Pepper Vietnam: First sight of 2024 trend - UP !

 

Pepper price and export volume increase in the last month sug­gests a potential shortage of sup­ply.

.
The first glance at the 23/24 crop in Vietnam suggest a 10-15°/o smaller yield

Pepper prices continued to rocket over the past few weeks on speculation that new harvest yield will stumble.

Experts say that the source of goods for export is running out, along with forecasts of crop failure, pushing up pepper prices recently. Along with that, the weakening USD helps pepper prices increase.

Inventory and crop

As per our investigation in the pepper supply in Vietnam, one of the world's largest producers, it is dwindling due to low crop yields and reduced farming interest.
The current stock is estimated at only 6,000 to 10,000 tonnes, and the next harvest is expected to be around 140,000 - 150,000 metric tonnes, a significant drop from previous years.
Many farmers have shifted to other crops that offer more frequent and higher income, such as durians.
Other remaining plantation areas consist of many old trees which do not provide good yield. Another factor constituting to the lack of interest in pepper farming is the cost of fertilizers and labour.

Not only Vietnam but also the output of many pepper growing countries such as India and Brazil is forecast to be unfavorable due to the impact of the bad weather El Nino.
Meanwhile, in the first quarter of 2024, purchases from Western countries may accumulate at the same time due to depleted inventories. This will help push domestic pepper prices to continue to increase.


Export

According to preliminary statistics of VPA, in No­ vember 2023, Vietnam exported 20,273 tons, an in­ crease of 5.6% compared to October. In which, black pepper reached 17,641 tons, white pepper reached 2,545 tons. Total export turnover reached 78.1 mil- lion USD, black pepper reached 64.9 million USD, white pepper reached 12.8 million USD

Progressively from January 1, 2023 to November 30, 2023, Vietnam has exported 243,851 tons of pepper of all kinds, of which black pepper reached 218,299 tons, white pepper reached 25,552 tons. Total export turnover reached 828.9 million USD, black pepper reached 705.4 million USD, white pepper reached 123.5 million USD. Compared to the same period last year, export volume increased by 14.6%, but export turnover decreased by 11.7%. The average export price of black pepper in 11 months reached 3,571 USD/ton, white pepper reached 5,081 USD/ton.

The main export markets of Vietnam Pepper include China: 59,073 tons, accounting for 24.2%; United States: 48,059 tons, accounting for 19.7%; India: 11,801 tons, accounting for 4.8%; UAE: 10,861 tons, accounting for 4.5% and Germany: 8,448 tons, accounting for 3.5%. Main white pepper export markets are United States: 3,433 tons, Germany: 3,117 tons, China: 2,796 tons, Netherlands: 2,379 tons and Thailand: 2,153 tons.

Pepper Market Report Week 44 – 2023

 

As market struggles to find support overseas, Vietnam was reportedly seen with a decline last week by 1,4% for raw material. However, over the weekend, China reappears prompting market to firm up a bit at today’s opening. Exporters remain on a sideline as USA and EU demands are still elusive for spot coverings as most seems to be eyeing now for new crop next year.

Indonesia – speculators last week are in a market to sell as prices also are seen softening a bit with depreciating local currency that has been beaten by negative sentiments since last month. But then Muntok stock position is not that promising, with a volume that could be just good enough for local consumption. 

Brazil although price is supportive compared to others, origin’s current state is not sitting well. The country is now in midst of experiencing severe drought in history due to lack of rain. It is much worser in Amazonas as its port Manaus had dried the water to even allow ships to dock. Para’s crop reporting crop failure and although ES is still surviving, the domino effect of the whole situation very soon can cause more shipment delays and cancellation which these days has been a dilemma by almost all exporters. 

Royal Golden Trading, Dubai

Brazil Pepper Pricing Overview

 

Brazil still seen stable over the past few weeks with local currency that is under depreciation pressure over US dollars Brazil's real BRL, fell between 0.3% and 0.7%. Though in a good note, exporters’ woes with the rising production and shipping cost for Pepper could balance out the market pricing. 

Brazil Pepper Plant Production
Espírito Santo as the epicenter of pepper production reportedly seen with plants dying due to weather condition with the degree of the damage that is still unknown. On the other hand, Pará harvest reportedly plummeted by about 20%, due to high temperatures and lack of rain.

