#PEPPER - IPC MARKET REPORT No. 14/20, 30 March - 3 April 2020

As Viet Nam reportedly implemented a total nation-wide lockdown, starting 1 April 2020, in response of trying to flatten the curve of Corona Virus spreading, market this week showed a mixed response as only Viet Nam was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,219 per Mt. The increase of Malabar black pepper price could be contributed to the slight strengthening of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. Following the social distancing policy implemented in Indonesia some major markets in Lampung and Bangka, two major producing area of black and white pepper, are closed. Consequently, Indonesia black pepper was reported with a slight increase of 2% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,458 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 2,612 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as comp ared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,703 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,056 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with 2% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 1,577 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,381 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,766 per Mt which could be contributed to the weakening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar. China white pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 4,214 per Mt locally.
International market showed a rather stable outlook with only Indonesia origin recorded an increase. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,484 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,808 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 3,110 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported steady and was traded at an average of USD 4,414 per Mt.
Prices at US market this week was reported quite stable, though business had become slightly unpredictable and slow due to the nation-wide lockdown as US became country with the most active cases of Corona Virus with 228,874 (as of 3 April 2020) and 6,095 total death. Many pepper origins were still very cautious when prices were already at very low levels and unlikely to fall further when US Dollar strong against International local currencies. 

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

IPC MARKET REVIEW - February 2020

PRICE HISTORY

As the outbreak of Corona Virus continued affecting around 109 countries all over the world with a death toll reaching 3,831 cases (as of 09 March), pepper price index for the 2th month of 2020 was reported with a negative outlook. The price index of black pepper for February was reported with a major decrease of 11.4% as compared with the previous month at 30.30 point (Table 1). In addition, when compared with February 2019, the price index of black pepper experienced 7% loss. Following the same trend, the price index of white pepper for February 2020 was also reported with a significant decrease as it recorded a 6.9% decrease as compared with previous month at 32.36 point. In comparison with the same period in 2019, the price index of white pepper experienced a more significant decrease by 13%.


In the 2th month of 2020, the composite price for both black and white pepper was reported with a negative outlook. Composite price of black pepper in February was reported at USD 2,254 per Mt, recording USD 290 per Mt loss as compared with January. Aligned with composite price of black pepper, composite price of white pepper was also reported with a rather significant loss as it dropped to USD 3,349 per Mt. Thus, recording USD 249 per Mt loss as compared with the previous month.


Pepper prices in the 2nd month of 2020, showed a negative outlook with Viet Nam origin recorded the highest decrease as opposed to the previous month. The farm gate price of black pepper in India was reported with a decrease by 3% as opposed to January, averaging at USD 4,390 per Mt (Table 3). In the local currency farm gate price of India black pepper was traded at an average of INR 313 per Kg. The decrease of India black pepper price could be contributed to the harvest season currently in full swing as well as the depreciation of Indian Rupee against US Dollar.

The price of black pepper in Indonesia (Lampung black pepper) was reported with a decrease by 3% as opposed to the previous month, averaging at of USD 1,742 per Mt. The decrease of Indonesia black pepper could be contributed to the sluggish demand and the weakening of Indonesia's local currency against the US Dollar (IDR 13,776 for USD 1). In local currency, the price of Indonesia black pepper decreased to an average of IDR 24,000 per Kg from IDR 24,614 per Kg

In February 2020, the farm gate price of Malaysia's black pepper was reported with a decrease by 4% as compared to the previous month, averaging at USD 1,800 per Mt. The decrease of Malaysia black pepper could be contributed to the decrease of pepper price in local currency and the weakening of Malaysia's local currency against the US Dollar (MYR 4.16 for USD 1) or a depreciation by 2% when compared with the January. In local currency, the price of Malaysia black pepper decreased to an average of MYR 7,490 per Kg from MYR 7,621 per Kg.

