Re: Black pepper market has been flat

Well am an importer of Black Pepper in Pakistan.
In the last day or two market for black pepper has suppenly stopped and has reversed a lot.
Rumors effect a lot in a speculative market.
10 days back it looked that the vietnam prices might reach usd4400 or usd4500/pmt for 500gl,as there was no offer from any other country.
But suddenly from no where Malaysia is offering stock,Srilanka is offering,Indonesia is also offering.
And now no buyers.
The way i look at the current situation, Vietnam 2007 crop is damaged,maximum damage could be up to 20%.In the past Vietnam has been exporting like 120,000mt per year.Less 20% still 100,000mt of crop.
And till now the export demand has been very less due to the higher prices.
I ve heard that till now only 25000mt or more have been exported in this quantity last year carry over is also included.
May almost finished,july Brazil crops starts.
So i think that vietnam will have to lowers its prices.
Anonimous

Re: Black pepper market has been flat

End Users demand has been decreasing whereas re-sellers are only buyers..............................A note of danger.........actual users have not bought when the exports were at peak(Q1)........In April the exports were poor overall................so chances of them buying is dull. I feel the market to go down sharply........
BE CAUTIOUS A GREAT FALL MAY BE AWAITING

SURESH

Re: Black pepper market has been flat

it is a false news that vietnam decresed its price .in vietnam still there is no seller
Anonimous

India - Pepper crashes big today

Dear M W,
Pepper crashes big today !!!
MG I asta grade at $ 3550 pmt fob cochin for prmpt
buyers are gone, sellers on top.
Thanks / b rgds

Re: Black pepper market has been flat

Stocks in warehouses of NCDEX are seen at 8490 MT.
Vietnam has not given any clue to global traders regarding its export intentions.
Buyers like China, USA etc prefer to watch the global activities for a while. This explains slower trading activity across the world during the week ending May 19th.
Producers’ offers in India are averaging around USD 3430-3435/MT ex-Kochi - down 1% from previous week.
Meanwhile the FOB markets maintained a steady trend throughout the previous week.

Abhijeet Banerjee

Black pepper market has been flat

For 2 weeks in a row black pepper market has been flat with no buyers interest and still no prices decline could be foreseen in Brazil.
Vietnam reported some ease with 500 gl prices offered at U$D 3,600 today.
Indonesia also easier - U$D 3,850 pmt Lasta.
Brazilian farmers and exporters are holding firm on the 3,800 pmt fob level for the B1 560 gl. possibly due to continuos advises from ABEP that market will continue strong. On the other hand the weakness of the dollar does not help much to accept cheaper prices - it reached the cheapest price in 6 years - today R$ 1,94 / U$ 1,00
This week we publish the new brazilian export statistics for the first quarter. Also USA statistics for the first trimester are available.

INFO VIETNAM

Dear Sir,

Thks for info.
May I point out few aspects?

a- We think the rally is not finished as in Vietnam:
1- Crop 07 (85% harvested) has dropped by at least 20% to reach +/= 90,000 Mt (old trees, low yield due to lack of fertilizer , insect damage on roots), and for the following years, it should stand below 100,000 mt.
2- Low carry over from 2006.
3- Farmers are also in strong position as they do not produce only pepper but other commodities (coffee price was good this year > 1,400$ /mt) or spices.
4- Delays and defaults occurring also.

b-
1- On top of that Indonesia crop still show some weakness in their production (2006<35,000 Mt) and local prices are higher than Vietnam.
2- World offer/demand seems to be in deficit of at least 10%.
3- Low stocks in Consuming countries (mainly is US and Europe)
4- China and India still increase their consumption.

Although it will happen that at some point (4,500$, 5,000$??), Vietnamese farmers start selling but intermediary traders may hold part of it it as well. Rumors that outsiders of spice business start having long position of Pepper and we don’t expect them to release their position for few hundred dollars only!!

We remain bullish torward this market. As soon as we break the psychological level of 4,000$, the roof is open!

Keep in touch and further infos about Brazilian crop will be appreciated.
Thks & Brgds
Francois Bouvery
Sucrex-Export SA (Sucrex-Asia Vietnam)