IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT No. 49/20, 30 November - 4 December 2020

LOCAL MARKET REPORT

Market this week was reported with a positive outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,506 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 2,135 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,953 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and were traded at an average of USD 2,167 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,643 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% and 4% respectively as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 2,391 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,467 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 3,013 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REPORT

International market showed a rather stable outlook as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,777 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable, averaging at USD 2,605 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,638 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper as well as China white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged.

Pepper price in US market was reported with a decreasing trend as well as limited offers. Muntok white pepper in US Market for CF December/January was reported at USD 4.800 per Mt. 

 

 

CARDAMOM GUATEMALA - UNUSUAL BAD WEATHER PUSHES PRICES UP

 

During November, ETA & IOTA Hurricanes hit Central America (Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and el Salvador).  In Guatemala, the biggest impact was in the North Region, including Alta Verapaz, Izabal, Quiche and Huehuetenango, states, which are the most important regions of Cardamom in Guatemala.

 

These hurricanes caused floods, landslides, road damages, infrastructure damages in the rural and urban areas, Cardamom, Coffee, Corn, Beans and other crops plantations suffered serious damages; cardamom prices behavior for the rest of the season are difficult to determine. The first estimations done in August 2020 at the beginning of 2020-2021 Crop, had shown around 10%-20% more production in comparison with 2019-2020 crop. However, based on the preliminary reports after ETA & IOTA hurricanes, the total volume of 2020-2021 crop could be the same as 2019-2020 crop.

 

During the upcoming weeks it will be possible to have more data, because up to today there are still roads damaged without access due to landslides, there are still areas under water, and some rivers until now have started to return to their normal levels.  

 

We are on the peak of the harvest season, which is about to end, however, prices have remain firm at high levels.

IPC PEPPER MKT UPDATE No. 46/20, 9 - 13 November 2020

LOCAL MARKET REPORT

Market this week was reported with a positive outlook as only China was reported stable. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,403 per Mt. Indonesia black and white peppers were reported with an increase of 4% and 3% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,140 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,838 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,134 @ USD 1), an appreciation by 3% recorded. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,139 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,596 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 6% respectively as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 2,337 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,210 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,982 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REPORT
International market also showed a positive outlooks as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 2% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,673 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 4% and 3% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,610 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,551 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 5%, 4% and 3% respectively as opposed to the previous week to an average of USD 2,775 per Mt, USD 2,856 per Mt and USD 4,345 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged internationally. 

 

 

VIETNAM PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 09 NOV 2020 – WEEK 46

 

Pepper exports in October reached 19 thousand tons, worth 48 million USD, up 4% in volume and 4.9% in value compared to the last month, compared with October 2019, up 11.9% in volume and 17.1% increase in value. In the first 10 months of 2020, pepper exports reached 239 thousand tons, worth 537 million USD, down 4.6% in volume and 15.2% in value over the same period in 2019.

Average pepper export price in October was estimated at 2,526 USD/ton, up 0.9% compared to September and 4.6% to October 2019.

Export of ground pepper has also achieved impressive quantity and continuous growth over the years, exports of ground black pepper increased by 37.5% in volume and 26.6% in value compared with the same period in 2019 reached 24.3 thousand tons, value 68.14 million USD. Ground black pepper to most major markets increased, including USA, UK, Netherlands, Japan, Australia, Thailand, Sweden, China, and Korea.

Many countries relax social distancing especially with the main import markets such as the USA, China, and India. After 4 months of moderate buying (July to October), we have foreseen China becoming more aggressive to stockpile during November. Otherwise, the Vietnam - EU Free Trade Agreement has opened up so we hope for many other opportunities for Vietnam's pepper in the coming time.

After being affected by many storms and tropical depressions, the weather in the key pepper areas of Vietnam was much better when the rainfall decreased significantly, the weather was generally quite favorable. However, the pepper market still steadily increased in price at week 45 as demand continued to increase in almost all markets ASIA/AFRICA/USA (except the EU) and especially increased strongly from China.

