End Users demand has been decreasing whereas re-sellers are only buyers..............................A note of danger.........actual users have not bought when the exports were at peak(Q1)........In April the exports were poor overall................so chances of them buying is dull. I feel the market to go down sharply........
BE CAUTIOUS A GREAT FALL MAY BE AWAITING
SURESH
Thursday, May 24, 2007
Tuesday, May 22, 2007
Re: Black pepper market has been flat
it is a false news that vietnam decresed its price .in vietnam still there is no seller
Anonimous
Anonimous
India - Pepper crashes big today
Dear M W,
Pepper crashes big today !!!
MG I asta grade at $ 3550 pmt fob cochin for prmpt
buyers are gone, sellers on top.
Thanks / b rgds
Pepper crashes big today !!!
MG I asta grade at $ 3550 pmt fob cochin for prmpt
buyers are gone, sellers on top.
Thanks / b rgds
Re: Black pepper market has been flat
Stocks in warehouses of NCDEX are seen at 8490 MT.
Vietnam has not given any clue to global traders regarding its export intentions.
Buyers like China, USA etc prefer to watch the global activities for a while. This explains slower trading activity across the world during the week ending May 19th.
Producers’ offers in India are averaging around USD 3430-3435/MT ex-Kochi - down 1% from previous week.
Meanwhile the FOB markets maintained a steady trend throughout the previous week.
Abhijeet Banerjee
Vietnam has not given any clue to global traders regarding its export intentions.
Buyers like China, USA etc prefer to watch the global activities for a while. This explains slower trading activity across the world during the week ending May 19th.
Producers’ offers in India are averaging around USD 3430-3435/MT ex-Kochi - down 1% from previous week.
Meanwhile the FOB markets maintained a steady trend throughout the previous week.
Abhijeet Banerjee
Monday, May 21, 2007
Black pepper market has been flat
For 2 weeks in a row black pepper market has been flat with no buyers interest and still no prices decline could be foreseen in Brazil.
Vietnam reported some ease with 500 gl prices offered at U$D 3,600 today.
Indonesia also easier - U$D 3,850 pmt Lasta.
Brazilian farmers and exporters are holding firm on the 3,800 pmt fob level for the B1 560 gl. possibly due to continuos advises from ABEP that market will continue strong. On the other hand the weakness of the dollar does not help much to accept cheaper prices - it reached the cheapest price in 6 years - today R$ 1,94 / U$ 1,00
This week we publish the new brazilian export statistics for the first quarter. Also USA statistics for the first trimester are available.
Vietnam reported some ease with 500 gl prices offered at U$D 3,600 today.
Indonesia also easier - U$D 3,850 pmt Lasta.
Brazilian farmers and exporters are holding firm on the 3,800 pmt fob level for the B1 560 gl. possibly due to continuos advises from ABEP that market will continue strong. On the other hand the weakness of the dollar does not help much to accept cheaper prices - it reached the cheapest price in 6 years - today R$ 1,94 / U$ 1,00
This week we publish the new brazilian export statistics for the first quarter. Also USA statistics for the first trimester are available.
Sunday, May 13, 2007
INFO VIETNAM
Dear Sir,
Thks for info.
May I point out few aspects?
a- We think the rally is not finished as in Vietnam:
1- Crop 07 (85% harvested) has dropped by at least 20% to reach +/= 90,000 Mt (old trees, low yield due to lack of fertilizer , insect damage on roots), and for the following years, it should stand below 100,000 mt.
2- Low carry over from 2006.
3- Farmers are also in strong position as they do not produce only pepper but other commodities (coffee price was good this year > 1,400$ /mt) or spices.
4- Delays and defaults occurring also.
b-
1- On top of that Indonesia crop still show some weakness in their production (2006<35,000 Mt) and local prices are higher than Vietnam.
2- World offer/demand seems to be in deficit of at least 10%.
3- Low stocks in Consuming countries (mainly is US and Europe)
4- China and India still increase their consumption.
Although it will happen that at some point (4,500$, 5,000$??), Vietnamese farmers start selling but intermediary traders may hold part of it it as well. Rumors that outsiders of spice business start having long position of Pepper and we don’t expect them to release their position for few hundred dollars only!!
We remain bullish torward this market. As soon as we break the psychological level of 4,000$, the roof is open!
