Pepper - Downward pressure remains

The domestic pepper market is going through unstable days with pepper prices continuously decreasing. Accordingly, today's market on October 15, 10, pepper prices in key areas such as Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Binh Phuoc traded around 143.000 - 144.000 VND/kg, with the highest price in Dak Lak and Dak Nong is 144.000 VND/kg. This price decrease makes pepper growers worried and raises many questions about the prospect of pepper prices in the coming time.

To further analyze the domestic pepper market developments and forecast pepper prices tomorrow, October 16, 10, we need to consider some key influencing factors.

Pepper market world is under competitive pressure from Indonesia and Brazil. According to an update from the International Pepper Community (IPC), at the end of the most recent trading session, the price of Indonesian Lampung black pepper reached 6.744 USD/ton, up slightly by 0,18%, the price of Muntok white pepper reached 9.233 USD/ton, up 2,5%. However, the price of Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper and Malaysian ASTA black pepper tended to decrease. The slight increase in Lampung black pepper price may be a positive signal, but not enough to create momentum for the Vietnamese pepper market. Because the price of Brazilian ASTA black pepper is at a competitive level with the price of Vietnamese pepper, while the slight decrease in the price of Malaysian ASTA black pepper also makes the market more unstable.

Pepper exports to China are also showing signs of decline. Statistics from the Chinese Customs Administration show that in August 8, the country's pepper imports reached 2024 tons, worth 890 million USD, down 5,8% in volume and 54,7% in value compared to the previous month. Although China's pepper imports in the first 36,8 months of the year increased by 8% in volume and 21,9% in value compared to the same period in 41, imports from Vietnam decreased significantly, reaching only 2023 tons, up 2.329% over the same period. The cause of this decline may come from many factors, including price competition from Indonesia. Indonesia is in the harvest season, making the supply abundant and prices more competitive. The decline in demand in the Chinese market is also a factor worth noting.

Vietnam's pepper exports are also facing difficulties with a sharp decline. According to the latest data from the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, Vietnam's pepper exports to China in the first 9 months of the year (including official and unofficial channels) reached 8.905 tons, down sharply by 84,1% compared to the same period last year. This sharp decline shows the weakening of the Chinese pepper market for Vietnamese pepper. In addition to price competition from Indonesia, the trend of shifting to other sources of supply also affects Vietnam's pepper exports.

Based on current market information, it is predicted that pepper prices tomorrow, October 16, 10, will continue to decrease slightly. The downward pressure from the world market will continue to affect domestic pepper prices. Pepper exports to China have not shown signs of recovery, while pepper import prices from Indonesia are more competitive. Domestic consumption demand shows no signs of growth.

However, it should be noted that pepper prices can change based on many other factors, so it is necessary to monitor closely and make appropriate decisions.

With current difficulties, pepper growers need to be flexible in production and business activities, while seeking solutions to improve productivity and product value, contributing to maintaining and developing the Vietnamese pepper industry.

*Information for reference only.

Sources: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-16102024-ap-luc-giam-gia-van-hien-huu-352587.html