VIETNAM MARKET UPDATE 1ST JULY 2020 – WEEK 27

JULY 1st ,  2020

Viet Nam;

The pepper market uptrend again with 45$ increase in the first day of July after falling in the past week. Despite the negative information and lower oversea demand compared to the previous months. However, in June, Vietnamese also exported roughly 24,000 tons, bringing the total pepper exported in the first 6 months of 2020 to reach 171,115 tons (6 months of 2019; 180,276 tons). With the commitment was done, we will not be surprised if the export volume in July, 2020 to reach 18-20,000 tons at least, bringing the total export volume in the first 7 months of 2020 to approximately 190,000 tons. An impressive figure when total production of 2020 pepper crop is assessed to decrease by 15-20% compared to the 2019 crop.

Some other information for reference;

- Export in the last 6 months of 2017 (July to December); 89,529 tons

- Export in the last 6 months of 2018 (July to December);  103,737 tons

- Export in the last 6 months of 2019 (July to December); 106,727 tons

- Let's wait and see how many tons will be exported in the last 6 months of 2020

Although China's demand is currently low, they almost do not participate in pepper much over 5 weeks. However, the current price remains stable and it will be difficult to reduce in the near future due to stock coming too tight. Prices are still low and farmers are not willing to sell more when market correction. If the price is reduced, farmers immediately offer to drip and stop offering.

Brazil;

Currently, Brazil stock finished now and cannot offer immediate shipment. The second crop of Brazil will start in end August/early September, so it can only be offered during September onwards 2020 shipment. However, it is likely that Brazilian exporters have already sold about 15 - 20% of the new crop in advance and will prefer to cover from farmers first instead of continuing to offer further shipment.

Indonesia;

We heard heavy rains and strong wind continuously so maybe delays in harvesting until beginning August. Prices are not attractive to the farmer and the 2020 crop may reduce production. Crop 2020 expected to export is very small with about 17-20,000 tons so farmers/exporters will not hurry to offer.

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