VIETNAM SPICES MARKET UPDATE 15th MARCH 2021 – WEEK 11

 
PEPPER;

 

In February, Vietnam exported 13,428 tonnes of pepper, with the export value reaching 38.92 million USD. Compared to the previous month, the export volume decreased by 20.5%, the turnover decreased by 20.1%. Accumulated in the first 2 months of 2021, Vietnam exported 30,291 tons, worth 87.56 million USD. Although pepper prices have increased rapidly, the export quantity and export turnover of this commodity has decreased sharply by 21.4% (quantity) and 25.3% (export turnover) in the same period last year. 

Last week, pepper prices continued to rise sharply with an increase of 20% in just 7 days. Especially, there was a day when the market increased and decreased with an amplitude of 12%. (On March 8 - March 9, after a hot increase of 12%, it decreased to 12% in just 24 hours, then continued to increase strongly again.).  

Within 1 month (from February 17, 2021, to March 14, 2021), the price of pepper has increased by 40%.

Please refer to the following chart;

The market rose so hotly that manufacturers/exporters had to come and meet together from Friday last week to analyze the main reasons that have strongly impacted the market during the past time. The main cause as well as we have sent it briefly to you in the last week.

 

"Re-quoted - market update week 10th as below"

 

Despite being in the harvest season, raw material prices continue to rise steadily due to the following main reasons;

 

- Many farmers are at a loss even at this price due to having a poor crop, almost all consider storing pepper. Farmers and domestic agents prefer to sell other agricultural products like Coffee to cover temporary costs and store as much as they can. From their perspective, pepper is the most attractive to invest in compared to other agricultural products. Some rich farmers even buying from others to stock continue.

- Pepper's price is at an attractive level has stimulated many exporters/domestic agents to buy stocks. Especially, there are large enterprises with FDI capital actively participating and pushing the market up sharply in the last time. Pepper harvesting fully swings in all areas in Vietnam however it is not easy to buy in bulk.

- China and Domestic speculators buying very aggressively after Lunar New Year. Demand coming from Middle East/India for March/April shipment. USA customers are more interesting to cover full-year shipments but processors/exporters hesitate to offer further shipments.

 - Several exporters are big short and have been buying raw material in secret in order to ensure shipment on time to the buyers.

 

 Regarding price's flowchart from 2010 - 2020, we can see that pepper prices of 2021 go against most of the previous years when increased rapidly in peak season (quite similar with price fluctuations in 2011 - 10 years ago). Prices increased continuously which surprised all producers, exporters and importers. Currently at this price level, some farmers have become profitable, last week quite a lot of farmers in the Central Highlands provinces actively hired many workers to harvest quickly and sell to domestic agents when the raw material prices reached their expectation.

 

With the large amplitude increase and decrease and dependence on speculation (farmers / domestic agents / China/traders), we think that the market is at a rather high-risk level. Therefore all the relative parties (producer/exporter/buyer) should be careful when entering the market. (Although in the medium and long term, we think it is still uptrend)

SEE TODAY´S PRICES FROM VIETNAM:
https://offers-peppertrade.blogspot.com/2021/03/

 

IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT No. 11/21, 8 - 12 March 2021

 

LOCAL MARKET REPORT

Market this week showed a mixed response with only Malaysia local price was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,715 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,359 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported stable, averaging at USD 4,475 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 1% deficit respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,459 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,902 per Mt for white pepper. The decrease of Malaysia's pepper could be contributed to the weakening of Malaysian Ringgit against the US Dollar (MYR 4.11 @ USD 1), recording a 1% depreciation. Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 11% respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,697 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,215 per Mt fo r white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 6% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,924 per Mt.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REPORT

International market was reported with a rather positive outlook as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,989 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,857 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported stable, averaging at USD 5,217 per Mt. Contrary to the local market, Malaysia black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,870 per Mt. Whilst, Malaysian white pepper was reported stable, averaging at USD 5,260 per Mt. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 4%, 4% and 6% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,283 per Mt, USD 3,356 per Mt and USD 5,076 per Mt respectively.

