Pepper Market Report Week 44 – 2023

 

As market struggles to find support overseas, Vietnam was reportedly seen with a decline last week by 1,4% for raw material. However, over the weekend, China reappears prompting market to firm up a bit at today’s opening. Exporters remain on a sideline as USA and EU demands are still elusive for spot coverings as most seems to be eyeing now for new crop next year.

Indonesia – speculators last week are in a market to sell as prices also are seen softening a bit with depreciating local currency that has been beaten by negative sentiments since last month. But then Muntok stock position is not that promising, with a volume that could be just good enough for local consumption. 

Brazil although price is supportive compared to others, origin’s current state is not sitting well. The country is now in midst of experiencing severe drought in history due to lack of rain. It is much worser in Amazonas as its port Manaus had dried the water to even allow ships to dock. Para’s crop reporting crop failure and although ES is still surviving, the domino effect of the whole situation very soon can cause more shipment delays and cancellation which these days has been a dilemma by almost all exporters. 

Royal Golden Trading, Dubai

Brazil Pepper Pricing Overview

 

Brazil still seen stable over the past few weeks with local currency that is under depreciation pressure over US dollars Brazil's real BRL, fell between 0.3% and 0.7%. Though in a good note, exporters’ woes with the rising production and shipping cost for Pepper could balance out the market pricing. 

Brazil Pepper Plant Production
Espírito Santo as the epicenter of pepper production reportedly seen with plants dying due to weather condition with the degree of the damage that is still unknown. On the other hand, Pará harvest reportedly plummeted by about 20%, due to high temperatures and lack of rain.

Brazil Pepper September Export
Brazil exported about 7,244 tons of pepper for the month of September, with about 57,652 tons export volume for the first nine (9) months of the year which is 4% lower as compared to last year’s same period covered.

Brazil Pepper Export Destinations
Vietnam still a top importer of Brazil Pepper, managing to import about 11,867 tons from Q1-Q3, down by about 9% compared to last year same period. UAE, top two importer at 5,464 tons, down by about 19% from last year as well.

Germany and USA both import volume dropped down by about 60% and 92% respectively owing to the stricter import regulation due to Salmonella issue.

This report is part of  
RGT Pepper Market Report – October 2023
Royal Golden Trading 2023. All Rights Reserved.

Brazil Pepper Pricing Overview Week 37

 

Plantation in São Mateus, Espirito Santo

Brazil remains stable and firm; expected to slowly
move at upward trend. Still seeing difficulties in 
securing raw material from farmers especially for 
sundried materials. 

Brazil Pepper Crop Situation
Another El Nino induced drought affecting mostly 
Para region with reports of dying plants and crop 
failures reversing the earlier projected good yield. 
Sundried materials are expected to be more limited 
with prices that could further move at an upward 
trend. 

Brazil Pepper August Export 
Brazil managed to export 5,113 tons of pepper for the 
month of August, generating about 50,408 tons for 
the first eight (8) months of the year. The volume is 
lower by a 2% margin only from last year’s export 
volume for same period. 

For the first eight (8) months of this year, the highest 
importer of Brazil Pepper is still Vietnam, able to 
import 9,437 tons, followed by Senegal with 4,820
tons, UAE at 4,789 tons, Morocco at 4,375 tons, India 
at 3,830 tons and Pakistan at 3,484 tons.

RGT Pepper Market Report – Week 37 /2023 
Royal Golden Trading 2023. All Rights Reserved.

The various changes of Brazilian Black Pepper Trade

For the second year in a row Vietnam became the biggest importer of brazilian black pepper, overcoming traditional destinations like USA and also Germany.

USA has been the leading importer of brazilian black pepper since the beginning of the century.

Big changes happened after COVID-19 pandemia and actually during the last 10 years, starting with the production area in Brazil that developed a new very active production zone in the central-east (south of Bahia state and Espirito Santo state).Brazilian exports that were around 30k - 40 k tons per year from 2000 to 2015, rised to 91,000 ton in 2021.

Prices this week range between 3350 -3500 FOB.

The chart below show Brazilian Exports per destination from 2018 to 2023 elaborated by Coreimex. 

Prices this week range between 3350 -3500 FOB

If interested ask for a firm offer  peppertrade@olcom.com.br

IPC MARKET REPORT 33/23, 07 - 11 August 2023

 

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

August 11th 2023

The pepper market this week showed a mix response with only Malaysian local white pepper price reported with a decrease.

The Indian pepper price continued to be reported with an increasing trend since mid-July. The increase could be contributed to the upcoming festival season in India which resulted in an increased demand for black pepper.

Both local and international prices for Indonesia reported with an increasing trend this week as some areas in Lampung reported to start harvesting.

Only Malaysian local white pepper reported with a decreasing trend this week. Whilst, the others reported stable and unchanged.

The local price for Sri Lankan pepper continued to be reported with an increasing trend for the last four (4) weeks.

The Vietnamese local price continued to be reported with an increasing trend since last week. Whilst, the Vietnamese international price remained stable and unchanged as the market was quiet. 

