VIETNAM SPICES MARKET UPDATE 17TH AUGUST 2020 – WEEK 34

 

PEPPER
Last week, the pepper market increased about 2% with demand from China and the Middle East. The USA still shows a relatively small demand and only accepts to buy long time shipment orders while almost Vietnam exporters hesitate or withdraw. The EU is on holiday so demand continues to be quiet. We hope the market will be better next time when some countries reopen again.  In addition, Russian have found vaccines/India and the USA are also testing many vaccines in the final stage. Hope everyone/all of the world will be healthy, starting a new business cycle soon.

Current weather in Vietnam; After fluctuating and flooding, the weather is currently well evaluated in key pepper areas such as Daknong & Daklak. Impacts of the 2021 pepper crop are likely to be low in these two key provinces. We will send more information after the survey next October.

 Indonesia; According to the information received, the heavy rain and flood took place on a large scale, so the crop heavily affected both black and white pepper. Currently Indonesian prices are at a very high level with a reference price of $ 2,550 – 2,650 LASTA and $ 4,150 for FAQ white pepper.

 Brazil; Currently, it still offers competitively, but mainly delivered in quarter 4/2020

 

CASSIA
Heavy rain and flooding happen in the largest cinnamon area in Vietnam. Therefore, the harvest for the 2020 crop is affected and the price of cinnamon is likely to remain stable as demand from EU/USA/India/Bangladesh still supports the market.

 

STAR ANISE
The amount of inventory is still tight. The price is expected to be stable or increase in the coming time.

 

 

 

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VIETNAM PEPPER SITUATION AUGUST 2020

 

17^TH AUGUST 2020

In the first 7 months, Vietnam exported 186,160 tons of pepper (166,669 tons of black pepper, 19,491 tons of white pepper).

First half of August, Vietnam exported 7,215 tons of pepper and is forecast to reach at least 15,000 tons in August bringing the total pepper exports to 201,160 tons (180,169 tons of black pepper and 20,991 tons of white pepper).

Thus, we can have a rough look at the export pepper data of 8 months of 2020 as follows;

 

- Exported 180,169 tons of black pepper (1)

- Exported 20,991 tons of white pepper (2)

- Loss weight when processing white pepper 25%; 6,997 tons (3)

- Domestic consumption; 8 - 10,000 tons annually (4)

- Loss weight when processing ground pepper is about 5%; 1,000 tons (5)

 

Total exported and domestic consumption… in the first 8 months 2020 as;

 

(1) + (2) + (3) + (4) + (5) = 219,157 tons (X)

 

As many source and reports from the beginning/middle of this year from Exporter/Processor/IPC/VPA…;

 

- Carry over 2020 is about 20%. Estimated at 80,000 tons (a)

- Crop size 2020; from 230 - 245,000 tons (b)

- Imported from Brazil/Indonesia/Cambodia; 30,000 tons (c)

 

Therefore, the total quantity expected to be used for export 2020 remains;

 

(a) + (b) + (c) = 355,000 tons (Y)

 

So in theory, then;

 

1.      Quantity of pepper used for export for next 4 months from September to December (excluding carry over last year (a) 80,000 tons) as below;

 

(b) + (c) - X = 245,000 + 30,000 - 219,157 = 55,843 tons.

 

This number is easily achieved in the last 4 months of 2020 and certainly the inventories of the previous years will gradually reduce. The total crop size of Vietnam pepper 2020 is not enough for export. It’s quite reflective upon the situation after 5 years back as from 2016.

 

2.      However, if including inventory of 80,000 tons (a), the total quantity will be used for export for next 4 months from September to December as below;

 

(Y) - (X) = 355,000 - 219,157 = 135,843 tons.

 

Thus, the total quantity used for export is plentiful because next 4 months definitely the total quantity to export can not exceed 70.000 tons . However, please note; the inventory for pepper in Vietnam is at 15 - 20% in every year. It is considered to be largely frozen inventory and its concentrate to exporters, middleman and rich farmers stock. These inventories are less pressured to sell if the price is not attractive enough (lower than inventory price – maybe very high).

 

Note; The data above is our research and it’s for reference only because the statistical tool has many shortcomings and limitations.

