CLOVES MARKET - WHERE´S THE TRUTH ?

It has been more than one month already that we feel the cloves market very speculated with a sort of bullish reports but not big activity.
Peppertrade editors have a baseline to avoid speculative actions and movements, checking and re-checking received information in order to preserve our credibility and transmit as close as possible the market reality.
For this reason we kept in silence during all this time, moreover because the real true information about the crops, industry and stocks of the cloves is very difficult to be obtained within the desired accuracy.
However when news are being published in the big press we feel obliged to inform our readers too, even under this little considerations.
Apparently it is expected a big shortage of cloves this year, which is causing great boom in demanded prices.
Expectations are that these prices may reach somewhere between 6 and 8 thousand dollars per ton until the end of the year which is when the new African and Brazilian crops begin.
It has been reported that traders quoted Madagascan cloves at between $4,800 and $4,900 a tonne cif Singapore and at E 3,679 ($4,700) a tonne cif European ports at this moment and Indonesian offers were ranging from $5,500 to $5,800 a tonne c&f Indian ports.
Some traders say that, in view of the anticipated lower Indonesian output this year, prices of Indonesian cloves are likely to face sharp increases over the coming weeks. Trade estimates have pegged the Indonesian crop at just 35,000 tonnes. "They need at least twice this volume, " they say.One Bangalore trader remarked that world markets were virtually empty of clove stocks and he predicted that prices could easily surge to at least $6,500 a tonne over the coming weeks.

"The market is short and prices are high."
This is what some traders say. It is reported by some, that presently the market in Singapore is currently more expensive than that in Europe.The instability of the rupiah is making the market in Singapore and the Far East nervous. "As soon as it is stable again the market will move, " is been predicted.
Singapore, Pakistan and Dubai are headquarters of big stockist which may bring a sort of stability to the market with availablity all round the year. In february when the uncertainity begun one big trader in Singapore assured Peppertrade Editors that there were over 20,000 mt stocks lying there.
Actually these are the reports we have about the cloves at present time.
As one trader of a french trading company said:
"The market is very firm but not active, which is strange, " he said.
INDEED we say.

MORE ABOUT CLOVES IN INDIA

----- Original Message -----
From: dhirish
To: peppertrade@olcom.com.br
Sent: Monday, May 22, 2006 8:15 AM
Subject: reg cloves
dear sir

reg cloves mkts, india mkts will jump in few days, big cargo of cloves, areca nuts, pepper, misdeclared as srilanka cargo has been caught in india, these importers were misdeclaring cargo of indonesia cloves as srilanka cargo and clearing without import duty, in last 3-4 months more than 5000 tons imported, now all this cases will be reopened, import duty plus penalty to be collected, also importers will be sent to prison soonest.

please wait and see
regards

CLOVES IN INDIA

----- Original Message -----
From: dhirish
To: peppertrade@olcom.com.br
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2006 4:22 AM
Subject: reg cloves
dear sir

1. srilanka cloves, stock very limited, today prices at usd 6700-7000 per ton cif india

2. madagascar, brazil, comoros cloves at usd 4700-4900 levels, singapopre cloves mkyt hot as very less cargo there, today recd offers at usd 5200 for madagascar cloves

3. reg indonesia, all know that this year crop only 25%, huge losses due to less crop, plus added rains, every 5 years cloves crop are reduced to very short crops, this we have seen for last 35 years, also the gestation period is 7 years, so new crop planting takes 7 years to yield, next 2 years cloves mkts will remain bullish, as indonesia ands india will need 50000 tons for consumption, india yearly imports 15000 to 18000 tons cloves, but when there is shortages, the stockists buy 3 times the requirements, so please think of this situation

4. next 8 months deman will be very high, cloves prices are moving up very fast in india, we see 100 to 200 % jump in prices in next 2 months time

we hope this report will help many cloves traders
best regards
dhirish momaya

FUTURE TRENDS of BLACK PEPPER

From: mukesh patel
Sent: Thursday, May 18, 2006 1:00 PM
Subject: Future trends of BLACK PEPPER.



RESPECTED SIR,
I MUKESH PATEL, A traders in BLACK PEPPER in INDIA (MANGALORE) A firm by name K M B ENTERPRISES.

In INDIA , PEPPER PRODUCTION is less by 35% , This year production about 45000/ MT .There are less arrivals ,
The prices here are RS 71000 Per MT (1600) US DOLLARS PER MT MG1.
We expect that this year PEPPER rate increases by 40% of the last year.
Please let me know what your PRODUCTION ? and YOUR PREDICTIONS .
SORRY for the INCONVENIENCE CAUSED to you.
THANKING YOU.
MUKESH PATEL.
MANGALORE. (INDIA.)

INDONESIAN CLOVES

----- Original Message -----
From: Ingtraco
To: PEPPERTRADE
Sent: Sunday, May 14, 2006 10:44 PM
Subject: INDONESIAN CLOVES
Dear Mr. Michail Wagapoff

Good morning & hope you always fine. Thanks for your e-mail message.

Today local price in Indonesia is Rp 45,000-46,000 / kg. Exchange rate is Rp 8,800 / 1 USD.

Mostly of traders keep their stock due to they have opinion that the price will be higher due to harvest in this year which started on May is only 60% than ussual due to too much rain. But cigarette factories are buying in small quantity now.

Thanks & best regards
John Andreas

CLOVES

----- Original Message -----
From: dhirish
To: peppertrade@olcom.com.br
Sent: Monday, May 15, 2006 5:23 AM
Subject: regt cloves
dear sir

we recd info that indonesia crop this year only 20%, so prices are going even before crop arrd, today prices at usd 4700-4800, some cloves prices at usd 5100

today we heard the news of volcano in indonesia, java area, , cloves are grown there in big way, all cloves exporters are withdrwan, no sellers for cloves

we see this year cloves prices will reach high prices, may be usd 7500-8000 too

srilanka cloves crop was only 2000 tons, usual crop is 5000 tons,, india buys 90% crop, as import duty is only 4% for indian importers, now no crop left prices at usd 8000 today, no sellers too

new crop will take 6 months time, till then import demand from india woiill rise, indonesia cigar co will buy cloves too, so world mkt will face about 50000 tons shortages, we think prices will increase soonest in coming few weeeks

best regards

CLOVES MARKET RENDS

To: Trader Peppertrade - OL
Sent: Sunday, May 14, 2006 12:30 PM
Sear Sirs
Does anybody may explain how is the situation of the Indonesia crop of Cloves and what are the trends of this market ?
Marcelo
Salvador - Bahia