Vietnam Pepper market Monthly Report March 2023

APRIL 17 2023

MARCH 2023 PEPPER EXPORTS

According to preliminary statistics of VPA, in March 2023, Vietnam exported 35,913 tons of pepper, 32,912 tons of black pepper, 3,001 tons of white pepper. Total export turnover reached 107.2 million USD, black pepper reached 93.6 million USD, white pepper reached 13.6 million USD, compared to the previous month, the export volume increased by 27.5%. The average export price of black pepper in March was U$ 3,454;Ton white pepper was U$ 4,841/ton, compared to previous month the price of black pepper increasedby 5,5% and the white pepper decrease by 15,9&

Exports to China in March reached 15,710 tons, this is the highest export volume ever in a month, breaking the highest export record of April 2020 at 11,953 tons, compared to February export volume to China increased by 85.2%. March also recorded an increase in exports to traditional markets such as the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, India, Egypt, France, Russia, Canada, and Spain,  Saudi Arabia and Turkey increased. The United Kingdom decreased compared to February 2023.

EXPORTING PEPPER FROM JAN TO MAR 2023

Progressively from January 1 to the end of March 2023, Vietnam exported 76,727 tons, of which black pepper reached 70,222 tons, white pepper reached 6,505 tons. 

Total export turnover reached 235.9 million USO, black pepper reached 205.4 million USO, white pepper reached 30.5 million USO. 

Compared to the same period last year, the export volume increased by 40.5% or 22,112 tons, however, the export turnover decreased by 7.3% or 18.5 million USO.

Exports in the first 3 months to China reached 25,919 tons compared to 2,138 tons in the same period, a sudden increase in exports can be understood as China buying to make up for the shortage of goods after 3 years of closure because of Covid-19. In contrast to the Chinese market, exports to the United States, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and India decreased. 

The reason may be due to the economic crisis, so the markets limit purchases. Some other markets recorded an increase in exports such as Iran up 461%; Turkey increased by 331.3%; Egypt by 218.4%; Senegal increased by 148.8%... 

The leading import markets of white pepper: Germany, the United States, China, the Netherlands

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#2023 pepper crop,#black pepper #pepper price,#April pepper price,#vietnam pepper price

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Pepper price in 2023 - UP or DOWN ?

The question of the moment is the Price
All the people involved in spice trading  or even need to know what is this year trend for Pepper.
We just got a report from one of biggest world spice trade players whose point of view may bring some answers.

Market will remain at pricing level for raw material between 62,000-67,000 VND/kg from Q1-Q2 and will slowly move upward into 75,000-80,000 VND/kg by Q3-Q4.

We suspect prices we are seeing this year will be the lowest. Next four (4) years cycle might lean into an upward trend from the current levels.

Pepper price hit a 10% increase in pricing since the beginning of this year. 
Lowest level was seen at 59,000 VND during January month and had crossed over the highs of 69-70,000 VND marked during February month.

Overall, we see indications suggesting bulls having a strong advantage over bears

------------------------

The Bearish Indicators

• Higher interest rates means higher storage cost which tampers buying power.

• Brazil crop news will probably be a decisive moment. If crop is big, it will supply Vietnam and rest of the world.

• Economic situation worldwide is not satisfactory which may reduce imports.

• Various countries encountering devaluation of their currencies and shortage of dollars causing a eduction in imports. 

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The Bullish Indicators

• Vietnam had already finished harvesting 80% of its yield and still no hint of selling pressure from farmers’ side.

• The new crop arrival in the warehouses were very limited during the peak arrival season.

• Chinese is actively buying and will remain active until June 2023.

• The first two (2) months of the year, Vietnam have already exported about 42,000 tons. March export is expected to reach about 30,000 tons. By first half of 2023, big volume will be exported, and emaining quantity will be in strong hands.

• Exporters are not keen to offer forward positions.

• Exporters feel that the levels we are seeing now will be the lowest; therefore, not to go short will be an advantage.

• Farmers are holding their pepper goods due to the advantage of coffee and other fruits high prices income.

• Both stock market and real estate property are not doing well, causing most buyers to invest in commodities.

• Buyers’ coverage beyond June is limited; demand recovery is to be expected during Q3 and Q4.

• Pepper plantation areas is decreasing annually while proper caring for pepper vines is neglected.

• Farming input cost significantly increased which translates to higher production cost.

• Climate change is also worsening the vulnerability of farmers.

• Considering the small pricing differences between Brazil and of Vietnam, companies based in Hochiminh will probably focus on Vietnamese Pepper especially now that Sundried material is not easily available until August month.

• Early reports indicating Indonesian next crop will be small.

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Pepper Talk: Bullish Bearish Analysis by Royal Golden © Royal Golden 2023. All Rights Reserved.

IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT - HIGHLIGHT ON BRAZIL FEBRUARY 2021

 

HIGHLIGHT ON BRAZIL

Production and Productivity

Brazil as one of the major pepper producing and exporting countries known for its Black Pepper, has a more competitive price as opposed to other origins. Brazil cultivates its pepper partially in Para State (Pa) North of Brazil and Espirito Santos (Es) South of Brazil. Furthermore, Brazil has also surpassed Indonesia as the second largest pepper producer in the world with estimated quantity of 95,000 Mt in 2020.

