tons), bringing the total export volume in 4 months to approximately 107,000 tons. Up to 25-30,000 tons over the same period in 2022.

With crop output forecasted at just over 200,000 tons, while exporting up to 107,000 tons within 4 months, We can see selling pressure from farmers, agents will not be much when there are 8-9 months until the new 2024 harvest.
Despite the relatively gloomy demand from different markets such as the US/ EU/ AFRICA/ ASIA, farmers, dealers and many analysts forecast and expect that pepper prices will have impressive growth momentum in the coming years.

Although the price of pepper has increased in recent years, profits are still not really atractive to farmers  when costs have seriously increased during the past time such as fertilizer costs, harvesting workers, etc.

Therefore, the harvested area of pepper has continuously decreased in the past 3 years and is expected to continue  to decrease when farmers rarely replant pepper but actively develop other fruit trees such as durian, avocado, jackfruit... etc.

Wheather
After the harvest, the weather in Vietnam becomes hot, especially in the key pepper regions of the country such as Daklak, Daknong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria Vung Tau... El nino phenomenon is forecasted to make pepper gardens affected.

A brief sight of the alternate market suppliers

INDIA
Pepper prices in India unchanged in the past week.

SRI LANKA
Pepper prices remained stable.

INDONESIA
The price of Lampung black pepper in Indonesia is almost unchanged. New crop starting to harvest.

BRAZIL
Pepper prices last week tended to increase. Very few raw material are offered for sale in the market.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia's Kuching ASTA black pepper price remained stable.

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PINHEAD
PINHEAD< 1MM SUPER CLEANED  $1.003 
PINHEAD 1.5MM • 2MM CLEANED $1. 227 
PINHEAD 2MM - 2.5MM CLEANED $1.446 
PINHEAD SUPERIOR QUALITY $1.666 

WHOLE PEPPER
VBP 500 G/L FAQ $3.236 
VBP 550 G/L FAQ $3.485 
VBP 500 G/L Double Spiral Cleaned $3.532 
VBP 550 Gil Double Spiral Cleaned $3.595 
VBP 570 G/L Double ASTA $3.658 
White PEPPER 630 G/LASTA $5.006 

STEAM STERlllZED PEPPER
PINHEAD
Steam Sterilized Pinhead < 1MM $1.453 
Steam Sterilized Pinhead 1.5MM - 2MM $1.677 
Steam Sterilized Pinhead Super Quality $2.116 

LIGHT BERRIES PEPPER
Steam Sterilized Black Pepper 250 G/L   $3.429 
Steam Sterilized Black Pepper 350 G/L   $3.523 

STEAM STERILIZED PEPPER
Steam Sterilized Pepper S00G/L   $3.753 
Steam Sterilized Pepper 550G/L    $3.881 
Steam Sterilized Pepper 570G/L   $3.945 
Steam Sterilized White Pepper 630G/L  $5.371 

STEAM STERILIZED PEPPER - EU COMPLIANCE
Steam Sterilized Pepper S00G/L   $3.933 
Steam Sterilized Pepper 550G/L   $4.061 
Steam Sterilized Pepper 570G/L   $4.125 
Steam Sterilized White Pepper 630G/L $5.551 

#2023 pepper crop,#black pepper #pepper price,#April pepper price,#vietnam pepper price

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Important Report - Brazilian Pepper Contracts

Since the middle of November when the rainy season finaly  came to Brazil, bad weather and heavy rains are threatening Pepper production areas disrupting delivery routes and processes causing a big mess in the pepper industru this end of the year.
We post below an advise from one of the most reputable spices operators in Brazil warning clients and explaining the situation.
Our understanding is due the situation, the trend of Brazilan Pepper for next month is upright

                                 State of Paraná, Guaratuba - road to the port of Parangúa

Situation of roads in the State of Espírito Santo

December 5, 2022

After another weekend of heavy rain across the state of Espírito Santo and, particularly, in the pepper growing and processing regions, the situation today is of extreme concern.

In addition to the roads banned last week, now more roads, accesses and bridges are being punished by the heavy rains that devastate the region.

