Signs of instability hidden behind market stability

Industry and Trade Newspaper

17/10/2024

The domestic pepper market is experiencing complicated developments, with trading prices increasing slightly on October 16, 10, but still containing many unstable factors. It is forecasted that prices tomorrow, October 2024, 17, will likely continue to maintain a stable price, but it is still necessary to closely monitor the latest market developments.

Pepper prices today (October 16, 10) in key regions recorded a slight increase compared to yesterday. Specifically, pepper prices Dak Lak purchased at 144.000 VND/kg, Chu Se pepper price (Gia Lai) purchased at 143.500 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Pepper price Dak Nong Today's price is recorded at 144.000 VND/kg, unchanged from yesterday.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices today (October 16, 10) also recorded fluctuations compared to yesterday. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, it is currently at 2024 VND/kg, an increase of 144.000 VND/kg. At Binh Phuoc Pepper price today is at 144.000 VND/kg, up 500 VND/kg.

However, pepper prices world Today, there are signs of a slight decrease. Update on world pepper prices from the International Pepper Community (IPC), at the end of the most recent trading session, IPC listed the price of Indonesian Lampung black pepper at 6.744 USD/ton, and the price of Muntok white pepper at 9.233 USD/ton.

The price of Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper was at USD 6.750/ton. The price of Malaysian ASTA black pepper remained stable at USD 8.700/ton; the price of this country's ASTA white pepper reached USD 11.200/ton.

Today, the price of Vietnamese black pepper lost up to 300 USD/ton, trading at 6.500 USD/ton for 500 g/l; 550 g/l at 6.800 USD/ton; white pepper price at 9.850 USD/ton.

Pepper price forecast October 17, 10: Signs of instability hidden behind market stability.

The gap between domestic pepper prices and world pepper prices has been creating certain pressures on the Vietnamese pepper market. Although Vietnam's pepper exports remained positive in the first 9 months of 2024, with a total export turnover of 991 million USD, the decrease in pepper prices in the world market may affect domestic pepper prices in the coming time.

In addition, pepper output in 2024 is expected to be lower than last year, as many farmers cut down pepper trees to plant more profitable crops such as durian and coffee. Pepper output in 2024 is estimated to reach only about 170.000 tons, down 10% compared to last year. This is also the lowest level in the past 5 years.

It is expected that Vietnam's 2025 pepper harvest will be almost entirely in February 2, with some regions extending to March and April, 2025-3 months later than previous years due to the impact of prolonged drought. This will increasingly limit Vietnam's pepper supply, putting further pressure on domestic pepper prices.

In addition, climate change is also a factor that directly affects pepper production. El Nino and La Nina have been negatively affecting farmers' cultivation and maintenance of pepper gardens, reducing pepper yield and quality.

Based on the above analysis, it is forecasted that pepper prices tomorrow, October 17, 10, will likely continue to maintain a stable price, fluctuating between 2024 - 143.000 VND/kg. However, the pepper market still contains many unstable factors.

Investors and farmers need to closely monitor the latest market developments, including: world pepper prices, domestic pepper output, consumption demand and the impacts of climate change. In addition, investors also need to pay attention to policy information related to the pepper industry, because this is also an important factor affecting prices.

*Information for reference only.

Sources: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-17102024-dau-hieu-bat-on-an-sau-su-on-dinh-cua-thi-truong-352907.html