US market as well as European markets were reported stable with a slight increasing trend. Muntok white pepper in US Market for CF March/April was reported in the range of USD 5.300 - 5,500 per Mt. 

 

 

 

 

VIETNAM SPICES MARKET UPDATE 8th MARCH 2021 – WEEK 10

PEPPER

Pepper price has increased by 19.5% in the past two weeks. The price of material from the VND 53,500 has increased to VND 64.000 today.

Despite being in the harvest season, raw material prices continue to rise steadily due to the following main reasons;

 

-       Many farmers are at a loss even at this price due to having a poor crop, almost all consider storing pepper. Farmers and domestic agents prefer to sell other agricultural products like Coffee to cover temporary costs and store as much as they can. From their perspective, pepper is the most attractive to invest in compared to other agricultural products. Some rich farmers even buying from others to stock continue.

 

-       Pepper's price is at an attractive level has stimulated many exporters/domestic agents to buy stocks. Especially, there are large enterprises with FDI capital actively participating and pushing the market up sharply in the last time. Pepper harvesting fully swings in all areas in Vietnam however it is not easy to buy in bulk.

 

-       China and Domestic speculators buying very aggressively after Lunar New Year. Demand coming from Middle East/India for March/April shipment. USA customers are more interesting to cover full-year shipments but processors/exporters hesitate to offer further shipments.

 

-       Several exporters are big short and have been buying raw material in secret in order to ensure shipment on time to the buyers.

 

Although Vietnam imports from other countries every year for re-production and re-export, the possibility of inventories from old crops and the volume of imports is forecasted to plummet in this year 2021 due to the price almost not much difference between each country.

 

Covid's control has been better in many countries while inventories used for production have to reduce a lot. Therefore, many countries try to increase the number of purchases to supplement production orders in 2021. This has resulted in prices of many commodities having very impressive price increases such as;

 

⦁ Pepper; has increased by 19.5% over 2 weeks from February 17th  - March 7th

⦁ Ginger; 5-7% increase within 1 week

⦁ Star Anise rose 25-30% within 1 week

⦁ Turmeric up 5 - 7% within 1 week

 

CASSIA/CINNAMON

 

The next two weeks will start a new harvest, but the market demand is still high, so it is forecasted that the market will continue to move sideways with little change in March and April.

 

STAR ANISE

 

Sudden demand from different countries such as the USA / EU / China has made the price of anise rose 25-30% within 1 week. The prices are currently high and there will be little chance of a decrease in the short term as China remains the main consumer market and demand is high.

 

TURMERIC

 

Price up 5 - 7% and foreseen up significantly this year due to huge demand from other different countries such as EU / India... Crop this year likely not good both India and Vietnam when farmers reduced their plantation.

 

 

IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT No. 10/21, 1 - 5 March 2021

 

LOCAL MARKET REPORT

Market this week showed a mixed response with only Indonesia black pepper was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,675 per Mt. Despite Farmers in Lampung were reported keeping hold of their crop, Indonesia black pepper was reported with 4% deficit when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,339 per Mt. The decrease of Indonesia's black pepper also could be contributed to the weakening of Indonesia Rupiah against the US Dollar (IDR 14,322 @ USD 1), recording a 1% depreciation. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with a slight increase of 1% as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,469 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable, averaging at USD 2,484 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,948 per Mt for white pepper. Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 8% and 15% respectively as compared to the p revious week, averaging at USD 2,420 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,803 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,754 per Mt. China white pepper was traded at an average of USD 5,075 per Mt.

INTERNATIONAL  MARKET REPORT

International market was also reported with a mixed response as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 3% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,948 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with 4% deficit when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,835 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 5,211 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 3%, 3% and 2% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,155 per Mt, USD 3,236 per Mt and USD 4,800 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was traded at an average of USD 5,275 per Mt.