Today some more roads are blocked, with landslides, erosion and affected bridge structures, which makes all vehicle traffic in these regions impossible.

In view of this, we communicate to our customers that all shipments are on standby, since without road clearance, access to the ports of Espírito Santo, Bahia and Rio de Janeiro are closed.

We are in contact with all exporters, carriers and freight forwarders so that we can ship what is possible at this time, however delays will inevitably occur due to the aforementioned situation.
We are still waiting for the positioning of the road bodies and authorities so that we can estimate the time needed for the situation to normalize.

So we ask our customers to be patient and know that we are full time working on this matter and as soon as we have any news, we will inform you immediately.

Best Regards,

Cris Guerreiro

MALAYSIA - Pepper market slows down

 

By JACK WONG

KUCHING: Domestic pepper prices have weakened considerably this year, after 2021’s powerful rally as a result of the spice’s global oversupply.

Other key factors contributing to the pull-back in prices include the Russia-Ukraine war, inflationary pressures and the strong US dollar.

Kuching Grade 1 black pepper slipped to RM13,750 per tonne on Aug 12 from RM17,330 per tonne in December 2021, down by RM3,580 per tonne or more than 20%.

Likewise, Kuching Grade 1 white pepper fell to RM23,850 per tonne from RM26,450 per tonne or by RM2,600 or about 10% during the same period, according to Malaysian Pepper Board’s (MPB) daily published prices.

In 2021, both black and white pepper prices posted impressive gains, soaring by about 90% from RM9,050 per tonne and 65% from RM16,000 per tonne respectively recorded in 2020.

Last year, both the black and white pepper prices climbed to their highest levels in three years since 2018, but were still far way off from their all-time highs of RM30,000 per tonne and RM50,000 per tonne respectively, in 2015.

International Pepper Community (IPC) executive director Firna Azura Ekaputri Marzuki said the current pepper market continues to be bearish, as the world grapples with demand erosion this year due to “deficit changing to surplus” inventory.

Other factors are depreciating currencies because of the strong dollar, inflation and low consumer appetite.

“China has returned to the pepper market but it may not be enough to cheer markets as Brazil and Indonesia are entering harvest season for 2022,” she added in her presentation on “Globalisation and World Pepper Industry 2021/2022” at Universiti Malaysia Sarawak (Unimas) late last month.

Sarawak’s established pepper exporter Nguong Aik (Kuching) Sdn Bhd director William S C Yii said as China, a major pepper consuming country, has not fully re-opened its international borders due to its Covid zero policy, it has resulted in a cut down in imports from major producing and supplying countries like Vietnam.

“Now China is very short of pepper because of a lot of restrictions (in imports). If Vietnam exporters cannot sell to China, they have to sell to other markets, like the United States and Europe and this has affected pepper prices,” Yii told StarBiz.

Vietnam, the world’s number one pepper producer and exporter, was estimated to have exported 261,000 tonnes valued at US$938mil (RM4.17bil) in 2021. This was down 8.5% in volume but up 42% in value from 2020, thanks to strong export prices.

Year-on-year, Vietnam’s average export price of pepper products jumped 53.5% to reach US$3,757 (RM16,697) per tonne in 2021.

Yii said the Russia-Ukraine war, which broke out in February 2022, has affected demand and pepper shipments to the two countries which imported a combined 7,000 tonnes a year previously.

He said the new Indonesian pepper crop, which will come into the market from next month, might be bigger in quantity than that of 2021. This may put pressure on pepper prices as Indonesia is the world’s second largest pepper producer.

The strong US dollar, he added, is another reason for the weak pepper prices as this dampened consumption of the spice.

Late last year, Yii was bullish and had predicted pepper prices to extend their rallies by another 30% in 2022. But the unexpected turn of events as mentioned has largely changed his views on the market outlook.

“The current pepper market is very inactive and extremely quiet. Though cargo containers are now available and the global shipping freight rates have come down from (their historical peaks) last year, these are still high compared to the pre-Covid-19 period,” he said.

