Việt Nam's pepper inventory for 2024 is estimated the lowest level

 

 November 13, 2023       

HÀ NỘI — Việt Nam's pepper output of the 2022-2023 crop has all been exported, so the amount of pepper inventory for 2024 will be the lowest level in recent years, according to Việt Nam Pepper Association. 

Việt Nam's pepper export volume in 2023 is expected to reach 250,000 tonnes, including volume from import and inventory from the previous year. 

The average export price in the first 10 months of 2023 reached $3,553 per tonne of black pepper, and $5,082 per tonne of white pepper.

The export price of black pepper in October, 2023  reached 3,664 USD/ton, White pepper reached 5,211 USD/ton,

Hoàng Thị Liên, chairwoman of the Việt Nam Pepper Association, said that despite difficult market conditions, the industry has achieved good export performance in the first 10 months of this year. 

In the last months of the year, the exports could depend on the amount of inventory carried over from previous years. 

The association forecasts that global pepper output in the 2023-2024 crop is stimated to decrease. 

However, the reduction in volume is still lower than the decrease in global consumption demand, so it is forecast that pepper price is unlikely to increase continuously in the long term, according to the association.

The domestic businesses also estimate that Việt Nam's output in the 2023-2024 pepper crop will decrease by about 10-15 per cent to 160,000-165,000 tonnes. 

Excluding China, the upcoming consumption demand of countries around the world may decline due to the impact of the economic crisis resulting from the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts. The world economic recession decreases purchasing power in the future.

Besides that, consumption of major markets, including the US and EU - key export markets of Việt Nam, are unlikely to recover in the short term.

Analysts estimate that next year's output is expected to decrease in India by 20 per cent, Indonesia by 20-30 per cent, Việt Nam by 15 per cent, and Brazil by 15 per cent.

Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry and Trade's Import-Export Department, forecasts that Việt Nam's pepper exports will remain at a low level because the domestic supply is no longer abundant and consumption demand in the US and EU markets has not really improved. 

At present, the amount of exported pepper originating from Việt Nam has run out. The total amount of inventory and import is about 80,000 tonnes, including the inventory of about 30,000 tonnes. 

In the last months of this year, the enterprises will export the imported and pre-existing inventory pepper with a volume of about 50,000 tonnes. 

In the long term, Việt Nam's pepper supply is forecast to be in short supply due to fierce competition from other crops such as durian and passion fruit, according to the association. 

Liên said that if the cutting of pepper trees for growing fruit trees is prolonged, Việt Nam may face a pepper supply shortage in three years. That may cause farmers to miss out on trading at high prices.

Exports in 10 months

China was Việt Nam's largest pepper export market with a volume of 57,723 tonnes in the first 10 months of 2023, accounting for 25.8 per cent of the total export, according to preliminary statistics of the Việt Nam Pepper Association.

The volume rose by 265.3 per cent over the same period of last year. 

However, China's import volume in recent months tended to decrease after purchasing enough pepper volume in the first two quarters of the year.

The US was Việt Nam's second largest pepper export market with 42,600 tonnes, accounting for 19.1 per cent of the total and declining by 6.3 per cent over the same period.

Meanwhile, Europe occupied 19 per cent of the total exports, decreasing by 4.8 per cent over the same period.

The pepper exports also declined by 8.5 per cent to 10,538 tonnes to India, and 29.8 per cent to 10,025 tonnes to UAE market over the same period. 

However, the two markets of Turkey and France recorded a sharp increase in pepper exports of 69.7 per cent and 31.1 per cent, reaching 3,900 tonnes and 3,097 tonnes, respectively. 

Other markets had high growth in pepper exports included the African market (up 9.9 per cent), Egypt (30.1 per cent), South Africa (10.5 per cent) and Senegal (35.6 per cent).

The association reported that in October 2023, Việt Nam exported 19,193 tonnes of pepper, earning $72.7 million. The figures rose by 15.4 per cent in volume and 17.3 per cent in value. 

The average export price in October 2023 reached $3,664 per tonne of black pepper, and $5,211 per tonne of white pepper.

In the first 10 months, Việt Nam exported 223,578 tonnes of pepper, including 200,571 tonnes of black pepper and 23,007 tonnes of white pepper.

Total export turnover reached $750.8 million, including $640.2 million of black pepper and $110.6 million of white pepper.

Việt Nam gained an increase of 14.6 per cent in volume but a reduction of 11.7 per cent in value compared to the same period last year.

The average export price in the 10 months of 2023 reached $3,553 per tonne of black pepper, and $5,082 per tonne of white pepper. They declined by 17.6 per cent for black pepper and 15.6 per cent for white pepper compared to the same period last year.

Leading Exporters this year

Nedspice was the largest pepper export enterprise in 10 months with a volume of 15,462 tonnes, an increase of 8.5 per cent over the same period in 2022.