Brazil Pepper September Export
Brazil exported about 7,244 tons of pepper for the month of September, with about 57,652 tons export volume for the first nine (9) months of the year which is 4% lower as compared to last year’s same period covered.

Brazil Pepper Export Destinations
Vietnam still a top importer of Brazil Pepper, managing to import about 11,867 tons from Q1-Q3, down by about 9% compared to last year same period. UAE, top two importer at 5,464 tons, down by about 19% from last year as well.

Germany and USA both import volume dropped down by about 60% and 92% respectively owing to the stricter import regulation due to Salmonella issue.

This report is part of  
RGT Pepper Market Report – October 2023
Royal Golden Trading 2023. All Rights Reserved.

Brazil Pepper Pricing Overview Week 37

 

Plantation in São Mateus, Espirito Santo

Brazil remains stable and firm; expected to slowly
move at upward trend. Still seeing difficulties in 
securing raw material from farmers especially for 
sundried materials. 

Brazil Pepper Crop Situation
Another El Nino induced drought affecting mostly 
Para region with reports of dying plants and crop 
failures reversing the earlier projected good yield. 
Sundried materials are expected to be more limited 
with prices that could further move at an upward 
trend. 

Brazil Pepper August Export 
Brazil managed to export 5,113 tons of pepper for the 
month of August, generating about 50,408 tons for 
the first eight (8) months of the year. The volume is 
lower by a 2% margin only from last year’s export 
volume for same period. 

For the first eight (8) months of this year, the highest 
importer of Brazil Pepper is still Vietnam, able to 
import 9,437 tons, followed by Senegal with 4,820
tons, UAE at 4,789 tons, Morocco at 4,375 tons, India 
at 3,830 tons and Pakistan at 3,484 tons.

RGT Pepper Market Report – Week 37 /2023 
Royal Golden Trading 2023. All Rights Reserved.

The various changes of Brazilian Black Pepper Trade

For the second year in a row Vietnam became the biggest importer of brazilian black pepper, overcoming traditional destinations like USA and also Germany.

USA has been the leading importer of brazilian black pepper since the beginning of the century.

Big changes happened after COVID-19 pandemia and actually during the last 10 years, starting with the production area in Brazil that developed a new very active production zone in the central-east (south of Bahia state and Espirito Santo state).Brazilian exports that were around 30k - 40 k tons per year from 2000 to 2015, rised to 91,000 ton in 2021.

Prices this week range between 3350 -3500 FOB.

The chart below show Brazilian Exports per destination from 2018 to 2023 elaborated by Coreimex. 

Prices this week range between 3350 -3500 FOB

If interested ask for a firm offer  peppertrade@olcom.com.br

Black Pepper - Brazil Pricing Overview

Week 33/2023

Brazil Pepper started at lows of BRL 11/kg for raw about $2550-2750 FOB range beginning this year, heading firm towards Q2 until it reached its expected weak spot beginning Q3 - the harvesting season.
All attention is with Brazil with demand activities mostly from Asian countries.
However, price softening did not last longer as price moves further up at level BRL 14-14,50/kg – an uptrend by about 18% from beginning year, 10% higher from last year same period recorded.

Contrary to pricing movement from last year, Brazil today appears to be siding strongly to an upward trend with reports of difficulties in procuring raw material from farmers not lower than BRL 14,50/kg having more interest to keep their pepper stocks rather than to sell immediately despite earlier reports of a good crop volume this year.

Brazil Pepper April Export Brazil was able to export about 6,158 tons of pepper this July, generating about 45,294 tons for the first seven (7) months of the year which is almost similar volume from last year same period recorded, but 6% higher if compared to same month from last year.

For the first seven (7) months of this year, the highest importer of Brazil Pepper remains to be Vietnam, having an import volume of 8,411 tons, followed by Senegal with 4,793 tons, next is Morocco contributing 4,267 tons, UAE share of 4,171 tons, India with a volume of 3,344 tons, and Pakistan at 3,024 ton.

