#BLACKPEPPER -IPC MARKET REPORT

No. 07/20, 10 - 14 February 2020

MARKET REPORT
Market this week showed a mixed response with a rather negative outlook as only India origin was reported with an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,382 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,753 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,141 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper were traded domestically with a 2% and 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,820 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,239 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, the ongoing harvest season in Viet Nam pushed Viet Nam black pepper to be traded with a 2% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,597 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,410 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2, 916 per Mt.
International market followed similar trend in local market as only India recorded an increase. India was reported trading its Malabar black pepper internationally with the same increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,662 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported stable with an average of USD 2,174 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,740 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a greater loss in international market and were traded with a 7%, 6% and 5% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,900 per Mt, USD 2,000 per Mt and USD 3,000 per Mt respectively. The decrease of FOB price in Viet Nam could be contributed to China demand in recent week was static and it has an impact due to Viet Nam was the biggest supplier for China pepper market.
The Lunar New Year holiday which was followed immediately by the devastating outbreak of the Corona Virus have china market in the past 5 weeks were reported inactive as no business took place. Reports coming in from Hainan stating that people remain in their house and refraining from going out.

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IPC MARKET REPORT No. 01/20, 30 Dec. 2019 - 03 Jan 2020

LOCAL MARKET
Market at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 showed mixed response with only Indonesia and Malaysia origins recorded an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,627 per Mt. In local currency, Malabar black pepper was traded at an average of RS 330 per Kg. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,761 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,091 per Mt. The increase of Indonesia white pepper could be contributed to the increase of the price in local currency which averaging at IDR 43,000 per Kg. Malaysian black and white pepper recorded an increase of 1% respectively at an average of USD 1,860 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,292 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,738 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,626 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper continued to be traded with a deficit and this week by 3% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,607 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,338 per Mt.

INTERNATIONAL MKT
International market showed a rather stable outlook this week with only Indonesia origin recorded an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,907 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,181 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 3,680 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. In international market China was reported steady with an average of USD 4,438 per Mt.

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

IPC MARKET REPORT No. 51/19, 16 - 20 December 2019

LOCAL MARKET
Market this week showed mixed responses with India and Viet Nam origins recorded with an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,746 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,750 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,035 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper was traded negatively with 1% and 2% decreases respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,840 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,258 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 1,764 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,626 per Mt. After the continuous increasing trend lately, Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with marginal decrease and was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,822 per Mt. In the past four weeks China white pepper was continuously reported with a deficit and this week it was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,350 per Mt.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET
International market reacted rather stable this week with only India recorded an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 5,027 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,167 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,616 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable at an average of USD 2,330 per Mt, USD 2,395 per Mt and USD 3,480 per Mt respectively. In international market China was reported with a higher deficit by 3% as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 4,450 per Mt.

IPC MARKET REVIEW - November 2019

During the course of 11 years, spot price on New York markets fluctuated and was reported to firstly spike up in November 2011 with USD 8,556 per Mt for black pepper and USD 12,922 per Mt for white pepper which then followed with decreasing trend which lasted for 3 year. The spot price on New York market then started to gradually increase in the middle of 2013 until it peaked in July 2015 and recorded the highest price in history of the pepper industry with USD 11,333 per Mt for black pepper and USD 16,496 per Mt for white pepper. Following the peaked in July 2015, the spot prices of black and white pepper gradually decreased and lasted longer, compared with the previous trend, until the present time with USD 2,977 per Mt for black pepper and USD 5,072 per Mt for white pepper recorded in July 2019. Furthermore, in the course of 11 years the lowest spot price was reported in March 2009 with USD 2,568 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,025 per Mt for white pepper (Chart 10).

The shift in the stretching of the decreasing trend of pepper price in the past few years could be contributed to the significant increase of stock in the global market which imbalance with the demand for pepper. By the end of 2019, the global production of pepper is estimated to be 591,946 Mt.

DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT
www.mediafire.com/fi…/ydzut32v004vado/pnmrNov2019A4.pdf/file

TRYING TO UNDERSTAND BLACK PEPPER MARKET

A Client asked me today:

" Why Brazilian Black Pepper has been cheaper then Vietnam for such long time ?
I´ve been in the market for 6 years now and I never seen such situation !"

Well, neither I know.
I´ve been trying to understand the reasons but cannot find a reasonable answers for 2 questions:
Why brazilian pepper had been cheaper for all year long, and
Why Pepper price in general decreased that much in the last seasons ?

Average prices for B1 550g black pepper in 2002 were U$D 1,500/ton
Than in 2006/2007 it started to rise to U$D1,800 /U$R 2,000 / U$D 2,250... ended the 2007 quoted at U$D 3,700
After a relatively smooth 2008 and 2009 it climbed to U$D 4,200 at the end of 2010.
Beginning 2011 it went from U$D4,200 to U$D 7,000 and from then it was always quoted in the range ofU$  7 - 8,000, with a peak of U$D 9,000 in 2015.
In the middle of2017 it started to fall ending the year at U$D 3,600 and now is averaging U$D 2,000 - back to 12 years ago !
If inflation is considered, the present price is even lower that the one of 2002.

WHY ??? What happened to pull the prices to such behaviour ?  And what´s is to come now ???

Therefore I invite you to write a guess about these 2 questions and further try to make a preview for the next year or even more extended. Please write to manager@peppertrade.com.br

The answers for these questions will be published on our blog and FB page, and if you desire we´ll mention your name and mail adress.

Let´s see if we find a consensus

Thank you all
Michail Wagapoff

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