Sunday, August 09, 2009

J La Rive discuss teh article "Pepper ends the day extremely firm"

Please find below some comments on selected points of the article Pepper ends the day extremely firm published below

ARTICLE: Pepper ends the day extremely firm here in India with prices soaring to a 12 month high.
COMMENT: Yes True


A - Markets moving on bullish fundamentals and higher outside support, spill over strength from other commodities apparently lending very good support.
C - Market moving only on speculative buying in the Ncdex and there is virtually no internal or external buying support. Spill over from other commodities yes because the platform is designed as a casino.

A - The charge in pepper is led by the lack of sellers on the spot market which continues to spiral on the back of very firm future deliveries and very good buying interest.
C - There are sellers in spot market and takers are very few other than investors who are buying spot and selling future deliveries at a killing differnce from spot to future sept deliveries.

A - Prices on the future deliveries hit the 3 % circuit and closed at the day’s high.
Tight supply conditions continue for spot pepper which is being sought after by domestic traders in particular.
C - There is Plenty supply now as the prices have moved up and it will continue for some more time as many traders and stockists who were caught with inventories between inr 135-140 last year are coming out to get rid of the stocks and convert into Cash


A - Lower volumes in trade hitting the spot scene with most traders not excited with the rise in prices, since much of pepper has already been out of their hands as of now.
Higher markets from other origins act as a spark to fuel the upward surge
C
- For how long ? as speculators wont pick up physical deliveries and next week itself we will see a big sell off and prices dropping like 9 pins

A - Indian MG I ASTA grade parity at $ 3100 / 3125 PMT FOB Cochin
C - But who cares indian parity ??
Rgds
La Rive

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