VIETNAM PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 4th MAY 2021 – WEEK 18

PEPPER;

 

The market opened for the 18th week with the price trend going sideways, the disease situation is still quite serious in many different countries, causing anxiety for the whole market. However, there still sees good demand from different markets such as EU / ASIA / USA and even the Middle East. Consumption demand from China in April was generally low due to the tightening of the disease control border. The border between Cambodia and Vietnam is still closed, so it is forecasted that the pepper from Cambodia will not be transferred to Vietnam / Thailand / China as usual.

 

Currently, the raw material from farmers / collectors has a very fast delivery speed. That's why domestic agents and exporter / manufacturers continue to lack local liquidity. Many processors / exporters facing cash flow issue so domestic market temporary slow last 2 weeks.

 

Ramadan Festival & China national holiday will be finished next few more days, so it is likely that demand will be coming more strongly in the next couple weeks.

 

Ocean Freight kept at high cost and space of container continued tight especially to the USA and Canada.

 

Forecast Vietnam currency is firm / steady against the USD until the end of the second quarter.

 

 

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VIETNAM PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 26th APRIL 2021 – WEEK 17

 

 

 

PEPPER

 

According to customs data, exports in the first half of April 2021 reached 15,304 tons of pepper, with a turnover of $ 47.90 million, bringing pepper exports in the first 3.5 months of 2021 to 76,296. tons, turnover of USD 227.94 million, decreased by 21.98% in volume but increased by 7.32% in value over the same period last year.

 

The average export price in the period reached 3,130 USD / ton, up 6.07% compared with the average export price in March 2021. We forecast total quantity export in April will reach 34.000Mts at least and first 4 months 2021 Vietnam will export around 95.000 tons (first 4 months 2020 was 116.764 tons).

 

The pandemic Covid-19 outbreak in many countries of the world is causing the consumption of pepper to drop sharply, forcing the price to drop sharply last 2 weeks.

 

In the fact, the export situation is quite bleak, mainly handling old orders delivered in May. Meanwhile, although the harvest is over, there is no sell pressure from farmer as usual. 

 

In general, Vietnam has completed the 2021 pepper crop. Last week, the weather was favorable for plants to grow in the 2022 crop. Due to the slow demand from other markets such as China, the Middle East, and Europe. Along with that, the disease situation is still very complicated in the two pepper exporting countries as India and Brazil, besides farmers household also need to cover labor and fertilizer costs then this week farmers offer more raw material. The price has fluctuating daily last week with a range of 50 - 100 $ / MT. However, almost immediately the market recovered very quickly because farmers / collectors immediately not offer in bulk when market correction.

 

Let look back at the past 4 months and make a more assessment of Vietnam's crop situation in 2021. We would like to send you the data scenarios that are likely to happened during this year to have a more comprehensive view of the price trend in the coming time.

Section	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3
Carryover (2019 – 2020)	50	40	40
Crop 2021	230	200	170
Total Import 2021	30	30	30
Exported in first 4 months	94,5	94,5	94,5
Domestic consumption	10	10	10
Lost weight in process white pepper	10	10	10
Quantity available next 8 months	195,5	155,5	125,5
Possibility	50% ?	50% ?	0%

 

 

Please note;

 

- The data of inventories of the year before 2019 / 2020 passed through is now in stock of farmers / exporters, processor / agents with very low selling pressure (frozen stock).

 

- Every year, inventories (carryover) are usually kept at origin about 10-15% of the total exported volume.

 

According to the above hypothetical scenarios, the third scenario is unreasonable, although this is the number of many people have given up on the market in order to distort the market and not correct source. The scenario easier will be under 1 & 2. Regardless of any scenarios, pepper production in 2021 is not expected to be as abundant as in previous years and supply pressure took place in February and March as you can see (prices increased by 45% within more than 1 month).

 

 

 

 

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PEPPER HARVESTING SEASON IN VIETNAM 2021

 

 

The Vietnamese pepper market has gone through many emotional levels in just a short month.
Through the collection, we would like to send you some quick highlight about the situation of pepper developments in Vietnam from January 1 to March 31, 2021 as follows:

Producers and exporters do not understand what happened within a month when prices rose hot in the middle of the pepper season.
In the past 10 years, it was only in 2011 that the price situation has evolved like 2021 .
Most think that prices will drop when Vietnam is in the peak season in March and
everybody will focus on preparing for full-year orders.
However, the market has grown so fast that many customers have not been able
to buy their expected inventories.

