Black Gold which was neglected and depressed by recession news and macro economic news in the last 5 working days have become the center of attraction once again.
With Vietnam selling off almost everything in the first seven months of the year fearing National Commodity Exchange ( Ncdex) who have taken their trousers off last year did not wait for higher prices sold almost everything they have and now bewildered.
Indonesia who were almost spoiling the party for second half of the year suddenly came to their senses and increased the asking prices very close to Indiam levels.
Malayasia has become an importer of both black and white pepper from Vietnam quitely and marketing as Sarawak Black and Sarawak white to their predominant markets like Japan ,Korea and Taiwan was totally keeping away from major consuming markets like USA and European Union..
India the traditional cheer leader for the first time has become a follower of Vietnam this year and now took the lead in exciting global pepper cultivators, traders and speculators keeping aside pepper exporters and traditional pepper traders always complaining about the poor and backbone less regulator of futures trading FMC..
They just don't know whats the literal meaning of regulation according to Keralla farmers and traders of black pepper.and have made the national exchange a gamblers den and money laundering platform.
According to Ms Yuliani of Putrabali Indonesia every origin has become manipulators and it has become impossible to do any business these days although markets have moved up quite a bit..
When contacted All India Spices Exporters forum vice chairman and the largest exporter of Indian pepper was kind enough to give us his estimate of stocks lying in different origins before the next new crops of India and Vietnam:
Indonesia exportable 5000 mt; Vietnam 40000 mt against just 15000 mt as claimed by some section of the media; 25000 mt from Brazil and 5000 mt from India which includes 2000 mt lying in the national exchanges and balance with farmers/traders.
The stocks of exporters cannot be taken as it is already sold in the national exchanges because of the attractive prices at which you can sell only in India and nowhere in the world.
Current prices of Asta pepper in different origins
Brazil 2700 fob belem
Indonesia usd 2850 fob Panjang
Vietnam usd 3050- 3100 fob hcmc
India Mg-1 asta usd 3050- 3100 fob Cochin
Sarawak Asta usd 3200 fob kuching
Think twice before you leap as some major players feel that it is overdone and not much to the north as industries are taken care by global traders and its their patience which has to be tested and not the industries
Rgds
La Rive
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