During 2009-2020 the area under pepper cultivation in Brazil had fluctuated with an increasing trend. Between 2009-2016, area under pepper cultivation in Brazil saw a decrease by 6% to a total of 25,660 Ha from 27,415 Ha in 2009. The area under pepper cultivation in Brazil saw an increasing trend during 2016-2020 with an increase of 20% to a total of 30,700 Ha. In the course of 12 years between 2009-2020 total area under pepper cultivation in Brazil recorded an increase by 12% . Furthermore, in 2020 the area under pepper cultivation in Brazil was estimated to decrease by 1% as compared to 2019 to a total of 30,700 Ha. Whilst, for the year 2021 the area of pepper cultivation was projected to be stable and unchanged.

Brazil production of pepper during 2009-2020 was reported fluctuating with a rather positive trend. In the course 12 years since 2009 pepper production in Brazil was reported to have recorded an increase of 133% as it estimated a total of 95,000 Mt in 2020. The highest production of Brazil pepper in the course of 12 years between 2009-2020 was reported in 2020 with an estimation of 95,000 Mt whilst the lowest production occurred in 2012 with 32,000 Mt. However, in the year 2021 production of Brazil pepper was projected to decrease by 5% when compared with 2020 to a total of 90,000 Mt.

Pepper productivity in Brazil in the course of 12 years between 2009-2020 was reported to be fluctuated with a rather positive trend. During 2009-2020, the lowest pepper productivity in Brazil was reported in 2010 with 1,462 Kg per Ha while the highest productivity was reported in 2020 which was estimated at 3,094 Kg per Mt. The lowest decrease of pepper productivity in Brazil was reported to occur in 2016 as it recorded a 19% loss when compared with the previous year. Whilst the highest increase of pepper productivity was reported in 2017 which recorded a 45% increase as opposed to the previous year. For the year 2020, Brazil pepper productivity was estimated with an increase of 20% as opposed to 2019 to 3,094 Kg per Ha. Whilst in 2021 Brazil pepper productivity was projected with a decrease by 5% to 2,932 Kg per Ha .

Pepper Export from Brazil

Brazil, known as the second largest pepper producer in the world, had managed to take the second largest pepper exporter position from Indonesia in 2017. Since 2009 until 2020 there had been a significant increase of 151% or 53,986 Mt in the quantity of pepper exported from Brazil which was mainly dominated with black pepper as it contributed to 94% of the total export figures . The highest pepper export occurred in 2020 with 89,756 Mt whilst the lowest export occurred in 2012 with 29,129 Mt. In 2020, pepper export from Brazil was reported at 89,756 Mt which comprised of 86,166 Mt of black pepper and 3,590 Mt of white pepper. Thus, recording an increase of 6% as opposed to the previous year.

The number of pepper exports from Brazil had reportedly fluctuated in the last 2 years. The total export by Brazil in the past 24 months was reported at 174,432 Mt with total value as high as USD 364.9 Million. The average pepper export from Brazil was reported to be 7,268 Mt per month. The highest pepper export of Brazil occurred in October 2019 which reached 11,119 Mt whilst the lowest was reported in July 2019 with 3,046 Mt (Table 10). The high level of exports during that period (October) correlated closely to Brazil harvest season.

Pepper from Brazil is exported to various countries around the world (Table 11). In 2020, the top 10 country of destinations for Brazilian pepper were reported to be Germany with 13,281 Mt (Contributed to 15% of Brazil's total pepper export in 2020), Viet Nam with 12,173 Mt (14%), United States of America with 11,993 Mt (13%), Morocco with 7,486 Mt (8%), Egypt with 6,728 Mt (7%), United Arab Emirates with 5,117 (6%), India with 4,251 Mt (5%), Pakistan with 3,650 Mt (4%), Netherlands with 2,870 Mt (3%) and Mexico with 2,565 (2.9%).

Pepper Export Price

Brazil pepper export price had fluctuated significantly in the past three years which could be attributed to the world supply of pepper significantly exceeding the global demand. In 2018, the average export price for Brazilian pepper was reported at USD 2,835 per Mt with the highest prices recorded in January with USD 3,509 per Mt whilst the lowest price was reported in November with USD 2,195 per Mt.

In 2019, the average export price of Brazilian pepper was reported at USD 2,148 per Mt, recording a decreased of 23% as compared to 2018. In 2019, the highest price was reported to have reached USD 2,316 per Mt (July 2019) recording a deficit by 25% as compared to the same period in 2018. Whilst, the lowest price was reported in November with USD 2,002 per Mt, recording a deficit by 9% as compared to the same period in 2018.

In 2020, the average export price of Brazilian pepper was reported at USD 2,082 per Mt, recording a 3% decreased as compared to 2019. In 2020, the highest price was reported to have reached USD 2,412 per Mt (December 2020) recording an increase of 19% as compared to the same period in 2019. Whilst, the lowest price was reported in June with USD 1,888 per Mt, recording a deficit by 17% as compared to the same period in 2019 .

Source: