KERALA - Market in stupor as pepper prices rise; Indian variety most expensive

 

Kochi: The price of pepper increased by Rs 30 per kilo within a day. In other words, the price per quintal went up by Rs 3000. 

This sudden and unexpected rise has created a shock in the market. Last week, the price had increased by Rs 20 per kilo

The price of ungarbled pepper is Rs 550 per kilo on Monday while garbled pepper stands at Rs 570 per kilo.  

Traders in Kerala point out the intervention of North Indian lobby as the reason for this price hike. 

They say that this is the same trading lobby that intervened to increase the price of commodities like cumin and turmeric.

Unpredictable weather changes can detrimentally affect production. 

There were campaigns that claimed pepper production would drastically reduce next year. 

This is what prompted masala manufacturing companies to procure and horde large quantities of pepper.

Some prominent companies also invited tenders to meet the chilly requirement for the next few months. 

The lobby has anticipated a demand for pepper in the near future and this intervention led to a rise in prices, traders say.

Kerala farmers continue to maintain a distance from the market. 

Those who have pepper stock in hand are not bringing the goods into the market hoping the prices may increase even more. 

With festival season coming, they anticipate a further rise in price.

Presently, Indian pepper is the most expensive in the International market. 

As per latest records, the price of Indian pepper is at 7,300 dollars per ton. Meanwhile, the price of Brazilian pepper is only 3,500 dollars per ton.

Similarly, the Vietnamese and Indonesian peppers are priced at 3,600 and 2,800 dollars per ton respectively. 

Exports from India have been on the decline for some time now but imports from Brazil and Vietnam are subject to heavy tariffs. However, even after considering this tariff, pepper from other countries have a lower price in the market than Indian pepper. 

The trade community indicates that if prices continue to rise, it will pave the way for imports.

V.P Sreelan 25 July 2023, 12:10 PM IST.

Read more at: https://english.mathrubhumi.com/news/money/market-in-stupor-as-pepper-prices-rise-indian-pepper-the-most-expensive-in-international-market-1.8760376

Malaysia - Domestic pepper prices to continue rising

 

KUCHING, Monday, 24 Jul 2023

The price recovery in domestic pepper built up in the January to June 2023 period is expected to gather pace in the second half of 2023, predicts a leading local trader.

Nguong Aik (Kuching) Sdn Bhd director William S.C.Yii said it is likely that domestic pepper prices would continue their uptrend by another 10% from the current levels, adding “a 20% increase is possible” towards the end of the year.

Kuching Grade 1 black pepper’s price averaged RM14,000 per tonne on last Friday against RM12,900 per tonne at end-December 2022, an increase of RM1,100 per tonne or 8.5%, according to Malaysian Pepper Board’s daily published prices.

The price recovery for Kuching’s Grade 1 white pepper is, however, less significant. During the same period, white pepper gained RM600 per tonne to RM23,500 from RM22,900 per tonne.

In 2022, black pepper fared poorly, plunging RM4,430 per tonne or 25% from RM17,330 per tonne in 2021. Year-on-year, white pepper lost RM3,550 per tonne of 13.5% from RM26,430 per tonne.

At its peak, black and white pepper hit RM30,000 and RM50,000 per tonne respectively about eight years ago.

Yii said many traders, including those in Malaysia and Vietnam (worlds’ top pepper producer and exporter), have earlier predicted a robust pepper market in 2023 but based on the current market trend, they might be too bullish.

“At the beginning of the year, pepper prices have gone up quite a bit because of the re-opening of the borders (as the Covid pandemic started to ease).

“After China reopened its borders, pepper prices shot up as a result of the demand because for two years during the pandemic, China had not imported pepper.

“The prices, however, started to come down after the Lunar New Year celebrations.

“For other major pepper markets after the pandemic, major importers in pepper consuming countries (have changed their strategies) only buying hand-to-mouth instead of keeping large stocks of between 200 to 300 tonnes before. This has slowed down the demand,” he told StarBiz.

The strong US dollar and inflation are among the factors affecting pepper consumption.