Due to the heavy rains, this year's crop in Vietnam is expected to be harvested at least 1 month later than previous years. The earliest harvest area in Daknong province almost only begins harvesting in January (Year 2017/2018/2019 harvested a little in early December).
The pepper prices were low last year, so the pepper string was uneven and sparse due to the lack of fertilizer and farmer care. This may cause the quantity of light berries to drop sharply in the 2021 crop (light berries and light berries to extra oil). In addition, pepper prices may stabilize and increase in 2021 that encourage farmers to have the psychology of storing, not harvesting early, and not picking green pepper corn like 2018/2019 to sell. The shortage of light berries pepper in the first quarter of 2021 is the possibility to make pepper pricing in the main season not come down as expected. Last 2 years, light berries prices have sometimes gone up 100 – 200$ within 1 – 2 days that make pepper raw material also moved up.

In addition, the harvest is likely to be slower next crop 2021, the demand for white pepper in all markets is very high while the raw materials harvested at the beginning of the 2021 season cannot be used for white pepper production due to low density. This is also a significant factor affecting prices in the coming time.

Other information; Several inquiries not only from overseas but also in local traders for next year shipment 2021 with the price is the similar prompt shipment for large quantities.

 

 

IPC PEPPER MARKET UPDATE - No. 45/20, 2 - 6 November 2020

 

LOCAL MARKET REPORT

Market this week showed a mixed response as only Indonesia was reported with an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,335 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,065 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,717 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,529 @ USD 1), an appreciation by 1% recorded. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable with a marginal increase and was traded at an average of USD 2,123 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,569 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported stable at an average of USD 2,215 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,041 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,899 per Mt. 

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REPORT

International market also showed a mixed response as India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,603 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,520 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,369 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. 

 

 

VIETNAM -MKT REPORT- CASSIA PRICE INCREASE STEADILY

 

 

 

Situation of cassia and aniseed have been very stressful, prices have increased daily, raw material is scarce.
After the Covid epidemic has been controlled, demand for aniseed and cassia increased sharply.
The strict control of cassia, aniseed material imported from China makes the goods more scarce.
China is actively buying aniseed flowers from Vietnam now.
Price of Cigarette Cassia – Split Cassia – Broken Cassia  increased sharply, price of aniseed increased even more strongly, even nearly doubling price at beginning of October.
Some warehouses regret that they did not buy material when price was low, when price has been up ad demand still tall, but they have no stock to sell.
It is forecasted that in coming time, when new crops have not yet entered (new crops of cassia and aniseed both start at March end and early April 2021), price of cassia and aniseed will continue to increase steadily. Only warehouses who gathered material at low prices can offer competitive prices. Some customers have a strategy of purchasing at a time of low price and accepting forward delivery, then this time they are winning big. 

VIETNAM SPICES - A COMPREHENSIVE OVERVIEW - UPDATE 26TH OCT 2020 – WEEK 44

 

 

 

 

1/ PEPPER

 

According to the Vietnam Customs data, in the first 23 days of October, Vietnam exported 15,405 tons of pepper and Vietnam exported approximately 240,000 tons of pepper in the first 10 months of 2020. This is a very impressive figure as the total production of the 2020 crop is predicted from various sources from 230-250,000 tons. Although Vietnam imports from other countries such as Indonesia/Brazil/Cambodia around 24.841 tons, the inventory from the old crops 2 to 3 years ago such as 2018 & 2019 has been gradually reduced. We will not be surprised stock carry forward of this year 2021 are forecasted to plummet and less than so much carryover 2020.

Covid 19 control has been better in many countries that speed up many countries to increase production while inventories almost tight. Therefore, many different countries to increase their purchase order starting from the 4th quarter to supplement production in 2021. This has resulted in many spices items having very impressive price increases such as;

- Pepper; increased by 10% within 1 week from October 16-25

- Cassia/Cinnamon; 10% price increase within 1 day from last week

- Star Anise has achieved a historic increase in 60% within 1 month.