Furthermore, farm gate price of black pepper in Viet Nam was reported to have decreased by 6% as opposed to January averaging at USD 1,613 per Mt. The decrease of Viet Nam black pepper price could be contributed to the harvest season currently in full swing. In local currency, the price of Viet Nam black pepper decreased to an average of VND 38,500 per Kg from VND 40,875 per Kg.

Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a staggering 11% deficit as opposed to January and was reported at an average of USD 2,931 per Mt. The decrease of Sri Lanka black pepper could be contributed to sufficient stock following end of harvest in January. In local currency, the price of Sri Lanka black pepper decreased to an average of LKR 531.92 per Kg from LKR 586.72 per Kg.

BLACK PEPPER
FOB price of black pepper for February 2020 also showed a negative outlook with only Malaysia origin was reported stable. India was reported with the same 3% decrease when compared to the January, averaging at USD 4,670 per Mt (Table 4). Furthermore, the FOB price of black pepper in Indonesia was also reported with a decrease by 2% as opposed to January, averaging at USD 2,161 per Mt. FOB price of Malaysian black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 3,685 per Mt. Furthermore, FOB price of Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l and 550 g/l were reported with a significant decrease by 16% and 14% respectively as compared to the previous month at an average of USD 1,964 per Mt and USD 2,060 per Mt respectively.

WHITE PEPPER
Farm gate prices of white pepper in February 2020 also showed a negative outlook (Table 5) as only Indonesia origin was reported stable. Indonesia Muntok white pepper was reported stable at average of USD 3,122 per Mt. In local currency, the price of Muntok white pepper was reported at an average of IDR 43,000 per Kg. Farm gate price of Malaysia white pepper was reported with a decrease by 3% as opposed to January at an average of USD 3,211 per Mt. Furthermore, Viet Nam white pepper was reported with a significant decrease by 8% when compare to the previous month, averaging at USD 2,409 per Mt. China market continued to be reported inactive in February as no business took place due to the outbreak of Corona Virus.


FOB price of white pepper showed a rather stable outlook with only Viet Nam origin was reported with a decrease. FOB price of Indonesia white pepper for February 2020 was reported stable, averaging at USD 3,716 per Mt. Furthermore, FOB price of Malaysia white pepper continued to be reported stable and unchanged. Whilst, FOB price of Viet Nam white pepper was reported with a significant dropped of 12% at an average of USD 3,069 per Mt .

 

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade 

#PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 9TH MARCH 2020 – WEEK 11

Vietnam has exported roughly 25,600 tons of pepper in February, bringing the total pepper exported in the last 2 months to 40,600 tons, an increase of 11% compared to the first 2 months of 2019. We forecast March the total export volume will be easy to reach from 32 to 35,000 tons. All details data that we will collect and send you within next week.

Under the influence of #Corona Virus, the pepper market in Vietnam has had certain effects when prices decreased slightly over the weekend due to low demand and psychological factors affecting commodity prices. Furthermore, almost exporters covered enough raw material for Feb/First week March shipment and now keep sidelined.

After easier tone, the market has shown signs of recovery with some demand from India/Nepal and Eastern Europe. The USA market also recorded some demand for further shipment from June to December. However, business were slow due to collector/exporters/speculator prefer to offer promptly shipment and hesitating to offer full year shipment. In contrast to many other countries, Vietnam currency has strengthened against the USD and expected to continue until the second quarter of 2020 (equivalent to a price increased of about 10$/Mt).

China It seems has better control of the disease and we hope the situation will settled down soon. Border traded still tight and under strict control with costly. However, likely demand are returning soon. China reported trading its white pepper internationally with an average of USD 4,375 per Mt.

India as the harvest come to full swing Malabar black pepper was traded with a 4% discount on the price as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,203 per Mt. Currency depreciation than USD from  last week.

Indonesia black and white pepper also down around 1 and 2% respectively at an average of USD 1,684 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,053 per Mt for white pepper. Indonesian Rupiah also weakening than USD with 2% depreciation.

Malaysian an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,767 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,172 per Mt for white pepper.

Sri Lanka was also reported steady at an average of USD 2,937 per Mt.