Frina expects the global pepper market to stabilise and prices to firm up in November and December.

Concurring with her, Yii said it is normally in the third quarter and towards the end of the year when the global pepper market is more active, with prices on the uptrend.

“If China fully opens up its international borders by then, this may push up pepper prices by 10% to 20%, from current levels. But any price spike will attract sellers,” Yii said.

On Sarawak’s new pepper crop, he said the harvesting season was just over and that it had been a “failure crop”. Yii estimates this year’s small crop production to be 10% to 20% lower, compared to the past two years.

According to MPB, Malaysia produced 31,600 tonnes of pepper in 2021 (2020: 30,804 tonnes), with Sarawak contributing nearly 98% of the country’s total output. In 2021, Malaysia, which ranks fourth among the top five IPC member producers, exported 7,407 tonnes of pepper worth RM153.7mil.

Yii said pepper farmers are hit by soaring imported fertiliser prices, which have doubled from that of 2021.

Fertiliser made up about 70% of farm inputs.

Inadequate fertilising of pepper vines will affect yields.

At current weak prices, Yii said the better-to-do pepper farmers and rich dealers are holding onto their inventories and hoping to sell at higher prices.

By JACK WONG

TAGS / KEYWORDS:

Pepper , Prices , Down ,

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2022/08/15/pepper-market-slows-down

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GLOBAL PEPPER OUTLOOK 2021

 

On May 13, 2021 IPC published a report called " GLOBAL PEPPER OUTPUT of which we present the most important points about the close future os this market

 

Global Pepper Export 2017 – 2020

Global pepper export in 2020 recorded slight increase by 2% at 481 KMT only taking into account major exporting countries. Top three exporters were Viet Nam, Brazil and Indonesia with a total share of 89%.

- Viet Nam exported 282 KMT in 2020. Recording 2% dip due to aggressive buying in the end of 2019 as well as the Covid-19 lockdown in 2020.

- Having the most competitive price,Brazil recorded an all time high for pepper export in 2020 with 89 KMT which was a 6% increase.

- Despite the Covid-19 lockdown, Indonesia recorded a 13% increase of export in 2020 at 58 KMT. Second semester of 2020, Indonesia recorded much higher export figures, reaching 64%.



Global Pepper Import 2019 - 2020

Top five importers of pepper in 2020 were United States of America, China, Viet Nam, Germany and India which accumulated to 243 KMT, a drop of 2% as compared to the accumulated import figures of the same 5 countries in 2019.

- United States of America recorded an increase by 3% of the pepper import in 2020 at 86 KMT with around K57 MT came from Viet Nam.

- Following the complete 2-months lockdown in 2020, China recorded a 3% dip in pepper import from Viet Nam at 56 KMT.

- As result of Covid-19 lockdown, Viet Nam import in 2020 recorded an 8% drop to 39 KMT in which around 20 KMT came from Indonesia

- Germany import in 2020 dropped by 4% to 32 KMT in which 14 KMT came from Brazil while another 12 KMT from VietNam.

-  Being the third most affected country by Covid-19, India import of pepper dropped by 7% in 2020 to 27 KMT in which 10 KMT came from Viet Nam.


Long-Term New York Pepper Price

Reaching its all time peak in July 2015, price of pepper has been declining ever since.
The decrease was mainly due to significant increase of supply from Viet Nam and Brazil over the past three years. In the past three, the price has been relatively stable with a slight tendency of decreasing.

Despite the Covid-19 lockdown and the economy shut-in major countries for several months, pepper price started to climb up in the second quarter of 2020 which has continued up to the beginning of 2021

Starting 2020, an increasing trend of pepper price has been apparent, albeit slightly.
On average in the course of 15 month since the beginning of 2020, pepper price increased by 5% for black pepper and 3% for white pepper. Furthermore, pepper prices in March 2021 were reported with an increase by 80% for black pepper and 48% for white pepper as compared with January 2020.

Summary

Fundamentally, we are entering in a phase where supply growth remains negative and demand continues to grow.

Supply growth is negative due to the non-existence of new plantations and falling yield due to poor upkeep.