*This report made and presented by the

 

IPC PEPPER REPORT No. 31/20, 27 - 31 July 2020

LOCAL MARKET 

As the Moslem around the world celebrates the Eid Al-Adha Mubarak 1441 H amid the global pandemic of Corona Virus, Market this week showed mixed response with a rather positive outlook as only Viet Nam origin recording a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,122 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 8% and 5% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,193 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,426 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the increase of demand as well as the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,593 @ USD 1), an appreciation by 1% recorded. Malaysia black and white peppers in local market were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,301 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,655 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with 3% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,970 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,745 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a significant increase of 8% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,858 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.

INTERNATIONAL  MARKET

International market was reported with a more positive outlook. India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,390 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 7% and 5% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,665 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,044 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,609 per Mt whilst Malaysia white pepper was reported stable. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper as well as China white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged.

US market this week was reported with the increase of price of black as well as white pepper nevertheless buyers held on to source from producing origins. Muntok white pepper for CF August/September was reported at USD 4.600 per Mt.

VIETNAM PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 27TH JULY 2020 – WEEK 31

 

 

Viet Nam
According to preliminary data of Vietnam Customs, pepper exports in June 2020 reached only 20,449 tons, less 9,902 tons, a sharp decrease of 32.62% compared to the previous month and down 10,236 tons, or 33.36% less than the same period last year 2019. The pepper export turnover in June reached $47.17 million, down $13.74 million, or 22.55% down from the May 2020 and down $28.04 million, or 37.28% compared to the same period last year.

Accumulated export volume of pepper in the first 6 months of 2020 reached 166,812 tons, down 10,046 tons, or 5.68% compared to the export volume in the first 6 months of 2019.

The average export price in June 2020 reached $2,306/ton, up 14.95% compared to the average export price of May 2020.

The same export, Vietnam imported a sharp decrease compared with 2019 when total quantity only 14,899 tons of pepper, including 11,283 tons of black pepper and 3,616 tons of white pepper. Compared to the same period in 2019, import volume decreased by 34.3%. Vietnam imports pepper mainly from Brazil, Indonesia and Cambodia. In which, the import from Brazil was 100% black pepper with 5,802 tons, down 34.9%; imports from Indonesia reached 5,528 tons (of which 2,057 tons were black pepper and 3,471 tons were white pepper), down 50.4% over the same period.

Until July 20th, 2020, Vietnam exported 9,942 tons of pepper and is forecast to export 16 - 17,000 tons in this month, bringing the total export volume in the first 7 months reached 183,812 tons (first 7 month 2019 exported 203.737 tons).

Pepper market in week 30^th 2020 has increased slightly by 2% compared to week 29. The main reason is that exporters focus on covering raw material to ensure time shipment has been done before.

In general, demand in week 30^th more than week 29^th when many different countries have gradually increased production again after a long time restrained due to Covid 19 (especially EU/India). Demand is still quite slow but many requests from the EU/US for long shipment orders from Q4/2020 until the end of 2021.

The market is still quite sensitive and the price trend is likely to be quite stable in the near future.

 Brazil
Almost the same previous week when only possible to offer very limited quantities but not for prompt shipment. Delivery time is mostly in September/October as a seller option. We can foresee Vietnam exporters will not be hedging raw material from Brazil from now.

 Indonesia
Currently harvesting but less offered. Prices are still higher than Vietnam both black and white pepper especially muntok white pepper.

IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT No. 30/20, 20 - 24 July 2020

MARKET REPORT
Market this week showed mixed response with Indonesia and Viet Nam origin recording a decrease.
In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,088 per Mt.
Entering the harvest season as well as the slow demand, Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 12% and 5% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,039 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,262 per Mt for white pepper.
Malaysia black and white peppers in local market were reported with an increase of 4% and 2% respectively when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,275 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,626 per Mt for white pepper.
Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,040 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper remained stable and unchanged.
Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 4% as compared to the prev ious week and was traded at an average of USD 2,644 per Mt.
China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. 

INTERNATIONAL MARKET
International market showed a similar trend as the local market. India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 2% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,355 per Mt.
Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 12% and 5% deficit respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,488 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,858 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white peppers were reported stable and unchanged.
Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper as well as China white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged.

