VIETNAM - a preliminary survey of inventory situation and forecast next year's pepper crop

Through a preliminary survey of inventory situation and forecast next year's pepper crop, we would like to give you some information in the main material areas for references as follows;

1 / Daklak (38,616 hectares) & Daknong (36,300 hectares);
- The total area of these two provinces are 74,916 hectares – occupy around 50% Vietnam's pepper area (148.744 hectares as previous report)
- Due to favorable weather and pepper vines are in the good shape period (new pepper planting from 2013 to 2015), the expected output 2020 will increase by over 10% compared with 2019.
- Total pepper area is almost unchanged because farmers continuing to cultivate/plant new trees to take place of dead pepper vines.

2 / Dong Nai Province (19,022 hectares) & Ba Ria Vung Tau (13,161 hectares);
- These are the two provinces adjacent Ho Chi Minh City, so land prices have increased rapidly since 2017/2018. Many locations increased from 2 to 6 times within 1 - 2 years. Many farmers have sold their pepper plantation or converted their land purpose such as; building factories/warehouses/ for renting... The total area of pepper cultivation is expected to decrease by at least 20%.

3 / Binh Phuoc Province (17,178 hectares);
- Planting area has little change but the weather supporting for new crop. However, due to low prices, farmers did not focus on pepper cultivation as before.

4 / Gia Lai Province (16,267 hectares)
- Since 2017, the pepper plantation of Gia Lai province has continuously decreased sharply due to farmers' inexperience in pepper cultivation, a lot of pepper was dead but farmers could not cultivate another pepper tree due to soil in serious disease and the weather did not support pepper plants in this province.
- Previously, Gia Lai was the pepper capital of Vietnam due to the hot development but now many farmers/collectors… are facing worse financially situation such as; have to sell land/their house/ pepper plantation to pay loans from the bank, black credit ...
- It is expected that production will be decreased by 60% in the next crop and likely pepper crop in Gia Lai province not possible to recover in the next few years.

5/ Another 8,200 hectares in 17 diffirent area;
- 8.200 hectares scattered in many different provinces with constant natural conditions, we temporarily assess the output is similar compared to 2019.


Summary;
- Total output declines in most areas in Vietnam. Only Daklak and Daknong, production is expected continue to increase due to favorable weather conditions, pepper is in a healthy phase although farmers reduce fertilization/pesticides. Currently, these two provinces occupy 50% of Vietnam's pepper area but total production will around 60% - 65% at least in the next crop 2020.

- Although pepper prices now has decreased roughly 25% compared to January 2019, farmers in key areas still suppose pepper as a major agricultural and they could not convert to another agriculture product in nearest future.

- In most of the surveyed farmers/collectors/speculators, there are still has a lot of inventories, even inventories from 2017. Many different forecasts on specific numbers but we will not be surprised if carry over this year is above 70 - 80.000 metric tones. This is also an impact on raw material prices in the coming year.

- Expected Daksong district of Daknong province will be harvested during second half of December 2019. The main crop of Vietnamese pepper remains unchanged after Lunar New Year in February & March 2020.

- Vietnamese pepper quality is improving due to price now very low, almost farmers have to reduce fertilizer, not use pesticides to reduce their production costs.

- The total cultivated area may be reduced from 10% - 15% and crop size maybe reach around 250 – 270.000 metric tones in 2020.

- Price now very attractive and maybe continue come down in peak season next crop, however, the importer/buyers not much risky like before. My own opinion stockpile should be under consideration.

We will continue to update crop/inventory if any changes.

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