RGT Pepper Market Report – Week 33 /2023 Royal Golden Trading 2023.
All Rights Reserved. Website: www.royalgoldentrading.com/ Email: Info@royalgoldentrading.co

Black pepper has turned hot in the recent weeks on speculative buying

 

August 8, 2023

The Hindu BusinessLine

Black pepper has turned hot in the recent weeks on speculative buying amidst concerns of delayed crop setting due to the erratic rainfall pattern in the key producing regions of Karnataka and Kerala.

Prices which hovered around the ₹480-500 a kg levels for a long time have increased to ₹ 603 for the ungarbled and ₹623 for the garbled varieties in the Kochi terminal market. However, prices are still short of the record ₹700 per kg witnessed during 2016.

The surge in prices is not seen benefiting growers because of the limited availability as most of them have sold their produce, while some are holding back in anticipation of further increase.

Kishore Shamji, President of India Pepper and Spice Trade Association (IPSTA), said Indian pepper is out-priced in the world market because of the higher prices of $7,700 per tonne, whereas Sri Lankan crop is available at $6,700 and Vietnam at $3,700.

He alleged that a cartel, which is behind hiking the prices of turmeric and cumin, is pushing up pepper prices as well.

Above floor price

The farming community fears that the higher prices in the domestic market might pave the way for more imports from Sri Lanka. Domestic prices are currently ruling above minimum import price of ₹500 per kg. There are also concerns that pepper from Brazil and Vietnam may enter the Indian market via Sri Lanka by paying the 8 per cent duty in view of the surging domestic demand which is estimated at 85,000 tonnes, Shamji said.

“Due to the scarce availability, the pepper imports into the country are likely to rise. If the prices continue to move up, lot of pepper will flow into India from countries such as Vietnam, but the growers will not benefit,” said KK Vishwanath, Convenor of the Consortium of Pepper Growers’ Organisation.

Subdued demand

According to Shamji, the demand for black pepper across overseas markets was subdued especially in China, the US and the UK because of the slowdown. At the same time, the Indian economy is booming with a burgeoning demand especially from masala manufacturers . 

Referring to production, Shamji said the climate change will have an impact on pepper cultivation across producing countries including India which are reporting a lower crop in the current season. For instance, Brazil has brought down production figures this season.

Mahesh Shashidhar, Chairman, Karnataka Planters’ Association, said the erratic rainfall pattern during the pre-monsoon and early part of the monsoon has impacted the flowering of pepper and the crop setting is seen delayed by few weeks.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/pepper-turns-hot-on-speculative-buying-concerns-of-delayed-crop-setting/article67172836.ece

KERALA - Market in stupor as pepper prices rise; Indian variety most expensive

 

Kochi: The price of pepper increased by Rs 30 per kilo within a day. In other words, the price per quintal went up by Rs 3000. 

This sudden and unexpected rise has created a shock in the market. Last week, the price had increased by Rs 20 per kilo

The price of ungarbled pepper is Rs 550 per kilo on Monday while garbled pepper stands at Rs 570 per kilo.  

Traders in Kerala point out the intervention of North Indian lobby as the reason for this price hike. 

They say that this is the same trading lobby that intervened to increase the price of commodities like cumin and turmeric.

Unpredictable weather changes can detrimentally affect production. 

There were campaigns that claimed pepper production would drastically reduce next year. 

This is what prompted masala manufacturing companies to procure and horde large quantities of pepper.

Some prominent companies also invited tenders to meet the chilly requirement for the next few months. 

The lobby has anticipated a demand for pepper in the near future and this intervention led to a rise in prices, traders say.

Kerala farmers continue to maintain a distance from the market. 

Those who have pepper stock in hand are not bringing the goods into the market hoping the prices may increase even more. 

With festival season coming, they anticipate a further rise in price.

Presently, Indian pepper is the most expensive in the International market. 

As per latest records, the price of Indian pepper is at 7,300 dollars per ton. Meanwhile, the price of Brazilian pepper is only 3,500 dollars per ton.

Similarly, the Vietnamese and Indonesian peppers are priced at 3,600 and 2,800 dollars per ton respectively. 

Exports from India have been on the decline for some time now but imports from Brazil and Vietnam are subject to heavy tariffs. However, even after considering this tariff, pepper from other countries have a lower price in the market than Indian pepper. 

The trade community indicates that if prices continue to rise, it will pave the way for imports.

V.P Sreelan 25 July 2023, 12:10 PM IST.