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SPICES MARKET UPDATE 6TH JULY 2020 – WEEK 28

PEPPER

Viet Nam

Pepper export in June reached 25.000 tons, valued at 56 million USD, down 17.6% in volume and 8% in value compared with May, 2020. It also decreased by 18.5% in volume and by 25.5% in value compared to June 2019.

The average export price of pepper in June reached 2,240 USD/ton, up 11.6% compared to May, but down 8.6% compared to June 2019.

From January to June 2020, pepper export reached 172.000 tons, value 365 million USD, down 2.9% in volume and 19% in value over the same period in 2019.

In the first 6 months of 2020, the average export price reached 2,127 USD/ton, down 16.6%  compared with the same period in last year 2019.

Market slow since last week with very little demand from overseas customers. Almost kept watching. China/USA/EU customers are very quiet and we have not seen any activities through border trade last week. However, the market is still in uptrend with increased price 50$/ton in week 27. Vietnam exporters/processors covering third quarter shipment in silent.  

Some demand for long time shipment (fourth quarter and 2021 shipment) but we heard all exporters withdraw.

Brazil

The stock very tight and not available for prompt shipment. Price up to firm daily when exporters prefer to cover short and just can offer a few boxes September onwards shipment.

Indonesia

We heard white pepper crop less over 50%. Exporters just offering a few boxes at higher Vietnam price to test market situation.

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VIETNAM MARKET UPDATE 1ST JULY 2020 – WEEK 27

JULY 1st ,  2020

Viet Nam;

The pepper market uptrend again with 45$ increase in the first day of July after falling in the past week. Despite the negative information and lower oversea demand compared to the previous months. However, in June, Vietnamese also exported roughly 24,000 tons, bringing the total pepper exported in the first 6 months of 2020 to reach 171,115 tons (6 months of 2019; 180,276 tons). With the commitment was done, we will not be surprised if the export volume in July, 2020 to reach 18-20,000 tons at least, bringing the total export volume in the first 7 months of 2020 to approximately 190,000 tons. An impressive figure when total production of 2020 pepper crop is assessed to decrease by 15-20% compared to the 2019 crop.

Some other information for reference;

- Export in the last 6 months of 2017 (July to December); 89,529 tons

- Export in the last 6 months of 2018 (July to December);  103,737 tons

- Export in the last 6 months of 2019 (July to December); 106,727 tons

- Let's wait and see how many tons will be exported in the last 6 months of 2020

Although China's demand is currently low, they almost do not participate in pepper much over 5 weeks. However, the current price remains stable and it will be difficult to reduce in the near future due to stock coming too tight. Prices are still low and farmers are not willing to sell more when market correction. If the price is reduced, farmers immediately offer to drip and stop offering.

Brazil;

Currently, Brazil stock finished now and cannot offer immediate shipment. The second crop of Brazil will start in end August/early September, so it can only be offered during September onwards 2020 shipment. However, it is likely that Brazilian exporters have already sold about 15 - 20% of the new crop in advance and will prefer to cover from farmers first instead of continuing to offer further shipment.

Indonesia;

We heard heavy rains and strong wind continuously so maybe delays in harvesting until beginning August. Prices are not attractive to the farmer and the 2020 crop may reduce production. Crop 2020 expected to export is very small with about 17-20,000 tons so farmers/exporters will not hurry to offer.

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VIETNAM - PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 15TH JUNE - WEEK 25

Pepper market week 24 was down in value of about 2.7% due to a collectors in Daksong (main pepper area) which has lost liquidity and unable to pay deeply in debts.

This cause to a lots of farmers/middlemans in a panic and forced to close the consignment of goods at other collectors warehouse to recover cash to avoid the risk of consignment, causing the price to drop quickly by 2.5% in 1-2 days (the material from 55,000 VND has dropped sharply about VND 53,500 as of today).

After the shock reduction, the market seems to have regained its balance and the upward trend/stable continues to be clearly shown by the increasing demand from oversea importers during the past week. Despite difficulties due to Covid - 19, the new price level has been firmly established because good demand from the EU/ASIA market.