Keep in touch and further infos about Brazilian crop will be appreciated.
Thks & Brgds
Francois Bouvery
Sucrex-Export SA (Sucrex-Asia Vietnam)
Thks for info.
May I point out few aspects?
a- We think the rally is not finished as in Vietnam:
1- Crop 07 (85% harvested) has dropped by at least 20% to reach +/= 90,000 Mt (old trees, low yield due to lack of fertilizer , insect damage on roots), and for the following years, it should stand below 100,000 mt.
2- Low carry over from 2006.
3- Farmers are also in strong position as they do not produce only pepper but other commodities (coffee price was good this year > 1,400$ /mt) or spices.
4- Delays and defaults occurring also.
b-
1- On top of that Indonesia crop still show some weakness in their production (2006<35,000 Mt) and local prices are higher than Vietnam.
2- World offer/demand seems to be in deficit of at least 10%.
3- Low stocks in Consuming countries (mainly is US and Europe)
4- China and India still increase their consumption.
Although it will happen that at some point (4,500$, 5,000$??), Vietnamese farmers start selling but intermediary traders may hold part of it it as well. Rumors that outsiders of spice business start having long position of Pepper and we don’t expect them to release their position for few hundred dollars only!!
We remain bullish torward this market. As soon as we break the psychological level of 4,000$, the roof is open!
Keep in touch and further infos about Brazilian crop will be appreciated.
Thks & Brgds
Francois Bouvery
Sucrex-Export SA (Sucrex-Asia Vietnam)
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
Pepper Mkt overview
Pepper Price is set to hit another round of bull-run in the next few days due to sellers’ mostly cutting supply in major producing countries. According to our analysis in major consuming countries carryover stocks are fast getting depleted with limited scope for ready replacement.
Over dependence on single source for quite sometime is the main reason for the present predicament. Buyers from all over the world had an opportunity to contract quality Malabar pepper at reasonable levels of U.S. $1.2-1.35 before the bull run started in right earnest. Exporters in India were in a position to deliver substantial quantities due to the huge turnover in commodity exchanges. Average turnover in these exchanges is around 60,000 mt with the near month contracts always having good liquidity.
The situation has undergone a major change as the largest producer and exporter opting for a staggered selling strategy by holding on to stocks. This has created a new situation for global pepper industry and in this scenario commodity exchanges in India are fast turning out to be brand ambassadors for Vietnamese pepper growers and sellers.
Several investors with backing from funds are now involved Malabar pepper India’s commodity exchanges and the next month contract is having a premium of 40%. Exporters of black pepper from India are doing more deals in these commodity exchanges since February as they are assured of high returns without the hassles of shortage in weight, light berries, excreta presence etc. Exporters also receive the payment as early as 48 hours. Buyers need to come with innovative ideas to deal with the new situation as exporters from India are not having any compelling reason to chase buyers.
According to our analysis coming two weeks will be very interesting to watch . So wait and see what’s going to happen in black gold in the next fortnight.
Best Regards
Jojan Malayil
Over dependence on single source for quite sometime is the main reason for the present predicament. Buyers from all over the world had an opportunity to contract quality Malabar pepper at reasonable levels of U.S. $1.2-1.35 before the bull run started in right earnest. Exporters in India were in a position to deliver substantial quantities due to the huge turnover in commodity exchanges. Average turnover in these exchanges is around 60,000 mt with the near month contracts always having good liquidity.
The situation has undergone a major change as the largest producer and exporter opting for a staggered selling strategy by holding on to stocks. This has created a new situation for global pepper industry and in this scenario commodity exchanges in India are fast turning out to be brand ambassadors for Vietnamese pepper growers and sellers.
Several investors with backing from funds are now involved Malabar pepper India’s commodity exchanges and the next month contract is having a premium of 40%. Exporters of black pepper from India are doing more deals in these commodity exchanges since February as they are assured of high returns without the hassles of shortage in weight, light berries, excreta presence etc. Exporters also receive the payment as early as 48 hours. Buyers need to come with innovative ideas to deal with the new situation as exporters from India are not having any compelling reason to chase buyers.
According to our analysis coming two weeks will be very interesting to watch . So wait and see what’s going to happen in black gold in the next fortnight.
Best Regards
Jojan Malayil
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