Brazil market we heard continue firm and less offer from farmers/collectors. USD stronger against with Real.

 









WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

#PEPPER #INDIA - Pepper imports from Brazil worry Indian growers

Kochi March 03, 2020

 #Coronavirus
Spice meet put off on virus scare

Pepper farming community has voiced concern over the presence of Brazilian pepper in India. It is reported that markets in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Delhi and Maharasthra are getting Brazilian pepper for re-export at ₹340 +GST paid and freight delivered at the buyer’s doorstep.
The price of Indian pepper comes to around ₹360. Traders claim Brazilian pepper has 600 gm/litre bulk density.

According to Kishore Shamji of Kishor Spices, pepper farmers are worried over the new entrant into the Indian markets, which is selling below the Vietnam pepper prices. The latter rules at $2,000 per tonne against the Brazilian pepper’s $1,800-1,900. It is estimated that over 600 tonnes of Brazilian pepper were imported into the country during December and January.

Normally, Vietnam bolder berries would slip into the domestic market as No 13 quantity that had snatched away Wayanadan and Karnataka pepper share from the domestic market.

Meanwhile, pepper prices in Kochi were down by ₹1 per kg with limited sellers from Kerala. The arrivals in the market was lower at 13 tonnes. The average price realised for ungarbled varieties was ₹308 per kg, while MG1 garbled stood at ₹328. New pepper was quoted at ₹298.
However, traders expect arrivals to pick up in the coming days, mainly from Wayanad and Karnataka, to be followed by Tamil Nadu.

Meanwhile, the coronavirus scare has forced organisers in Kochi to postpone the International Spice Conference 2020 slated to be held from March 8 to 11.
The organisers pointed out that many of the delegates from countries such as Italy, Europe, West Asia have informed their inability to attend the meet.

V Sajeev Kumar
The HinduBusinessLine

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

#PEPPER #INDIA - Limited offtake drives pepper prices down

Kochi  March 02, 2020

Limited offtake by end-users and improved arrivals hammered pepper prices down by ₹8 a kg in Kochi last week.

The market was also down by ₹1 on Monday on the arrival of 72 tonnes and the average price realised was ₹309 for ungarbled varieties. MG1 garbled variety was quoted at ₹329, while new pepper stood at ₹299.

According to Kishore Shamji of Kishor Spices, pepper from Coorg and Wayanad with moderate demand from end-users was sold. Dealers from Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh were not buying because of riots in the capital city.

However, cold conditions in northern India is keeping demand stable. Consumption in the domestic market has gone up to 5,000-6,000 tonnes a month, which could be met by domestic production, he said.

Shamji said imports from Sri Lanka have come down to 69 tonnes in January. February figures are yet to be known. However, traders voiced concern over the reported move by Sri Lanka and Vietnam to impress upon Indian government to withdraw the minimum import price imposed on pepper, which would enable these countries to dump their produce in the domestic market.

Though arrivals from Karnataka and Wayanad have picked up, traders said availability of Karnataka pepper was limited with good buying interest for pepper with bulk density above 550gm per litre.

A section of the trade speculates that the market is likely to drop to ₹250 per kg in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh on higher production, Shamji said.

V Sajeev Kumar
The HindubusinessLine

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

#BlackPepper - First Report after Lunar New Year

Vietnam; exported in the first half of January 2020 around 9,496 tons of pepper and possible export over 16,000 tons in January. That will be less than the same period 2019 (exported 19,773 tons) because Vietnam has a long holiday from 23rd to the end of January 2020.

Pepper market in general has slightly decreased because the carryover is still available while the new crop has started to harvest. It is expected that after a week more Daklak area will start to harvest, Daknong starting fully swing during this time. The supply of material to the market to be quite abundant from now to the end of March 2020.

However, it is difficult to predict the price when the pepper price is already very low, many farmers are at a loss and do not take care of the pepper plantation as before.

Manufacturers and exporters are quite cautious and rarely sell big short as in previous years because this price is not attractive, the profit margin is too low while the risk is high.