Through a quick survey in raw material area, we would like to briefly outline the situation as follows;

-  Vietnam's inventory is still large. However, the current inventory is scattered from many different person such as;

+ Farmer households (estimated to hold 15-20% of inventory). We assess this stock has no selling pressure as it is concentrated among the wealthiest households. Farmers can stockpiling if prices go down. Its as frozen stock already.

+ Top 10 big exporters keeping around 25,000 tons. Other exporters around 10.000 tons more. Total exporters keeping 30,000 - 35,000 tons (We do not know how much quantity has been sold)

+ Four large domestic agents are holding about 20,000 tons at least.

+ Total exported within fitst 5 months 2020 reach 148.000 tons.

Therefore, regardless of the number of pepper crop production in Vietnam 2020, currently total quantity offering for export is not much available in the last 6 months of 2020.

- Its not much difference in the situation of the new crop 2021 such as drought or heavy rain, and there are also favorable weather areas and disadvantages… However, the main point is many farmers neglect and do not take care of pepper plantation as before because the current price is not attractive enough to take care and maintain. This may be the most important reason for a decrease in production in the coming seasons 2021.

We will have more surveys situation in August & another in October. We hope to give more useful and accurate information in the crop year 2020/2021.

Other information for reference;

- Brazil Currency fluctuations are very erratic with large amplitudes. Currently, inventory available for sale was negligible. Almost had to wait for a new crop at Para at the end of August/September.

- Indonesia It is forecasted that the crop size less by 20% and will be harvested by the end of July. Few boxes maybe available for August shipment for testing market.

- India Reopening again after long time lockdown due to Covid 19. India's market demand continues to increase compared to previous months.

- China Continued to participate in the market, but was less than in June due to the complicated situation of Covid-19. However, we expect more demand will coming in the next 1-2 weeks.

- America continued to participate in the market with orders delivered in the second half of 2020.

- Asia/EU We expect increase from the EU when other origin do not have big quantity for immediate shipment.

- Vietnam currency stronger than USD is foreseen.

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VIETNAM - PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 08 JUNE - WEEK 24

The market has fluctuated throughout the week. However, at the end of the week 23, the market is still in an upward trend of nearly 2% from 54,000 VND on 1^st June and remained stable at 55,000 VND today. The domestic collectors continued to offer in small quantities and was hesitant in a tension between many exporters and domestic collectors/middleman.

After the price has changed dramatically in the last 2 weeks, the current price trend has become stronger and set a new price on the market. Oversea customers bought orders and looking for new inquiries in the third and fourth quarters 2020. However, the exporters was very cautious and only offer spot/prompt shipment instead of forwards shipment as before. Vietnam currency is still stronger trend than USD making Vietnam pepper price also higher.

Other information for your reference;

- In 2006; pepper price remained stable from January to May at 860 USD/MT. However, within 3 months, pepper price increased by 115% to 1,850 USD/MT (convert at current exchange rate).

- In 2011; the price of pepper at the beginning of the season was 4,340 USD but by the end of December it reached 7,122 USD. Increased 64%.

- In 2013 & 2014; the pepper prices at the beginning of the season reached 6,281 USD but increased 48% to 9,315$ in December.

2020;  Pepper prices still were at a loss for many farmers in this crop, a lot of farm households cut their pepper trees and converted other agriculture product. Currently, prices with increasing tendency have also stimulated farmers to take more care in their pepper plantation. However, the drought situation and many farmers who have changed to another product/cut their plantation not only in Vietnam but also other countries such as Indonesia/Brazil/Cambodia…We have a forecast that total crop production in 2021 will be significantly affected.

We will have a tour to survey the situation of pepper crop 2020 again from June 9 to June 17, 2020 and we will try to collect information to update you with the details in July.

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INDIAN PEPPER PRICES MAY MOVE UP ON GLOBAL TREND

 June 05, 2020

 China’s increased buying has pushed up the global pepper prices, especially in Vietnam and Indonesia, while the rates in India have seen only a marginal improvement. Domestic growers, who have not benefited from the global price trend are hoping to see higher realisations on the anticipated pick-up in demand with the easing of the lockdown.

