PEPPER
According
to customs data, exports in the first half of April 2021 reached 15,304
tons of pepper, with a turnover of $ 47.90 million, bringing pepper
exports in the first 3.5 months of 2021 to 76,296. tons, turnover of USD
227.94 million, decreased by 21.98% in volume but increased by 7.32% in
value over the same period last year.
The
average export price in the period reached 3,130 USD / ton, up 6.07%
compared with the average export price in March 2021. We forecast total
quantity export in April will reach 34.000Mts at least and first 4
months 2021 Vietnam will export around 95.000 tons (first 4 months 2020
was 116.764 tons).
The
pandemic Covid-19 outbreak in many countries of the world is causing
the consumption of pepper to drop sharply, forcing the price to drop
sharply last 2 weeks.
In
the fact, the export situation is quite bleak, mainly handling old
orders delivered in May. Meanwhile, although the harvest is over, there
is no sell pressure from farmer as usual.
In
general, Vietnam has completed the 2021 pepper crop. Last week, the
weather was favorable for plants to grow in the 2022 crop. Due to the
slow demand from other markets such as China, the Middle East, and
Europe. Along with that, the disease situation is still very complicated
in the two pepper exporting countries as India and Brazil, besides
farmers household also need to cover labor and fertilizer costs then
this week farmers offer more raw material. The price has fluctuating
daily last week with a range of 50 - 100 $ / MT. However, almost
immediately the market recovered very quickly because farmers /
collectors immediately not offer in bulk when market correction.
Let
look back at the past 4 months and make a more assessment of Vietnam's
crop situation in 2021. We would like to send you the data scenarios
that are likely to happened during this year to have a more
comprehensive view of the price trend in the coming time.
Section |
Scenario 1 |
Scenario 2 |
Scenario 3 |
Carryover (2019 – 2020) |
50 |
40 |
40 |
Crop 2021 |
230 |
200 |
170 |
Total Import 2021 |
30 |
30 |
30 |
Exported in first 4 months |
94,5 |
94,5 |
94,5 |
Domestic consumption |
10 |
10 |
10 |
Lost weight in process white
pepper |
10 |
10 |
10 |
Quantity available next 8
months |
195,5 |
155,5 |
125,5 |
Possibility |
50% ? |
50% ? |
0% |
Please note;
-
The data of inventories of the year before 2019 / 2020 passed through
is now in stock of farmers / exporters, processor / agents with very low
selling pressure (frozen stock).
- Every year, inventories (carryover) are usually kept at origin about 10-15% of the total exported volume.
According
to the above hypothetical scenarios, the third scenario is
unreasonable, although this is the number of many people have given up
on the market in order to distort the market and not correct source. The
scenario easier will be under 1 & 2. Regardless of any scenarios,
pepper production in 2021 is not expected to be as abundant as in
previous years and supply pressure took place in February and March as
you can see (prices increased by 45% within more than 1 month).
CHECK LAST PRICE INDICATIONS FOR VIETNAM PEPPER, CASSIA, TURMERIC, STARANISE...https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/04/vietnam-price-indication-for-pepper.html