Read more at: https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/money/market-in-stupor-as-pepper-prices-rise-indian-pepper-the-most-expensive-in-international-market-1.8760376

Cambodian Pepper trade hit by global downturn

Van Socheata  20 July 2023 

In the first half of 2023, Cambodian pepper exports, encompassing all varieties, hit about 4,300 tonnes. This reflects a drop of over 31 per cent compared to the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

Ministry spokeswoman Im Rachna attributes the decline to the global economic downturn which has led to a drop in orders for all goods, pepper included.

Market uncertainty, climate change impacting crop yields and quality, and unauthorised exports through Vietnamese and Thai corridors are other contributing factors, she added.

Mak Ny, president of the Cambodian Pepper and Spices Federation (CPSF), noted on July 18 that the decline is linked to the falling market price of pepper despite a normal level of pepper production. This has resulted in some farmers suspending sales and drying the pepper, awaiting a rise in price before selling.

“The challenge isn’t new. The price of pepper dropped post-harvest. As a result, some farmers dried it, anticipating a price increase,” he said.

He added that weather-related challenges have led some farmers to abandon their crops, which could trigger a decline in pepper production this year and the next.

New markets are crucial for Cambodian pepper as it would lure more investors to grow and export pepper to countries beyond Vietnam, he emphasised.

“In ASEAN, Vietnam is a major buyer of Cambodian pepper. However, despite various regional and bilateral free trade agreements, tariff barriers and phytosanitary issues persist,” added Mak Ny.

Nguon Lay, president of the Kampot Pepper Promotion Association, observed that although there’s no official data on pepper exports, he assesses that Kampot pepper exports haven’t fluctuated in the first half, mirroring last year’s trends.

Despite the global crisis, demand for Kampot pepper remains steady, particularly from European buyers.

“Kampot pepper has not encountered significant issues. We have contracts with purchasing companies and export approximately 70 to 80 tonnes annually. The weather did not diminish the quality of the pepper as our farmers are prepared, particularly in managing water supplies in response to climate change,” he said.

However, the high maintenance costs associated with growing Kampot pepper have forced some farmers out of business, reducing the association’s membership from 460 to just over 350 households.

Cambodia exports pepper to a wide range of countries, and pepper is grown in 18 provinces across the nation, including Mondulkiri, Ratanakkiri, Tbong Khmum and Kampot.

https://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/pepper-trade-hit-global-downturn-h1-ministry

Vietnam Pepper mkt update 1st May 2023 – Week 17

 

 

Last week, pepper price continued to increase impressively with an increase of 4.5%. Thus, pepper price in the past 2 weeks has increased by 7.5% from 66,500vnd - 71,500vnd.

The main reason is that Vietnam continues to export large quantities in April (forecast 30,000 tons), bringing the total export volume in 4 months to approximately 107,000 tons. Up to 25-30,000 tons over the same period in 2022.

With crop output forecasted at just over 200,000 tons, while exporting up to 107,000 tons within 4 months, We can see selling pressure from farmers, agents will not be much when there are 8-9 months until the new 2024 harvest.
Despite the relatively gloomy demand from different markets such as the US/ EU/ AFRICA/ ASIA, farmers, dealers and many analysts forecast and expect that pepper prices will have impressive growth momentum in the coming years.

Although the price of pepper has increased in recent years, profits are still not really atractive to farmers  when costs have seriously increased during the past time such as fertilizer costs, harvesting workers, etc.

Therefore, the harvested area of pepper has continuously decreased in the past 3 years and is expected to continue  to decrease when farmers rarely replant pepper but actively develop other fruit trees such as durian, avocado, jackfruit... etc.

Wheather
After the harvest, the weather in Vietnam becomes hot, especially in the key pepper regions of the country such as Daklak, Daknong, Dong Nai, Ba Ria Vung Tau... El nino phenomenon is forecasted to make pepper gardens affected.

A brief sight of the alternate market suppliers

INDIA
Pepper prices in India unchanged in the past week.

SRI LANKA
Pepper prices remained stable.

INDONESIA
The price of Lampung black pepper in Indonesia is almost unchanged. New crop starting to harvest.

BRAZIL
Pepper prices last week tended to increase. Very few raw material are offered for sale in the market.