Prices have registered double-digit increases in Vietnam and Indonesia over the past one month, while in India it went up by 1.8 per cent. According to the International Pepper Community, Vietnam prices rose 18.54 per cent at $2621 per tonne on June 4 from $2211 in May 4. Likewise, Indonesian prices also posted 14.12 per cent increase from $2088 to $2383. However, Indian prices witnessed only a marginal rise at 1.8 per cent from $4,354 to $4,434. “So far, the Indian growers have not really benefited from the recent global price rise. However, we are hoping that prices would move up in the next few weeks with a likely pick-up in demand from North India after the easing of lockdown,” said MC Kariappa, Chairman of Kodagu Planters Association. Farm gate prices have moved up from around ₹290-300 levels two months ago to around ₹315-317 per kg.

High production cost

Kishore Shamji, Coordinator of Indian Pepper, Spice Traders, Growers Consortium-Kerala Chapter, said the Indian prices, which is hovering above $4,000, is already on the higher side due to high domestic demand equivalent to production. The higher prices have benefited farmers, but the high production cost is posing a problem. The cost of production can be reduced by improving productivity.

India is expecting 60,000 tonnes of production as against 55,000 tonnes last year. It is the intrinsic value of Indian pepper that brought selected buyers from the US, Canada, and Europe, who have special preference for Malabar Black Pepper or Tellicherry Garbled Extra Bold or Malabar Tellicherry Special Extra Bold, he added.

“It cannot be said that the prices of low quality pepper are rising in the international market. The prices that have dropped to $1,800 are now recovering as China becomes active and starts buying as much as the US does,” Shamji said.
However, the high piperine content of Sri Lankan pepper, which is above 10 per cent, has made the commodity from the island nation a preferred choice for the spices extraction industry after paying a premium price.

Price rise in Vietnam

Prakash Namboothiri, former president of All India Spices Exporters Forum, noted that the Vietnam pepper prices have witnessed a spike due to high buying from China and other markets because of a jump in business activities in the post-Covid situation. The Indian prices are already at 50-60 per cent higher levels than Vietnam. However, there has been a decent pick-up in Indian prices in the last couple of days.
According to him, the global pepper market last week saw some fluctuations as some speculators booked profits when the price has reached the expectation. However, the price has still increased 13.4 per cent within a week from May 25 to 31. Indian prices when compared to other origins are already 50-60 per cent higher to similar grades. India needs to work on reducing the cost of production to ensure the farmers to make more profits which should be the end benefit, he said.

Rosy outlook

An expert in the pepper sector said the absence of a domestic market has forced farmers in Vietnam and Indonesia to depend on international markets for sale at cheaper prices. The market for Indian pepper is mainly dependent on domestic demand, which is always constant. Since Indian prices are on the higher side, international buyers look for low-priced pepper. The pick-up in domestic demand is also likely to result in the inflow of pepper from countries such as Nepal and Sri Lanka.

However, the future of spices looks rosy as commodities such as pepper, ginger, and turmeric find application in immune therapy.




V Sajeev Kumar/Vishwanath Kulkarni Kochi/Bengaluru
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/