Farmers/growers may start planting if prices rise to level that may justify planting.

The impact of the additional supply however will come only after 3-4 years from now.

One can expect prices to rise further.

ASTA Online 2021, May 11 – 13, 2021

 

 

 

 

IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT No. 20/21, 10 - 14 May 2021

 

LOCAL MARKET REPORT

As the Moslem around the world celebrates the Eid Fitr Mubarak 1442H amid the global pandemic of the Corona Virus, market this week showed mixed response. Malabar black pepper was reported stable, averaging at USD 5,037 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,345 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 6,021 per Mt. Malaysia black and white peppers were reported with an increase of 1% and 2% respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,333 per Mt for black pepper and USD 5,027 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam farm gate price of black and white pepper were reported with 1% and 2% deficit respectively as co mpared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,651 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,222 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 3,330 per Mt. China white pepper was traded at an average of USD 6,000 per Mt locally.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REPORT

International market also showed a mixed response as India black pepper was reported stable, averaging at USD 5,309 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,984 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 6,946 per Mt. Malaysia black and white peppers were reported with an increase of 2% and 5% respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,800 per Mt for black pepper and USD 6,500 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was traded at an average of USD 6,200 per Mt.

 

 

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*BRAZILIAN PINK PEPPER SEASON IS SHORT !
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IMPORT OF PEPPER BY TURKEY - IPC MKT REPORTS

 

IMPORT OF PEPPER BY TURKEY

The Republic of Turkey is a country that occupies a unique geographical position, lying partly in Asia and partly in the Europe. Turkey is bordered by Greece, Bulgaria, Georgia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq and Syria. Turkey actively imports pepper from various pepper producing countries for its domestic consumption.

In 2019, Turkey was reported to have imported a total 6,249 Mt of pepper which 96% or 5,988 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper while 4% or 260 Mt of it was ground pepper. The average import of pepper by Turkey in 2019 was reported to be 521 Mt per month with the highest quantity recorded in May with 828 Mt. The total expenditure of the pepper import by Turkey in 2019 was reported to be as high as USD 11.3 Million, recording an average price of the total pepper imported by Turkey at USD 1,870 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 606 Per Mt for ground pepper.

Year 2020 saw an increasing trend in terms of quantity of pepper imported by Turkey. Turkey was reported to have imported a total of 6,529 Mt which 99% or 6,489 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper and 1% or 40 Mt of it was ground pepper. Thus, recording an increase of 4% when compared to 2019. The average pepper import by Turkey in 2020 was reported at 544 Mt per month which peaked in June with 1,153 Mt. In accordance with increasing in terms of quantity, Turkey\'s expenditure of pepper import was reported with an increase of 8% to a total of USD 12.2 Million. Thus, recording an average price of the total pepper imported by Turkey at USD 1,871 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 3,820 per Mt for ground pepper or relative stable for whole pepper and an increase of USD 3,214 Mt for ground pepper as compared to 2019.

As of February 2021, pepper import by Turkey was reported with an increase of 54% as compared to the same period in 2020, totaling at 1,363 Mt with all of them was whole pepper. The total expenditure of pepper import by Turkey as of February 2021 was reported with an increase by 48% as compared to the same period in 2020, totaling at USD 2.6 Million. Thus, recording an average price of the total pepper imported by Turkey at USD 1,908 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 7,547 per Mt for ground pepper.

The top five countries of origins of Turkey\'s pepper as of February 2021 were reported to be Viet Nam with 674 Mt (an increase of 28% as compared to the same period in 2020), Brazil with 394 Mt (an increase of 36%), Iran with 108 Mt (2020 n.a), India with 86 Mt (an increase of 45 Mt) and Indonesia with 46 Mt (2020 n.a).

 

 

=========================================

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VIETNAM PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 4th MAY 2021 – WEEK 18

PEPPER;

 

The market opened for the 18th week with the price trend going sideways, the disease situation is still quite serious in many different countries, causing anxiety for the whole market. However, there still sees good demand from different markets such as EU / ASIA / USA and even the Middle East. Consumption demand from China in April was generally low due to the tightening of the disease control border. The border between Cambodia and Vietnam is still closed, so it is forecasted that the pepper from Cambodia will not be transferred to Vietnam / Thailand / China as usual.

