17TH AUGUST 2020
In the first 7 months, Vietnam exported 186,160 tons of pepper (166,669 tons of black pepper, 19,491 tons of white pepper).
First half of August, Vietnam exported 7,215 tons of pepper and is forecast to reach at least 15,000 tons in August bringing the total pepper exports to 201,160 tons (180,169 tons of black pepper and 20,991 tons of white pepper).
Thus, we can have a rough look at the export pepper data of 8 months of 2020 as follows;
- Exported 180,169 tons of black pepper (1)
- Exported 20,991 tons of white pepper (2)
- Loss weight when processing white pepper 25%; 6,997 tons (3)
- Domestic consumption; 8 - 10,000 tons annually (4)
- Loss weight when processing ground pepper is about 5%; 1,000 tons (5)
Total exported and domestic consumption… in the first 8 months 2020 as;
(1) + (2) + (3) + (4) + (5) = 219,157 tons (X)
As many source and reports from the beginning/middle of this year from Exporter/Processor/IPC/VPA…;
- Carry over 2020 is about 20%. Estimated at 80,000 tons (a)
- Crop size 2020; from 230 - 245,000 tons (b)
- Imported from Brazil/Indonesia/Cambodia; 30,000 tons (c)
Therefore, the total quantity expected to be used for export 2020 remains;
(a) + (b) + (c) = 355,000 tons (Y)
So in theory, then;
1. Quantity of pepper used for export for next 4 months from September to December (excluding carry over last year (a) 80,000 tons) as below;
(b) + (c) - X = 245,000 + 30,000 - 219,157 = 55,843 tons.
This number is easily achieved in the last 4 months of 2020 and certainly the inventories of the previous years will gradually reduce. The total crop size of Vietnam pepper 2020 is not enough for export. It’s quite reflective upon the situation after 5 years back as from 2016.
2. However, if including inventory of 80,000 tons (a), the total quantity will be used for export for next 4 months from September to December as below;
(Y) - (X) = 355,000 - 219,157 = 135,843 tons.
Thus, the total quantity used for export is plentiful because next 4 months definitely the total quantity to export can not exceed 70.000 tons . However, please note; the inventory for pepper in Vietnam is at 15 - 20% in every year. It is considered to be largely frozen inventory and its concentrate to exporters, middleman and rich farmers stock. These inventories are less pressured to sell if the price is not attractive enough (lower than inventory price – maybe very high).
Note; The data above is our
research and it’s for reference only because the
statistical tool has many shortcomings and limitations.
*This report made and presented by the
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