India; According to Cogencis, Pepper harvest in Kerala state has officially started in January 2020, but the output and quality of pepper are low due to adverse weather. Crop size in 2020 is forecast to increase by 30% from last year to 61,000 - 62,000 tons due to favorable weather in Kerala state.

According to Indian experts, pepper prices may decrease in the period February - March after the states of Kerala and Karnataka in the main season.
Brazil:In Brazil the strong fluctuations in the exchange rate in the last week, has contributed to some discounts below the level of the last week.
Against this favorable news for the importer, a week of heavy rains in ES(Port of Vitoria), affected the harvest and the delivery of dry black pepper and the weather forecast for February is not favorable
Further, the short availability of free containers and complicated documents processing are delaying contracted shipments.
The heavy rains cause a decrease in supply of pepper to local market, processors and exporters

It is generally understood that 60% to 70% of the ES crop has already been harvested.

Large consumer market;

China; Under the influence of the Corona virus and currently on the occasion of the Lunar New Year, almost all international border gates with Vietnam have closed. The quota trade with the pepper market was temporarily suspended. Demand for pepper from China, is expected to be very low/absent in the next 1-2 weeks.

America; High demand for whole year shipment, especially with delivery period in the second half of 2020. However, prices are not really attractive and risky, so some exporters in Vietnam are still hesitant.

Nepal & the Middle East; Great demand for 5mm bold berries pepper with immediate shipment while limited supply and raw material.

EU; Focus on buying with spot orders and not much quantity.

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

IPC MARKET REPORT No. 01/20, 30 Dec. 2019 - 03 Jan 2020

LOCAL MARKET
Market at the end of 2019 and the beginning of 2020 showed mixed response with only Indonesia and Malaysia origins recorded an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,627 per Mt. In local currency, Malabar black pepper was traded at an average of RS 330 per Kg. Indonesia black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,761 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,091 per Mt. The increase of Indonesia white pepper could be contributed to the increase of the price in local currency which averaging at IDR 43,000 per Kg. Malaysian black and white pepper recorded an increase of 1% respectively at an average of USD 1,860 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,292 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,738 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,626 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper continued to be traded with a deficit and this week by 3% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,607 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,338 per Mt.

INTERNATIONAL MKT
International market showed a rather stable outlook this week with only Indonesia origin recorded an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,907 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,181 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 3,680 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. In international market China was reported steady with an average of USD 4,438 per Mt.

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

TRYING TO UNDERSTAND BLACK PEPPER MARKET

A Client asked me today:

" Why Brazilian Black Pepper has been cheaper then Vietnam for such long time ?
I´ve been in the market for 6 years now and I never seen such situation !"

Well, neither I know.
I´ve been trying to understand the reasons but cannot find a reasonable answers for 2 questions:
Why brazilian pepper had been cheaper for all year long, and
Why Pepper price in general decreased that much in the last seasons ?

Average prices for B1 550g black pepper in 2002 were U$D 1,500/ton
Than in 2006/2007 it started to rise to U$D1,800 /U$R 2,000 / U$D 2,250... ended the 2007 quoted at U$D 3,700
After a relatively smooth 2008 and 2009 it climbed to U$D 4,200 at the end of 2010.
Beginning 2011 it went from U$D4,200 to U$D 7,000 and from then it was always quoted in the range ofU$  7 - 8,000, with a peak of U$D 9,000 in 2015.
In the middle of2017 it started to fall ending the year at U$D 3,600 and now is averaging U$D 2,000 - back to 12 years ago !
If inflation is considered, the present price is even lower that the one of 2002.

WHY ??? What happened to pull the prices to such behaviour ?  And what´s is to come now ???

Therefore I invite you to write a guess about these 2 questions and further try to make a preview for the next year or even more extended. Please write to manager@peppertrade.com.br

The answers for these questions will be published on our blog and FB page, and if you desire we´ll mention your name and mail adress.

Let´s see if we find a consensus

Thank you all
Michail Wagapoff

--