MALAYSIA
Malaysia's Kuching ASTA black pepper price remained stable.

===================================

PINHEAD
PINHEAD< 1MM SUPER CLEANED  $1.003 
PINHEAD 1.5MM • 2MM CLEANED $1. 227 
PINHEAD 2MM - 2.5MM CLEANED $1.446 
PINHEAD SUPERIOR QUALITY $1.666 

WHOLE PEPPER
VBP 500 G/L FAQ $3.236 
VBP 550 G/L FAQ $3.485 
VBP 500 G/L Double Spiral Cleaned $3.532 
VBP 550 Gil Double Spiral Cleaned $3.595 
VBP 570 G/L Double ASTA $3.658 
White PEPPER 630 G/LASTA $5.006 

STEAM STERlllZED PEPPER
PINHEAD
Steam Sterilized Pinhead < 1MM $1.453 
Steam Sterilized Pinhead 1.5MM - 2MM $1.677 
Steam Sterilized Pinhead Super Quality $2.116 

LIGHT BERRIES PEPPER
Steam Sterilized Black Pepper 250 G/L   $3.429 
Steam Sterilized Black Pepper 350 G/L   $3.523 

STEAM STERILIZED PEPPER
Steam Sterilized Pepper S00G/L   $3.753 
Steam Sterilized Pepper 550G/L    $3.881 
Steam Sterilized Pepper 570G/L   $3.945 
Steam Sterilized White Pepper 630G/L  $5.371 

STEAM STERILIZED PEPPER - EU COMPLIANCE
Steam Sterilized Pepper S00G/L   $3.933 
Steam Sterilized Pepper 550G/L   $4.061 
Steam Sterilized Pepper 570G/L   $4.125 
Steam Sterilized White Pepper 630G/L $5.551 

#2023 pepper crop,#black pepper #pepper price,#April pepper price,#vietnam pepper price

====================================

JUST A REMINDER
PINK PEPPER HARVEST START END OF MAY
BEST QUALITY PRODUCT ARE ALWAYS AT THE BEGINNING.
CALL US IN ORDER TO ASSURE YOURS !

Pepper price in 2023 - UP or DOWN ?

The question of the moment is the Price
All the people involved in spice trading  or even need to know what is this year trend for Pepper.
We just got a report from one of biggest world spice trade players whose point of view may bring some answers.

Market will remain at pricing level for raw material between 62,000-67,000 VND/kg from Q1-Q2 and will slowly move upward into 75,000-80,000 VND/kg by Q3-Q4.

We suspect prices we are seeing this year will be the lowest. Next four (4) years cycle might lean into an upward trend from the current levels.

Pepper price hit a 10% increase in pricing since the beginning of this year. 
Lowest level was seen at 59,000 VND during January month and had crossed over the highs of 69-70,000 VND marked during February month.

Overall, we see indications suggesting bulls having a strong advantage over bears

------------------------

The Bearish Indicators

• Higher interest rates means higher storage cost which tampers buying power.

• Brazil crop news will probably be a decisive moment. If crop is big, it will supply Vietnam and rest of the world.

• Economic situation worldwide is not satisfactory which may reduce imports.

• Various countries encountering devaluation of their currencies and shortage of dollars causing a eduction in imports. 

--------------------------

The Bullish Indicators

• Vietnam had already finished harvesting 80% of its yield and still no hint of selling pressure from farmers’ side.

• The new crop arrival in the warehouses were very limited during the peak arrival season.

• Chinese is actively buying and will remain active until June 2023.

• The first two (2) months of the year, Vietnam have already exported about 42,000 tons. March export is expected to reach about 30,000 tons. By first half of 2023, big volume will be exported, and emaining quantity will be in strong hands.

• Exporters are not keen to offer forward positions.

• Exporters feel that the levels we are seeing now will be the lowest; therefore, not to go short will be an advantage.

• Farmers are holding their pepper goods due to the advantage of coffee and other fruits high prices income.

• Both stock market and real estate property are not doing well, causing most buyers to invest in commodities.

• Buyers’ coverage beyond June is limited; demand recovery is to be expected during Q3 and Q4.

• Pepper plantation areas is decreasing annually while proper caring for pepper vines is neglected.