For the most cautious, cannot imagine the price of pepper can increase 42%in just 1 month.
A lot of questions are asked daily which is the main reason:

As for Farmers
• Lost due to poor crop
• Prefer to storing pepper
• Selling other agriculture product instead of pepper
• Price very attractive to storage

Some factors that stimulated many exporters/domestic agents to buy stocks
• China and Domestic speculators buying very aggressively after Lunar New Year.
• Demand coming from Middle East & India for March - April shipment.
• USA customers are more interesting to cover full-year shipments but processors/exporters hesitate to offer further shipments.
• Several exporters are big short and have been buying raw material in secret in order to ensure shipment on time to the buyers.


The hot price increase and one day the increase and decrease amplitude of 15% stimulated many people to participate in speculation.
The rapid increase in prices caused many exporting companies shortage of raw material and many domestic collectors not performing the deliveries as committed, causing the phenomenon of raw materials not being
delivered to the processor.
Therefore, export volume in the first quarter will also decrease with an expected less than 30-35% compared to the same period in 2020.

Many domestic collectors/speculators did not comply with their commitments, causing a serious shortage of raw materials in many times, which
stimulated prices to skyrocket.
Many factors resonate at the same time that makes farmers /speculators have a strong belief that prices will continue to increase in the coming time so they do
not need to sell large quantities when prices are adjusted down.
Despite has poor crop, the cheerful atmosphere has returned in many pepper plantation.
Many farmers actively harvest because prices have met expectations and help farmers feel secure to take care of better pepper.

You may download the full report by clicking here:

https://ptexim.com.vn/en/news/pepper-harvesting-season-in-viet-nam-2021/
 

 

You may be also interested in:
 

New crop Brazilian Pink Peppercorns
https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/04/brazilian-pink-pepper-new-crop.html

Vietnam Pepper&Spices prices on week 13
https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/04/vietnam-pepper-spices-prices-update-5th.html 

 

 

VIETNAM SPICES MARKET UPDATE 11TH JAN 2021 – WEEK 1&2

 

PEPPER 

Pepper exports in December 2020 reached 23 thousand tons, worth 62 million USD, up 0.3% in volume and 2.5% in value compared to November.

Approximately pepper export in 2020 is estimated at 288 thousand tons, worth 665 million USD, up 1.2% in volume. The average export price is estimated at 2,313 USD/ton, down 7.9% compared to 2019.

Pepper prices from the first week of 2021 are being affected by the news of the Covid-19 epidemic and trade tensions between major countries.

Due to the closure of the countries due to Covid-19 and the political situation in the US and UK, the strained US-China relations affected goods greatly.

At this time, the low price caused speculators to increase buying, but the transaction was still quite bleak.

Vietnam's pepper prices in the short term will be quiet in the absence of supportive factors. The main reason for the recent price drop is the tension situation of the shipping charges and the shortage of containers. Many routes to EU/AFRICA/USA… increased galloping with an increase of 500-7,000 $ per container of export cargo. There is a 1000% increase in just 30 days with some destination in ASIA. This situation may continue, causing the fact that pepper produced in Vietnam cannot be exported much to other countries. Materials are clogged in production warehouses and at ports of destination because some shipping agents cancelled booking/increase price without reason.

Besides, the present time the key pepper province of Vietnam is Daknong province has starting the harvest season, so the export price of pepper lacks a supporting factor.

However, price of pepper at spot market up daily and many customer shortage stock to process because almost all waiting reduce for cost freight. We might be seen huge demand will come again in the market when freight/container space back to normal.

In the medium term, global pepper production will continue to decline as top producing countries do not implement new planting, while the maintenance of existing pepper farms is not focused, many pepper farmers are not growing also focus on profession because the price now not attractive to the farmer. If this situation continues in the next years, the price of pepper will tend to increase in 2021 & 2022.

The exchange rate of Vietnam currency in 2021 is forecast to be about 2% stronger than USD, which will also an increase price in exports from Vietnam compared to previous years.

 

India
India's pepper production in 2021 is likely to be significantly lower than in 2020, The reason is that the cultivation and production of pepper is affected by erratic climate, typically strong winds and heavy rain in Idukki, Wayanad, Coorg districts and some areas in Karnataka state. Currently, the new harvest on the farms is coming. However, many farmers are delaying the harvesting process due to unfavorable weather.

CASSIA 
The market continues to grow strongly when demand is high but inventories have decreased rapidly. Raw material prices are forecasted to continue to rise as demand is high from the EU/USA and ASIA.

 

STAR ANISE

The market increased rapidly due to strong demand, in addition to a serious crop failure in spring due to storms and droughts. It is expected that the price of anise will continue to increase in 2021 while there is very little inventory.

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