J La Rive discuss teh article "Pepper ends the day extremely firm"

Please find below some comments on selected points of the article Pepper ends the day extremely firm published below

ARTICLE: Pepper ends the day extremely firm here in India with prices soaring to a 12 month high.
COMMENT: Yes True

A - Markets moving on bullish fundamentals and higher outside support, spill over strength from other commodities apparently lending very good support.
C - Market moving only on speculative buying in the Ncdex and there is virtually no internal or external buying support. Spill over from other commodities yes because the platform is designed as a casino.

A - The charge in pepper is led by the lack of sellers on the spot market which continues to spiral on the back of very firm future deliveries and very good buying interest.
C - There are sellers in spot market and takers are very few other than investors who are buying spot and selling future deliveries at a killing differnce from spot to future sept deliveries.

A - Prices on the future deliveries hit the 3 % circuit and closed at the day’s high.
Tight supply conditions continue for spot pepper which is being sought after by domestic traders in particular.
C - There is Plenty supply now as the prices have moved up and it will continue for some more time as many traders and stockists who were caught with inventories between inr 135-140 last year are coming out to get rid of the stocks and convert into Cash

A - Lower volumes in trade hitting the spot scene with most traders not excited with the rise in prices, since much of pepper has already been out of their hands as of now.
Higher markets from other origins act as a spark to fuel the upward surge
C - For how long ? as speculators wont pick up physical deliveries and next week itself we will see a big sell off and prices dropping like 9 pins

A - Indian MG I ASTA grade parity at $ 3100 / 3125 PMT FOB Cochin
C - But who cares indian parity ??

Rgds

La Rive

Pepper ends the day extremely firm

Pepper ends the day extremely firm here in India with prices soaring to a 12 month high.

Markets moving on bullish fundamentals and higher outside support, spill over strength from other commodities apparently lending very good support.

The charge in pepper is led by the lack of sellers on the spot market which continues to spiral on the back of very firm future deliveries and very good buying interest.

Prices on the future deliveries hit the 3 % circuit and closed at the day’s high.
Tight supply conditions continue for spot pepper which is being sought after by domestic traders in particular.
Lower volumes in trade hitting the spot scene with most traders not excited with the rise in prices, since much of pepper has already been out of their hands as of now.

Higher markets from other origins act as a spark to fuel the upward surge

Indian MG I ASTA grade parity at $ 3100 / 3125 PMT FOB Cochin

BLACK GOLD SHINNIG AGAIN

Black Gold which was neglected and depressed by recession news and macro economic news in the last 5 working days have become the center of attraction once again.

With Vietnam selling off almost everything in the first seven months of the year fearing National Commodity Exchange ( Ncdex) who have taken their trousers off last year did not wait for higher prices sold almost everything they have and now bewildered.
Indonesia who were almost spoiling the party for second half of the year suddenly came to their senses and increased the asking prices very close to Indiam levels.

Malayasia has become an importer of both black and white pepper from Vietnam quitely and marketing as Sarawak Black and Sarawak white to their predominant markets like Japan ,Korea and Taiwan was totally keeping away from major consuming markets like USA and European Union..
India the traditional cheer leader for the first time has become a follower of Vietnam this year and now took the lead in exciting global pepper cultivators, traders and speculators keeping aside pepper exporters and traditional pepper traders always complaining about the poor and backbone less regulator of futures trading FMC..

They just don't know whats the literal meaning of regulation according to Keralla farmers and traders of black pepper.and have made the  national exchange a gamblers den and money laundering platform.
According to Ms Yuliani of Putrabali Indonesia every origin has become manipulators and it has become impossible to do any business these days although markets have moved up quite a bit..

When contacted All India Spices Exporters forum vice chairman and the largest exporter of Indian pepper was kind enough to give us his estimate of stocks lying in different origins before the next new crops of India and Vietnam:
Indonesia exportable 5000 mt; Vietnam 40000 mt against just 15000 mt as claimed by some section of the media; 25000 mt from Brazil and 5000 mt from India which includes 2000 mt lying in the national exchanges and balance with farmers/traders.
The stocks of exporters cannot be taken as it is already sold in the national exchanges because of the attractive prices at which you can sell only in India and nowhere in the world.

Current prices of Asta pepper in different origins

Brazil 2700 fob belem
Indonesia usd 2850 fob Panjang
Vietnam usd 3050- 3100 fob hcmc
India Mg-1 asta usd 3050- 3100 fob Cochin
Sarawak Asta usd 3200 fob kuching

Think twice before you leap as some major players feel that it is overdone and not much to the north as industries are taken care by global traders and its their patience which has to be tested and not the industries

Rgds
La Rive

INDIA TODAY AUG 3rd

Pepper continues to move very very firm here in India with prices zooming ahead, International pairity pegged further higher as $ is weak again. Prices finishing off the day almost on the its highs at around + 2.5 to 2.75 % than the previous day. The movements of other spice agri futures were seen with similar patterns hinting at more and more outside participation. These influences were extremely supportive and perhaps sparking off some huge short covering too.
Analysts and traders continued to remain bullish on pepper as inventories remain tight with a lot of buying to be completed, fundamentals for spot pepper remained the same with supply extremely tight although the speed of the surge much faster on the future deliveries than on  spot.
Indian MG I ASTA grade parity at $ 2900 PMT FOB Cochin.

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Dumping pepper into domestic market a false propaganda

Dumping of imported Pepper into domestic market is a false propaganda to buy pepper at lower prices by a section of the trade shouldn't be taken seriously at all.

The country has imported 6700 mt of Black pepper in the first 6 months comprising of 3000 mt for value added grinding and sterilization and 3700 mt for oil and oleoresin extraction.
The average import is only 500 mt a month and in a market where there is a very tight supply situation and squeeze and prices expected to pick up from august and hit Rs 150/- kg it is senseless to dump this meager quantity into domestic market to depress prices.
The country which is consuming 50000 mt of black pepper every year ( about 4175 mt a month) according to some expert statisticians should have the minimum common sense that even if the entire 3000 mt is dumped by all importers the local prices are not going to be affected as the quantity is very meager to depress prices.

Dumping news is so far emanating only from one source all these days and it is a false news to scare growers and traders and buy pepper at cheaper prices according to major export firms.

With the inside news of disparity between India and Indonesia narrowing down and Vietnam slowly fading out of the Global Pepper scenario it was the move from some unethical traders propagating dumping of imported pepper into domestic market to depress prices and this news should be completely ignored according to All India Spice Exporters forum Vice chairman Mr. Jojan Malayil. Mr Malayil added that farmers/traders should sell only when they need money that badly as the Importing countries coverage is naked for the last quarter and India will get a chance to sell its balance pepper at premium prices.

Current prices in other origin are as follows : Brazil Asta usd 2350 fob Belem Indonesia Asta usd 2550-2600 fob panjang Vietnam asta usd 2600-2650 fob Hcmc and Indian mg-1 asta usd 2750-2800 pmt fob cochin

Rgds
La Rive