• Farming input cost significantly increased which translates to higher production cost.

• Climate change is also worsening the vulnerability of farmers.

• Considering the small pricing differences between Brazil and of Vietnam, companies based in Hochiminh will probably focus on Vietnamese Pepper especially now that Sundried material is not easily available until August month.

• Early reports indicating Indonesian next crop will be small.

----------------------------

Pepper Talk: Bullish Bearish Analysis by Royal Golden © Royal Golden 2023. All Rights Reserved.

PEPPER HARVESTING SEASON IN VIETNAM 2021

 

 

The Vietnamese pepper market has gone through many emotional levels in just a short month.
Through the collection, we would like to send you some quick highlight about the situation of pepper developments in Vietnam from January 1 to March 31, 2021 as follows:

Producers and exporters do not understand what happened within a month when prices rose hot in the middle of the pepper season.
In the past 10 years, it was only in 2011 that the price situation has evolved like 2021 .
Most think that prices will drop when Vietnam is in the peak season in March and
everybody will focus on preparing for full-year orders.
However, the market has grown so fast that many customers have not been able
to buy their expected inventories.

For the most cautious, cannot imagine the price of pepper can increase 42%in just 1 month.
A lot of questions are asked daily which is the main reason:

As for Farmers
• Lost due to poor crop
• Prefer to storing pepper
• Selling other agriculture product instead of pepper
• Price very attractive to storage

Some factors that stimulated many exporters/domestic agents to buy stocks
• China and Domestic speculators buying very aggressively after Lunar New Year.
• Demand coming from Middle East & India for March - April shipment.
• USA customers are more interesting to cover full-year shipments but processors/exporters hesitate to offer further shipments.
• Several exporters are big short and have been buying raw material in secret in order to ensure shipment on time to the buyers.


The hot price increase and one day the increase and decrease amplitude of 15% stimulated many people to participate in speculation.
The rapid increase in prices caused many exporting companies shortage of raw material and many domestic collectors not performing the deliveries as committed, causing the phenomenon of raw materials not being
delivered to the processor.
Therefore, export volume in the first quarter will also decrease with an expected less than 30-35% compared to the same period in 2020.

Many domestic collectors/speculators did not comply with their commitments, causing a serious shortage of raw materials in many times, which
stimulated prices to skyrocket.
Many factors resonate at the same time that makes farmers /speculators have a strong belief that prices will continue to increase in the coming time so they do
not need to sell large quantities when prices are adjusted down.
Despite has poor crop, the cheerful atmosphere has returned in many pepper plantation.
Many farmers actively harvest because prices have met expectations and help farmers feel secure to take care of better pepper.

You may download the full report by clicking here:

https://ptexim.com.vn/en/news/pepper-harvesting-season-in-viet-nam-2021/
 

 

You may be also interested in:
 

New crop Brazilian Pink Peppercorns
https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/04/brazilian-pink-pepper-new-crop.html

Vietnam Pepper&Spices prices on week 13
https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/04/vietnam-pepper-spices-prices-update-5th.html 

 

 

IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT No. 09/21, 22 - 26 February 2021

 

LOCAL MARKET REPORT

Market this week showed a mixed response with only Indonesia was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,545 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,442 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,424 per Mt for white pepper. The decrease of Indonesia's pepper could be contributed to the weakening of Indonesia Rupiah against the US Dollar (IDR 14,129 @ USD 1), recording a 1% depreciation. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable, averaging at USD 2,492 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,962 per Mt for white pepper. As market resume after T?t Holiday, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 3% and 8% respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,246 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,302 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black p epper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,682 per Mt.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REPORT

International market was also reported with a mixed response as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 2% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,822 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,955 per Mt for black pepper and USD 5,164 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 6%, 6% and 5% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,075 per Mt, USD 3,156 per Mt and USD 4,170 per Mt respectively.

VIETNAM PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 22ND 2021 – WEEK 8

 

 

 

Vietnam exported 16.896 tons in January 2021 with a turnover of 48.72 million $, down 18.54% in volume and 8.67% in value compared to the previous month, but up 14.43 % in volume and 35.38% in value compared with the same period last year. Average export price in the at 2,884 USD/ton, up 4.23% compared to the average export price of December 2020. Due to the Lunar New Year in February, the number of exports is forecast to decrease compared to January 2021 and reach around 13.500 tons.