US market as well as European markets were reported stable with a slight increasing trend. Muntok white pepper in US Market for CF March/April was reported in the range of USD 5.300 - 5,500 per Mt.

IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT - HIGHLIGHT ON BRAZIL FEBRUARY 2021

 

HIGHLIGHT ON BRAZIL

Production and Productivity

Brazil as one of the major pepper producing and exporting countries known for its Black Pepper, has a more competitive price as opposed to other origins. Brazil cultivates its pepper partially in Para State (Pa) North of Brazil and Espirito Santos (Es) South of Brazil. Furthermore, Brazil has also surpassed Indonesia as the second largest pepper producer in the world with estimated quantity of 95,000 Mt in 2020.

During 2009-2020 the area under pepper cultivation in Brazil had fluctuated with an increasing trend. Between 2009-2016, area under pepper cultivation in Brazil saw a decrease by 6% to a total of 25,660 Ha from 27,415 Ha in 2009. The area under pepper cultivation in Brazil saw an increasing trend during 2016-2020 with an increase of 20% to a total of 30,700 Ha. In the course of 12 years between 2009-2020 total area under pepper cultivation in Brazil recorded an increase by 12% . Furthermore, in 2020 the area under pepper cultivation in Brazil was estimated to decrease by 1% as compared to 2019 to a total of 30,700 Ha. Whilst, for the year 2021 the area of pepper cultivation was projected to be stable and unchanged.

Brazil production of pepper during 2009-2020 was reported fluctuating with a rather positive trend. In the course 12 years since 2009 pepper production in Brazil was reported to have recorded an increase of 133% as it estimated a total of 95,000 Mt in 2020. The highest production of Brazil pepper in the course of 12 years between 2009-2020 was reported in 2020 with an estimation of 95,000 Mt whilst the lowest production occurred in 2012 with 32,000 Mt. However, in the year 2021 production of Brazil pepper was projected to decrease by 5% when compared with 2020 to a total of 90,000 Mt.

Pepper productivity in Brazil in the course of 12 years between 2009-2020 was reported to be fluctuated with a rather positive trend. During 2009-2020, the lowest pepper productivity in Brazil was reported in 2010 with 1,462 Kg per Ha while the highest productivity was reported in 2020 which was estimated at 3,094 Kg per Mt. The lowest decrease of pepper productivity in Brazil was reported to occur in 2016 as it recorded a 19% loss when compared with the previous year. Whilst the highest increase of pepper productivity was reported in 2017 which recorded a 45% increase as opposed to the previous year. For the year 2020, Brazil pepper productivity was estimated with an increase of 20% as opposed to 2019 to 3,094 Kg per Ha. Whilst in 2021 Brazil pepper productivity was projected with a decrease by 5% to 2,932 Kg per Ha .

Pepper Export from Brazil

Brazil, known as the second largest pepper producer in the world, had managed to take the second largest pepper exporter position from Indonesia in 2017. Since 2009 until 2020 there had been a significant increase of 151% or 53,986 Mt in the quantity of pepper exported from Brazil which was mainly dominated with black pepper as it contributed to 94% of the total export figures . The highest pepper export occurred in 2020 with 89,756 Mt whilst the lowest export occurred in 2012 with 29,129 Mt. In 2020, pepper export from Brazil was reported at 89,756 Mt which comprised of 86,166 Mt of black pepper and 3,590 Mt of white pepper. Thus, recording an increase of 6% as opposed to the previous year.

The number of pepper exports from Brazil had reportedly fluctuated in the last 2 years. The total export by Brazil in the past 24 months was reported at 174,432 Mt with total value as high as USD 364.9 Million. The average pepper export from Brazil was reported to be 7,268 Mt per month. The highest pepper export of Brazil occurred in October 2019 which reached 11,119 Mt whilst the lowest was reported in July 2019 with 3,046 Mt (Table 10). The high level of exports during that period (October) correlated closely to Brazil harvest season.