RUSSIA - PEPPER MARKET & IMPORTS

IMPORT OF PEPPER BY RUSSIA
Russia, officially the Russian Federation, is a transcontinental country in Eastern Europe and North Asia. Russia is by a considerable margin the largest country in the world by area, covering more than one-eighth of the earth's inhabited land area. Furthermore, Russia actively imports pepper from various pepper producing countries for domestic consumption or for re-export.
In 2018, Russia was reported to have imported a total 8,047 Mt of pepper which 91% or 7,353 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper while 9% or 695 Mt of it was ground pepper. The average import of pepper by Russia in 2018 was reported to be 671 Mt per month with the highest quantity recorded in May with 1,048 Mt. The total expenditure of pepper import by Russia was reported to be as high as USD 26.2 Million, recording an average price of the total pepper imported by Russia at USD 3,050 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 5,547 Per Mt for ground pepper.
Year 2019 saw an increasing trend in term of quantity of pepper import by Russia. Russia was reported to have recorded a total of 10,306 Mt which 90% or 9,236 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper and 10% or 1,070 Mt of it was ground pepper. Thus, recording an increase of 28% when compared to the same period in 2018. The average pepper imported by Russia was reported at 859 Mt per month which peaked in December with 1,065 Mt. Although increasing in terms of quantity, Russia was reported to have spent 3% less on its pepper import, totaling at USD 25.4 Million, Thus, recording an average price of the total pepper imported by Russia at USD 2,356 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 3,471 per Mt for ground pepper or a decrease by 23% and 37% respectively as compared to 2018.
As of February 2020, Pepper import by Russia was reported with an increase of 38% as compared to the same period in 2019, totaling at 1,208 Mt which comprised of 86% or 1,038 Mt of whole pepper and 14% or 170 Mt of ground pepper. The total expenditure of pepper import by Russia as of February 2020 was reported with an increase by 12% when compared to the same period in the previous year, totaling at USD 2.9 Million. Thus, recording an average price of the total pepper imported by Russia at USD 2,353 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 2,943 per Mt for ground pepper.
The top five countries of origins of Russia's pepper as of February 2020 were reported to be Viet Nam with 672 Mt (an increase of 52% as compared to the same period in 2019), Indonesia with 225 Mt (an increase of 189 Mt), India with 135 Mt (an increase of 89 Mt), Sri Lanka with 88 Mt (a decrease of 24%) and Brazil with 57 Mt (a decrease of 66%). The decreased of Russia import from Brazil and Sri Lanka could be contributed to Russia preference of importing from other origins countries which offered more competitive price such as Viet Nam (an increase by 231 Mt as compared to the same period in 2019) and Indonesia (an increase by 189 Mt).

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VIETNAM - PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 25TH MAY - WEEK 22 - TREND IS UP

Pepper market has continuously increased this month from VND 38,000 in early May to VND 48,500 at the present. Price increase was up to 28% within 25 days and up from the bottom of 35.5% (VND 34,500) within 2 months. A jump in prices is beyond the expectation of almost all pepper producers and exporters not only in Vietnam but also worldwide. The market increased last time mainly due to the following reasons;

- After lock down due to the Covid-19 epidemic, Chinese customers returned to buy both black and white pepper in huge quantities (March and April bought above 20.000 tones and May is around above 10.000 metric tones) . In particular, white pepper is being bought by many and continuously.

- Pepper was low level and is considered to have been at the bottom already (VND 34,500 - 1,510$), so many speculators actively bought huge quantities of stock. This also contributed significantly to the price increase last time.

- Due to the Covid - 19, some countries producing and exporting pepper have been continuously restricted as harvesting, processing, freight forwarding, logistic service. This also makes pepper sometimes suddenly shortage in each different time.

- At low prices and a lot of farmers making losses, many farmers have left and do not continue to take care of pepper as the previous time, besides the weather in the pepper areas is drought. Therefore, pepper production in 2021 is maybe less than the 2020 crop.

- Many exporters sold short for long time shipments who have not covered raw material yet. They have to buy to ensure time of shipment.

- Some big oversea customers have not yet purchased enough quantity for orders in the 3rd & 4th quarters, so they continue to participate in the market in the coming month.

- At present, the situation in Vietnam is controlling Covid 19 quite well. Transportation service, logistics smoothly and quickly. Therefore the oversea demand for spice products in Vietnam is gradually increasing.

- Although the inventories of Vietnam pepper are still quite large, however, we assess that the pressure of circulation of these inventories is very low due to being scattered from farmers, middlemen, exporters ... They are not in a hurry to sell or be ready to freeze inventory if the market price decreases.

- Even at this level many farmers/collectors still think attractive and they have been buying more quantity to stockpiling from last week until now.

- Currently, it is almost the only Vietnam can supply a large quantity to the market while Indonesia and Brazil are offering very limited and not possible prompt shipment. Therefore, the demand for Vietnamese pepper is expected to continue to increase until next July at least (Indonesia harvests in July, Brazil harvests the second crop in August 2020).

- Contrary to many other pepper exporting countries, Vietnam's currency has been consistently stronger than the USD with a 1% over the past week, that makes pepper prices also up.
In my opinion, pepper prices will continue uptrend until the end of June/July. There will be some short-term corrections in July/August.


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