Last week the prices have seen an impressive increase from 53,000 VND and reach 55,500 VND today, equivalent to a 4.5% increase within a week. Due to the delivery deadline in Feb, processors and exporters are increasing buying to ensure shipment on time. Currently, the higher demand than before last 2 week, pushing the market prices up slightly in many different areas in Vietnam.

Meanwhile, many agents/collectors have not reopened after Lunar New Year, so the business in domestic markets is still very slow, raw material not profuse on the market.

The weather in key pepper areas is quite favorable, so it is expected that farmers will focus their harvest and plentiful supply in the next few weeks.

The situation of freight rates from Vietnam to EU/US/ASIA/AFRICA is forecast to continue to be tense and there is still no sign of a discount from shipping lines, freight rate is unlikely to decrease as expected in March.

 

 

VIETNAM PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 09 NOV 2020 – WEEK 46

 

Pepper exports in October reached 19 thousand tons, worth 48 million USD, up 4% in volume and 4.9% in value compared to the last month, compared with October 2019, up 11.9% in volume and 17.1% increase in value. In the first 10 months of 2020, pepper exports reached 239 thousand tons, worth 537 million USD, down 4.6% in volume and 15.2% in value over the same period in 2019.

Average pepper export price in October was estimated at 2,526 USD/ton, up 0.9% compared to September and 4.6% to October 2019.

Export of ground pepper has also achieved impressive quantity and continuous growth over the years, exports of ground black pepper increased by 37.5% in volume and 26.6% in value compared with the same period in 2019 reached 24.3 thousand tons, value 68.14 million USD. Ground black pepper to most major markets increased, including USA, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, Thailand, Sweden, China, and Korea.

Many countries relax social distancing especially with the main import markets such as the USA, China, and India. After 4 months of moderate buying (July to October), we have foreseen China becoming more aggressive to stockpile during November. Otherwise, the Vietnam - EU Free Trade Agreement has opened up so we hope for many other opportunities for Vietnam's pepper in the coming time.

After being affected by many storms and tropical depressions, the weather in the key pepper areas of Vietnam was much better when the rainfall decreased significantly, the weather was generally quite favorable. However, the pepper market still steadily increased in price at week 45 as demand continued to increase in almost all markets ASIA/AFRICA/USA (except the EU) and especially increased strongly from China.

Due to the heavy rains, this year's crop in Vietnam is expected to be harvested at least 1 month later than previous years. The earliest harvest area in Daknong province almost only begins harvesting in January (Year 2017/2018/2019 harvested a little in early December).
The pepper prices were low last year, so the pepper string was uneven and sparse due to the lack of fertilizer and farmer care. This may cause the quantity of light berries to drop sharply in the 2021 crop (light berries and light berries to extra oil). In addition, pepper prices may stabilize and increase in 2021 that encourage farmers to have the psychology of storing, not harvesting early, and not picking green pepper corn like 2018/2019 to sell. The shortage of light berries pepper in the first quarter of 2021 is the possibility to make pepper pricing in the main season not come down as expected. Last 2 years, light berries prices have sometimes gone up 100 – 200$ within 1 – 2 days that make pepper raw material also moved up.

In addition, the harvest is likely to be slower next crop 2021, the demand for white pepper in all markets is very high while the raw materials harvested at the beginning of the 2021 season cannot be used for white pepper production due to low density. This is also a significant factor affecting prices in the coming time.

Other information; Several inquiries not only from overseas but also in local traders for next year shipment 2021 with the price is the similar prompt shipment for large quantities.

 

 

VIETNAM SPICES - A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW - UPDATE 26TH OCT 2020 – WEEK 44

 

 

 

 

1/ PEPPER

 

According to the Vietnam Customs data, in the first 23 days of October, Vietnam exported 15,405 tons of pepper and Vietnam exported approximately 240,000 tons of pepper in the first 10 months of 2020. This is a very impressive figure as the total production of the 2020 crop is predicted from various sources from 230-250,000 tons. Although Vietnam imports from other countries such as Indonesia/Brazil/Cambodia around 24.841 tons, the inventory from the old crops 2 to 3 years ago such as 2018 & 2019 has been gradually reduced. We will not be surprised stock carry forward of this year 2021 are forecasted to plummet and less than so much carryover 2020.