Pepper from Brazil is exported to various countries around the world (Table 11). In 2020, the top 10 country of destinations for Brazilian pepper were reported to be Germany with 13,281 Mt (Contributed to 15% of Brazil's total pepper export in 2020), Viet Nam with 12,173 Mt (14%), United States of America with 11,993 Mt (13%), Morocco with 7,486 Mt (8%), Egypt with 6,728 Mt (7%), United Arab Emirates with 5,117 (6%), India with 4,251 Mt (5%), Pakistan with 3,650 Mt (4%), Netherlands with 2,870 Mt (3%) and Mexico with 2,565 (2.9%).

Pepper Export Price

Brazil pepper export price had fluctuated significantly in the past three years which could be attributed to the world supply of pepper significantly exceeding the global demand. In 2018, the average export price for Brazilian pepper was reported at USD 2,835 per Mt with the highest prices recorded in January with USD 3,509 per Mt whilst the lowest price was reported in November with USD 2,195 per Mt.

In 2019, the average export price of Brazilian pepper was reported at USD 2,148 per Mt, recording a decreased of 23% as compared to 2018. In 2019, the highest price was reported to have reached USD 2,316 per Mt (July 2019) recording a deficit by 25% as compared to the same period in 2018. Whilst, the lowest price was reported in November with USD 2,002 per Mt, recording a deficit by 9% as compared to the same period in 2018.

In 2020, the average export price of Brazilian pepper was reported at USD 2,082 per Mt, recording a 3% decreased as compared to 2019. In 2020, the highest price was reported to have reached USD 2,412 per Mt (December 2020) recording an increase of 19% as compared to the same period in 2019. Whilst, the lowest price was reported in June with USD 1,888 per Mt, recording a deficit by 17% as compared to the same period in 2019 .

Source:

IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT No. 09/21, 22 - 26 February 2021

 

LOCAL MARKET REPORT

Market this week showed a mixed response with only Indonesia was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,545 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,442 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,424 per Mt for white pepper. The decrease of Indonesia's pepper could be contributed to the weakening of Indonesia Rupiah against the US Dollar (IDR 14,129 @ USD 1), recording a 1% depreciation. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable, averaging at USD 2,492 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,962 per Mt for white pepper. As market resume after T?t Holiday, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 3% and 8% respectively as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,246 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,302 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black p epper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,682 per Mt.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REPORT

International market was also reported with a mixed response as India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 2% when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,822 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with 1% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 2,955 per Mt for black pepper and USD 5,164 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 6%, 6% and 5% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 3,075 per Mt, USD 3,156 per Mt and USD 4,170 per Mt respectively.

VIETNAM PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 22ND 2021 – WEEK 8

 

 

 

Vietnam exported 16.896 tons in January 2021 with a turnover of 48.72 million $, down 18.54% in volume and 8.67% in value compared to the previous month, but up 14.43 % in volume and 35.38% in value compared with the same period last year. Average export price in the at 2,884 USD/ton, up 4.23% compared to the average export price of December 2020. Due to the Lunar New Year in February, the number of exports is forecast to decrease compared to January 2021 and reach around 13.500 tons.

Last week the prices have seen an impressive increase from 53,000 VND and reach 55,500 VND today, equivalent to a 4.5% increase within a week. Due to the delivery deadline in Feb, processors and exporters are increasing buying to ensure shipment on time. Currently, the higher demand than before last 2 week, pushing the market prices up slightly in many different areas in Vietnam.

Meanwhile, many agents/collectors have not reopened after Lunar New Year, so the business in domestic markets is still very slow, raw material not profuse on the market.

The weather in key pepper areas is quite favorable, so it is expected that farmers will focus their harvest and plentiful supply in the next few weeks.

The situation of freight rates from Vietnam to EU/US/ASIA/AFRICA is forecast to continue to be tense and there is still no sign of a discount from shipping lines, freight rate is unlikely to decrease as expected in March.