Nguong Aik is Sarawak’s leading pepper exporter.

Vietnam’s General Department of Customs has reported that the country exported 131,500 tonnes of pepper worth US$406.5mil (RM1.85bil) in the first five months of 2023, which was a decrease of 11.6% in quantity and 33.2% in value as compared to the same period in 2022.

The average export price of the spice called “Vietnam’s black gold” was down by 33.2% to US$3,092 (RM14,069) per tonne during the same period.

In 2022, Vietnam exported 220,000 tonnes, accounting for 55% of the total pepper output in the globe.

The reason given for the sharp drop in export was that speculators reserved money to buy Robusta coffee as cocoa bean’s prices have surged.

Yii said due to weak pepper prices and the rising costs in pepper planting, some Vietnamese pepper farmers were reported to have switched to cultivating other crops,like durian.

He said Sarawak pepper market has stayed rather stable and quiet this year, with unprocessed black pepper trading between RM13.5 and RM16 per kilo while the white pepper trading between RM22.5 and RM26 per kg.

Sarawak has just completed its new crop’s harvesting, and Yii said the total production volume was similar to 2022, and not encouraging.

International Pepper Community (IPC) executive director Firna Azura Ekaputri Marzuki said global oversupply had put pressure on pepper prices in the past several years.

“Following the peak of pepper price in 2015 and 2016, the global pepper production has continuously reported a steady increasing trend which has caused the scale to greatly tip to one side.

“On average, in the past five years,the global pepper production has exceeded 500,000 tonne while the excess stock brought over balance for a five-year calculation (2017-2033) averaging around 175,000 tonnes.

“As a result of the global oversupply of pepper, pepper price has fluctuated with a tendency of decreasing and has prolonged the unfavourable low prices of pepper,” she added in a message to the international pepper community family.

Firna said the imbalance of global pepper supply and demand has put pressure on the economy of the stakeholder of the pepper industry, especially smallholders as they are burdened with a significant high cost of production and relatively low selling prices.

In this regard, she said the need for increasing the global demand for pepper has been of great importance and ought to be seriously taken up by all stakeholders of the pepper community by encouraging more promotional campaigns.

These promotional activities would help to increase pepper consumption both domestically and internationally as well as penetrating more unconventional consuming markets to expand the market.

She said such efforts would help create more opportunities for the advancement and sustainability of the global pepper industry.

Malaysia, the current IPC chair and which is among the top five pepper producer in the world, will host IPC’s 51st annual session and meetings and International Spice Exhibition in Kuching from Nov 6-9 this year.

Firna said the IPC’s 51st annual session has thus chosen “Balancing the global pepper supply and demand – alleviating pressure on prices” as its theme.

The annual session and exhibition will be jointly hosted by the Plantation and Commodities Ministry, Malaysian Pepper Board and IPC.

JACK WONG

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2023/07/24/domestic-pepper-prices-to-continue-rising

Cambodian Pepper trade hit by global downturn

Van Socheata  20 July 2023 

In the first half of 2023, Cambodian pepper exports, encompassing all varieties, hit about 4,300 tonnes. This reflects a drop of over 31 per cent compared to the same period last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.

Ministry spokeswoman Im Rachna attributes the decline to the global economic downturn which has led to a drop in orders for all goods, pepper included.

Market uncertainty, climate change impacting crop yields and quality, and unauthorised exports through Vietnamese and Thai corridors are other contributing factors, she added.

Mak Ny, president of the Cambodian Pepper and Spices Federation (CPSF), noted on July 18 that the decline is linked to the falling market price of pepper despite a normal level of pepper production. This has resulted in some farmers suspending sales and drying the pepper, awaiting a rise in price before selling.

“The challenge isn’t new. The price of pepper dropped post-harvest. As a result, some farmers dried it, anticipating a price increase,” he said.

He added that weather-related challenges have led some farmers to abandon their crops, which could trigger a decline in pepper production this year and the next.