 

Currently, the raw material from farmers / collectors has a very fast delivery speed. That's why domestic agents and exporter / manufacturers continue to lack local liquidity. Many processors / exporters facing cash flow issue so domestic market temporary slow last 2 weeks.

 

Ramadan Festival & China national holiday will be finished next few more days, so it is likely that demand will be coming more strongly in the next couple weeks.

 

Ocean Freight kept at high cost and space of container continued tight especially to the USA and Canada.

 

Forecast Vietnam currency is firm / steady against the USD until the end of the second quarter.

 

 

CHECK LAST PRICE INDICATIONS FOR VIETNAM PEPPER, CASSIA, TURMERIC, STARANISE..

https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/05/pepper-cassia-star-anise-turmeric.html

 

VIETNAM PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 26th APRIL 2021 – WEEK 17

 

 

 

PEPPER

 

According to customs data, exports in the first half of April 2021 reached 15,304 tons of pepper, with a turnover of $ 47.90 million, bringing pepper exports in the first 3.5 months of 2021 to 76,296. tons, turnover of USD 227.94 million, decreased by 21.98% in volume but increased by 7.32% in value over the same period last year.

 

The average export price in the period reached 3,130 USD / ton, up 6.07% compared with the average export price in March 2021. We forecast total quantity export in April will reach 34.000Mts at least and first 4 months 2021 Vietnam will export around 95.000 tons (first 4 months 2020 was 116.764 tons).

 

The pandemic Covid-19 outbreak in many countries of the world is causing the consumption of pepper to drop sharply, forcing the price to drop sharply last 2 weeks.

 

In the fact, the export situation is quite bleak, mainly handling old orders delivered in May. Meanwhile, although the harvest is over, there is no sell pressure from farmer as usual. 

 

In general, Vietnam has completed the 2021 pepper crop. Last week, the weather was favorable for plants to grow in the 2022 crop. Due to the slow demand from other markets such as China, the Middle East, and Europe. Along with that, the disease situation is still very complicated in the two pepper exporting countries as India and Brazil, besides farmers household also need to cover labor and fertilizer costs then this week farmers offer more raw material. The price has fluctuating daily last week with a range of 50 - 100 $ / MT. However, almost immediately the market recovered very quickly because farmers / collectors immediately not offer in bulk when market correction.

 

Let look back at the past 4 months and make a more assessment of Vietnam's crop situation in 2021. We would like to send you the data scenarios that are likely to happened during this year to have a more comprehensive view of the price trend in the coming time.

Section	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3
Carryover (2019 – 2020)	50	40	40
Crop 2021	230	200	170
Total Import 2021	30	30	30
Exported in first 4 months	94,5	94,5	94,5
Domestic consumption	10	10	10
Lost weight in process white pepper	10	10	10
Quantity available next 8 months	195,5	155,5	125,5
Possibility	50% ?	50% ?	0%

 

 

Please note;

 

- The data of inventories of the year before 2019 / 2020 passed through is now in stock of farmers / exporters, processor / agents with very low selling pressure (frozen stock).

 

- Every year, inventories (carryover) are usually kept at origin about 10-15% of the total exported volume.

 

According to the above hypothetical scenarios, the third scenario is unreasonable, although this is the number of many people have given up on the market in order to distort the market and not correct source. The scenario easier will be under 1 & 2. Regardless of any scenarios, pepper production in 2021 is not expected to be as abundant as in previous years and supply pressure took place in February and March as you can see (prices increased by 45% within more than 1 month).