In addition, an increase in the consumption of convenience foods such as snacks, soups, sandwiches, and frozen products are expected to a surge in demand in the global spice market in the coming years.

China import pepper in the third quarter was only 4,131 tons, around 34.9% compare with the first quarter and only 17.0% compare with the second quarter. Total import in 9 months was 40,305 tons of pepper. Therefore, China has started to increase the quantity of purchases for the fourth quarter, which has significantly contributed to the hot rise in pepper prices last time. Otherwise, in the key pepper areas of Vietnam, it is forecasted that output will drop sharply in 2021 due to the heavy effects of climate change such as storms, floods, and limited care from the farmer. That's contributed to stabilizing pepper prices and have less opportunity to decrease the prices in the medium term.

 

 

Other highlights last week;

 

The Malaysian Pepper Commission (MPB) predicts that the pepper production in 2020 will decrease by 20% and reached only 30,000 tons. The reason is due to poor storage of pepper on the farm as well as farmers less take care for the pepper plantation when pepper prices are low.

Export data first 9 months of 2020;

 

- Asia imported 50.7% Vietnam pepper and continues to be the largest pepper importer of Vietnam, but decreased 5.0% over the same period. The leading importer is China with an import volume of 40,305 tons, down 25.1% over the same period; India imported 10,760 tons, down 37.9%; Saudi Arabia imported 9,989 tons, up 14.0%; Pakistan imported 8,566 tons, down by 4.0%...

 

- European imports ranked second, up 1.1%, and roughly for 20.9% of the total export volume of Vietnam Pepper. Leading by Germany imported 8,645 tons, down 5.3%; The Netherlands imported 5,873 tons, down 9.3%; Russia imported 4,606 tons, up 10.2%; The UK imported 4,241 tons, up 20.9%. France imported 3,153 tons, up 41.8%; Poland imported 2,642 tons, up 25.5%...

 

- The third-largest importer around 20.8% in Latin America and increased by 3.0% over the same period. Of which the United States is the largest pepper import from Vietnam, imported 42,040 tons, up 8.3% over the same period and roughly for 90.9% of the Latin America market share. Canada imported 2,063 tons and increased 0.8% over the same period last year.

 

- African imports around 7.7% and increased by 1.0% over the same period last year. The main is Egypt, which imported 7,627 tons, up 26.5%. Imports decreased in South Africa and Senegal with a decrease in 15.3% and 17.2% respectively.

The 3 largest pepper importing countries of Vietnam are the US, China, and India with the total import volume of 93,105 tons occupying 42% of the total export volume of Vietnam Pepper.

 

 

No	Market	9 MONTHS 2018	9 MONTHS 2019	9 MONTHS 2020
1	ASIA	52,9%	55,7%	50,7%
2	EU	19,8%	19,8%	20,9%
3	Latin America	19,2%	17,8%	20,8%
4	Africa	8,0%	6,7%	7,7%
Total		100%	100%	100%

 

 

2/ CASSIA

 

Prices up during the past 2 weeks such as;
- 10% for cassia broken within 1 or 2 days from last week
- 16% for cassia split last 2 weeks
- 9% for cassia cigarette/sticks.

Prices increased rapidly due to a shortage of supplies from China/Indo… while Vietnam's crop output was not as expected. Harvesting is also very difficult due to the heavy rain and storms/tropical depression. Demand continues to increase from USA/EU/… has made Cassia prices are forecasted to continue to increase in the near future.

 

 

3/ STAR ANISED

 

Huge demand from different countries such as USA/EU/China has made the price of anise rose dramatically with an increase of 50 - 65% in just 1 month. Prices are currently high and there is no chance of a decrease in the short term.



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