New markets are crucial for Cambodian pepper as it would lure more investors to grow and export pepper to countries beyond Vietnam, he emphasised.

“In ASEAN, Vietnam is a major buyer of Cambodian pepper. However, despite various regional and bilateral free trade agreements, tariff barriers and phytosanitary issues persist,” added Mak Ny.

Nguon Lay, president of the Kampot Pepper Promotion Association, observed that although there’s no official data on pepper exports, he assesses that Kampot pepper exports haven’t fluctuated in the first half, mirroring last year’s trends.

Despite the global crisis, demand for Kampot pepper remains steady, particularly from European buyers.

“Kampot pepper has not encountered significant issues. We have contracts with purchasing companies and export approximately 70 to 80 tonnes annually. The weather did not diminish the quality of the pepper as our farmers are prepared, particularly in managing water supplies in response to climate change,” he said.

However, the high maintenance costs associated with growing Kampot pepper have forced some farmers out of business, reducing the association’s membership from 460 to just over 350 households.

Cambodia exports pepper to a wide range of countries, and pepper is grown in 18 provinces across the nation, including Mondulkiri, Ratanakkiri, Tbong Khmum and Kampot.

https://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/pepper-trade-hit-global-downturn-h1-ministry

A PRELUDE TO CLOVE MARKET 2023-2024

 July 16, 2023

TAMATAVE, Madagascar, 14 July 2023:-
The recent up & down swing in Clove price might have surprised many.
Not every one.
Clove has now become a complete industrial agri commodity. Even though its culinary uses everywhere increasing, but still, its consumption in the kitchen has a limit. Whereas industrial use is doubling up. It is not only Clove, but its various forms like Clove stem, Clove dust, Clove Oil, Clove leaf oil etc has very high industrial demand in the present day world.

A good % of global population use cigarettes; Smokers are not rare. But many smokers [and non-smokers also] may not be knowing the massive use of Clove in cigarettes. Of course, it is limited to Indonesia. Indonesian "Kretek" cigarettes [unfiltered cigarettes made of tobacco, clove and other flavours] uses more than 120,000 Mt clove every year - and thereby the world's biggest user of Clove.

Indian requirement - which is the single 2nd largest consumer in the world - after Indonesia - is yearly 26,000 Mt. See the difference of quantity consumed between the 1st biggest consumer and 2nd biggest consumer ! There is no other single country in this world consuming so much quantity of Clove.

Because of this, India and Indonesia are the two strong destinations who decide Clove price. Among this, Indonesia's role in price fixing is limited, as Indonesia is the world's largest producer of Clove with almost 140,000 Mt annually. Therefore, Indonesian cigarette companies gets their full requirement indigeniously - well from within Indonesia. Thereby, usually, there was no need for Indonesia to import cloves.

However, recently in last 2 years, scenario changed. Indonesian clove production declined, and it is reported last two years, its production was below 100,000 Mt, thereby making the cigarette companies to import clove from either Brazil or Africa. And in 2022 and 2023, again clove production declined in Indonesia, and it became inevitable for Indonesia to import around 25,000 Mt clove from Africa and Brazil. And it is reported from Indonesia that during 2023-2024, Indonesia cigarette companies might be forced to import 30,000 to 40,000 Mt for their use.

During 2022 and early 2023, reports from Singapore Traders reveals that Indonesia imported full quantity of Clove from Zanzibar, and 40% of Comoros Clove, and more than 5000 Mt from Madagascar as well; and many traders in Singapore even now carrying stock with them on the hope of import by cigarette companies. The recent upside price movement in African origins and Indian market as well as Dubai market substantiate this reports, and the demand of Indonesia. In Madagascar, the local sale price moved from Ariary 30,000 per kg to Ariary 33,000 and then to 36,000 and further jumped to 38,000, and even people firmly asking for Ariary 40,000 per kg. This uptrend was followed in India also, where local whole sale market moved from INR 750 a Kg to 820 a kg and then to 860 a kg and finally reached INR 980 a Kg. Retail market [in grocery shops and super markets] in India jumped to even INR 2000 per kg ! In Dubai market, local whole sale marked moved from AED 33 to 36-38 level a kg. International market, which was around USD 8300 per MT on CNF basis, moved to USD 9800 per MT and crossed USD 10,000 also. Indonesia at a time quoted to the export market USD 10,400 also. But price above USD 10,000 could not sustain, and it dipped. On an average, one can see, international price was stable at around USD 9500 to USD 9800 per Mt.