 

 

 

 

CHECK LAST PRICE INDICATIONS FOR VIETNAM PEPPER, CASSIA, TURMERIC, STARANISE...
https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/04/vietnam-price-indication-for-pepper.html

PEPPER HARVESTING SEASON IN VIETNAM 2021

 

 

The Vietnamese pepper market has gone through many emotional levels in just a short month.
Through the collection, we would like to send you some quick highlight about the situation of pepper developments in Vietnam from January 1 to March 31, 2021 as follows:

Producers and exporters do not understand what happened within a month when prices rose hot in the middle of the pepper season.
In the past 10 years, it was only in 2011 that the price situation has evolved like 2021 .
Most think that prices will drop when Vietnam is in the peak season in March and
everybody will focus on preparing for full-year orders.
However, the market has grown so fast that many customers have not been able
to buy their expected inventories.

For the most cautious, cannot imagine the price of pepper can increase 42%in just 1 month.
A lot of questions are asked daily which is the main reason:

As for Farmers
• Lost due to poor crop
• Prefer to storing pepper
• Selling other agriculture product instead of pepper
• Price very attractive to storage

Some factors that stimulated many exporters/domestic agents to buy stocks
• China and Domestic speculators buying very aggressively after Lunar New Year.
• Demand coming from Middle East & India for March - April shipment.
• USA customers are more interesting to cover full-year shipments but processors/exporters hesitate to offer further shipments.
• Several exporters are big short and have been buying raw material in secret in order to ensure shipment on time to the buyers.


The hot price increase and one day the increase and decrease amplitude of 15% stimulated many people to participate in speculation.
The rapid increase in prices caused many exporting companies shortage of raw material and many domestic collectors not performing the deliveries as committed, causing the phenomenon of raw materials not being
delivered to the processor.
Therefore, export volume in the first quarter will also decrease with an expected less than 30-35% compared to the same period in 2020.

Many domestic collectors/speculators did not comply with their commitments, causing a serious shortage of raw materials in many times, which
stimulated prices to skyrocket.
Many factors resonate at the same time that makes farmers /speculators have a strong belief that prices will continue to increase in the coming time so they do
not need to sell large quantities when prices are adjusted down.
Despite has poor crop, the cheerful atmosphere has returned in many pepper plantation.
Many farmers actively harvest because prices have met expectations and help farmers feel secure to take care of better pepper.

You may download the full report by clicking here:

https://ptexim.com.vn/en/news/pepper-harvesting-season-in-viet-nam-2021/
 

 

You may be also interested in:
 

New crop Brazilian Pink Peppercorns
https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/04/brazilian-pink-pepper-new-crop.html

Vietnam Pepper&Spices prices on week 13
https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/04/vietnam-pepper-spices-prices-update-5th.html 

 

 

IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT No. 09/21, 22 - 26 February 2021

 

LOCAL MARKET REPORT

Market this week showed a mixed response with only Indonesia was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,545 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,442 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,424 per Mt for white pepper. The decrease of Indonesia's pepper could be contributed to the weakening of Indonesia Rupiah against the US Dollar (IDR 14,129 @ USD 1), recording a 1% depreciation. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable, averaging at USD 2,492 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,962 per Mt for white pepper. As market resume after T?t Holiday, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 3% and 8% respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,246 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,302 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black p epper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,682 per Mt.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REPORT

International market was also reported with a mixed response as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 2% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,822 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,955 per Mt for black pepper and USD 5,164 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 6%, 6% and 5% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,075 per Mt, USD 3,156 per Mt and USD 4,170 per Mt respectively.

VIETNAM SPICES - A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW - UPDATE 26TH OCT 2020 – WEEK 44

 

 

 

 

1/ PEPPER

 

According to the Vietnam Customs data, in the first 23 days of October, Vietnam exported 15,405 tons of pepper and Vietnam exported approximately 240,000 tons of pepper in the first 10 months of 2020. This is a very impressive figure as the total production of the 2020 crop is predicted from various sources from 230-250,000 tons. Although Vietnam imports from other countries such as Indonesia/Brazil/Cambodia around 24.841 tons, the inventory from the old crops 2 to 3 years ago such as 2018 & 2019 has been gradually reduced. We will not be surprised stock carry forward of this year 2021 are forecasted to plummet and less than so much carryover 2020.

