VIETNAM PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 26th APRIL 2021 – WEEK 17

 

 

 

PEPPER

 

According to customs data, exports in the first half of April 2021 reached 15,304 tons of pepper, with a turnover of $ 47.90 million, bringing pepper exports in the first 3.5 months of 2021 to 76,296. tons, turnover of USD 227.94 million, decreased by 21.98% in volume but increased by 7.32% in value over the same period last year.

 

The average export price in the period reached 3,130 USD / ton, up 6.07% compared with the average export price in March 2021. We forecast total quantity export in April will reach 34.000Mts at least and first 4 months 2021 Vietnam will export around 95.000 tons (first 4 months 2020 was 116.764 tons).

 

The pandemic Covid-19 outbreak in many countries of the world is causing the consumption of pepper to drop sharply, forcing the price to drop sharply last 2 weeks.

 

In the fact, the export situation is quite bleak, mainly handling old orders delivered in May. Meanwhile, although the harvest is over, there is no sell pressure from farmer as usual. 

 

In general, Vietnam has completed the 2021 pepper crop. Last week, the weather was favorable for plants to grow in the 2022 crop. Due to the slow demand from other markets such as China, the Middle East, and Europe. Along with that, the disease situation is still very complicated in the two pepper exporting countries as India and Brazil, besides farmers household also need to cover labor and fertilizer costs then this week farmers offer more raw material. The price has fluctuating daily last week with a range of 50 - 100 $ / MT. However, almost immediately the market recovered very quickly because farmers / collectors immediately not offer in bulk when market correction.

 

Let look back at the past 4 months and make a more assessment of Vietnam's crop situation in 2021. We would like to send you the data scenarios that are likely to happened during this year to have a more comprehensive view of the price trend in the coming time.

Section	Scenario 1	Scenario 2	Scenario 3
Carryover (2019 – 2020)	50	40	40
Crop 2021	230	200	170
Total Import 2021	30	30	30
Exported in first 4 months	94,5	94,5	94,5
Domestic consumption	10	10	10
Lost weight in process white pepper	10	10	10
Quantity available next 8 months	195,5	155,5	125,5
Possibility	50% ?	50% ?	0%

 

 

Please note;

 

- The data of inventories of the year before 2019 / 2020 passed through is now in stock of farmers / exporters, processor / agents with very low selling pressure (frozen stock).

 

- Every year, inventories (carryover) are usually kept at origin about 10-15% of the total exported volume.

 

According to the above hypothetical scenarios, the third scenario is unreasonable, although this is the number of many people have given up on the market in order to distort the market and not correct source. The scenario easier will be under 1 & 2. Regardless of any scenarios, pepper production in 2021 is not expected to be as abundant as in previous years and supply pressure took place in February and March as you can see (prices increased by 45% within more than 1 month).

 

 

 

 

CHECK LAST PRICE INDICATIONS FOR VIETNAM PEPPER, CASSIA, TURMERIC, STARANISE...
https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/04/vietnam-price-indication-for-pepper.html