However, in July 2023, surprising the whole market, the price line took a downside U Turn ! The cigarette companies in Indonesia stopped their purchase, and news came out that cigarette companies have enough stock in their custody for next six months consumption; and they are not in a hurry to import at higher price levels. Based on this news, Singapore traders, who were holding stock for the cigarette companies demand, started selling off their stock to Indian market, and they sold to Mumbai Vashi market even at USD 9600--9650 per MT, when international market was at a level of USD 9800 per MT !! Similar reduced offers were given to Dubai market as well. This reduced price offer by singapore traders to India created a panic in local Indian market also. In Indian local market, price dipped by INR 80 to 120 on a Kg. Dubai market witnessed dip of AED 1 to 1.5 on a kg. And whole sale market - from Indonesia offers came down to USD 9300 and USD 9000 also [but only one or two isolated offer at 9000 level] Madagascar offered USD 8900 -8800 on the down side; but in Madagascar majority of sellers kept away from the market. This was because of resistance from Farmers and Collectors in selling their stock to exporters. Both farmers and collectors/ stockists after tasting the higher price level, were holding back to demanding those higher levels and availability in the terminal market was low.

What could be possibilities in the new harvest season in 2023 ? All origins - Africa and Indonesia - crop is delayed. Comoros - the first harvest to come from Africa, normally in July, is delayed and now expected only by mid August. In Indonesia, July-August harvest is reported only half of normal harvest. Reports from farmers in growing islands says, many clove trees have no flower or buds, and no crop possible from such trees, thereby reducing total harvest quantity. Zanzibar is another African origin. As Zanzibar is monopoly by Govt Trading Corporation, and private exporters are not allowed there, we need to depend on Govt reports only. Like in 2022-2023 happened, this year - 2023-2024 also, Zanzibar State Trading Corporation is looking to make contract with single party for its whole quantity ! thereby restricting other buyers to enter. [In 2022-2023, Zanzibar Corporation sold its full quantity to a single trader from Singapore in one shot through a single sales contract.] From these, what we could derive ? what we could read for future? What would be guiding lines for the future market ?

Yes of course, as in the case of any industrial commodity, Clove also follows both fundamental and technical market equations. Clove price is also judged from both fundamental and technical factors. These days, some technicial factors influence fundamental factors !! That is the worst scenario in Clove, because of its limited sources, but massive spread consumer market. Fundamental factors are normal economic indicators - supply and demand is the prime; and FOREX is the second; Mind set of buyers and consumers and/or Sentiments of importers and consumers are also becoming fundamental factors as mind set and sentiments determine demand. What are technical factors influencing the market? - Market making, Speculation and Cycle Trading - which is manipulated factors and man created factors. It becomes technical as it directs Price Curve. When you look at Price chart, you can see price movements, zig-zags all goes with man made market making and speculative purchase and sale and stock holding coupled with cycle trading.

Fundamentally, during harvest season price has to come down. Openings must happen at lower levels. No doubt about it. How far lower possible to open - that is the only question to look for answer !. Will it go down as low as in previous years harvest period ? or will it remain in mid point considering the speculative demand ?

My personal view is that, only a traders perspective, no claim on guarantee, Clove price has to come down in August, September, October months. All harvesting origin may open lower only. Might be possible to open in and around USD 7000 or bit lower. We could have a more firm view on price opening during second half of August 2023. We need to wait and see that time.