Covid 19 control has been better in many countries that speed up many countries to increase production while inventories almost tight. Therefore, many different countries to increase their purchase order starting from the 4th quarter to supplement production in 2021. This has resulted in many spices items having very impressive price increases such as;

- Pepper; increased by 10% within 1 week from October 16-25

- Cassia/Cinnamon; 10% price increase within 1 day from last week

- Star Anise has achieved a historic increase in 60% within 1 month.

In addition, an increase in the consumption of convenience foods such as snacks, soups, sandwiches, and frozen products are expected to a surge in demand in the global spice market in the coming years.

China import pepper in the third quarter was only 4,131 tons, around 34.9% compare with the first quarter and only 17.0% compare with the second quarter. Total import in 9 months was 40,305 tons of pepper. Therefore, China has started to increase the quantity of purchases for the fourth quarter, which has significantly contributed to the hot rise in pepper prices last time. Otherwise, in the key pepper areas of Vietnam, it is forecasted that output will drop sharply in 2021 due to the heavy effects of climate change such as storms, floods, and limited care from the farmer. That's contributed to stabilizing pepper prices and have less opportunity to decrease the prices in the medium term.

 

 

Other highlights last week;

 

The Malaysian Pepper Commission (MPB) predicts that the pepper production in 2020 will decrease by 20% and reached only 30,000 tons. The reason is due to poor storage of pepper on the farm as well as farmers less take care for the pepper plantation when pepper prices are low.

Export data first 9 months of 2020;

 

- Asia imported 50.7% Vietnam pepper and continues to be the largest pepper importer of Vietnam, but decreased 5.0% over the same period. The leading importer is China with an import volume of 40,305 tons, down 25.1% over the same period; India imported 10,760 tons, down 37.9%; Saudi Arabia imported 9,989 tons, up 14.0%; Pakistan imported 8,566 tons, down by 4.0%...

 

- European imports ranked second, up 1.1%, and roughly for 20.9% of the total export volume of Vietnam Pepper. Leading by Germany imported 8,645 tons, down 5.3%; The Netherlands imported 5,873 tons, down 9.3%; Russia imported 4,606 tons, up 10.2%; The UK imported 4,241 tons, up 20.9%. France imported 3,153 tons, up 41.8%; Poland imported 2,642 tons, up 25.5%...

 

- The third-largest importer around 20.8% in Latin America and increased by 3.0% over the same period. Of which the United States is the largest pepper import from Vietnam, imported 42,040 tons, up 8.3% over the same period and roughly for 90.9% of the Latin America market share. Canada imported 2,063 tons and increased 0.8% over the same period last year.

 

- African imports around 7.7% and increased by 1.0% over the same period last year. The main is Egypt, which imported 7,627 tons, up 26.5%. Imports decreased in South Africa and Senegal with a decrease in 15.3% and 17.2% respectively.

The 3 largest pepper importing countries of Vietnam are the US, China, and India with the total import volume of 93,105 tons occupying 42% of the total export volume of Vietnam Pepper.

 

 

No	Market	9 MONTHS 2018	9 MONTHS 2019	9 MONTHS 2020
1	ASIA	52,9%	55,7%	50,7%
2	EU	19,8%	19,8%	20,9%
3	Latin America	19,2%	17,8%	20,8%
4	Africa	8,0%	6,7%	7,7%
Total		100%	100%	100%

 

 

2/ CASSIA

 

Prices up during the past 2 weeks such as;
- 10% for cassia broken within 1 or 2 days from last week
- 16% for cassia split last 2 weeks
- 9% for cassia cigarette/sticks.

Prices increased rapidly due to a shortage of supplies from China/Indo… while Vietnam's crop output was not as expected. Harvesting is also very difficult due to the heavy rain and storms/tropical depression. Demand continues to increase from USA/EU/… has made Cassia prices are forecasted to continue to increase in the near future.

 

 

3/ STAR ANISED

 

Huge demand from different countries such as USA/EU/China has made the price of anise rose dramatically with an increase of 50 - 65% in just 1 month. Prices are currently high and there is no chance of a decrease in the short term.



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