Covid 19 control has been better in many countries that speed up many countries to increase production while inventories almost tight. Therefore, many different countries to increase their purchase order starting from the 4th quarter to supplement production in 2021. This has resulted in many spices items having very impressive price increases such as;

- Pepper; increased by 10% within 1 week from October 16-25

- Cassia/Cinnamon; 10% price increase within 1 day from last week

- Star Anise has achieved a historic increase in 60% within 1 month.

In addition, an increase in the consumption of convenience foods such as snacks, soups, sandwiches, and frozen products are expected to a surge in demand in the global spice market in the coming years.

China import pepper in the third quarter was only 4,131 tons, around 34.9% compare with the first quarter and only 17.0% compare with the second quarter. Total import in 9 months was 40,305 tons of pepper. Therefore, China has started to increase the quantity of purchases for the fourth quarter, which has significantly contributed to the hot rise in pepper prices last time. Otherwise, in the key pepper areas of Vietnam, it is forecasted that output will drop sharply in 2021 due to the heavy effects of climate change such as storms, floods, and limited care from the farmer. That's contributed to stabilizing pepper prices and have less opportunity to decrease the prices in the medium term.

 

 

Other highlights last week;

 

The Malaysian Pepper Commission (MPB) predicts that the pepper production in 2020 will decrease by 20% and reached only 30,000 tons. The reason is due to poor storage of pepper on the farm as well as farmers less take care for the pepper plantation when pepper prices are low.

Export data first 9 months of 2020;

 

- Asia imported 50.7% Vietnam pepper and continues to be the largest pepper importer of Vietnam, but decreased 5.0% over the same period. The leading importer is China with an import volume of 40,305 tons, down 25.1% over the same period; India imported 10,760 tons, down 37.9%; Saudi Arabia imported 9,989 tons, up 14.0%; Pakistan imported 8,566 tons, down by 4.0%...

 

- European imports ranked second, up 1.1%, and roughly for 20.9% of the total export volume of Vietnam Pepper. Leading by Germany imported 8,645 tons, down 5.3%; The Netherlands imported 5,873 tons, down 9.3%; Russia imported 4,606 tons, up 10.2%; The UK imported 4,241 tons, up 20.9%. France imported 3,153 tons, up 41.8%; Poland imported 2,642 tons, up 25.5%...

 

- The third-largest importer around 20.8% in Latin America and increased by 3.0% over the same period. Of which the United States is the largest pepper import from Vietnam, imported 42,040 tons, up 8.3% over the same period and roughly for 90.9% of the Latin America market share. Canada imported 2,063 tons and increased 0.8% over the same period last year.

 

- African imports around 7.7% and increased by 1.0% over the same period last year. The main is Egypt, which imported 7,627 tons, up 26.5%. Imports decreased in South Africa and Senegal with a decrease in 15.3% and 17.2% respectively.

The 3 largest pepper importing countries of Vietnam are the US, China, and India with the total import volume of 93,105 tons occupying 42% of the total export volume of Vietnam Pepper.

 

 

No	Market	9 MONTHS 2018	9 MONTHS 2019	9 MONTHS 2020
1	ASIA	52,9%	55,7%	50,7%
2	EU	19,8%	19,8%	20,9%
3	Latin America	19,2%	17,8%	20,8%
4	Africa	8,0%	6,7%	7,7%
Total		100%	100%	100%

 

 

2/ CASSIA

 

Prices up during the past 2 weeks such as;
- 10% for cassia broken within 1 or 2 days from last week
- 16% for cassia split last 2 weeks
- 9% for cassia cigarette/sticks.

Prices increased rapidly due to a shortage of supplies from China/Indo… while Vietnam's crop output was not as expected. Harvesting is also very difficult due to the heavy rain and storms/tropical depression. Demand continues to increase from USA/EU/… has made Cassia prices are forecasted to continue to increase in the near future.

 

 

3/ STAR ANISED

 

Huge demand from different countries such as USA/EU/China has made the price of anise rose dramatically with an increase of 50 - 65% in just 1 month. Prices are currently high and there is no chance of a decrease in the short term.



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