Singapore has good carry over stock now. In India also sufficient carry over stock remains in the hands of many traders and stockists. There is no shortage of crop in the market. In Dubai also more than 400 Mt stock available. In MAdagascar, old stock is available plenty. If one not looks at color of the stock, then enough quantity is available in Madagascar. However, when new crop comes to the market, definitely traders would book new crop quantity. Fundamentally, price would come down only. Market making and speculative activities can hold the market temporarily upside for a short period. I do not think, like in Steel industry, or in Sugar industry - in Clove industry, there is no that much money muscle power people to carry on the market on higher side for a longer period. Therefore, fundamental factors must rule over speculative technical factors, and market would come down to real market terms.

Let us wait for second half August 2023 to have more news and see market vibrants in more detail. Till then, I wish all my followers and readers and good time of trading, and healthy reading of the market. For any personalised advice, please free to reach me  email gkumarks@gmail.com

GIRISH KUMAR K S

Gently offered by Ms Sandra Braz from Braco Trade Ltda

JUST A REMINDER
WE STILL HAVE SOME LOTS OF PINK PEPPER 2023 TO OFFER
CALL US IN ORDER TO ASSURE YOURS !

Vietnam pepper market update 10th July 2023 – Week 27.

 

In June 2023, Vietnam exported 21,209 tons of all kinds of pepper, 18,545 tons of black pepper, 2,664 tons of white pepper. Total export turnover reached 77.1 million USD, black pepper reached 63.8 million USD, white pepper reached 13.3 million USD, compared to May, the export volume decreased by 26.3%, the turnover decreased by 14.5%. The average export price of black pepper in June reached 3,440 USD/ton, white pepper reached 4,975 USD/ton, down 100 USD for black pepper and 48 USD for white pepper compared to the previous month.

Guatemala Allspice Pimiento Update

This weekend we received an update from our good supplier in Guatemala regarding next crop Allspice Pimiento

7/9/23 7:57 PM

We anticipated that the size of the 2023 crop would be slightly larger than the crop in 2022. However, the region has been affected by dry and hot weather (possible El Niño), leading us to revise our expectations. As a result, we now predict that this year's crop will be either equal to or slightly smaller than the previous one.

Additionally, El Niño has caused a slight delay in the crop's harvest. Nevertheless, in Guatemala, the crop has just begun. We have already started purchasing small quantities and hope to increase our purchasing volume in the coming weeks as more cargo starts to come out.

On the other hand, Honduras has already started buying Allspice from Guatemala, taking it to Honduras and exporting it with the origin labeled as Honduras.

As mentioned earlier, we are in the early stages of the crop, but we are observing significant interest and demand from customers, local speculators and exporters. These factors and the anticipation of a smaller crop have contributed to the initiation of Allspice prices at higher levels.

Since we are still at the beginning of the harvest, it is essential to exercise caution. Our indication for premium clean 2023 Allspice from Guatemala (not FAQ quality) is at USD 8.50/kg CIF.

We have already started accepting orders, and they will be processed on a first-come, first-serve basis at these price levels.

Please feel free to reach out to us for any further inquiries or to place your orders.

The 51st Annual Session and Meetings of IPC and International Spice Exhibition

 

Dear International Pepper Community Family,

The International Pepper Community (IPC) holds regular Session and Meetings yearly which is hosted by the IPC member country on a rotation basis. Each member country is represented by a delegate with plenipotentiary authority to the Session. This year, the 51st Annual Session and Meetings of IPC and International Spice Exhibition (51st IPC ASM ISE) will be hosted by the Government of Malaysia and jointly organized by the Ministry of Plantation and Commodities (MPC), Malaysian Pepper Board (MPB) and IPC at Pullman Hotel Kuching, Sarawak, Malaysia from 6 - 9 November 2023.

As such, IPC take upon the theme of "Balancing the Global Pepper Supply and Demand - Alleviating Pressure on Prices" for the 51st Annual Sessions and Meetings of the International Pepper Community. The 51st ASM ISE is expected to be one of the largest ever conferences of the International Pepper Community.

Don't miss out this opportunity and I hope to see you in Kuching, Sarawak soon!

#togetherwearestronger

REGISTER NOW

Thank you and kind regards.