VIETNAM - PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 15TH JUNE - WEEK 25

Pepper market week 24 was down in value of about 2.7% due to a collectors in Daksong (main pepper area) which has lost liquidity and unable to pay deeply in debts.

This cause to a lots of farmers/middlemans in a panic and forced to close the consignment of goods at other collectors warehouse to recover cash to avoid the risk of consignment, causing the price to drop quickly by 2.5% in 1-2 days (the material from 55,000 VND has dropped sharply about VND 53,500 as of today).

After the shock reduction, the market seems to have regained its balance and the upward trend/stable continues to be clearly shown by the increasing demand from oversea importers during the past week. Despite difficulties due to Covid - 19, the new price level has been firmly established because good demand from the EU/ASIA market.

Through a quick survey in raw material area, we would like to briefly outline the situation as follows;

-  Vietnam's inventory is still large. However, the current inventory is scattered from many different person such as;

+ Farmer households (estimated to hold 15-20% of inventory). We assess this stock has no selling pressure as it is concentrated among the wealthiest households. Farmers can stockpiling if prices go down. Its as frozen stock already.

+ Top 10 big exporters keeping around 25,000 tons. Other exporters around 10.000 tons more. Total exporters keeping 30,000 - 35,000 tons (We do not know how much quantity has been sold)

+ Four large domestic agents are holding about 20,000 tons at least.

+ Total exported within fitst 5 months 2020 reach 148.000 tons.

Therefore, regardless of the number of pepper crop production in Vietnam 2020, currently total quantity offering for export is not much available in the last 6 months of 2020.

- Its not much difference in the situation of the new crop 2021 such as drought or heavy rain, and there are also favorable weather areas and disadvantages… However, the main point is many farmers neglect and do not take care of pepper plantation as before because the current price is not attractive enough to take care and maintain. This may be the most important reason for a decrease in production in the coming seasons 2021.

We will have more surveys situation in August & another in October. We hope to give more useful and accurate information in the crop year 2020/2021.

Other information for reference;

- Brazil Currency fluctuations are very erratic with large amplitudes. Currently, inventory available for sale was negligible. Almost had to wait for a new crop at Para at the end of August/September.

- Indonesia It is forecasted that the crop size less by 20% and will be harvested by the end of July. Few boxes maybe available for August shipment for testing market.

- India Reopening again after long time lockdown due to Covid 19. India's market demand continues to increase compared to previous months.

- China Continued to participate in the market, but was less than in June due to the complicated situation of Covid-19. However, we expect more demand will coming in the next 1-2 weeks.

- America continued to participate in the market with orders delivered in the second half of 2020.

- Asia/EU We expect increase from the EU when other origin do not have big quantity for immediate shipment.

- Vietnam currency stronger than USD is foreseen.

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