Some other leading export enterprises under the Việt Nam Pepper Association, included Olam Việt Nam (15,326 tonnes); Pearl (14,144 tonnes); Phúc Sinh (12,720 tonnes) and Haprosimex JSC (9,015 tonnes). — VNS

Complied by Hoàng Hà
November 13, 2023     

           

Brazil Pepper Pricing Overview

Brazil Pepper Pricing Overview

Affected by the depreciation of the Brazilian real against the US dollar, pepper offers continue to be more attractive  with domestic raw material prices that was last seen at  13,50 BRL/kg from ES and about 12,5 BRL/kg from Para region. 

Brazil Pepper Plant Production 

Brazilian farmers are deeply concerned about the lack of  rain affecting dying plants which Para region have reported recently.

The drought weather condition described now as “the worse the state has ever seen’’ is very alarming and  could certainly lead to pepper plant high percentage failure  rate affecting the next incoming production volume.

Year-Over-Year (YOY) First 10 Months BR Export Volume

Brazil managed to export about 7,376 tons for the month of October bringing a total of about 65K tons for the first ten (10) months of the year which is down by about 6% when compared to last year’s same period recorded. 

Vietnam still the top importer from Brazil at about 13,7k  tons, followed by UAE at 6,1k ton, Morocco at 5,4k tons,  Senegal at 5,2k tons, Pakistan at 5,1k tons. 

Both Vietnam and UAE were seen with a low import percentage of about 12% and 18% respectively when compared to last year’s import volume recorded. 

Pepper Market Report Week 44 – 2023

 

As market struggles to find support overseas, Vietnam was reportedly seen with a decline last week by 1,4% for raw material. However, over the weekend, China reappears prompting market to firm up a bit at today’s opening. Exporters remain on a sideline as USA and EU demands are still elusive for spot coverings as most seems to be eyeing now for new crop next year.

Indonesia – speculators last week are in a market to sell as prices also are seen softening a bit with depreciating local currency that has been beaten by negative sentiments since last month. But then Muntok stock position is not that promising, with a volume that could be just good enough for local consumption. 

Brazil although price is supportive compared to others, origin’s current state is not sitting well. The country is now in midst of experiencing severe drought in history due to lack of rain. It is much worser in Amazonas as its port Manaus had dried the water to even allow ships to dock. Para’s crop reporting crop failure and although ES is still surviving, the domino effect of the whole situation very soon can cause more shipment delays and cancellation which these days has been a dilemma by almost all exporters. 

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The 51st Annual Sessions and Meeting of the IPC

 

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Brazil Pepper Pricing Overview

 

Brazil still seen stable over the past few weeks with local currency that is under depreciation pressure over US dollars Brazil's real BRL, fell between 0.3% and 0.7%. Though in a good note, exporters’ woes with the rising production and shipping cost for Pepper could balance out the market pricing. 

Brazil Pepper Plant Production
Espírito Santo as the epicenter of pepper production reportedly seen with plants dying due to weather condition with the degree of the damage that is still unknown. On the other hand, Pará harvest reportedly plummeted by about 20%, due to high temperatures and lack of rain.

Brazil Pepper September Export
Brazil exported about 7,244 tons of pepper for the month of September, with about 57,652 tons export volume for the first nine (9) months of the year which is 4% lower as compared to last year’s same period covered.

Brazil Pepper Export Destinations
Vietnam still a top importer of Brazil Pepper, managing to import about 11,867 tons from Q1-Q3, down by about 9% compared to last year same period. UAE, top two importer at 5,464 tons, down by about 19% from last year as well.

Germany and USA both import volume dropped down by about 60% and 92% respectively owing to the stricter import regulation due to Salmonella issue.

This report is part of  
RGT Pepper Market Report – October 2023
Royal Golden Trading 2023. All Rights Reserved.

Vietnam market update 16th Oct 2023 – Week 41.

 

From January 1 to September 30, 2023, Vietnam exported 204,385 tons of pepper, of which black pepper reached 183,475 tons, white pepper reached 20,910 tons.

Total export turnover reached 678.1 million USD, black pepper reached 578.2 million USD, white pepper reached 99.9 million USD.

Compared to the same period in 2022, export volume increased by 15.3%, equivalent to 27,164 tons, however export turnover decreased by 13.4%, equivalent to a decrease of 104.5 million USD.
The average export price of black pepper in the first 9 months of 2023 reached 3,539 USD/ton, white pepper reached 5,068 USD/ton, down 15.3% for black pepper and 14.2% for white pepper respectively over the same period 2022.

 

Pepper Market Report by Royal Golden - Week 39 – 2023

 

Amid gloomy demand overseas, market remained relatively stable for Vietnam. Reported small volume of buying activities for prompt needs from Asian buyers occurred over the week. 

While other major importing countries who still are seen indecisive to take positions are reportedly on a sideline waiting for selling pressure to take place.

Muntok with a slight decline last week, it is seen stable today with its very limited supply owing to crop failure that export volumes are also hugely suffering.

Brazil stable to firm with active demand from Asian buyers. Q4 at its peak season, this origin is experiencing shortage for empty containers with some carriers rolling cargo due to high volume of shipments. Reported vessel utilization at a very healthy level (90-95%) prompting freight rates to be seen moving at an upward direction.